Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Wheeler]

7 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's a 'diversified investment' that happens to be following the 'money flow' just like the stock market is.....

a hedge is 100% inversely correlated to the vulnerable asset

I can tell I'm not getting through, I'll just give up now 

It's a hedge against fiat collapsing, in a similar vein to gold. The main difference is that the price isn't being suppressed by the big players as there isn't much of a futures or paper market. 

I'm hoping that the rise of the bitcoin market cap will put pressure on the investment banks to let gold rise to counter it. 

Disclosure: I'm 5% in crypto, 12% fiat and 65% in gold and silver; the rest is in other reflation assets.

[jamtomorrow]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Jamtomorrow, I agree btc is an insurance/hedge on future money, and i neglected to mention any of that important stuff in my btc post. I also like the risk/speculation element. However, im not a big risk taker and so aim to trim some of my profits, 'de-risking' my investment in order to effectively give myself a free-ride (when/if personal price target is reached, which might be near future given recent price action). You say you dont see it as an investment, but if btc did turn out to be a ponzi scheme, absolutely no damage done. I view this as kinda like having jam-today and jam-tomorrow (excuse bad pun). You say you wont be exciting anytime soon, but have you considered doing this?

(i've always liked the analogy of 'a player taking chips off the table', as that for me describes an individual gaming/manipulating/controlling(?) 'the investment system' for their own maximum benefit)  

Back when I was thinking in investment terms, yes, definitely - plan was to start slicing once it got as big as PM allocation.

Not now though.

9 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's a 'diversified investment' that happens to be following the 'money flow' just like the stock market is.....

a hedge is 100% inversely correlated to the vulnerable asset

I can tell I'm not getting through, I'll just give up now

I hear ya, I just don't think we know yet whether that correlation holds for higher market caps (when reflexive effects become potentially much more important). But if you're saying you know for sure it will hold, that's great - you don't need insurance!

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I'm hoping that the rise of the bitcoin market cap will put pressure on the investment banks to let gold rise to counter it

k that's an interesting thought, any evidence that will happen?

To be fair Gold has been a shit 'investment' over the last 10 years cos yes dem nasty bankers control the price.....

It's an interesting trading tool cos you can often read where the fookers are gonna take the price 

[Noallegiance]

28 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I'm hoping that the rise of the bitcoin market cap will put pressure on the investment banks to let gold rise to counter it. 

Interesting theory from Mr Schiff today suggesting that Bitcoin taking the spotlight from gold does central banks a favour because they don't consider Bitcoin a threat. If Bitcoin keeps the real threat (gold) price down for a while then there's less indication that the monetary taps being smashed off the pipes is inflationary. 

Which, ironically and to the chagrin of 'BTC to end central banking' fans, would mean that a BTC bubble helps central bankers.

[nirvana]

24 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I hear ya, I just don't think we know yet whether that correlation holds for higher market caps (when reflexive effects become potentially much more important)

yeah it's interesting to think of bitcoin in terms of market cap, that implies it's an asset and not a currency....

In terms of currencies, Fiber or EURUSD is the most widely traded with a daily volume of 575 billion USD

AND interestingly Bitcoin has gone from 364 billion in November to 597 billion on Jan 2.......so it now surpasses Fiber and that will explain it's meteoric rise....hmmm interesting lol

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Which, ironically and to the chagrin of 'BTC to end central banking' fans, would mean that a BTC bubble helps central bankers.

Exactly, early believers like me used to fly 'End the FED' flags, nowadays your average shitcoin investor looks like this

 

[Talking Monkey]

13 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

yeah it's interesting to think of bitcoin in terms of market cap, that implies it's an asset and not a currency....

In terms of currencies, Fiber or EURUSD is the most widely traded with a daily volume of 575 billion USD

AND interestingly Bitcoin has gone from 364 billion in November to 597 billion on Jan 2.......so it now surpasses Fiber and that will explain it's meteoric rise....hmmm interesting lol

But would bitcoin market cap equate to eurusd daily volume aren't they two different things. What's the daily volume on bitcoin. Also bitcoin market cap is actually lower than that epic piece of shit bubble stock Tesla

[Wheeler]

59 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

k that's an interesting thought, any evidence that will happen?

To be fair Gold has been a shit 'investment' over the last 10 years cos yes dem nasty bankers control the price.....

It's an interesting trading tool cos you can often read where the fookers are gonna take the price 

I can't claim it as an original thought, but then who can for anything discussed? I've been racking my brain over where I heard or read about it and can now credit Luke Gromen with the idea:

Should be keyed up to the macro part discussing gold and bitcoin.

 

[nirvana]

22 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

But would bitcoin market cap equate to eurusd daily volume aren't they two different things. What's the daily volume on bitcoin

yeah that's what I was trying to say.....they're 2 different things, 'shitcoins' ain't coins and ain't currencies...they're more like Gold......you can't spend em over the counter you need to exchange em.....daily volume dunno, I'm trying to ignore it tbh 

Anyway listening to that Schiffy on youtube and interestingly he says that the market spiked higher yesterday cos as soon as Mr Market knew the Democrats had won, it realised The FED would be printing EVEN MORE MONEY!!!!

KERCHING for stonks!!

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Interesting theory from Mr Schiff today suggesting that Bitcoin taking the spotlight from gold

good find there fella, what's even more interesting is he says proper 'Hedge Funds' are actually 'playing' their bitcoin clients cos they'll take 20% off em even when it all turns to shit 

Right no more shitcoin talk in this thread chaps, now behave! 

[DoINeedOne]

Small and medium sized businesses are being especially hard hit by the continual lockdowns, so Vodafone UK is smart to push the boat out for them.

The press release talks of giving small businesses free broadband for 2021. While this is technically true, it only comes if they commit to a three year broadband contract, the first year of which they don’t get charged for. That’s still a decent deal and will presumably come in handy for those many businesses struggling to pay their bills in this unique time.

 

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Small and medium sized businesses are being especially hard hit by the continual lockdowns, so Vodafone UK is smart to push the boat out for them.

The press release talks of giving small businesses free broadband for 2021. While this is technically true, it only comes if they commit to a three year broadband contract, the first year of which they don’t get charged for. That’s still a decent deal and will presumably come in handy for those many businesses struggling to pay their bills in this unique time.

 

Then boom, push the inflation cost on to a captive customer for 24 months. Giveth, taketh away!

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The first hedge I ever used was a bet on Greece in the Final of Euro 2000 and something when I had Portugal in the work sweepstake.

I wish I'd edged 0-0 when years ago I backed Liverpool to beat Sheff Wed at Anfield. Liverpool hit the post a dozen times had 18 cleared off the line etc. The morning after because it had skinted me I had to go to the job centre. Started a job the Monday after but didn't get paid in time to have anything to put on Liverpool when they easily won the replay away at Sheffield. That was the end of my first spell of pro puntering! It was a shocker of a winter and all the horse racing had been abandoned (before the All Weather started). Fucking football.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Interesting theory from Mr Schiff today suggesting that Bitcoin taking the spotlight from gold does central banks a favour because they don't consider Bitcoin a threat. 

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

[sancho panza]

another red flag looms on the road to the BK in the copper price ....history doesn't repeat etc.Waiting on the for a copper peak and  oil price to run and nat gas.

The trends are falling into place

hot on the heels of

1)the UK credit downturn,happening in the US too,when the stress is on.

 

2) US bong yields rising

3) EUR/USD uptrend.Despite Euro money supply surging

 

 

 

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The first hedge I ever used was a bet on Greece in the Final of Euro 2000 and something when I had Portugal in the work sweepstake.

The first 'hedge' i ever used was on the way back home from the pub... sorry Yadda couldn't resist.

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can hardly look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

@Cattle Prod made an excellent point t'other day regarding the market cap of Bitcoin.

As you say it gets made into a competition between the two but there's little correlation short/medium term,and a lot of gold bugs myself wouldn't buy crypto(admire those who do and understand it).

 

[Noallegiance]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

another red flag looms on the road to the BK in the copper price ....history doesn't repeat etc.Waiting on the for a copper peak and  oil price to run and nat gas.

The trends are falling into place

hot on the heels of

1)the UK credit downturn,happening in the US too,when the stress is on.

 

2) US bong yields rising

3) EUR/USD uptrend.Despite Euro money supply surging

 

 

 

 

It's this sort of thing that makes me want to wait for the effects of a) the lag of the massive printing 10 months ago combined with b) the next Democrat-sponsored monster print before perhaps selling 20-30% of my portfolio for the gains and await the bust.

I'm beginning to lean toward the idea that it'll be a Q3 or Q4 event. 

It's like playing virtual chicken.

Edit to add: if I miss it I won't be bothered. I have a little cash on the sidelines anyway. I'm invested in the right areas and still have 25+ years until retirement!

[jamtomorrow]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

I wonder how much of that is down to Schiff. For a goldbug and self-professed crypto sceptic, he spends and awful lot of time watching BTC price action and posting on twitter, completely unprompted much of the time.

Never fails to get engagement from crypto twitter, which I suppose is why he does it. Certainly makes for some entertaining pantomime.

Here's a recent example:

 

[geordie_lurch]

6 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bitcoin got to over £27,800 earlier this morning

Up over £1000 again to £28,838 

[Harley]

On 06/01/2021 at 00:52, JMD said:

Sobering post Harley given your background.

Good post of yours.  Went for a long jomp across the hills with the dog yesterday.  A surge of that old belligerent energy, that wry smile, and a reminder you play your own game, no others.  Whatever, no fecks given.  Eff all the doubling down sub-standard technocrats with their Canute like failures and pathetic hubris.  Yes, the decay of institutions.  This virus will run until it too burns itself.  They should have learnt to leave well alone.  Battles are won at the margins and that's the place to be.  Now is the time to hunker down, to progress with stealth and daring.  To be grey but resolute and walk your own path as all around you loses its.

[Option5]

14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Up over £1000 again to £28,838 

A runaway train?

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A runaway train?

lets hope so, but the derailment wont be purdy.

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A runaway train?

Elon Musk is driving...

[JMD]

37 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A runaway train?

🌈 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (live) - Blockchaincenter

According to this commentator we are now entering 'Is this a bubble?' territory... but apparently still have 'fomo' to go... nb following the 'rainbow' should never be taken as literal investment advise!

For those here that hold, lots of other stats on the site also. The bitcoin supply chart is good, very granular - it even includes the infamous '10,000btc pizza purchase of 2010'!!

(German but there is a translate function)