Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[sancho panza]

I psoted this in the main thread but it's relevant ehre.

barclays balance sheet has been expanding these last 6 months,obviously building into the bubble.

ive got them down as the msot leveraged UK bank and this does nothing but confirm my instincts,they should have been paring the balance sheet down a bit rather than levering up as inflation takes hold.

time will tell if Im right but they have equity raise writ large imho

net loans grwoing from £315 bn Q4 2018 to £395bn Q2 2022....??

[haroldshand]

19 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

volumes up and prices up.

Trouble is, prices are at all time unaffordable extremes.

You will get your property crash of some kind because that's now inevitable, but when you get it and in what form you get it is still very debatable and will be the last thing economically to head south IMO

[HousePriceMania]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I psoted this in the main thread but it's relevant ehre.

barclays balance sheet has been expanding these last 6 months,obviously building into the bubble.

ive got them down as the msot leveraged UK bank and this does nothing but confirm my instincts,they should have been paring the balance sheet down a bit rather than levering up as inflation takes hold.

time will tell if Im right but they have equity raise writ large imho

net loans grwoing from £315 bn Q4 2018 to £395bn Q2 2022....??

What's the conclusion ?  You cant lose on pwopatee ?

[Plan-b]

19 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

You will get your property crash of some kind because that's now inevitable, but when you get it and in what form you get it is still very debatable and will be the last thing economically to head south IMO

 Probably will be the last brick to fall, the cost of the last 20 years of Extraordinary Popular Delusions
and ridiculous grand designs of bullshit housing for the masses is a price everyone will end up paying for.

Humans are idiots.

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, haroldshand said:

When I mean "nothing is happening" I mean nothing is happening with prices heading down which is what many people seem to want here?. I have been told a thousand times over 5 years when I made the same remark that "I am wrong" or people "disagree" to then give me some information that is supposedly rock solid data confirming it is now about to happen, Mmmmmm

You'd be a bit deluded to think that the paradigm has not shifted.  Look at Oz/NZ/Canada, house prices there are now in falling hard.

Look what made the change.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/08/rba-torpedoes-melbourne-house-prices/


Another 0.5% next month predicted by the BoE

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11113723/Bank-England-set-deliver-0-5-rate-hike-month.html



They might try and shift the paradigm back to prop up the housing bubble but given the inflation that's going to see them strung up.

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

 Probably will be the last brick to fall, the cost of the last 20 years of Extraordinary Popular Delusions
and ridiculous grand designs of bullshit housing for the masses is a price everyone will end up paying for.

Humans are idiots.

Well, given how high house prices went in the UK given all the head winds and rate rises, you'd have to say British People are the biggest idiots in the world.

The car industry used to call the UK treasure island, because they'd pay anything they asked for a car

[No One]

Since @HousePriceMania brought up cars, I have some good content

 

 

Also housing from China:

 

 

 

It really seems to me like the planets and starts are aligned to deliver an asset bubble burst, globally, simultaneously.

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, No One said:

Since @HousePriceMania brought up cars, I have some good content

 

 

Also housing from China:

 

 

 

It really seems to me like the planets and starts are aligned to deliver an asset bubble burst, globally, simultaneously.

@DurhamBornhas predicted this, I have few reasons to doubt him,

[Boon]

Trouble is even 20% only really wipes out pandemic gains, and since there is no definition of a crash that would leave bulls and bears both saying they were right.

Of course the general theme of the other thread is that real prices adjusted for inflation will do the damage to prices as opposed to nominal changes. But you need a significant amount of money in assets which are a better inflation hedge than housing to make a gain. A lot of people don't.

General exercise; is there any Rightmove ad where you go on, look at price, previous sale price and competition and think 'wow, the owner is really stuffed'.

During a downturn these sort of ads will be ubitquitous, I don't believe they are yet. Everything being left unchecked they are coming though.

Most people in the country have turned into snides, basically acknowledging things are unfair but secretly hoping the government continues the policies which produced said unfairness in the first place. I think this kind of thinking is behind the crappy 'cost of living crisis' which is in the news all the time now.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Boon said:

Trouble is even 20% only really wipes out pandemic gains, and since there is no definition of a crash that would leave bulls and bears both saying they were right.

 

Prices in summer 2019 round us were dropping.  With wages going up and the £ worthless, I'd be happy to buy at those prices now and move everything else into commodities. 

We offered on 3 places just as the pandemic boom started.  All went to cash buyers willing to pay the full asking prices that no one local were willing to pay the previous 2 years,

20% nominal might be all we get.

Edited August 16, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, Plan-b said:

 20 years of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and ridiculous grand designs of bullshit housing for the masses

That's the title of the book right there

[Noallegiance]

[Ina]

Spoke to a colleague today who deals with new build properties.  He said there has been a sudden and marked decline in new instructions.  Also the developers on site has noticed a massive fall in new enquires.  I enquired whether it was a blip - August holidays etc.  He said no it was due to the cost of living crisis and anyone would be mad to take on a substantial mortgage right now.  
New build is very different from ordinary residential property sales as there is a 6 month time lag in that people who signed up for a new house generally do so off plan and do not complete the purchase until the house is built 6 months later.

[onlyme]

8 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

You'd be a bit deluded to think that the paradigm has not shifted.  Look at Oz/NZ/Canada, house prices there are now in falling hard.

Look what made the change.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/08/rba-torpedoes-melbourne-house-prices/


Another 0.5% next month predicted by the BoE

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11113723/Bank-England-set-deliver-0-5-rate-hike-month.html


They might try and shift the paradigm back to prop up the housing bubble but given the inflation that's going to see them strung up.

Don't forget that those figures flatter reality as well, on the way up any old shit eventually sells, on the way down the pressure to buy goes and people become more selective and it is the better properties fetching the sale prices, overpriced properties or the dross doesn't fetch a bid

[onlyme]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Prices in summer 2019 round us were dropping.  With wages going up and the £ worthless, I'd be happy to buy at those prices now and move everything else into commodities. 

We offered on 3 places just as the pandemic boom started.  All went to cash buyers willing to pay the full asking prices that no one local were willing to pay the previous 2 years,

20% nominal might be all we get.

Even with 20% nominal you'll probably end up with more for your money or a better property than 2019.  That overall 20$ drop would also mask lots of variation in falls, distressed sellers etc.  Think it will be more than 20% anyway. Just the swing away from a rising market probably means a 10% step change in what you get for your money (see previous post).

[No One]

On 12/08/2022 at 13:19, No One said:

282->286 (+4) (24hrs)(+8 in last 48 hrs)

286->298 (+12 in last 4 days)

[No One]

Who was the geezer who had this tool that allowed him to see previous price history?

It's someone on this forum.

[Chewing Grass]

Still at 219 this week - no change so far.

[Rhines]

3 minutes ago, No One said:

Who was the geezer who had this tool that allowed him to see previous price history?

It's someone on this forum.

Hi, I use this one with Chrome + Rightmove, there may be others https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/property-log/jccihedpilhidcbkconacnalppdeecno?hl=en-GB

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Rhines said:

Hi, I use this one with Chrome + Rightmove, there may be others https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/property-log/jccihedpilhidcbkconacnalppdeecno?hl=en-GB

That's the one I use.

[onlyme]

23 minutes ago, No One said:

Who was the geezer who had this tool that allowed him to see previous price history?

It's someone on this forum.

The property bee tool?

[Formerly]

37 minutes ago, No One said:

Who was the geezer who had this tool that allowed him to see previous price history?

It's someone on this forum.

Don't know who you are referring to but Patma does the job for rightmove and zoopla.

[Boon]

1 hour ago, Ina said:

Spoke to a colleague today who deals with new build properties.  He said there has been a sudden and marked decline in new instructions.  Also the developers on site has noticed a massive fall in new enquires.  I enquired whether it was a blip - August holidays etc.  He said no it was due to the cost of living crisis and anyone would be mad to take on a substantial mortgage right now.  
New build is very different from ordinary residential property sales as there is a 6 month time lag in that people who signed up for a new house generally do so off plan and do not complete the purchase until the house is built 6 months later.

The builders are the original bagholders, together with the shared ownership/help to buyers. 

https://insidecroydon.com/2022/08/15/towering-prices-leave-lq-with-1500-plus-unsold-homes/

I think everywhere in London has these type of companies. Especially in outer London the case for £500k+ flats is not strong because there is little premium on the area, a house can be had for that price, and a declining perception of shared ownership (you only own a fraction of the property, but are liable for all the expenses). So basically these things were built just to say they did affordable homes, even though it was only via a scheme.

A normal business stocked up like this would reduce prices to clear inventory but here doing that would reduce the prices on similar flats, piss off existing owners and reduce customer confidence for the new flats. As well, virtually all the housebuilders at present have really strong balance sheets so riding it out isn't a problem.

Some developments look quite stupid, ie a few years after they have been built they are still trying to flog the new ones, while some are reselling for £100k less. Of course the prop is the reason, but strangely nobody tells the naive potential buyer for the new one that they will be massively over-paying.

[dnb24]

On 22/07/2022 at 18:27, dnb24 said:

Down this week- back to 1200.

@HousePriceManiaHuge increase this week (and it’s only Tuesday)- now over 1300

Edited August 16, 2022 by dnb24

[Ina]

It’s also massively to do with exchange of contracts.  With residential property sales this generally occurs 1 week prior to completion.  In respect of new build exchange happens the moment you sign up and then there is a very long wait until the house is actually built.  Then there is the snagging as all house builders employ a specialist team of contractors to sort out the defects and avoid adverse publicity.