Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[CVG]

12 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive just stuck the child tax credit money in there. you saying they'll put even more in for me? Or are you talking about from taxable income?

It's your child's allowance rather than yours. Yes, the taxman will consider that payment you made net of tax and add 20% usually in about 6-8 weeks. I usually make a payment in March and one in April (every two years) - the wait for the HMRC credit and allocate the entire £7200 in one go in order to minimise fees.

[Hunty]

Gap  Link

There's a Gap at ~ 2.72.5

It will be closed most probably.

Before BP goes higher. A nice dip to Top up.

She might go a little lower. Watch out for the MM's taking her down to fill it...

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Gap  Link

There's a Gap at ~ 2.72.5

It will be closed most probably.

Before BP goes higher. A nice dip to Top up.

She might go a little lower. Watch out for the MM's taking her down to fill it...

Nice one thanks Hunty, my parents finally got S&S ISAs and this would be a great first entry point 

[Harley]

42 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Gap  Link

There's a Gap at ~ 2.72.5

It will be closed most probably.

Before BP goes higher. A nice dip to Top up.

She might go a little lower. Watch out for the MM's taking her down to fill it...

Nice post.  Yes, the daily has got ahead of itself and it's currently in the Stochastic overbought zone.  I focus on the monthlies and would have had a signal (DYOR) with the MACD turn, etc had they been on my watchlist.  They're not due to their debt to equity ratio (currently 121%!).  Had a few other catches though!  Those recent candles look bullish.  This seems a very common chart pattern atm - a retrace back to the shoulder of their last down draught.  Hopefully a pullback before a break out.  Also note how price cleared the March candle wick low - looks like a clean bottom, BK, another mishap, etc allowing!  DYOR!  So what's your gig - trader, investor (type?) etc?  

PS:  Talking of gaps - has it properly filled the daily 9 March 20 one yet?

 

[Bricormortis]

11 hours ago, leonardratso said:

i believe bricor may have branched out from injecting people(wimmin?) with his special syringe;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fake-doctor-performed-circumcisions-children-9555162

You knock it but £125 quid is 125 quid.

[King Penda]

11 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

My dad had a 900k sipp last march. He lost 300k in the sell off. I told him to sell everything but didn't listen. He stayed invested but swapped into gold miners hydrogen and ev stocks. He now has 1.7m. Its unbelievable. I have told him to sell everything but don't think he will. Surely a crash coming within days. Does anybody know anyone who has done so well with a broad portfolio of stocks? Not just got lucky on a 30 bagger with 50k down. He has been using an online stock advisor service that he paid 5k for 5 years ago. Parents already have million quid house and don't spend anything much. I asked about giving more to myself and siblings but don't think he wants to pay 40pc tax. Crazy world.

He might be thinking of Germany and hyper inflation or just a tight fuck or the fact that it’s traditional to wait until someone is dead before they get any cash.but it’s more commonplace now with the bank of mum a dad . Ps my mums decided at 84 to distribute anything she has above 100k in cash to her kids has it’s finally dawned on her that it’s of no use to her but like I pointed out to my sisters don’t get excited she is getting fuck all in interest now the only way you will get anything next Christmas is if she spends less than she gets comeing in.

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, CVG said:

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

Something similar for impoverished people like myself to encourage me to save ie free tax payer cash on top lol

[Barnsey]

 

[Heart's Ease]

I'll keep an eye out for this broadcast - which might be of interest.

DH gets mentioned a couple of times in the responses.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

I'll keep an eye out for this broadcast - which might be of interest.

DH gets mentioned a couple of times in the responses.

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?  Having a makeover?  Happy to be the bag carrier but only if I can stay at Raoul's gaff for a few weeks!

[geordie_lurch]

38 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

It's gone over £30,400 this morning

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?

He replied to me yesterday

[JMD]

14 hours ago, harp said:

Whats a jomp? Or do you mean yomp? If so you were a Royal Marine? If it's jomp then you were a Royal Marine officer
And if you were Army, you know full well its called a tab!

Don't know if Harley meant yomp or jomp... but reminds me of 'gif'/'jif'... apparently it should be pronounced with a soft 'j' despite standing for graphic interchange format. Who knew? But I guess that's English for you, as in say gin/gate, etc, plus the inventor himself says its pronounced with a 'j', then again he is an American!

Anyhow enough treading water - ahem, so to speak(?!) - i believe Harley may have mentioned some time back what he did in past life. Could be wrong, so must let Harley comment if he so wishes.

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I'm holding or adding oil and telecoms through another crash, but will take profits in PMs and a few other sectors if we hit some of the DaveH meltup targets (or aren't far off).

I've also been taking some cash off the table for a few months, although I have just gambled most of my cash pile on ARB.

Just thought i'd add another financial commentator warning of market bubbles, i particularly like the Evergreen investment outfits sardonic writing style.

Take Profits! - Evergreen Gavekal

..btw Hardhat, is ARB you mention the Argo block chain? If so do you have any particular price target for selling, or do you plan to just hold?

[Noallegiance]

I think all of this chatter we're having is symptomatic of the inflection point DB refers to. I'd say we've certainly reached a critical period of the cycle turn.

AC Milan are about to go in at half time 3-0 up but Liverpool's second half is about to kick off.

[JMD]

15 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm of the same mind. I told my MP I'm removing myself from the tax net after the latest lockdown vote. Not paying them to imprison me.

I share the same same sentiment as you CP. Have you achieved your retirement wealth target? I'm not (just!) being nosey, but I do recall you saying some time back that if your investment plan continued working as well as it was doing, you might retire early. 

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, Harley said:

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?  Having a makeover?  Happy to be the bag carrier but only if I can stay at Raoul's gaff for a few weeks!

Iv been on mechanic duty Harley,my heavy duty jump leads and my 15 year old Peugeot have had to fire up my daughter and a few neighbours cars.Iv changed the battery on my daughters and iv changed the coil pack and plugs on my sons partners.Loads of snow up here.My old girl even took 3 turns todays to start,her crank is starting to get a bit sticky,il flush all the oil out in spring,get her filled with some quality oil.

Im also making lots of home make pies today,corned beef and chicken.

Potash has doubled,trebled and more for us now.Telcos have ran up lovely.I think some like BT will consolidate for a while,oilies should continue higher though.Im thinking of jacking in work as well soon.Spend more time on the macro stuff.Maybe we should form a consultancy and pimp ourselves to big companies to provide them a macro road map for their business.Id be interested if anyone wanted to build us a website and do the plugging.

Thread has really come good,and i hope people have done very well out of it.Lots of danger ahead though and we need to be careful here we dont rejoice in our success and become mugs.

If oil over shoots into the $70s+ range that could trigger a BK.The CBs are still printing and im seeing inflation at 3% mid year,my roadmap is showing likely CB QE stops soon after with a few more smaller tranches.Here in the UK the BOE will have to stop by October at the latest.Government will have a big structural deficit still then.

 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Loads of snow up here.

Now you're just being ridiculously contrarian, I've been told time and time again it's a thing of the past. 

Good on you for helping your neighbours out.  

Can I be public relations head? I think I'd be good at that.

[The Idiocrat]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

I'll keep an eye out for this broadcast - which might be of interest.

DH gets mentioned a couple of times in the responses.

This is quite extraordinary. There have been no inflationists for years, if not decades, and now it looks like the deflationists are very much in the minority. Quite a turnaround, and much quicker than I expected.

[DurhamBorn]

On the likes of Bp its up to individuals,but including divis i expect the shares to get to £10 in the cycle minimum.It will likely hang around in the £4+ area for a while though.The sector is more about filling gaps and where do people top up if needed.People will be crying for those kind of stocks when inflation starts to run.Those woke bozos running the NEST fund sold average workers holdings in their pensions at £2 a share.

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

[Hardhat]

46 minutes ago, JMD said:

Just thought i'd add another financial commentator warning of market bubbles, i particularly like the Evergreen investment outfits sardonic writing style.

Take Profits! - Evergreen Gavekal

..btw Hardhat, is ARB you mention the Argo block chain? If so do you have any particular price target for selling, or do you plan to just hold?

Yet Argo Blockchain - I haven't got a huge amount invested, and I'm setting stops every day as I think it could crash at any moment.

I'm up 70% in two days atm (!) If it gets to 100% I will most likely take out my original stake and let it run. I feel I've already missed the "life changing" gains here (it's x10 since Dec 1st) so not being too greedy. I see it as a pure gamble.

[Loki]

@DurhamBorn Out of reps but yup

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?  Having a makeover?

I went round to his house last night but his mother said he couldn't play out. As soon as he takes his school uniform off, he has to go do an evening paper round as well as the morning one. Apparently he tipped her a share, she wouldn't say what the name was but it's not done well. He has to pay her back out of the paper rounds money again.

[geordie_lurch]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the likes of Bp its up to individuals,but including divis i expect the shares to get to £10 in the cycle minimum.It will likely hang around in the £4+ area for a while though.The sector is more about filling gaps and where do people top up if needed.People will be crying for those kind of stocks when inflation starts to run.Those woke bozos running the NEST fund sold average workers holdings in their pensions at £2 a share.

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Thanks as ever  @DurhamBorn for your thoughts here . I top sliced some Shell recently along with some other non oilies and put the cash into BP recently as historically they look they could have larger gains than Shell from here on but I'm trying my best to sit tight on the sector as a whole

[wherebee]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the likes of Bp its up to individuals,but including divis i expect the shares to get to £10 in the cycle minimum.It will likely hang around in the £4+ area for a while though.The sector is more about filling gaps and where do people top up if needed.People will be crying for those kind of stocks when inflation starts to run.Those woke bozos running the NEST fund sold average workers holdings in their pensions at £2 a share.

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Thanks DB.

I am chopping another tree down tomorrow.