Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

Largely tongue in cheek, about as positive as it gets as no sale on the properties I knew about was a big red flag as should have sold. Whatever transactions that are occurring know might be seen as the mopping up of the latent just buy this year and deal lockers. The final sweep before the lunge down.

I dare say there has been a surge in people trying to buy before the mortgage prices go up.

[haroldshand]

13 hours ago, No One said:

I've been reading this headline in a few places. If the boe was a serious instutition, IR would have been at 4% 6 months ago never mind next year with Inflation at 18.9%.

Currency crisis is going to have to force them like in black Wednesday and they will be kicking and screaming before they torpedo the housing market

The one thing I have learnt about the housing market and especially the elite who control all the levers  to it's performance in it's various ways in the last 20 years is that it tells me that no political or economic/financial choices or policies are made for the good of the country as a whole and nearly everything revolves around housing wealth to a point they will protect it regardless of who it takes down.

Having said that I do think the battle is now lost and the UK's obsession with rising house prices by any means is now nearly exhausted

[Democorruptcy]

Latest independent economic forecasts includes this table for HPI in 2023 (column on the right), a few negative forecasts creeping in:

 

[spygirl]

On 24/08/2022 at 10:50, HousePriceMania said:

They sure....

 

Cross over from the trans thread i see ...

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Cross over from the trans thread i see ...

Overall, though, Steve believes that the “massive” housing shortage means “there is no way” the market will crash, as the supply and demand issue has still not been met. “Until it has, houses in Norfolk will keep selling. In and around Norwich we are still 30pc lower priced per square foot than in Cambridge, so it’s still a great place to buy and live.” 

Pymms n CO, Founded 2006.

Steve Pyms, born 1976.

He was 20 in 1996. should know better.

And for an Ea operating in a town where ~90% of the well paying jobs (NU) have gone over the last 20y ....

 

 

[spygirl]

19 hours ago, No One said:

I've been reading this headline in a few places. If the boe was a serious instutition, IR would have been at 4% 6 months ago never mind next year with Inflation at 18.9%.

Currency crisis is going to have to force them like in black Wednesday and they will be kicking and screaming before they torpedo the housing market

Imported inflation .. currency crisis .... cost fo servicing the debts -

Government debt: index linking is backfiring for Britain

Soaring UK inflation has exacerbated the pain of excessive debt

https://www.ft.com/content/aed8ab8d-70dc-4554-897c-a87fd2d6821e

Britain pioneered the issuance of index-linked bonds, or “linkers”, in the 1980s with the rationale that the government’s commitment to reducing inflation directly lowers borrowing costs. This would remove any temptation to inflate away debt.

That premise has proved flimsy in 2022. UK government debt now equals its annual economic output, one of the highest proportions of any developed economy. Soaring inflation, through inflation adjusting, has exacerbated the pain of excessive debt.

 

[haroldshand]

Nationwide house price data out next week

Any thoughts anyone?

I slightly suspect that you might just see the first  shoots of what many have suspected for a while now. My personal view is that ToS and the rest of them will be seen as groups that called the bubble(and it is a bubble now) way way too early and that covid will be seen as the real bubble inflating period.

I am going for a fall of -1,2%

But Hey! I have never been right about this property subject

[Don Coglione]

59 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Nationwide house price data out next week

Any thoughts anyone?

I slightly suspect that you might just see the first  shoots of what many have suspected for a while now. My personal view is that ToS and the rest of them will be seen as groups that called the bubble(and it is a bubble now) way way too early and that covid will be seen as the real bubble inflating period.

I am going for a fall of -1,2%

But Hey! I have never been right about this property subject

15 years too early!

[Chewing Grass]

On 19/08/2022 at 17:35, Chewing Grass said:

228 today, seems to be holding steady above an unprecedented 200 for the first half of my postcode.

239-223-228 over the last 14 days.

Holding steady this week at 231 after briefly being a couple of properties higher in the week.

239-223-228-231 over the last 21 days.

Previous normal Jan-June was about 140.

[Axeman123]

This twitter thread is US data, but still interesting and of course if the US housing market catches a cold etc...

 

[A_P]

On 23/08/2022 at 21:56, With a crooked smile said:

My wife had another self employed friend over at our hotel recently (the friend runs a pizza place).

She was showing her an online booking system. Someone paid cash for the accommodation while she was there. My wife's friend asked what she did with the cash. My wife replied that she put it in a drawer. Her friend then asked what she did with the paperwork. My wife replied "I throw it in the bin". They both laughed. Her friend that runs a pizza place admitted she does something similar.

You pay VAT and business rates before you even take a taxable salary. Fuck it and even the score seems to be most people's attitude that I know.

My mate that runs a storage business takes an amount equal to his mortgage and supermarket shop out in cash payments.

in this hypothetical situation, what does one do with all those notes? asking for a friend

[HousePriceMania]

15% fall in 3 WEEKS....

 

Headline 1 ( 2/3 weeks ago ):

New Zealand House Prices Fall for First Time in 11 Years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/new-zealand-housing-market-decline-gathers-pace-as-prices-drop


Headline 2:

Auckland house prices down 15 per cent with the Reserve Bank of NZ now tipping prices across the country to follow

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-27/nz-house-prices-down-as-auckland-sees-15pc-fall/101353350

[GTM]

Anecdotally supply is really picking up down in the South. I've got 784 sale listings in my search today. It was threatening to fall below 600 earlier this year. Reductions and re-listings starting becoming noticeable as well.

Better news on the rental front too. Supply still not great, but I'm now seeing reductions coming through. I had been looking for another rental earlier in the year and gave up as it wasn't possible to get a viewing if you didn't get in soon after listing. But reductions suggest that the pressure there is starting to ease as well.

[Boon]

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4622633-our-cost-of-living-crisis-the-only-solution-is-to-move-and-uproot-the-children-teens-but-aibu-wwyd?page=1

Probably was coming but I think one of the first threads I have read about forced sales. If a mortgage cost jump ain't gonna do it some of the heating bills will.

Even this is quite mild as at least they have somewhere to go (a rent free house in the family). There will be worse cases I'm sure.

Funniest things are the mums saying rent it - could be a bad choice if interest rates up/property price down and more to point what if the cost of living causes a tenant to stop paying...

Going interest only used to be an option but I bet an interest only now costs more than a repayment a few years back due to interest not being at 0....

Lodger seems to be a suggestion - if many houses suffer the same fate, could this lead to a new source of rentals? But not all houses are suitable for it.

I just think the whole attitude viewing property as some kind of golden goose should end. If they have equity they should sell, get any type of job, move somewhere else. Hard times for sure, but quite often when people say government should do something it just translates to 'we need sufficient money as a handout to enable us to live our previous standard of living without us doing anything different'

[With a crooked smile]

8 hours ago, A_P said:

in this hypothetical situation, what does one do with all those notes? asking for a friend

All branches of Trailfinders have a cash safe out the back. Stick a new porche on the drive way and a neighbour might report you to HMRC. A lot of cruises are paid for with cash.

[No One]

On 25/08/2022 at 16:19, No One said:

293->301 (+8) in last 8 days

303 +2 in last 5

[No One]

Bloomberg: Uk House Crisis and uses words crASH

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-housing-market-faces-correction-risk-on-prices-rates/vi-AA11gv9E

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

45 minutes ago, No One said:

Bloomberg: Uk House Crisis and uses words crASH

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-housing-market-faces-correction-risk-on-prices-rates/vi-AA11gv9E

 

Both up to their tits in it. Innit.

[haroldshand]

7 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Both up to their tits in it. Innit.

Everything in the UK has now turned to shit or there is an acceptance going on solid data it's about to turn to shit, Everything from social cohesion, British politics and economics.

So for a long time now there have been End of the world placard holders(ToS being the worst) predicting house price falls, if the property market in the UK somehow survives the coming months then that will be some kind of miracle and the housing market doomsayers might as well give up

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Everything in the UK has now turned to shit or there is an acceptance going on solid data it's about to turn to shit, Everything from social cohesion, British politics and economics.

So for a long time now there have been End of the world placard holders(ToS being the worst) predicting house price falls, if the property market in the UK somehow survives the coming months then that will be some kind of miracle and the housing market doomsayers might as well give up

In my mind, If it does survive, I’m off to Vegas.

[AWW]

12 hours ago, No One said:

Bloomberg: Uk House Crisis and uses words crASH

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-housing-market-faces-correction-risk-on-prices-rates/vi-AA11gv9E

 

I don't understand why having fixed-rate mortgages in place on the vast majority of houses will save the market. New entrants need to take out new mortgages at current rates. People moving from a starter home to somewhere big enough for a family will also need a new mortgage, again at current rates.

People sitting in their house enjoying a long, low, fixed rate aren't participating in the market. They cannot move prices.

Am I oversimplifying?

[Axeman123]

16 minutes ago, AWW said:

I don't understand why having fixed-rate mortgages in place on the vast majority of houses will save the market.

It won't. It will however temper one of the drivers of the only missing peice of the puzzle, supply. That said so many people think equity is a bank account I expect huge numbers of panicked sellers compared to previous housing market declines.

[Formerly]

5 hours ago, AWW said:

People sitting in their house enjoying a long, low, fixed rate aren't participating in the market. They cannot move prices.

Am I oversimplifying?

"Long" is the key word there. If you're halfway through a 2 year fix, you're looking at a big increase in costs when you remortgage.

The fix delays the arrival on the market of the houses of people who couldn't really afford them.

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, Formerly said:

"Long" is the key word there. If you're halfway through a 2 year fix, you're looking at a big increase in costs when you remortgage.

The fix delays the arrival on the market of the houses of people who couldn't really afford them.

Can delays courtesy of fixes prolong instead of prevent the downtrend?

[Formerly]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Can delays courtesy of fixes prolong instead of prevent the downtrend?

Who knows? You'd better ask spygirl