Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Both main parties are divided and need to sort out their internal factions (Tory cabinet infighting is why I think the covid policies have been so chaotic). Interesting you mention Truss as she, along with Priti Patel, Raab and Kwarteng are founding members of the 'Britain Unchained' group of Thatcherites, and I believe this group's thinking will dominate Tory direction going forward. However my base case is that when the public are faced with the sheer size and scope of the struggles ahead, plus the realisation of how they have been misled and lied to in the past, that will enable a new political party to emerge. I am still undecided as to whether a new party can win power outright, or just force weak coalitions. But I guess that by say 2030 the new priorities of the global economic and monetary whirlwind will sweep aside most national politics, and render it almost irrelevant. My interest in what happens politically between now and this decade-end is mostly in regard to understanding and in the hope that we can  encourage and support leaders who will at least attempt to safeguard our British institutions and rights.

I do hope you are right...but then I also believe in the tooth fairy! :-(

[Harley]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Their best bet is Dan Jarvis. At least the voters like him.

Only because no-one's heard of him.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Apologies if this has already been posted. 

Your good, cheers!

[Hancock]

8 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Apologies if this has already been posted.  I've spent 2 hours reading the last week of posts, and didn't see it, or find it on the site's search function... but there's so much, it's possible I missed something.

Max Keiser.  From last week.  Show is titled, "The Coming Great Deflation."

0- 7.10 Max & Stacey discuss small countries turning to Bitcoin because of lack of dollars to buy imports.

7.10 - 12:30  Max & Stacey discuss how China ain't doing so bad, really.

12:40 - onward, Max Keiser talks to Michael Pento, about his latest letter to followers, entitled "The Great Deflation of 2022".

Nothing here is news to the thread.  But there's a talking head, on MSM, saying what we're thinking.
 

 

He's entertaining, but usually wrong.

[M S E Refugee]

Any thoughts on Thungela Resources?

Keep hearing chatter of how it's making money hand over fist and that it could pay a £1 divi per share.

I have bought a few of their shares lately.

[Hancock]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

It no longer matters (probably never did), they're all identical and for the rentier economy, unaffordable housing, mass immigration, huge govt etc... 

Most of them should be locked up for treason.

[Hancock]

BP is steaming ahead ... looks like i'll be holding out for a dip of sorts, as i've bottled the other 2.

Come on FED tighten faster than we expect today to get this crash in motion.

[planit]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

He's entertaining, but usually wrong.

 

And now he is so deep into BitCoin that he can't be trusted for an honest opinion. 

He is a vested interest not a commentator.

 

[jamtomorrow]

33 minutes ago, Hancock said:

BP is steaming ahead ... looks like i'll be holding out for a dip of sorts, as i've bottled the other 2.

Come on FED tighten faster than we expect today to get this crash in motion.

Same for me with the stock that shall not be mentioned. I'd even consider buying above the March 2020 price, now they're changing their tune on nuclear.

Bit of white smoke puffing out the chimney of today's politburo meet would certainly be nice.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liz Truss is easily their best Minister i think.Hugely talented and would get a massive vote from the members i think if she got enough backing.They would push Kwasi as well though and i do think he is a better Tory than most in the government.Burnham will be the next Labour disaster i think.Win back some seats but nowhere near enough.Tories will only lose once a new right of centre party forms,incredible when you think how bad this government is.

Agreed.Labour have lost support in huge chunks of the working(and I mean working)class.Brexit/Trans rights/immigration etc etc.I can't see them ever getting back in.

This set up is ripe for a populist right party.Thus far,there are a number of disparate groups milling around-Reform,Heritage(David Kurten,very socially conservative),Reclaim,Ukip.

At some point they will form up together(except maybe Heritage who have a hardline Pro Life manifesto commitment) and under a leader who can unify the coalition,they will do untold damage to the Tories.

Our electoral system covers up huge structural issues because it's normally only worth voting for the top two and supporting small parties is disincentivized.

12 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been thinking Burnham will be the next Labour leader and he will be more of a problem for the Tories than Sir Keir Rammer, he probably won't get his chance at the next election though.

It's hard to see who they could pick that would make meaningful inroads into the problems they have in red wall seats.Burnham does look a good bet for them.

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think hes decent,but their policies are toxic to most voters.However given the inflation in the system and mess we are in it depends who the public blame.More than half get their income from government in one way or another so we are entering the area where the left wins until you get systemic collapse.Labours front bench is the worst of any party in our history by a long way though ,but the Tories run the risk of a real right of centre party starting to gain ground and destroy their vote base.

What would worry me if I was Labour(I'm a long time Ukip voter until the last couple of years) is that with all these people needing the 'free ' money,they still can't win.

Systemic collapse is coming and then I suspect all hell will break loose later in the 20's with both hard right and left rising.

11 hours ago, JMD said:

Both main parties are divided and need to sort out their internal factions (Tory cabinet infighting is why I think the covid policies have been so chaotic). Interesting you mention Truss as she, along with Priti Patel, Raab and Kwarteng are founding members of the 'Britain Unchained' group of Thatcherites, and I believe this group's thinking will dominate Tory direction going forward. However my base case is that when the public are faced with the sheer size and scope of the struggles ahead, plus the realisation of how they have been misled and lied to in the past, that will enable a new political party to emerge. I am still undecided as to whether a new party can win power outright, or just force weak coalitions. But I guess that by say 2030 the new priorities of the global economic and monetary whirlwind will sweep aside most national politics, and render it almost irrelevant. My interest in what happens politically between now and this decade-end is mostly in regard to understanding and in the hope that we can  encourage and support leaders who will at least attempt to safeguard our British institutions and rights.

It looks very likely from a historical perpsective.A new party only needs30% of the votes in the right seats and it can rule. Also,as economies deleverage or become unstable,voters tend towards extremes historically.

Blair won 2005 with 35% of the vote

https://www.ukpolitical.info/2005.htm

More intriguing was the Scottish aspect of teh result,the SNP won 45% of the vote and got 81% of the seats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Same for me with the stock that shall not be mentioned. I'd even consider buying above the March 2020 price, now they're changing their tune on nuclear.

Bit of white smoke puffing out the chimney of today's politburo meet would certainly be nice.

Yes there are so many reasons why the stock market/economy could implode .... and the 1 reason why it may not i.e. they've printed like never before, is possibly the more important one.

Will sit tight though and see what happens in the coming weeks.

I should have had the sense to put my house money into the markets in March 2020/ October 2020, though i did think shutting the economy would guarantee a HPC.

[Heart's Ease]

Quick log/coal anecdotal. 

Just settled up for latest delivery. 50p increase from coal supplier has gone onto a bag of excel smokeless (now £9). £10 on a crate of logs (now £199). The full 50p increase passed on to the end customer (me) for coal. £9 of the £10 passed on to me for logs.

Had a bit of a chat around business. Slow at the moment due to warm weather. Talked gas shortage and their logistics. Their biomass comes from Russia, logs from Poland and Lithuania, all by container into Teeside. 

Need to make more space for more wood I think.

 

[harp]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Any thoughts on Thungela Resources?

Keep hearing chatter of how it's making money hand over fist and that it could pay a £1 divi per share.

I have bought a few of their shares lately.

Someone mentioned them months ago. Since then a very nice run up! 
 

I really should have the courage of other people’s convictions! 😕

[reformed nice guy]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Russia sold gas to the west all through the cold war, and used the dollars earned to buy weapons to use against the USA and the west.

It's a theatre...

A lot of the parts needed for the west to make fancy missles are made in Russia as well

Both sides have a military industrial complex to feed

[sancho panza]

On 21/09/2021 at 12:32, JMD said:

Definitely agree CP. I think that future history-books will write 'it' was obvious - as plain as the sun in the sky perhaps! ...How they will laugh at us, and our modern-day carbon-miasma theories!!

Gentle souls like Piers Corbyn and Neil Oliver (both opposite ends of the political spectrum) repeatedly warn that the emperor has no clothes, but they are ridiculed. Not trying to be obtuse - the whole debate around man-made global-warming is a glaring example of the creeping cancer that is 'un-critical thinking', not to mention mass hysterias of all kinds, all of which must surely be early signs of a 'turning-point' in human history... But whether that 'turning' be a Neil Howe 4th-Turning (good?), or a WEF Reset (bad?), who knows?

 

But btw, has anyone seen Neil Oliver on GBNews? I have only seen clips of him via the recommended links Google keeps throwing at me, but he seems to be going full tin-foil hat. Perhaps i'm being unfair, given my own remarks above. But he is a very eloquent chap i must say.

 

In laymens terms,whats the sun spots thing all about?

21 hours ago, No One said:

Can anyone take a peek at Stan Life Active Plus III Pn S3 and tell me if it's shit?

Any of these managed funds-you'll be losing the mangmenet fees  for the ETF's and funds they invest in,then you'll be losing the fees you pay to your own manager.If the average divi on the FTSE is 3%,then you might be losing between 30%-50% of it in fees.

Unless we were looking for exposure to a sector we didn't have a clue about eg the far east,then I'd always avoid management fees or invest directly in the ETF itself.

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Need to make more space for more wood I think.

I used some breeze blocks and 3x2's and 4x2's to make some quick log cradles.  Simple but clever.

Like this, only bigger and about six of them.  Tarp over the top.

Yours probably come gift wrapped for that price!  Or am I just lucky!

[sancho panza]

22 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Quick log/coal anecdotal. 

Just settled up for latest delivery. 50p increase from coal supplier has gone onto a bag of excel smokeless (now £9). £10 on a crate of logs (now £199). The full 50p increase passed on to the end customer (me) for coal. £9 of the £10 passed on to me for logs.

Had a bit of a chat around business. Slow at the moment due to warm weather. Talked gas shortage and their logistics. Their biomass comes from Russia, logs from Poland and Lithuania, all by container into Teeside. 

Need to make more space for more wood I think.

 

Purchased our burner yesterday.Many thanks to all on here who offered advice,particualrly @Harley for some in depth stuff.Much appreciated.

Nice to see oilies board showing some solid gains.

 

 

[Hancock]

Article about keeping your powder dry for the impending "deflationary bust". From 2010!

https://moneyweek.com/7751/deflationary-economy-02601

Russell Napier saying the same in 2016.

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Purchased our burner yesterday.Many thanks to all on here who offered advice,particualrly @Harley for some in depth stuff.Much appreciated.

Nice to see oilies board showing some solid gains.

 

 

Despite having about about 1/3 of my SIPP in oilies, i'm wanting to see them crash and burn!

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Apologies if this has already been posted.  I've spent 2 hours reading the last week of posts, and didn't see it, or find it on the site's search function... but there's so much, it's possible I missed something.

Max Keiser.  From last week.  Show is titled, "The Coming Great Deflation."

0- 7.10 Max & Stacey discuss small countries turning to Bitcoin because of lack of dollars to buy imports.

7.10 - 12:30  Max & Stacey discuss how China ain't doing so bad, really.

12:40 - onward, Max Keiser talks to Michael Pento, about his latest letter to followers, entitled "The Great Deflation of 2022".

Nothing here is news to the thread.  But there's a talking head, on MSM, saying what we're thinking.
 

 

It's easy to dsimiss Keiser but Pento makes a lot of soild points that have been made on here regarding the possiblitiy of a credit event occuring via (take your pick)biggest junk bond market in hsitory with tightest spreads over UST's in hsitory,margin debt,house price to income ratios at record, etc etc......

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Article about keeping your powder dry for the impending "deflationary bust". From 2010!

https://moneyweek.com/7751/deflationary-economy-02601

Russell Napier saying the same in 2016.

 

amazing how many really intelligent commetators got it wrong over the last decade timing wise,I was in line with these deflatioanry calls from 2010.Look what happened.

A lesson in making your own decisons and follwoing the price action.One of the reasons we're still long this market now despite me seeing a deflationary event in the coming months/year.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

amazing how many really intelligent commetators got it wrong over the last decade timing wise.A lesson in making your own decisons.

The only commentators that get heard, are the ones calling for impending doom.

Still think there could be a dip sometime soon ... if there is then i'll buy in. If not then i'll come up with a plan B.

Thinking about buy half a house and borrow the rest, and rent it out for if i ever come back to Blighty, then i'll be willing to take more risks with the rest. Against my ideology, but fucking people over seems to be the way of the Englishman!

 

 

[Noallegiance]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

amazing how many really intelligent commetators got it wrong over the last decade timing wise,I was in line with these deflatioanry calls from 2010.Look what happened.

A lesson in making your own decisons and follwoing the price action.One of the reasons we're still long this market now despite me seeing a deflationary event in the coming months/year.

I've seen this addressed by a few people recently. Along the lines of - macro forecasts look wrong for a looooooooooong time and then suddenly become extremely right.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

27 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Purchased our burner yesterday.Many thanks to all on here who offered advice,particualrly @Harley for some in depth stuff.Much appreciated.

Nice to see oilies board showing some solid gains.

 

 

Time for the obligatory @DurhamBorn post about pension funds selling these at the bottom. A quick check and my cheapest BP purchase was at 191.78p in October last year. Repsol was 5.224 euros on the same day. Didn't buy any Gazprom until November at 4.892 USD. Even the earlier purchases of RDSB are around even now and up when you average in later purchases. Then you have divvies on top.

The pension funds going woke with necessary industries is going to cost a lot of ordinary workers.

[Castlevania]

28 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Time for the obligatory @DurhamBorn post about pension funds selling these at the bottom. A quick check and my cheapest BP purchase was at 191.78p in October last year. Repsol was 5.224 euros on the same day. Didn't buy any Gazprom until November at 4.892 USD. Even the earlier purchases of RDSB are around even now and up when you average in later purchases. Then you have divvies on top.

The pension funds going woke with necessary industries is going to cost a lot of ordinary workers.

Some of the virtue signalling is off the scale. One of the government pension schemes in Maine in the US proudly announced a few months ago that they were to divest from all fossil fuels. Great, yet 70% of all houses in Maine are off grid for heating (they typically use heating oil) and there doesn’t seem to be any plan to convert that to anything green.