Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Wight Flight]

37 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Repayment mortgages don’t work that way in the U.K. They apply annuity type amortisation, the idea being that if mortgage rates stayed the same for the entire term your monthly payment would remain the same for the entire period. So you make smaller repayments and pay more in interest at the outset. Every month the interest component of your mortgage payment will decrease and the capital repayment will increase.

On a 25 year mortgage at 3% you’ll repay ~2.5% of the mortgage in the first year. So all in ~5.5%

Yes, I overlooked that.

Still, my last place sold for £500k. If I had put down 10%, that would have cost me £2062 per month. Over double what I was paying in rent!

The tenants aren't going to be buying the houses unless they drop in price dramatically.

[sarahbell]

On 10/07/2022 at 07:08, CVG said:

Just had a quick look. This is what is on offer to new entrants:

"alpha pension scheme

If this is the first time you’ve worked for a public sector employer, you’ll be able to choose between alpha (a ‘career average’ scheme) and partnership (a ‘defined contribution’ arrangement).

In alpha your pension builds up quickly when you add your member contribution to your generous employers contribution. For example, if you earn between £23,101 and £45,500, you will contribute 5.45% of your salary and your employer will contribute 27.1%, meaning for every £1 you contribute, your employer will contribute almost £5."

including working for ....... The Pensions Regulator.

 

That's lovely. BUT FUCKING INSANE

 

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

This one is ludicrous; it's just popped up as lead story of the local paper.

Newquay one-bed 'detached villa' put to let for £1,400 a month

Living here will cost over £16,000 a year - and that's before you factor in gas bills

 

Here is the floorplan of this mighty "villa"

 

It also has no parking and in case you were thinking its saving grace might be a tremendous seaview it dioesn't have that either.

Anyone who rents this is utterly demented.

Looking at the dreadfully overdone interior I suspect that this is someone having done up their garden shed to be  a holiday let only to find that there were no takers so chancing their arm that they might find someone desperate enough for somewhere to live to pay that.

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/newquay-one-bed-detached-villa-7454572

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125963519#/floorplan?activePlan=1&channel=RES_LET

They could at least have made the fucking bed.

[No One]

21 hours ago, No One said:

278->282 (+4)

282->286 (+4) (24hrs)(+8 in last 48 hrs)

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

They could at least have made the fucking bed.

 

I did like that they had labelled it the "master bedroom" despite it being the only bedroom.

master bedroom

 

noun

1. A main bedroom in a house.
2. A room in a house, in which the head of the house sleeps.
3. the principal bedroom in a house; usually occupied by the head of the household

[Boon]

3 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Letting out a spare room is a great way to get evicted.

You would think , but I think that depends on the landlord and whether other people grass you up. Some landlords will not care as they are not around. So as long as someone pays on time, takes care of the house, etc, it is fine.

After all, how long would it take to issue someone notice and get it to court if they don't co-operate? I would bet this type of landlord cares about money more than morals, because housing shortages have been in this area for years and if you wanted your home to go to a local, there would be other avenues not involving Rightmove.

As for neighbours grassing, I don't think they are likely to unless those Airbnb tenants start holding parties and being loud, which is not likely if they are renting a shared room. 

I would imagine that there are many houses in these streets which are real lucrative in summer this way so it would be in their interests to not fall out with each other and start tit-for-tat grassing.

Either way I bet some of those applicants to that house have bid it up with some sort of sub rental in mind.

[Wight Flight]

5 minutes ago, Boon said:

Either way I bet some of those applicants to that house have bid it up with some sort of sub rental in mind

I think it is more likely that they are cash rich.

Down here, if you want to buy you won't get a look in unless you are a cash buyer / mortgage approved. If you have something to sell you won't even get a viewing.

And if there is a chance of a viewing, you need to see it the day it becomes available. Therefore the logic is you sell up in Surrey and rent something here whilst you are looking to buy. An extra £500 a month for six months is small change when you are sitting on £0.5m in cash.

The same will be true in the South West.

[Boon]

Yeah true.

There clearly is some other factor driving prices.

I'd love to know what it went for in the end, as there is no competition for it. It must be great for the estate agent as they could play people off against each other. Seeing as the listing is still live maybe it is still ongoing....

Did see a house here :https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/122351930#/?channel=RES_BUY, don't think I've ever seen a listing featuring 'vandalised'. Looks like someone renenged on paying a contractor...

[Wight Flight]

36 minutes ago, Percy Hotspur said:

Within 10 miles of my location in Cheshire, the number of houses for sale, according to Rightmove was
Aug 9th - 1366

Aug 10th -1377

Aug 11th - 1385

Aug 12th - 1397

I don't know whether this is normal summer activity, or scum landlords getting out.

Just putting this here as a marker.

Excluding park homes, the Island currently has 1,034 properties for sale.

2419 if you include SSTC

Yet again this stacks up against Cornwall, which has 3.9x our population, 3,753 homes for sale (8,714 if you include SSTC)

 

[Wight Flight]

To add - we have 63 properties to rent, @Frank Hovis has 208 so still in ratio.

[spunko]

Not quite on topic but sort of related. I've had my eye on a decent domain name that is being sold in EUR. Because it's not cheap, it makes sense to wait to see if the price in GBP drops, like it has done in the recent past. Am I stupid in continuing to wait or does this make sense given the economic environment/state of the pound/state of the Euro?

 

[Bobthebuilder]

Domainpricecrash.co.uk.

By any chance?

[Option5]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Domainpricecrash.co.uk.

By any chance?

Linuxbods.co.uk ?

[ILikeCake]

Viewed a house this afternoon.  Not desperate to move but planning on extending family at some point and would like more space.  House came up on a street we like and was worth a look.  The house only came on to the market Wed.  Apparently we were the 7th viewing and 2 people had already offered full asking price so it was probably going to go to sealed bids. 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Yes, I overlooked that.

Still, my last place sold for £500k. If I had put down 10%, that would have cost me £2062 per month. Over double what I was paying in rent!

The tenants aren't going to be buying the houses unless they drop in price dramatically.

Yeah I did this for our place.Found out recently what the LL paid and that was way over the odds admittedly.Just done the calcs and we pay £1400,100% mortgage at 3% would be IO £2132 or £4k repyament.At 4% it £2833 or £4886.

Whern the roof goes he can have it back.I'm happy enough arbing the gap between rent and repayment.

Sadly we're going to have to move in the next few years wehn the repairs come due.

Buying a hosue for us would involve selling some of our oilies/goldies/baccy stocks and that's jsut not gonna happen.

4 hours ago, Boon said:

You would think , but I think that depends on the landlord and whether other people grass you up. Some landlords will not care as they are not around. So as long as someone pays on time, takes care of the house, etc, it is fine.

After all, how long would it take to issue someone notice and get it to court if they don't co-operate? I would bet this type of landlord cares about money more than morals, because housing shortages have been in this area for years and if you wanted your home to go to a local, there would be other avenues not involving Rightmove.

As for neighbours grassing, I don't think they are likely to unless those Airbnb tenants start holding parties and being loud, which is not likely if they are renting a shared room. 

I would imagine that there are many houses in these streets which are real lucrative in summer this way so it would be in their interests to not fall out with each other and start tit-for-tat grassing.

Either way I bet some of those applicants to that house have bid it up with some sort of sub rental in mind.

Costs a lot of moeny and time to evict someone,S21 is jsut a polite request to vacate.Evictions costs-only about £250 can berecovered.

 

reality is that if someone's paying the rent and not wrekcing the place ,most LL's would leave you in situ.

If someone was full time air bnbing,that might be different as more likely to get wrekced.

@With a crooked smile for an LL's take?

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Not quite on topic but sort of related. I've had my eye on a decent domain name that is being sold in EUR. Because it's not cheap, it makes sense to wait to see if the price in GBP drops, like it has done in the recent past. Am I stupid in continuing to wait or does this make sense given the economic environment/state of the pound/state of the Euro?

 

Possibly the only currency that's got worse prospects than GBP long term....

Pesoanlly I'd buy it if the offer price is reasonable value.Only you'd know that though.Forex won't make much dioffernce form what this chart is showing

[spunko]

1 hour ago, ILikeCake said:

Viewed a house this afternoon.  Not desperate to move but planning on extending family at some point and would like more space.  House came up on a street we like and was worth a look.  The house only came on to the market Wed.  Apparently we were the 7th viewing and 2 people had already offered full asking price so it was probably going to go to sealed bids. 

Not calling the EA a liar, but they said similar to me before I bought this place. It was just after the Brexit vote, and clearly all of these mystery buyers offering full price disappeared into the ether as it eventually sold about 4 months later for about 10% less than the asking price.

[ILikeCake]

1 minute ago, spunko said:

Not calling the EA a liar, but they said similar to me before I bought this place. It was just after the Brexit vote, and clearly all of these mystery buyers offering full price disappeared into the ether as it eventually sold about 4 months later for about 10% less than the asking price.

I would agree with you but that was direct from the owner who showed us around.  Turns out it was someone my Mrs actually knew through work and seemed pretty genuine.  Luckily the house wasn't exactly what we what and we can afford to wait for something better suited to us so don't need to get involved. 

[No One]

3 hours ago, spunko said:

Not quite on topic but sort of related. I've had my eye on a decent domain name that is being sold in EUR. Because it's not cheap, it makes sense to wait to see if the price in GBP drops, like it has done in the recent past. Am I stupid in continuing to wait or does this make sense given the economic environment/state of the pound/state of the Euro?

 

your devotion to putting up a forum for dedicated housing/economy nerds for no personal gain is admirable mate

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

Not calling the EA a liar, but they said similar to me before I bought this place. It was just after the Brexit vote, and clearly all of these mystery buyers offering full price disappeared into the ether as it eventually sold about 4 months later for about 10% less than the asking price.

In what universe is offering 10% below asking "cheeky"?

The media really has been complicit in brainwashing the Great British Public when it comes to negotiating on property prices.

https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1652878/A-Place-in-the-Sun-buyer-cheeky-offer-accepted-France

[GTM]

This anecdotal could probably go in a few places, but I have a mate who (is one of the few who) works in the public sector. He's put in for a transfer from the South to, well he'll tell you where before too long. 

His basic reasoning is he has enough for a deposit for a place up North and he'll be able to pay the remaining mortgage off in 1x years before retiring. His other option of staying here means he's looking at renting for the rest of his life. One kid left in education (15) who has indicated that if he does move they'd move for 6th form in preference to living with his ex.

Personally my plans once the kids finish school (2025) are similar. We could buy a shithole down here then save for a pension all over again. Or we could go where the missus is from or where I'm from and buy something better and cheaper. 

There was a mini baby boom in the South around the mid 2000s. I wonder how many others are thinking the same way and are nearing the point where they'll act on it. I know others on here have hinted of doing similar. If people with 20+ years experience and good jobs are struggling, how the hell are the ones coming behind possibly managing? 

[No One]

 

from FT

[Noallegiance]

 

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Percy Hotspur said:

I agree. If I ever met Spunko in real life, I'd offer to buy that bloke a pint of snakebite and would allow him to have a fondle of my current bird (but only for 5 minutes, mind - anything beyond that is taking a right fkg liberty. If Spunko went beyond that 5 minutes and strayed into the 6 minute territory, I'd go full on Frank Doberman and say, "HEY SPUNKO, I ADMIRE YOUR DEFTNESS, POISE AND INTELLECTUAL PROWESS AT ASSEMBLING AN INFORMATIVE WEBSITE PHENOMENON, BUT, NO, YOU'VE HAD YER 5 MINUTES SO TAKE YOUR FILTHY HANDS OFF ME JULIE AND PISS OFF!).

Spunko knows im

a dick but at least I’m an honest dick because he knows who I actually am 

[haroldshand]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

 

But this sadly is not happening in the UK, not even remotely close.

It's fair to say that the UK is now burning and there is no corner of our economy that is not being hit badly and with just about everyone accepting that come October the shit will really hit the fan with of course the one major exception PROPERTY.

Sorry but I am just not even seeing an ounce of panic yet though there are some tiny tiny signs of discomfort we still have 10,000's of immigrants turning up monthly and little new housing being built.

It's just not happening boys and looks like ToS are going to have to continue whinging for a few more years/decades yet

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

But this sadly is not happening in the UK, not even remotely close.

It's fair to say that the UK is now burning and there is no corner of our economy that is not being hit badly and with just about everyone accepting that come October the shit will really hit the fan with of course the one major exception PROPERTY.

Sorry but I am just not even seeing an ounce of panic yet though there are some tiny tiny signs of discomfort we still have 10,000's of immigrants turning up monthly and little new housing being built.

It's just not happening boys and looks like ToS are going to have to continue whinging for a few more years/decades yet

There’s no panic anywhere about anything (ok a bit about the heat ) saying that my mate In Telford who is still on holiday has slowly realised I might be correct about interest rates going above 5%