Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Bobthebuilder]

@Bus Stop Boxer, I will raise you with this one listed today. Not as mental inside, but price wise.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/126132353#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

29 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@Bus Stop Boxer, I will raise you with this one listed today. Not as mental inside, but price wise.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/126132353#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

I used to go through that village, and past that row of houses, (or where they would later be built), on the school bus 45 years ago. Doesn't look like anyones done the garden in the interim

Witchampton, Fripp country, is where a lot of the dosh goes round there, though the Gussages are pleasant enough. Hinton Martell also pricey.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I used to go through that village, and past that row of houses, (or where they would later be built), on the school bus 45 years ago. Doesn't look like anyones done the garden in the interim

Witchampton, Fripp country, is where a lot of the dosh goes round there, though the Gussages are pleasant enough. Hinton Martell also pricey.

 

When you was on that bus, I was living just a few miles west in the market town.

If that Gussage house was half the price I would buy it TBH.

[sancho panza]

US downturn taking shape it looks like. For some reason they're got more sales n marketing data than we do. 

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/18/housing-recession-sales-plunge-to-lockdown-levels-active-listings-surge-prices-begin-to-dip-price-reductions-spike-investors-pull-back/

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in July, at 4.81 million homes, was just a hair above the lockdown-June 2020 rate. Beyond the lockdown months of April-June 2020, it was the lowest sales rate since 2014. Compared to peak sales in October 2020, sales have collapsed by 29% (historic data via YCharts):

 

Investors, second home buyers, all-cash buyers pull back.

Individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 14% of the homes in July, down from a share of 16% in June and May, from 17% in April, 18% in March, 19% in February, and 22% in January, according to NAR data. In other words, individual investors and second-home buyers are pulling back faster than others.

Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates don’t work with sky-high prices.

Mortgage rates – called “holy-moly” because of the sounds homebuyers make when they see the potential mortgage payment – have been between 5% and 6% since mid-April. The daily rate tracked by Mortgage News Daily today is 5.48% for the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The Mortgage Bankers Associations weekly measure, released yesterday, came in at 5.45%. Freddie Mac’s weekly measure, released today, ticked down to 5.13% for the most recent reporting week. These rates compare to 2.9% a year ago.

 

[CVG]

 

15 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Ding ding

 

All aboard driver!!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/126165752#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media1&ref=photoCollage

 

Someones gone absolutely nuts in there.

Cinema room, innit.

Edited August 19, 2022 by CVG

[Democorruptcy]

Taxy taxy:

Quote

 

One-fifth of property sellers miss CGT payment deadline

New rules were introduced in April 2020 requiring those with taxable gains on residential property to report and pay CGT within 30 days. Under the previous system, they had up to 22 months to do so.

The deadline was extended to 60 days in October 2021 following criticism that the turnround time was too tight and that awareness of the new rules was limited.

HMRC estimates that 129,000 taxpayers paid £1.7bn of CGT on residential property in the 2021-22 tax year, a 50 per cent rise on the previous year both for taxpayer numbers and the amount paid, as coronavirus restrictions eased and property sales boomed.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F73e78ab4-1671-4806-9af7-04e65c517b31

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

Houses are unsettled....

Quote

 

Insurance companies are experiencing a surge in subsidence claims after the recent hot weather caused cracks to appear in homes across London and the south-east, in particular, drawing comparisons with 2018, when more than 20,000 properties were affected.

Loss adjuster Sedgwick on Monday registered a surge event, meaning that subsidence claims it received from insurers were for two weeks more than 200 per cent above normal levels. Heatwaves in recent weeks have sucked the moisture out of clay soils, unsettling houses.

Sedgwick expects claims to reach 400 per cent above ordinary levels in the next few weeks.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fe2dd1e47-254c-43fe-8c86-0c6b52be5c21

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

On 12/08/2022 at 11:55, Chewing Grass said:

A week later we are down to 223 so 15 have presumably sold this week or 6%.

228 today, seems to be holding steady above an unprecedented 200 for the first half of my postcode.

239-223-228 over the last 14 days.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Chewing Grass

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

228 today, seems to be holding steady above an unprecedented 200 for the first half of my postcode.

239-223-223 over the last 14 days.

Thought I would join in with listing numbers, I follow 300 square miles of rural Dorset. Todays number for sale is 818.

[Democorruptcy]

33 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thought I would join in with listing numbers, I follow 300 square miles of rural Dorset. Todays number for sale is 818.

Is that up? The number alone doesn't mean much without some context.

[Don Coglione]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Is that up? The number alone doesn't mean much without some context.

I assumed today was Bob's Day Zero.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Is that up? The number alone doesn't mean much without some context.

I thought I would join in, so that's my first search for, up for sale properties not inc SSTC.

Normally I search a 24 hour period including SSTC, witch normally is around 21 per day.

[haroldshand]

42 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thought I would join in with listing numbers, I follow 300 square miles of rural Dorset. Todays number for sale is 818.

And what is it normally?

I live in rural West Cambs and it's roughly same as it always has been with properties still selling fast and the same volume

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

And what is it normally?

I live in rural West Cambs and it's roughly same as it always has been with properties still selling fast and the same volume

 

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I thought I would join in, so that's my first search for, up for sale properties not inc SSTC.

Normally I search a 24 hour period including SSTC, witch normally is around 21 per day.

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I thought I would join in, so that's my first search for, up for sale properties not inc SSTC.

Normally I search a 24 hour period including SSTC, witch normally is around 21 per day.

Thanks for clarifying. What about both figures then, on the market but then also include SSTC? Then we can see how hot or cold the market is, e.g. Anglesey any property 810 inc SSTC, 486 still available so 40% SSTC (the % SSTC is dropping).

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks for clarifying. What about both figures then, on the market but then also include SSTC? Then we can see how hot or cold the market is, e.g. Anglesey any property 810 inc SSTC, 486 still available so 40% SSTC (the % SSTC is dropping).

 

Good idea, I should have thought of that.

Fuck me, 2156.

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Good idea, I should have thought of that.

Fuck me, 2156.

818 available out of 2156, so 62% SSTC, it was like that here earlier on. Obviously there are some properties duplicated but I think it's a decent measure of how hot or cold places are. I remember the days of 20% or less SSTC in some places!

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thought I would join in with listing numbers, I follow 300 square miles of rural Dorset. Todays number for sale is 818.

LE2 has gone above 400 recently.now 419 and 973 incl SSTC

Liecestershire has 4033 and 10060 incl SSTC

What intrigues me is that many of the LE2 sales are destined to fall through.Say we allow for 80 per month transactions then thats 7 months transactions.

Volume in that postcode isn't what it was in 2005,any uplift in inventory adds to the liquidty problems.Interesting times

[CVG]

14 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks for clarifying. What about both figures then, on the market but then also include SSTC? Then we can see how hot or cold the market is, e.g. Anglesey any property 810 inc SSTC, 486 still available so 40% SSTC (the % SSTC is dropping).

 

It's a good idea but flawed I think. My last house was still listed as SSTC on RM about 5 months after we completed. So the data is meaningless given the way listing removals are managed by the EA.

An alternative is to cut the period down to last 14 days. Then you can see how many of the recently listed/updated properties have sold in the last 14 days. This gives a better impression of activity and is an antidote to those claiming that properties are selling like hotcakes.

For example, Sussex had 773 entries in the last 14 days and 683 remain not SSTC, i.e. 88%. Only 12% sold in the first 2 weeks.

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, CVG said:

It's a good idea but flawed I think. My last house was still listed as SSTC on RM about 5 months after we completed. So the data is meaningless given the way listing removals are managed by the EA.

An alternative is to cut the period down to last 14 days. Then you can see how many of the recently listed/updated properties have sold in the last 14 days. This gives a better impression of activity and is an antidote to those claiming that properties are selling like hotcakes.

For example, Sussex had 773 entries in the last 14 days and 683 remain not SSTC, i.e. 88%. Only 12% sold in the first 2 weeks.

Lots of seasonality to take account of, particularly now, holidays finished so would expect a spike in listings anyway, it would be very odd if not the case. September should see the biggest rises.

One way of looking at last week's property doom articles is an attempt by the industry to do the BOE's job for them and fend off more rate rises, thing is it will have little effect in tampering inflation bursting out across multiple sectors which are unassociated with eh housing market. 

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

It's a good idea but flawed I think. My last house was still listed as SSTC on RM about 5 months after we completed. So the data is meaningless given the way listing removals are managed by the EA.

An alternative is to cut the period down to last 14 days. Then you can see how many of the recently listed/updated properties have sold in the last 14 days. This gives a better impression of activity and is an antidote to those claiming that properties are selling like hotcakes.

For example, Sussex had 773 entries in the last 14 days and 683 remain not SSTC, i.e. 88%. Only 12% sold in the first 2 weeks.

We don't have the tools so have to try make the best of a bad job. Personally I think 14 days is too short a period so wouldn't bother with that.

[spygirl]

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2022/08/08/mortgage-shelf-life-reaches-record-low-as-rates-continue-to-rise/

The report also found that pricing has increased for both two and five-year fixed rates for the tenth consecutive month, with five-year fixed rates surpassing four per cent for the first time since 2014.

The average five-year fixed rate is 4.08 per cent, up 0.19 per cent on the prior month and a 1.44 per cent increase on December last year.

The average two-year fixed rate is 3.95 per cent, which is 0.21 per cent higher than July and is a 1.61 per cent rise on December last year.

Moneyfacts said that this is the highest average two-year fixed rate it has recorded for over nine years.

The average Standard Variable Rate (SVR) has increased 0.11 per cent month-on-month to 5.17 per cent, which is the highest recorded since 2008 and marks eight months of consecutive increases.

[spygirl]

Thing is, I'd guess the BoE isn't 1/3 of the way to rasing rates.

5.17 svr vs. 1.75 base rate. 3.5% spread...

[VeryMeanReversion]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

The average five-year fixed rate is 4.08 per cent, up 0.19 per cent on the prior month and a 1.44 per cent increase on December last year.

Funny really that banks create that money out of nothing then charge you up to 20pc of the house value over those five years.

We keep handing over our productive efforts in return for fundamentally nothing.

[Frank Hovis]

10 hours ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

Funny really that banks create that money out of nothing then charge you up to 20pc of the house value over those five years.

We keep handing over our productive efforts in return for fundamentally nothing.

 

I would hope that a lot of people on here have stpped over the fence to the other side on that one and now leverage up their productive efforts into what are effectively multiple lifetimes of earnings through long term tax avoidance and investment.