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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wherebee said:

jesus christ.

If I had any money in that investment fund I'd be getting it out.  That arsehole does not see the world through an honest lens (I think to be a senior official in the past 25 years you have to have drunk the kool aid), and his advice will be fucking terrible as a result.  He'll open some doors due to contacts, but in terms of investment strategy...

Actually I'm sure he will perform brilliantly while the financial system 'paradigm'  does exactly as it did for his tenure.  (Brrrrrrrr)

The one trick pony might run into trouble if any thinking is required.

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Loki said:

Actually I'm sure he will perform brilliantly while the financial system 'paradigm'  does exactly as it did for his tenure.  (Brrrrrrrr)

The one trick pony might run into trouble if any thinking is required.

it doesnt matter either way, guys gonna be coining all the way, does well, extra bonus, does badly, obviously needs even more bonus to perform better.

He was an annoying cunt you wouldnt piss on if he was on fire, but that could be said for quite a lot of govt/cohorts at any level.

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

it doesnt matter either way, guys gonna be coining all the way, does well, extra bonus, does badly, obviously needs even more bonus to perform better.

He was an annoying cunt you wouldnt piss on if he was on fire, but that could be said for quite a lot of govt/cohorts at any level.

Good point!

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Good point!

thats just the way it is im afraid, its why no-one sheds a tear when these fuckers go to pot or drop dead.

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reformed nice guy

reformed nice guy

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Me too.

I suepct he'll be charging a lot for his advice.Amazing how much inflation proof pension he accumulated at the BoE telling us inflation wasn't an issue.....

Agree 100%. Judge them by what they do rather than what they say.

 

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MrXxxx

MrXxxx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Been through the telecoms sector.Intersting to see how different the balance sheets in this sector are compared to commodity sectors(where they've struggled to borrow over the last decade eg PM miners).Lot more 1s and 2s but the rates they've borrowed at will be decent.Let's remember that Vodafone floated off 40 year bonds at 1% last year.Obviously dyodd as ever but there are some compelling bargains in these names imho and we'll be adding to our Vod.

Having sifted all these names,I think I might adapt the scoring system a little bit and measure out of 50 to try and reflect a little more accurately-eg Vod and Koninklijke get the same Balance sheet score but equity/assets ratio is at either end of my banding for a 2 score.

It is what it is.But this is roughly what we'll be spraying and praying off.As before,anything over 17 for me gets seriously looked at.

Decl-own Vod.Also beware the Veon score,there are some anomalies worht a closer look

If tehre's any names people could suggest for any of my lsits I'd much appreciate a heads up.

 
 

   

Company  Chart Income Balance Sheet Cash flow Sector SCS
America Movil 1 4 1 4 4 14
AT&T 4 4 2 5 4 19
BCE 1 3 2 5 4 15
Bharti Airtel 1 1 2 1 4 9
BT 5 5 2 4 4 20
Century Link 5 1 1 5 4 16
Deutsche Tel 2 4 1 5 4 16
KDDI 1 4 3 4 4 16
Koninklijke NV 4 4 2 4 4 18
KT Corp (Korea tel) 5 4 3 1 4 17
MTN (Africa) 4 4 2 4 4 18
Nippon Telegraph 3 4 3 4 4 18
Orange (France Tel) 5 5 2 3 4 19
Proximus (Belgium) 5 4 2 5 4 20
TLK (Indonesia) 2 4 3 3 4 16
Singapore Tel 4 3 3 4 4 18
SK Telecom 2 3 3 2 4 14
Softbank 1 2 1 1 4 9
Swisscom 2 4 2 3 4 15
T-Mobile US 1 3 3 1 4 12
Telecom Italia 5 2 2 5 4 18
Telefonica 5 4 1 5 4 19
Telia 4 4 2 4 4 18
Telstra 5 4 2 3 4 18
Telus 1 4 2 1 4 12
United Internet AG 2 3 3 4 4 16
VEON 4 5 1 5 4 19
Verizon 1 4 2 3 4 14
Vodafone 4 3 2 5 4 18

AAF?

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Carney's new job:

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Carney said investment that focuses on outcomes beyond financial returns was “one of the greatest commercial opportunities of our time”

 

That quote is giving me a headache! What does he mean... is he merely signaling big-statism on steroids? If so, another nail in capitalisms coffin me thinks. 

Lyn Alden (a favorite of this blog, i'm a fan also btw) likes Brookfield. Just saying. 

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AWW

AWW

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, JMD said:

That quote is giving me a headache! What does he mean... is he merely signaling big-statism on steroids? If so, another nail in capitalisms coffin me thinks. 

Lyn Alden (a favorite of this blog, i'm a fan also btw) likes Brookfield. Just saying. 

I thought the same thing - we already have a word for "impact investing". It's called philanthropism.

If I were more cynical, I'd assume that the difference between philanthropism and "impact investing" is that the latter will tell you that they're splashing the cash out of the goodness of their hearts, but will also just happen to make a nice profit out of it too.

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Been through the telecoms sector.Intersting to see how different the balance sheets in this sector are compared to commodity sectors(where they've struggled to borrow over the last decade eg PM miners).Lot more 1s and 2s but the rates they've borrowed at will be decent.Let's remember that Vodafone floated off 40 year bonds at 1% last year.Obviously dyodd as ever but there are some compelling bargains in these names imho and we'll be adding to our Vod.

Having sifted all these names,I think I might adapt the scoring system a little bit and measure out of 50 to try and reflect a little more accurately-eg Vod and Koninklijke get the same Balance sheet score but equity/assets ratio is at either end of my banding for a 2 score.

It is what it is.But this is roughly what we'll be spraying and praying off.As before,anything over 17 for me gets seriously looked at.

Decl-own Vod.Also beware the Veon score,there are some anomalies worht a closer look

If tehre's any names people could suggest for any of my lsits I'd much appreciate a heads up. 

Company  Chart Income Balance Sheet Cash flow Sector SCS
America Movil 1 4 1 4 4 14
AT&T 4 4 2 5 4 19
BCE 1 3 2 5 4 15
Bharti Airtel 1 1 2 1 4 9
BT 5 5 2 4 4 20
Century Link 5 1 1 5 4 16
Deutsche Tel 2 4 1 5 4 16
KDDI 1 4 3 4 4 16
Koninklijke NV 4 4 2 4 4 18
KT Corp (Korea tel) 5 4 3 1 4 17
MTN (Africa) 4 4 2 4 4 18
Nippon Telegraph 3 4 3 4 4 18
Orange (France Tel) 5 5 2 3 4 19
Proximus (Belgium) 5 4 2 5 4 20
TLK (Indonesia) 2 4 3 3 4 16
Singapore Tel 4 3 3 4 4 18
SK Telecom 2 3 3 2 4 14
Softbank 1 2 1 1 4 9
Swisscom 2 4 2 3 4 15
T-Mobile US 1 3 3 1 4 12
Telecom Italia 5 2 2 5 4 18
Telefonica 5 4 1 5 4 19
Telia 4 4 2 4 4 18
Telstra 5 4 2 3 4 18
Telus 1 4 2 1 4 12
United Internet AG 2 3 3 4 4 16
VEON 4 5 1 5 4 19
Verizon 1 4 2 3 4 14
Vodafone 4 3 2 5 4 18

SP, great list, but how about: 1&1 Drillisch, Telenor, Turkcell

I own Veon, may i enquire of what anomolies you speak of sir!?

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Jesus Wept

Jesus Wept

Posted
Posted

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-27/powell-says-fed-to-seek-inflation-that-averages-2-over-time


So Fed are saying they will ESSENTIALLY  keep IRs low for 3-5 years and run inflation ‘hot’......

Interesting reaction from the market....

Lots of uncertainty here that the FED can achieve this.

Silver up and down like proverbial ‘hoors droors......’

175A26B0-315D-4624-A403-D0A8DF870495.jpeg

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janch

janch

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-27/powell-says-fed-to-seek-inflation-that-averages-2-over-time


So Fed are saying they will ESSENTIALLY  keep IRs low for 3-5 years and run inflation ‘hot’......

Interesting reaction from the market....

Lots of uncertainty here that the FED can achieve this.

Silver up and down like proverbial ‘hoors droors......’

175A26B0-315D-4624-A403-D0A8DF870495.jpeg

That's exactly as @DurhamBorn predicted.  They will worry about unemployment rather than inflation. 

So it's back to the 70s.......

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted

To be fair, Powell was very quick to emphasize that the overshot in inflation would be moderate and short-term, and the 2% average inflation is still very much the target.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, JMD said:

SP, great list, but how about: 1&1 Drillisch, Telenor, Turkcell

I own Veon, may i enquire of what anomolies you speak of sir!?

Telenor was on my lsit,clearly missed it lol.

When you've looked at 50 sets of accoutns across the sector,there's stands out in my mind,really high net income,really high FCF,really poor bal;ance sheet.Somethign doesn't ring ture if you pardon the pun.

I'll add the others tonight,busy selling a few PM miners-SIB,GFI,AU,FRES,IAM.Taking profits,sticking the orinigal stakes back into otehr PM miners,profits into telecoms and potash

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/upshot/of-kiwis-and-currencies-how-a-2-inflation-target-became-global-economic-gospel.html

Not sure if we've had this on the thread before but always a good read of how the 2% inflation target came about in the first place.

It gets posted every 6 months or so but it should be more often.It shoudl be mandatory reading in schools but it's not amazingly.

Everyone shoudl get an idea of how they're making this up as they go along and have been since Volcker.

The 2% inflation target is utter bollocks especially given that the method of calculation be it CPI/RPI/CPIH etc is plucked out of thin air jsut like the notion of 2% being a number that magically creates more stability than 3% or 2.5% or 5% or 11%.

I rest my case m'lud.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, JMD said:

SP, great list, but how about: 1&1 Drillisch, Telenor, Turkcell

I own Veon, may i enquire of what anomolies you speak of sir!?

I'll post the scores on the doors later 1&1 is owned by United Intyernet

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Ma2

Ma2

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

If tehre's any names people could suggest for any of my lsits I'd much appreciate a heads up.

Hi @sancho panza have you looked at Cellnex?

https://www.cellnextelecom.com/en/who-we-are/

They are on iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telcos ETF and in the top ten holdings.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-stoxx-europe-600-telecommunications

Edit: to say thanks for the list!

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've piled into K+S long term options, they're cheap

how long?

I piled into shitloads more BP shares last week and now regretting it.......:CryBaby:

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Errol

Errol

Posted
Posted

Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2."

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