Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

Nasdaq hit 12k earlier, then dumped, then of course the dip was bought.....

that index has nearly doubled since the low in march, bloody bonkers!!

I think it needs a new nickname....like the fanny index...f anny-thing in it goes bloody bonkers!! 

[CVG]

8 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

that index has nearly doubled since the low in march, bloody bonkers!!

It's mad, but it's good. Bubbles usually go exponential just before they burst.

[Jesus Wept]

20 minutes ago, CVG said:

It's mad, but it's good. Bubbles usually go exponential just before they burst.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-26/red-hot-nasdaq-100-is-threatening-to-double-inside-of-two-years
 

I am Bear - but bloody hell the FOMO is building now..... 😬

Do any of you here think it is possible we miss out the deflationary bust and just go straight to big inflation? 

[Harley]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Been through the telecoms sector........

I'm currently having another look at the Communication Services Industry.  The difference this time is to screen companies using industry averages rather than absolute values (e.g. against the industry LT Debt to Equity ratio rather than my usual 50%) on the basis I have already decided I like the industry and my screen is more to identify the best in that industry.  I should look at absolute values as part of the industry assessment.   I'm restricting my markets to those easily invested in and excluding grey markets like the US OTC one (although including the UK Crest International ones (CIDs)).  So that'll exclude the likes of Nippon (only available US OTC, German (low vol), or Japan (hard to access)).  Also I'll try to avoid bad tax markets (e.g. high withholding taxes).   I'll feedback what I find.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Do any of you here think it is possible we miss out the deflationary bust and just go straight to big inflation? 

Did you see what the DXY, gold, etc did today after the Fed Powell speech?  Maybe we need the deflationary bust in order to kickstart the big inflation? Otherwise we just carry on as per, in some weird no man's land.

I don't know, just mulling thoughts around after a strange day.

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Do any of you here think it is possible we miss out the deflationary bust and just go straight to big inflation? 

Yes...we had the bust in March.....the FED are inflating everything.......it's 2008 on steroids, that was a hated rally for a long time too 

[Popuplights]

52 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

how long?

I piled into shitloads more BP shares last week and now regretting it.......

I'm staying out at the moment. I'm nearly 4k down on RDSB!!

😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Did you see what the DXY, gold, etc did today after the Fed Powell speech? 

this is nothing unusual......you often see big spikes up n down during central bankers talking their 'economics BS'.....algos get a bit jumpy trying to figure out what is 'going down' 

[Shamone]

53 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

how long?

I piled into shitloads more BP shares last week and now regretting it.......

Good long term hold though, surely?

[sancho panza]

@JMD @MrXxxx @Ma2

Thanks for the additions.

Company	Chart	Income	Bal Sheet	CF	Sector	SCS
Airtel Africa	3	5	2	5	4	19
America Movil	1	4	1	4	4	14
AT&T	4	4	2	5	4	19
BCE	1	3	2	5	4	15
Bharti Airtel	1	1	2	1	4	9
BT	5	5	2	4	4	20
Cellnex	1	3	2	1	4	11
Century Link	5	1	1	5	4	16
Deutsche Tel	2	4	1	5	4	16
Drillisch	3	5	4	4	4	20
KDDI	1	4	3	4	4	16
Koninklijke NV	4	4	2	4	4	18
KT Corp (Korea tel)	5	4	3	1	4	17
MTN (Africa)	4	4	2	4	4	18
Nippon Telegraph	3	4	3	4	4	18
Orange (France Tel)	5	5	2	3	4	19
Proximus (Belgium)	5	4	2	5	4	20
TLK (Indonesia)	2	4	3	3	4	16
Singapore Tel	4	3	3	4	4	18
SK Telecom	2	3	3	2	4	14
Softbank	1	2	1	1	4	9
Swisscom	2	4	2	3	4	15
T-Mobile US	1	3	3	1	4	12
Telecom Italia	5	2	2	5	4	18
Telefonica	5	4	1	5	4	19
Telenor	2	3	1	3	4	13
Telia	4	4	2	4	4	18
Telstra	5	4	2	3	4	18
Telus	1	4	2	1	4	12
Turkcell	1	5	2	5	4	17
United Internet AG	2	3	3	4	4	16
VEON	4	5	1	5	4	19
Verizon	1	4	2	3	4	14
Vodafone	4	3	2	5	4	18

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Popuplights said:

I'm staying out at the moment. I'm nearly 4k down on RDSB!!

😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

yup I'm down on those fookers now too 

1 minute ago, Shamone said:

Good long term hold though, surely?

probably but it's the 'opportunity cost' of being into something else that is a pisser.......I bought 'many thousands' of BP shares last week.....now if my lucky coin had come up 'more Horizonte Minerals' I'd be knee deep in 'hookers n blow' at the moment 

[sancho panza]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Jun 22 I think. I'll roll them till they run.

I've tried to st up an IB a/c but had problems.On saxo there's no Euro options.I'll have another go.

@MvR does tastyworks do Euro area options?

[sancho panza]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm currently having another look at the Communication Services Industry.  The difference this time is to screen companies using industry averages rather than absolute values (e.g. against the industry LT Debt to Equity ratio rather than my usual 50%) on the basis I have already decided I like the industry and my screen is more to identify the best in that industry.  I should look at absolute values as part of the industry assessment.   I'm restricting my markets to those easily invested in and excluding grey markets like the US OTC one (although including the UK Crest International ones (CIDs)).  So that'll exclude the likes of Nippon (only available US OTC, German (low vol), or Japan (hard to access)).  Also I'll try to avoid bad tax markets (e.g. high withholding taxes).   I'll feedback what I find.

I think thats a key issue right there Harley.When you look at the Telecoms sector through the same eyeglass you're using on PM miners,you're clearly going to gloss over a lot of nuances.Hence,on this sector,I'm going a bit easier on the debt side because they've been getting it so cheap.I'm developing my coma scale screen and trying to improve it.Aiming to identifty the best in that industry is the way forward.Sometiems,Im that busy at the coalface,I don't see the wood for the trees.

 

Appreciate the insight.As I mentioned before,I'm thinking of moving the scale from 5-50,allowing to differentiate some of the more middling companies a bit better.Onwards etc

[sancho panza]

36 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Jun 22 I think. I'll roll them till they run.

what price did you pay CP?

I'm buying some more XOM calls tonight.Alcoa/NTR/MOS/X/FCX running nicely jsut my XOM options letting me down.Leaves me able to keep capital free.

[Jesus Wept]

22 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Yes...we had the bust in March.....the FED are inflating everything.......it's 2008 on steroids, that was a hated rally for a long time too 

Nah - the stockmarket might have fallen - but no deflationary bust. We need more companies going to the wall and consumer demand falling further and growth contracting massively - to really light this inflationary reflationary fuse! 
 

Last time 2008 I called it wrong and thought straight to inflation and rising IRs and now I am saying bust and then inflate. (Hence a 10yr fixed mortgage... 🙄). 
 

I am going to get it wrong again aren’t I ? 
 

😬

[Shamone]

14 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

yup I'm down on those fookers now too 

probably but it's the 'opportunity cost' of being into something else that is a pisser.......I bought 'many thousands' of BP shares last week.....now if my lucky coin had come up 'more Horizonte Minerals' I'd be knee deep in 'hookers n blow' at the moment 

It’s all part of the game we all play though, no? I’m still 45% down on Tesco that couldn’t bring myself to sell. Also nearly bought £1k worth of rhodium in 2015, pretty much 10x recently. It’s all a game, really.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Been through the telecoms sector.

Why so hard on T-Mobile US?  4 year annual: steady growing revenue, profit, and income.  Recovery in 2019 of OCF to over 2016 level, 114% LT Debt to Equity (below industry average) and Current Ratio over 1. 

Also, have you looked at TDS in the US?  Rubbish margin but some reasonable other financials.  I need to look further but just passed an initial screen.

PS:  Trying to look at UK CID stocks is a bugger as they are compared in Investing.com against their home market, not the UK, which is probably fair enough, but very messy for screening.

[MvR]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've tried to st up an IB a/c but had problems.On saxo there's no Euro options.I'll have another go.

@MvR does tastyworks do Euro area options?

No.. just the US ones I'm afraid.  This is one of the advantages of Interactive Brokers.. they offer pretty much everything.

[Shamone]

6 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Nah - the stockmarket might have fallen - but no deflationary bust. We need more companies going to the wall and consumer demand falling further and growth contracting massively - to really light this inflationary reflationary fuse! 
 

Last time 2008 I called it wrong and thought straight to inflation and rising IRs and now I am saying bust and then inflate. (Hence a 10yr fixed mortgage... 🙄). 
 

I am going to get it wrong again aren’t I ? 
 

😬

10 yr mortgage worth it’s weight in potash in peace of mind.

[MvR]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've piled into K+S long term options, they're cheap. Ive figured out the IB workstation, thanks @MvR

cheers.  One thing to think about.. when I buy long term options, I like to sell shorter term ones against them, like a covered call. The theta decay on the long dated ones is often so low, you can compensate with reasonably OTM near dated ( front month ) options, though that depends on your size, and therefore margin on the front month ones, as well as liquidity on those options. Depending on your strikes, you could easily end up covering the whole cost of the long dated options by repeatedly selling front month calls, and rolling them over each month. 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

If tehre's any names people could suggest for any of my lsits I'd much appreciate a heads up.

An issue will be what screening tool you're using as each will have allocated companies to differing sectors and industries.  And also whether you're looking at sectors or industries.  After much faffing about, I'm using Investing.com as my database and screener.  Screening the US Communications Services industry for ordinary stocks with reasonable relative solvency (LT Debt to Equity and Current Ratio below/above industry average), yields the following (I ignore the OTC stuff):

[sancho panza]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

Why so hard on T-Mobile US?  4 year annual: steady growing revenue, profit, and income.  Recovery in 2019 of OCF to over 2016 level, 114% LT Debt to Equity (below industry average) and Current Ratio over 1. 

Also, have you looked at TDS in the US?  Rubbish margin but some reasonable other financials.  I need to look further but just passed an initial screen.

PS:  Trying to look at UK CID stocks is a bugger as they are compared in Investing.com against their home market, not the UK, which is probably fair enough, but very messy for screening.

I'm using the data for the last year,if it gets a good score,I tkae a closer look at the previous years.Chart looks very full,net income average,balance sheet average,FCF getting spent on capex .Each story has it's own nuances,all I'm doing here is using a set of criteria to exclude/include companies.The risk reward looks poor to me even on a second viewing.

Especially when compared to the likes of BT/AT&T/Nippon Telegrpah/SIngtel/Telstra which have a decent histroy of kciking out big divi's and have beaten up charts(I'm a tight bastard :-)

TDS looks a reasonable punt.I'll run teh figures tmrw and get back to you.Ta for teh heads up

[sancho panza]

17 minutes ago, MvR said:

No.. just the US ones I'm afraid.  This is one of the advantages of Interactive Brokers.. they offer pretty much everything.

We run the options via the country my Mum lives in,which is isn't on IB's list which is why we've struggled I think.

I'll have another bash at IB tmrw when I haven't got the kids under my feet.There's never any phone number's these days

Thanks M

[MvR]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

We run the options via the country my Mum lives in,which is isn't on IB's list which is why we've struggled I think.

I'll have another bash at IB tmrw when I haven't got the kids under my feet.There's never any phone number's these days

Thanks M

Contact numbers here -  https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1560&p=contact

 

LOCATION	NUMBER	HOURS OF OPERATION2	MENU OPTIONS
United States	1 (877) 442-2757 Toll free 1 (312) 542-6901 Direct dial	13:00 (Mon - Fri) - 01:00 (Tue - Sat) (Europe/London) 18:00 (Sun) - 00:00 (Mon) (Europe/London)	1 Trade Related Issues 1/1 Phone Orders 1/2 Trade Issues 1/3 How to use TWS 1/4 Margin Issues 2 Cash or Position Transfers 2/1 Cash Deposits, Withdrawals 2/2 US & Canadian Position Transfers 2/3 Other Position Transfers 3 Log in Assistance 3/1 Password Assistance 3/2 Security Devices 4 Account Configuration, Statements, Fees, Corporate Actions & General Assistance 4/1 Account Configuration 4/2 Statements, Fees 4/3 Tax Issues 4/4 Corporate Actions, Dividends 4/5 General Assistance 5 Technical Assistance 5/1 Software Installation & Connectivity 5/2 Software Operation 5/3 Software Functionality 5/4 API Support 6 Market Data, IBIS 6/1 Market Data 6/2 IBIS
Canada	1 (877) 745-4222 Toll free 1 (514) 847-3499 Direct dial	13:00 - 22:30 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Canada (Vancouver)	1 (877) 745-4222 Toll free 1 (604) 661-4300 Direct dial	16:00 (Mon - Fri) - 01:30 (Tue - Sat) (Europe/London)
Europe	00800-42-276537 Toll free3 +41-41-726-9500 Direct dial +44 207-710-5695 Direct dial United Kingdom	08:00 - 17:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Russia	8-800-100-8556 Toll free4 +41-41-726-9506 Pyсский	07:00 - 16:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Hong Kong	+852-3729-0896 Primary direct dial number (temporary) +852-2156-7907 Direct dial	01:00 - 10:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Australia	+61 (2) 8093 7300 Direct dial	00:30 - 10:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
India	+91 22 61289888 Direct dial +91 22 39696188 Direct dial	01:30 - 13:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
China	+86 (21) 6086 8586 Direct dial	02:00 - 11:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Japan	+81 (3) 4588 9700 Direct dial +81 (3) 4588 9710 Direct dial (English)	00:30 - 09:30 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)

 

 

[nirvana]

18 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

for BK

what's this BK voodoo???