Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting summary of Gazproms position regarding the Gas cluster fuck 

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn I have a new job, and with it a new pension.

Just received the paperwork through the mail this morning, I'm with Standard Life and this is their product.

Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3

 

 

 

From what I can see, it's a fund made up of funds.

My question to you is, do they skim commission on the funds in the funds as well as the discounted 0.4% per year?

You seem to be an expert on this, my first impression is that it looks shit and should ask HR to redirect my pension contributions to my SIPP. If that's an option.

 

 

 

Looking at the makeup its trying to be a 40 bond 60 equity type fund.Yes the funds will charge commisions inside the fund then the platform charge on top,all IFAs have this set up but they add on their commision as well.Its funds fees and then platform fees.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's in the wrong place (Russia) and idiot governments across Europe neglected to sign contracts with them while it was cheap, instead becoming reliant on non contractual top ups while they go off and build windmills that don't turn in a still autumn while shutting down coal and nuclear.  And yes, a child with crayons could have seen this coming.

Rather ironic that an ex-Communist country can `play` the Capitalists better at their own game.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Draft Kings have made a $20 billion bid for Entain. Wow!

I sold the last of my stock for ~£19 a share a month or so ago

Edit: rumoured to be in the £25 a share range. Although Draft Kings stock is down 6% at present so maybe not quite that generous.

Another disaster from our government.We had the best gambling companies in the world,but the government decided to hammer them with tax and because a few drug dealers lose their profits in the slots.Now we have lost the whole industry nearly to the Yanks.

[No One]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looking at the makeup its trying to be a 40 bond 60 equity type fund.Yes the funds will charge commisions inside the fund then the platform charge on top,all IFAs have this set up but they add on their commision as well.Its funds fees and then platform fees.

Thank you for confirming, sounds like a bad deal. I'll speak to HR and try to get them to move to my SIPP

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

up 100 quid. YAY!

This is a lot more fun than having to think about the collapse of Australian democracy...

You won't be so smug when you discover that all you can spend you gains on is Empire gin! :-)

[spygirl]

ECB official and OECD warn of rising inflation risks

Surging energy prices and supply bottlenecks could feed into demand for higher wages

https://www.ft.com/content/55300c7b-ab06-40c4-a5f4-ed02ddb31374

 

Bundesbank's and German population will be s reaming for rate rises.

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its actually pleasing when you have to go back and look over mistakes and try to understand them.Im finding most of mine the last few years have been simple timing issues.Ladders really helped,but didnt avoid entering too early in some areas.

We've had a really good year and a bit since the scam demic started.I was saying to my mum that if I'd been offered this portfolio at the price we're in at five years ago,I'd have taken it.Socttish play included.

Ref that point on reflection,I think it's so improtant in any walk of life to relfect on what went right with something and what could have gone better.

The scottish play is a case in point.Took a shellacking,went away got a better grip on finances,developed the coma scores to run alongside 'spray n pray' and it thanks to those two things(and the many things I've learned on here besides,that we're nicely spread out across sectors but loaded up where the balance sheet/price value is.

Similarly,we took a hard loss on Northern Rock back in 07.Reflected hard,got to grips with fractional reserve lending,sold the rest of our bank stocks and watched them tank 6 months later.

This thread has had more than it's fair share of winners but I proabably learned the msot from the scottish play

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't understand how Evergrande is systemic when they owe their debts in toilet paper Yuan, and their business is internal to China. To me it's just a totally unsurprising anecdote as to why I don't invest in China. You can't trust any of the reported financials.

Quite.I was looking for a nice chart I'd seen focusing on US corporate bond yields but found the Holger post made the same point.

I think a BK deflationary wave will need to be cnetred on the dollar if it's to happen.Most likely I think their junk bond market where yields are eye wateringly low compared to UST's.

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod

you got a view on the Shell deal in the permian?Market liked it.Much as I've got Oct calls I want to run up in Shell,I don't.Go woke,go broke etc.But I don't have any appreciation in terms of price etc.

https://www.ft.com/content/33e48318-91ab-47e4-88f3-72986b0a85f6

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Politics aside, I think Kwasi Kwarteng will be the next Tory party leader/PM (heard it here first!). His current energy brief might be a poison chalice, but actually he has a first class academic brain and it looks to me like he's being covertly groomed for high office. Not a two horse race of course, but Kwarteng is an impressive speaker and thinker, whereas Sunak is a very damp (eat-out-to-help-out) squib. 

I don't vote conservative, but the conservatives are i think the governing party for the foreseeable, so its interesting to conjecture who might be next after Boris. Plus it kinda helps to inform who Labour may install next (after their very time-limited current leader; a 'Sir' Keir was never going to cut through). Though i expect the 'media darling' Burnham is pretty much a shoe-in.   

...but of course, as@DurhamBornregularly reminds us, the politics play is mostly a charade. And our 'leaders' always end up enacting the economic script.  

...or perhaps neither, as our political system may be reformed and become a `new normal`?....one can but dream/hope :-(

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Covid the body punch and Evergrande the upper cut?

...and I suppose the third will be the booster vaccines..."Drop your trousers, don't worry, just a little prick!"

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, No One said:

Thank you for confirming, sounds like a bad deal. I'll speak to HR and try to get them to move to my SIPP

Its not a bad spread and better than a lot iv seen in workplaces but my fees in my SIPP are tiny and over the longer term that makes a big difference,with an IFA the difference is around 1.6% a year to what i pay,incredible compounding that even is you equal returns.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

ECB official and OECD warn of rising inflation risks

Surging energy prices and supply bottlenecks could feed into demand for higher wages

https://www.ft.com/content/55300c7b-ab06-40c4-a5f4-ed02ddb31374

 

Bundesbank's and German population will be s reaming for rate rises.

Like that "could lead to higher wage demands ",western democracies are bust without increases and thats exactly what they are wanting,a big uplift that increases tax revenues.UK sold a green ilt today 13 years i think at 0.89% coupon and BOE said it was ok to include in any QE,more monetize miss-allocated liquidity.It was a £10billion auction and £100billion was bid,nuts.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Politics aside, I think Kwasi Kwarteng will be the next Tory party leader/PM (heard it here first!). His current energy brief might be a poison chalice, but actually he has a first class academic brain and it looks to me like he's being covertly groomed for high office. Not a two horse race of course, but Kwarteng is an impressive speaker and thinker, whereas Sunak is a very damp (eat-out-to-help-out) squib. 

I don't vote conservative, but the conservatives are i think the governing party for the foreseeable, so its interesting to conjecture who might be next after Boris. Plus it kinda helps to inform who Labour may install next (after their very time-limited current leader; a 'Sir' Keir was never going to cut through). Though i expect the 'media darling' Burnham is pretty much a shoe-in.   

...but of course, as@DurhamBornregularly reminds us, the politics play is mostly a charade. And our 'leaders' always end up enacting the economic script.  

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

[HousePriceMania]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Laddering definitely helps, but I'm not a trader... so i employ the rather basic thesis of Marin Katusa - 'Invest like a (predatory) crocodile, and let the market (your prey) come to you!!'

Of course, as discussed on here recently, the danger is that whilst waiting patiently for say the BK to arrive, the ravages of time/inflation may first cause you (or your capitol) to go extinct!?!

 

https://www.cbc.ca/kidscbc2/the-feed/5-animals-with-prehistoric-ancestors

Modern crocodiles and alligators are almost unchanged from their ancient ancestors of the Cretaceous period (about 145–66 million years ago).

Crocs have outlived everything pretty much.

 

[Sidd]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Sidd, but can i ask is Avino Silver and Gold a long term hold for you or is it mainly a speculative buy? I ask because last time i looked Avino silver and gold had no producing mines. And unfortunately that is one of my red-flags in terms of evaluating risk, simply because i don't have great knowledge of the sector so am pretty risk averse.

Avino in particular was more on the speculative side for me, specifically for the reason you mentioned. I think I will look to sell most of my smaller holding in it but retain some, as I think it was Durhamborn who once said that when the sector runs fundamentals are less important and everything with silver in its name will go up.

[Loki]

Float like a crocodile, sting like a margin call

OR something

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

I posted that and then read that Sir Keir is alienating the unions trying change Labour's voting system. Burnham might get in before the next election.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58637086

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58644894

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

Both main parties are divided and need to sort out their internal factions (Tory cabinet infighting is why I think the covid policies have been so chaotic). Interesting you mention Truss as she, along with Priti Patel, Raab and Kwarteng are founding members of the 'Britain Unchained' group of Thatcherites, and I believe this group's thinking will dominate Tory direction going forward. However my base case is that when the public are faced with the sheer size and scope of the struggles ahead, plus the realisation of how they have been misled and lied to in the past, that will enable a new political party to emerge. I am still undecided as to whether a new party can win power outright, or just force weak coalitions. But I guess that by say 2030 the new priorities of the global economic and monetary whirlwind will sweep aside most national politics, and render it almost irrelevant. My interest in what happens politically between now and this decade-end is mostly in regard to understanding and in the hope that we can  encourage and support leaders who will at least attempt to safeguard our British institutions and rights.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Apologies if this has already been posted.  I've spent 2 hours reading the last week of posts, and didn't see it, or find it on the site's search function... but there's so much, it's possible I missed something.

Max Keiser.  From last week.  Show is titled, "The Coming Great Deflation."

0- 7.10 Max & Stacey discuss small countries turning to Bitcoin because of lack of dollars to buy imports.

7.10 - 12:30  Max & Stacey discuss how China ain't doing so bad, really.

12:40 - onward, Max Keiser talks to Michael Pento, about his latest letter to followers, entitled "The Great Deflation of 2022".

Nothing here is news to the thread.  But there's a talking head, on MSM, saying what we're thinking.
 

 

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Rather ironic that an ex-Communist country can `play` the Capitalists better at their own game.

Russia sold gas to the west all through the cold war, and used the dollars earned to buy weapons to use against the USA and the west.

It's a theatre...

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

Nah.

Eyebrows problem is that hes a moron. Anyone whos sat near him and listened is instantly anti Burnham.

Labours problem is that is are devoid of any leader. And everyone hates everyone.

Their best bet is Dan Jarvis. At least the voters like him.

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

Resurgence of the LibDems until they `bottle` it again, and then go into the wilderness for another 15 years?