Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

what's this BK voodoo???

BIG Kahuna 

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

BIG Kahuna 

so is everyone expecting another crash before CBs go 'all in' and Nastydaq hits 20k??? (which probably means Tesla needs to be worth more than Russia despite having billions in debt )

[Loki]

1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

so is everyone expecting another crash before CBs go 'all in' and Nastydaq hits 20k??? (which probably means Tesla needs to be worth more than Russia despite having billions in debt )

I think most(?) posters here (Me and @sancho panza anyway) think there will be Sizeable Event between now and end of year, early next.

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

I think most(?) posters here (Me and @sancho panza anyway) think there will be Sizeable Event between now and end of year, early next.

cool.....I'll think about having a clean out tomorrow and dumping all these shitty oil stocks I'm holding 

[Loki]

Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

cool.....I'll think about having a clean out tomorrow and dumping all these shitty oil stocks I'm holding 

If you can time the market, go for it. 

(I can't)

[Eventually Right]

59 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Saxo wouldn't let me buy long dated options "Cannot increase exposure due to system configuration" whatever that means. I'll be the judge of that you Danish twits!

Yeah, I had that problem, which is why I set up the IB account. When I questioned saxo, they said they didn’t deal in options that expired in more than 24 months time. 
 

strangely though, I could buy UUP (dollar etf) options with saxo but couldn’t on IB for whatever reason.

[Popuplights]

45 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

cool.....I'll think about having a clean out tomorrow and dumping all these shitty oil stocks I'm holding 

What will it cost you to crytalise your positions on oilys?

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Saxo wouldn't let me buy long dated options "Cannot increase exposure due to system configuration" whatever that means. I'll be the judge of that you Danish twits!

I nearly opened an account with Saxo Bank until I found out that the Chinese are the majority shareholders

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, janch said:

That's exactly as @DurhamBorn predicted.  They will worry about unemployment rather than inflation. 

So it's back to the 70s.......

Yep,its incredible really isnt it how things are falling into place.The market is pretty much missing the fact we are at a key inflection point.The key is that the Fed want inflation higher than rates and once people wake to that fact there will be a big market shift.

@sancho panza great work on the Telcos.A really good list.The good thing is all the balance sheets are loaded with debt so they all need to focus on getting returns up.They key is the structure of the debt and maturity.

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, kibuc said:

To be fair, Powell was very quick to emphasize that the overshot in inflation would be moderate and short-term, and the 2% average inflation is still very much the target.

That is what I refer to as 'just the tip' promises.

 

Before you know it, everyone is proper fucked.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, MvR said:

Contact numbers here -  https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1560&p=contact

 

LOCATION	NUMBER	HOURS OF OPERATION2	MENU OPTIONS
United States	1 (877) 442-2757 Toll free 1 (312) 542-6901 Direct dial	13:00 (Mon - Fri) - 01:00 (Tue - Sat) (Europe/London) 18:00 (Sun) - 00:00 (Mon) (Europe/London)	1 Trade Related Issues 1/1 Phone Orders 1/2 Trade Issues 1/3 How to use TWS 1/4 Margin Issues 2 Cash or Position Transfers 2/1 Cash Deposits, Withdrawals 2/2 US & Canadian Position Transfers 2/3 Other Position Transfers 3 Log in Assistance 3/1 Password Assistance 3/2 Security Devices 4 Account Configuration, Statements, Fees, Corporate Actions & General Assistance 4/1 Account Configuration 4/2 Statements, Fees 4/3 Tax Issues 4/4 Corporate Actions, Dividends 4/5 General Assistance 5 Technical Assistance 5/1 Software Installation & Connectivity 5/2 Software Operation 5/3 Software Functionality 5/4 API Support 6 Market Data, IBIS 6/1 Market Data 6/2 IBIS
Canada	1 (877) 745-4222 Toll free 1 (514) 847-3499 Direct dial	13:00 - 22:30 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Canada (Vancouver)	1 (877) 745-4222 Toll free 1 (604) 661-4300 Direct dial	16:00 (Mon - Fri) - 01:30 (Tue - Sat) (Europe/London)
Europe	00800-42-276537 Toll free3 +41-41-726-9500 Direct dial +44 207-710-5695 Direct dial United Kingdom	08:00 - 17:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Russia	8-800-100-8556 Toll free4 +41-41-726-9506 Pyсский	07:00 - 16:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Hong Kong	+852-3729-0896 Primary direct dial number (temporary) +852-2156-7907 Direct dial	01:00 - 10:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Australia	+61 (2) 8093 7300 Direct dial	00:30 - 10:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
India	+91 22 61289888 Direct dial +91 22 39696188 Direct dial	01:30 - 13:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
China	+86 (21) 6086 8586 Direct dial	02:00 - 11:00 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)
Japan	+81 (3) 4588 9700 Direct dial +81 (3) 4588 9710 Direct dial (English)	00:30 - 09:30 (Mon - Fri) (Europe/London)

 

 

IB can be very good, but they also run very light on support staff (who are excellent generally, but not that many in number).  So - if you need help, use the in service messaging system rather than trying the helplines or chatbots.

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, Popuplights said:

What will it cost you to crytalise your positions on oilys?

yup many thousand £££s......

point is I'm on the 'slow boat to Timbuktu' at the moment........I should have been on the 'rocket train to Brasil' with Horizonte....

Always an interesting psychological battle of 'dump the 10% down losers' vs 'oh well the fundamentals are good, I'm in it for the long term'.....

Anyway futures are up! Markets must have decided they like what the FED bullshitters had to say 

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, Errol said:

Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2."

So what I can't understand is upon this announcement PM dropped...logic tells me they should have done the opposite or have I got it completely wrong (genuine question)?

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, Shamone said:

Good long term hold though, surely?

Good review of the US vs EU oiles in the FT today (in the Market Now article), subscription only so pointless posting unless you folks know a work around?..in a nutshell it showed two things:

1. Comparatively the EU are cheaper.

2. Looking forward the US are 100% black stuff, EU are black and diversified selection of green tech as well (has a breakdown of green tech types for each EU company)...holding BP and RDSB you have a broad range of green.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@JMD @MrXxxx @Ma2

Thanks for the additions.

Company	Chart	Income	Bal Sheet	CF	Sector	SCS
Airtel Africa	3	5	2	5	4	19
America Movil	1	4	1	4	4	14
AT&T	4	4	2	5	4	19
BCE	1	3	2	5	4	15
Bharti Airtel	1	1	2	1	4	9
BT	5	5	2	4	4	20
Cellnex	1	3	2	1	4	11
Century Link	5	1	1	5	4	16
Deutsche Tel	2	4	1	5	4	16
Drillisch	3	5	4	4	4	20
KDDI	1	4	3	4	4	16
Koninklijke NV	4	4	2	4	4	18
KT Corp (Korea tel)	5	4	3	1	4	17
MTN (Africa)	4	4	2	4	4	18
Nippon Telegraph	3	4	3	4	4	18
Orange (France Tel)	5	5	2	3	4	19
Proximus (Belgium)	5	4	2	5	4	20
TLK (Indonesia)	2	4	3	3	4	16
Singapore Tel	4	3	3	4	4	18
SK Telecom	2	3	3	2	4	14
Softbank	1	2	1	1	4	9
Swisscom	2	4	2	3	4	15
T-Mobile US	1	3	3	1	4	12
Telecom Italia	5	2	2	5	4	18
Telefonica	5	4	1	5	4	19
Telenor	2	3	1	3	4	13
Telia	4	4	2	4	4	18
Telstra	5	4	2	3	4	18
Telus	1	4	2	1	4	12
Turkcell	1	5	2	5	4	17
United Internet AG	2	3	3	4	4	16
VEON	4	5	1	5	4	19
Verizon	1	4	2	3	4	14
Vodafone	4	3	2	5	4	18

Now all I need to do is find your original post on coma score explanation and refresh my poor memory! :-)

[nirvana]

@MrXxxx link your FT article, I've got a plugin for paywall workaround.....I'll post info in stealth cos I don't want any tom dick or harry 'banker cunt' using it 

re inflation, every time the cunts mention inflation replace that with 'cost of living increase' and see how it sits with you and your family???........this is why the economy has been getting fucked for the last 30+ years methinks 

[nirvana]

30 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So what I can't understand is upon this announcement PM dropped...logic tells me they should have done the opposite or have I got it completely wrong (genuine question)?

re this one, it didn't drop, it spiked up, spiked down, is going up again now...

it's intraday 'algo noise'.......you need to decide if you're into micro or macro pov or you want to have a cognitive dissonance disorder like me 

[Harley]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm using the data for the last year,if it gets a good score,I tkae a closer look at the previous years.Chart looks very full,net income average,balance sheet average,FCF getting spent on capex .Each story has it's own nuances,all I'm doing here is using a set of criteria to exclude/include companies.The risk reward looks poor to me even on a second viewing.

Especially when compared to the likes of BT/AT&T/Nippon Telegrpah/SIngtel/Telstra which have a decent histroy of kciking out big divi's and have beaten up charts(I'm a tight bastard :-)

TDS looks a reasonable punt.I'll run teh figures tmrw and get back to you.Ta for teh heads up

Ta.  TBC, not having a go, just want to understand the process, something I see as important as the final list.  Same with TDS.  Not a recommendation or anything, just exploring the process for its exclusion.

On charts for value stocks, I adopt a two stage process with fundamental selection first.  The charts are used to time purchases, either whenever or not at all.  Stocks may be cheap for a reason and well bid stocks may go higher (I'm still annoyed with myself for not buying APD on my chemicals list because it was too high at the time!).

Each to their own.  All views matter!

[Bricks & Mortar]

Tick tock...

"“We have been tightening credit at the margin as we have felt for some time that we are in late credit cycle,” Discover Financial Services Chief Executive Officer Roger Hochschild said in April. “But given the present environment, we are adopting a significantly more cautious view.”"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/capital-one-cuts-card-limits-amid-u-s-impasse-on-jobless-aid

[AlfredTheLittle]

3 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

yup many thousand £££s......

point is I'm on the 'slow boat to Timbuktu' at the moment........I should have been on the 'rocket train to Brasil' with Horizonte....

Always an interesting psychological battle of 'dump the 10% down losers' vs 'oh well the fundamentals are good, I'm in it for the long term'.....

Anyway futures are up! Markets must have decided they like what the FED bullshitters had to say 

Wouldn't this be the time to buy more oilies, rather than sell? (buy low, sell high!)

[nirvana]

26 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Wouldn't this be the time to buy more oilies, rather than sell? (buy low, sell high!)

interesting conundrum.......read Jesse Livermore's 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'......what stuck in my mind was there was this 'old giffer' kept popping up everytime folk were talking of shorting the markets and he kept repeating like a parrot 'it's a BULL market innit'

Interesting character Livermore, he committed suicide, daytrading is fooking tough! Don't do it kids.....

Now why the fook didn't I sell my Horizonte Minerals yesterday and buy them back at a lower price??? 

PS meant to say nowt wrong with 'buy high, sell higher' 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

@MrXxxx link your FT article, I've got a plugin for paywall workaround.....I'll post info in stealth cos I don't want any tom dick or harry 'banker cunt' using it 

re inflation, every time the cunts mention inflation replace that with 'cost of living increase' and see how it sits with you and your family???........this is why the economy has been getting fucked for the last 30+ years methinks 

Economy has been smashed not because of inflation,but because most private sector workers wages stopped going up by RPI +.When i was 20 wages went up every year with RPI,the question was how much on top.In an average year 0.5% to 1% on top of RPI.Bad year only RPI,fantastic year RPI+1% +an extra holiday.

Once Labour were elected in the 90s as those pay increases went to government instead to he handed out in welfare and to sub council workers (mostly mid to high tier council workers).

 

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Economy has been smashed not because of inflation,but because most private sector workers wages stopped going up by RPI +.When i was 20 wages went up every year with RPI,the question was how much on top.In an average year 0.5% to 1% on top of RPI.Bad year only RPI,fantastic year RPI+1% +an extra holiday.

Once Labour were elected in the 90s as those pay increases went to government instead to he handed out in welfare and to sub council workers (mostly mid to high tier council workers).

I work in the private sector and even though I have risen in responsibility and workload if I look back what I was on 10 and 20 years ago in both cases it works out at 2% per annum gross.

Hardly inspiring or incentivising stuff which ultimately has ended up with me not giving a fuck about the companies I work for despite their best efforts to bullshit me otherwise (usually via email).

[wherebee]

So - I have a bit of USD I need to get back into AUD or GBP.  But - the rates are shite at the moment compared to the past two years.  Is the common view on here that we'll see a spike in USD before the big crash?

[Errol]

15 hours ago, Errol said:

Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2."

Another way of putting it:

'We are either going to default on the debt, or we are going to default on fiat [currency]'