Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[haroldshand]

10 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I would hope that a lot of people on here have stpped over the fence to the other side on that one and now leverage up their productive efforts into what are effectively multiple lifetimes of earnings through long term tax avoidance and investment.

I personally haven't ruled out tax evasion in the coming years and I will totally live with myself

[haroldshand]

Got a good walk in this morning and felt that wonderful approaching September chill you get though the weather is still pleasant in the day, just cleared my head before the bag loads of paperwork I have to do.

But it dawned on me this morning that Autumn is just about on us now and this is where the fun really starts soon, nobody can say that these are not economic doom and gloom predictions anymore, the dominoes are actually falling and the evidence is there to see and there is nothing to stop it getting worse IMO.

Only one more dominoes is still standing(like in that film V for Vendetta) and after all the BS ToS came out with along with Motley Fool and others and where ToS nearly banned me several years ago for rightly saying there was no coming crash in the medium term, I think by November there will be solid black and white data that the last dominoes has fallen.

I just cannot see any type of plate spinning that will prevent this now

[Frank Hovis]

7 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I personally haven't ruled out tax evasion in the coming years and I will totally live with myself

 

I always pay tradesmen in cash without prior discussion and never even raise the subject of tax as I don't wish to put them on the spot.  If I have work coming up then I will pay several trips to the cashpoint to assemble the necessary money as even I don't routinely hold £1,000 in cash.

I would hope that they generally just pocket it as it their work and skill that I am rewarding and I don't want the government to parasitically take 30% of it from them in order to give it to their favoured pets.

As a PAYE person tax evasion has never been a viable option.

[HousePriceMania]

Persimmon ( shite ) is back to the lows of early 2020 when prices were predicted to collapse 20%
 

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Persimmon ( shite ) is back to the lows of early 2020 when prices were predicted to collapse 20%
 

None of this type of data pushes any buttons for me though they might or might not give an indication of what is about to happen, seen thousands of these "this proves it" charts over several years now.

Only thing I give a shit about now is seeing solid MoM data repeatedly showing solid  -2% falls which I think are now coming

[No One]

8 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Persimmon ( shite ) is back to the lows of early 2020 when prices were predicted to collapse 20%
 

Count, I hope you are right this time because I'm so fucking tired of waiting.

I want to buy a house, at prices from 10 years ago or further.

[A_P]

17 minutes ago, No One said:

Count, I hope you are right this time because I'm so fucking tired of waiting.

I want to buy a house, at prices from 10 years ago or further.

With inflation at 18%? 🥴

[Phil]

2 hours ago, A_P said:

With inflation at 18%? 🥴

At 7% never mind 12% + there are gonna be a lot of defaults on cc’s and overdrafts. The ones that default, late payers are screwed for 6yrs anyway. 

[HousePriceMania]

15 hours ago, No One said:

Count, I hope you are right this time because I'm so fucking tired of waiting.

I want to buy a house, at prices from 10 years ago or further.

Count's long gone mate.  A house price collapse has always been inevitable, it looks like its going to be a  "real" term one with 60% inflation wiping out everyons savings and making them affordable to the young.

A nation robbed by bankers.

 

[Boon]

Depends where you are and what type of property you want but I can easily see London flats going back to 2012 levels

Is there much relation between inflation and house prices anyway?

The last decade saw inflation at very low levels and house price inflation at very high levels - why didn't anyone question it then? In retrospect there were many reasons for why money creation mainly went into the property market and little else - 1) low interest rates meaning no returns anywhere else, 2) relative low levels of price/earnings ratio (relative to the peak before the GFC), 3) government props for the market like HtB, 4) generous taxation regimes for landlords, 5) bullish market sentiment with expecations of capital growth. Another factor may be (to be seen if true or not) whether last decade was one for anomalously cheap goods, food and power.

We're coming into a period where all these factors are reversed - high interest rates, high historical prices, phasing out/unpopularity of government props, worse landlord taxation. The only thing that isn't opposite is market sentiment, but to my mind that is a house of cards. In most places house prices are at highs and rents are difficult to raise as people are squeezed hard by bills. So what circumstances would produce another leg up? 

The only realistic thing for now I think is very restricted supply - listing volumes still down on pre-covid. But as has been shown the trajectory of increases is sharp, and maybe it is like the proverbial fire in the nightclub - few people go at first, then everyone tries.

Even if we got more money printing there is nothing to say that some other asset class will be the recipient of the bulk of it this decade and not housing. 

At current prices I am not bullish at all, but I do see a point where I could be. Just seems to me that the bulls and bears are just fixed in their opinions no matter what the market conditions.

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Count's long gone mate.  A house price collapse has always been inevitable, it looks like its going to be a  "real" term one with 60% inflation wiping out everyons savings and making them affordable to the young.

A nation robbed by bankers.

 

I use the word "inevitable" a lot as well which is slightly disingenuous of me because  like yourself I am looking at the the data and now just using commonsense as my main tool and your reasoned brain says there really can be only one outcome.

But Hey!

There could be a few dozen here on DOSBODS and then we have the thousands on ToS all coming to the same conclusion and I am willing to bet along with myself  that 90% ish of us we still in our hearts don't believe a crash is coming until we see rock solid MoM falls, anyone claiming to be in total belief it will happen is a rarity IMO though most will say it and not truly believe it.

[Noallegiance]

Recent anecdotal:

Man rented for 6 years. A flat in Hackney. One bedroom mezzanine. Ozzy owner/landlord calls him to say he's selling.

Only other similar place for sale in the same development is £740k.

Renter calls him to ask what he'd accept as an offer from him.

£575k.

£525k counter-offer accepted. Unknown fixed rate for 5 years. Unknown deposit.

For a one bed mezzanine.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Recent anecdotal:

Man rented for 6 years. A flat in Hackney. One bedroom mezzanine. Ozzy owner/landlord calls him to say he's selling.

Only other similar place for sale in the same development is £740k.

Renter calls him to ask what he'd accept as an offer from him.

£575k.

£525k counter-offer accepted. Unknown fixed rate for 5 years. Unknown deposit.

For a one bed mezzanine.

Should have bought an RV and parked it up at Enfield Lock for 2 years.

[HousePriceMania]

Someone sent me this on twitter....

 

[With a crooked smile]

On 21/08/2022 at 10:23, haroldshand said:

I personally haven't ruled out tax evasion in the coming years and I will totally live with myself

My wife had another self employed friend over at our hotel recently (the friend runs a pizza place).

She was showing her an online booking system. Someone paid cash for the accommodation while she was there. My wife's friend asked what she did with the cash. My wife replied that she put it in a drawer. Her friend then asked what she did with the paperwork. My wife replied "I throw it in the bin". They both laughed. Her friend that runs a pizza place admitted she does something similar.

You pay VAT and business rates before you even take a taxable salary. Fuck it and even the score seems to be most people's attitude that I know.

My mate that runs a storage business takes an amount equal to his mortgage and supermarket shop out in cash payments.

[Innkeeper]

33 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

My wife had another self employed friend over at our hotel recently (the friend runs a pizza place).

She was showing her an online booking system. Someone paid cash for the accommodation while she was there. My wife's friend asked what she did with the cash. My wife replied that she put it in a drawer. Her friend then asked what she did with the paperwork. My wife replied "I throw it in the bin". They both laughed. Her friend that runs a pizza place admitted she does something similar.

You pay VAT and business rates before you even take a taxable salary. Fuck it and even the score seems to be most people's attitude that I know.

My mate that runs a storage business takes an amount equal to his mortgage and supermarket shop out in cash payments.

Private hotels and pubs are commonly offered cash for rooms as some people for various ‘entertainment’ reasons don’t want a record on their credit card statement   Also you’ve got no chance trying to pay cash at the Premier Inns of this world - computer says no.

 It’s a nice little earner and the top drawer used to fill up quite regularly 

[With a crooked smile]

4 minutes ago, Innkeeper said:

Private hotels and pubs are commonly offered cash for rooms as some people for various ‘entertainment’

I've not overtly found that. But my uncle who ran a successful country bnb in Shropshire pre Internet days had a couple turn up one day who wanted a room for just a few hours one afternoon!

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

I've not overtly found that. But my uncle who ran a successful country bnb in Shropshire pre Internet days had a couple turn up one day who wanted a room for just a few hours one afternoon!

probably stamp collectors.

[Boon]

Could also be a fishing expedition by the revenue....

Let's face it, they love going for things that they can win, so that generally means the little guy.

They also have the financial figures for every business and also the previous years returns for the existing ones so will have a good idea of the typical gross margin, turnover, expenses, etc.

Pretty sure everyone cuts corners a little but once you start cutting corners a lot there are probably automatic markers which invite a human to take a glance.

I did know of someone who got done and in a reversal of justice once you are under investigation it is not down to them to prove wrong doing but rather down to you to prove innocence.

[wherebee]

Was looking for something else and this interesting snippet caught my eye re an apartment block in Melbourne...

https://www.domain.com.au/building-profile/350-william-street-melbourne-vic-3000 

12 years, annual growth -3%.

 

I would place good money that a Chinese owner sold this.  Would tie in with the liquidation of assets overseas as ordered by the CCP
 

will all be feeding into the property collapse in Australia.  Bring it on.

 

[One percent]

Just spotted this, Australia house builder goes bust

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11140261/Oracle-Building-Corporation-Pty-Building-giant-collapses.html

Yet another Australian builder has collapsed leaving distressed customers in the lurch over hundreds of unfinished homes.

Oracle Building Corporation Pty Ltd - also known as Oracle Hunter Homes and Oracle Platinum Homes - was wound up at a general meeting on Wednesday, leaving up to 300 properties under construction. 

The company's websites have been taken down - featuring only a message saying 'account suspended' - as customers vented their distress and frustration online.  

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Option5]

See you're all wrong, the experts say so !

"No way' housing market will crash, says agent, as prices dip."

https://www.edp24.co.uk/lifestyle/property/norfolk-estate-agents-respond-to-house-price-dip-9221638

 

[AWW]

More anecdata from the landlords' rush for the exits in leafy north London.

Both flats for sale in my block still on the market and subject to further reductions. Hardly any viewings happening. Houses in the area are very sticky, seen a few chunky asking price drops - we're talking 1.5m down to 1.25 down to 1.1.

Family opposite us moved out last week after getting a S21. Decorators currently coming and going, trying to find out if the flat is being re-let, sold, or used by the landlord.

We were supposed to move out today after getting our S21, but we're still here and haven't heard anything else from the letting agent. I would like to tough it out for another few months... maybe six... maybe nine... maybe a year... and then buy a place that will do us for 20 years.

Decent family home lets get jumped on within hours of hitting Right Move.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

See you're all wrong, the experts say so !

"No way' housing market will crash, says agent, as prices dip."

https://www.edp24.co.uk/lifestyle/property/norfolk-estate-agents-respond-to-house-price-dip-9221638

 

They sure....