Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Got a degree in economics,been in the game 20 years but still financially illiterate..........

Words fail me.and vendors like him have been flogging mortgages on the basis of the BoE having your back for the last twenty years......people like him are part of the problem.

[The Grey Man]

6 hours ago, Boon said:

Second tier cities are even less.

Thing is I don't think the average old person in the country has any interest at all in moving somewhere where they can't speak the lingo, or even into another culture. Also think healthcare is a consideration.

Integration rates must be really low, I think an oldie would much rather retire in Hastings instead of somewhere in Greece.

Exception must be those old men who end up in Thailand.

I ain't that old. I still do not get a retirement visa for another two years!

[tank]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Got a degree in economics,been in the game 20 years but still financially illiterate..........

Words fail me.and vendors like him have been flogging mortgages on the basis of the BoE having your back for the last twenty years......people like him are part of the problem.

He is a mere symptom of the disease. 

Either way, this week the so called 'independent' BoE have done away with the requirements for lenders to stress test a punter's ability to pay if IRs are increased. 

As a mortgage 'broker', he should be very happy about this. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by tank

[Balding Badger]

7 hours ago, tank said:

Most of Europe will be better off because their immigration levels are much lower.

For all their rhetoric, the Tories are worse that Blair era Labour was on immigration.

Officially 7 million extra people since 2010 and a record 1 million net in the last year alone and, unlike when we're were in the EU, almost all of them from the third world. That means huge extended families and a lot more people. All done to pump the property market and low wage service economy.

On immigration alone, sure. But a lot of europe will have worse inflation, higher energy prices and even absolute shortages. Recessions in some parts of the EU will probably be much deeper than our own (although we can't be certain of that and I'm not complacent at all). I don't think too many europeans will be sitting at home consoling themselves that 'at least we're not Britain'. You have to remember that in the basket case that is the Eurozone, interest rates have reached the dizzying heights of 0% so far in their battle with inflation. That is a good indicator of the state they are in.

[haroldshand]

I am like everyone else at the moment as I watch the UK in the first stages of economically  burning and know factually in my own head these are not wild predictions but where some parts are really happening and some will get worse, inflation, recession, loss of businesses and jobs.

Read all the front pages of the newspapers today, all the blogs and news websites and you know it's coming as well as just looking at the hard facts now coming out daily.

But there is one massive exemption and it's why once in a while I will return to a thread like this one to see if there is yet a post out there that makes it clear in my mind that the property market is about to collapse, as of yet I have not even come close to finding one though my money is slightly in favour of a "correction" of sorts(only just) it is still the toss of a coin

[sancho panza]

43 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I am like everyone else at the moment as I watch the UK in the first stages of economically  burning and know factually in my own head these are not wild predictions but where some parts are really happening and some will get worse, inflation, recession, loss of businesses and jobs.

Read all the front pages of the newspapers today, all the blogs and news websites and you know it's coming as well as just looking at the hard facts now coming out daily.

But there is one massive exemption and it's why once in a while I will return to a thread like this one to see if there is yet a post out there that makes it clear in my mind that the property market is about to collapse, as of yet I have not even come close to finding one though my money is slightly in favour of a "correction" of sorts(only just) it is still the toss of a coin

If it goes it'll be the last thing to go. As Dr Tim has said so eloquently, without the asset price/credit  spiral in the banking sector,the UK is utterly screwed.These days selling overpriced dwellings and our govt debt are our main businesses.It works until it doesn't. 

 

Depressing but true. 

As well, we'll generally not know it's occurred for sure until 6 months afterwards. 

House prices used to be an economic end in themselves. These days I see them in the context of a potential sterling crash which will make our worries about house prices seem rather mundane

Edited August 5, 2022 by sancho panza

[Sasquatch]

Well that's interesting. I remarked on this topic last month that all of the houses in the village had gone SSTC. Two have come back on to the market in the last couple of days. They are perfectly decent properties but looked expensive to me.  I am presuming that the rising base rate is starting to create some jitters.

[sancho panza]

17 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Well that's interesting. I remarked on this topic last month that all of the houses in the village had gone SSTC. Two have come back on to the market in the last couple of days. They are perfectly decent properties but looked expensive to me.  I am presuming that the rising base rate is starting to create some jitters.

Could just be some initial dislocations in mortgage approvals. 0.5% rise roughly 40% hike in IRs. All of a sudden a lot of 2/5 year fixed rates will get pulled,not necessarily because the money hasn't been sourced but because they'll be a better margin for the bank if they renegotiate t he loan in a week or two.

 

That's a he'll of aper centage jump right there.initially should be positive for the banks

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

"I think more intervention by govt is going to be needed"

How does 5% by April sound? 😎

Prick.

Reminds me of this 
 

A series worth watching if you have a northern/Scottish sense of humour.

[haroldshand]

I am just reading the Daily Telegraph live economic news feed and already they have four articles discussing todays Halifax house price data and house prices in general and between the media, lenders, BOE and politicians you know where their bread is buttered and their true aims.

For starters the BOE are stressing "house prices falls are very unlikely" and then the Halifax spokesman stresses that the market is likely to come under "pressures " because basically it will not produce the double digit inflation that for some reason is a good thing when it comes to the housing market, all of the coverage is basically "house price falls bad thing" or "house price falls will not happen"

Watch what they do rather than what they say is again the way to go here, when I hear politicians talking about "poor priced out under 40 year olds" I just hear white noise these days

[Calcutta]

The first RM results page for my very specific search criteria (avg 50 results) is currently 100% either reduced or listed last week for less than they were going sstc for in april/may. 

[Noallegiance]

11 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

For starters the BOE are stressing "house prices falls are very unlikely"

Don't worry. It's contained.

[HousePriceMania]

Same old, same old...

 

 

[Dave Bloke]

14 hours ago, XswampyX said:

Can you imagine 15% inflation across the whole of the UK's population v's 11 million mortgages? Spiv bastards that owe on 5+ properties.

Spiv bastard no1 - "Yeah it's terrible, my portfolio is sinking up my own arse and discolouring my fake veneers, all my scum tenants are flipping me off, innit."

Spiv bastard no2 - "Yeah, I don't care about you obviously, but my tenant's can't even fill up my mini these days! What are they spending it all on? Food? Heating? Don't they realise we are providing a service? Hair products aren't fucking free!"

Spiv bastard no1 - "Yeah, I will have to get a job if this carries on. "

 

Spiv bastard #3 - glad I loaded up on debt, with inflation and my double digit salary increase and those of my tenants those loans have evaporated like tears in the sun

Edited August 5, 2022 by Dave Bloke

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Same old, same old...

 

 

Somebody tell him he can't be Chancellor from his jail cell.

[apples]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11084115/Is-Britains-buy-let-bubble-burst-Rising-mortgage-payments-push-landlords-sell.html

Is Britain's buy-to-let and second homes bubble about to BURST? How rising mortgages and falling property prices are set to push up to 20% of landlords into selling... as building society limits lending for those who already have a house

• New figures show as many as 20 percent of landlords are considering selling up some or all of their properties
• They are being persuaded due to rising borrowing costs sparked by recent rises in interest rates, say experts
• Landlords also face increases in the cost of their insurance and maintenance fees, according to lettings chiefs
• It comes as new figures released today show how property prices fell month-on-month for first time in a year
• Experts say landlords and second home owners may to look to sell while homes are 'at the top of the market'

Oh noes! Poor BTL landlords only take 7p in profit for every pound of rent:

Halfway down the fine article:

Double hell for homeowners: Halifax reports average UK house prices have FALLEN for first month since June 2021 as interest rate hike raises mortgage payments for millions

Quote

Average house prices in the UK fell by 0.1 per cent month-on-month in July - a £365 fall in cash terms - according newly released data from Halifax. It means a typical UK property now costs £293,221, according to the bank.

"double hell" = £720 loss?

[Boon]

A £290k place might rent for what, £1,200?

3p for tax isn't realistic I don't think, and more like double, that's just for a basic-rate taxpayer.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Hopefully Truss Kwarteng etc have identified the first and biggest honeypot to pay for all the previous largesse.

Thats what its going to have to come down to.

From the ex pat 55 year old, who is waiting for the solicitors inheritance cheque, while some minimum wage 27 year old wipes her mothers arse in a 3 story Hampstead townhouse, to the "blessed" BTLers.

Right here is where you start paying.

How they sell that, and hope to win an election in 2 years time is another story.

[Herby]

On 04/08/2022 at 14:07, Don Coglione said:

Winchester?

If , move.

About 20 miles away. 

Winchester's got a bit more going for it, been there a couple of times. 

This place is much smaller

[Stuey]

55 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Hopefully Truss Kwarteng etc have identified the first and biggest honeypot to pay for all the previous largesse.

Thats what its going to have to come down to.

The feminazis keep trying to push for a Bachelor Tax due to all those rich MGTOWs who won't wife up some tatted ruin a day before she hits the wall. 

But I do think they'll go for housing wealth in some manner. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Stuey

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

A £290k place might rent for what, £1,200?

3p for tax isn't realistic I don't think, and more like double, that's just for a basic-rate taxpayer.

I pay £1,200 for what is apparently a £600k place.

 

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Boon said:

A £290k place might rent for what, £1,200?

I rent a £695k, sorry 650, sorry 615, sorry 599 (and still not shifting!) place for 1600.

[GTM]

11 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Well that's interesting. I remarked on this topic last month that all of the houses in the village had gone SSTC. Two have come back on to the market in the last couple of days. They are perfectly decent properties but looked expensive to me.  I am presuming that the rising base rate is starting to create some jitters.

I'm looking for something with more downstairs space. Because I can't search on plot area or downstairs floor space or anything useful like that, I have quite a wide search but instantly reject a lot of stuff on there. The stuff that would be of interest has been selling quick and hasn't been appearing again. Until now. Last 2 days, 4 from my ideal but far too pricey list have re-listed having been "sold". Also a couple of price reductions. This is unheard of. Though I note the "sold" places have been re-listed with the price expectations as before. 

So while the rental market seems to have really dried up, very good but pricey second hand houses are now struggling to sell. We seem to be on the verge of a real turn. 

Provided the Government doesn't step in to "help" then things might start heading our way. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by GTM
Reworded for clarity

[Chewing Grass]

On 01/08/2022 at 19:47, Chewing Grass said:

You've just prompted me to do another first 3 digit postcode search round me, not done one for 2 weeks, it was 195 IIRC.

Fuck, its now 214.

Listings up 7.5% from 4 weeks ago.

Simmering nicely.

@Bus Stop Boxer holy fuck, I've just redone my first 3 digit postcode search and its now 237 and looks like panic selling (or trying to) has started in earnest.

That's a 10% increase in 4 days.

New listings are all mundane stuff.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Chewing Grass

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

@Bus Stop Boxer holy fuck, I've just redone my first 3 digit postcode search and its now 237 and looks like panic selling (or trying to) has started in earnest.

That's a 10% increase in 4 days.

New listings are all mundane stuff.

Can we just skip to the bit where the third one is £65k?