Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[GTM]

29 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

UK current asking prices down -1.12% this month with listings in the SQ/Wales surging.

South. Rentals are unbelievably tight. But I'm seeing places come up for sale where they've attempted to rent them. That chimes with the increased supply of second hand houses for sale I'm seeing. 

My guess is that rentals can't generate the rent landscum need to keep their heads above water, so they are quietly attempting to exit. Good luck with that. 

[Boon]

Still some way to go ain't it?

Of course every market is different but the graph still shows a massive difference in availability of properties - around 450k pre-pandemic, maybe at 275k today so somewhere in region of 175k off?

That is a huge number, and in that context there is no surprise that in some areas you saw those bidding wars. Because even if demand decreased, supply decreased at a much quicker rate.

However economic conditions are like no other time on that graph, so there has to be some hope that as time goes on the gradient of that line can get steeper, at least until there are some measures to ease those conditions.

[HousePriceMania]

31 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Listings up 7.5% MoM round me.

What region ?

SW up 8%. Wales up 10% from my data.

 

[Wight Flight]

18.1% YOY for us.

https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/20593055.isle-wight-house-price-growth-soars-south-east-average/

Average house went up £45k. Which is almost exactly double the average take home pay here.

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What region ?

SW up 8%. Wales up 10% from my data.

 

NW

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

18.1% YOY for us.

https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/20593055.isle-wight-house-price-growth-soars-south-east-average/

Average house went up £45k. Which is almost exactly double the average take home pay here.

We are talking about the volumes of listings going up, not the average listing price...

[Democorruptcy]

Builder shares not doing well so far today BDEV -4%, TW -3%, PSN -3%, BKG -4%.

[Wight Flight]

34 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

We are talking about the volumes of listings going up, not the average listing price...

Can we not discuss both?

I don't have data on listing volumes.

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Builder shares not doing well so far today BDEV -4%, TW -3%, PSN -3%, BKG -4%.

Maybe the city spivs follow UK PL

[HousePriceMania]

42 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

NW

Let me check....

4.29% increase in listings

Average price up 2.2% in a month !!!

N.E. was up 5% and prices down -0.5%

 

It's gonig to be an interesting year or two.

[Dave Bloke]

21 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The higher the high, the worse the comedown.

11% rise in a year

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, Dave Bloke said:

11% rise in a year

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/02/uk-house-prices-cost-of-living-crisis-price-rise

 

Whee!!!!

I have finally noticed a stalling of house sales down in coastal Cornwall, as though people, rather than rushing straight in so as not to "miss the boat", are actually thinking about the fortune which they are paying for an unremarkable house in a county where it rains rather a lot.

[honkydonkey]

50 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Whee!!!!

I have finally noticed a stalling of house sales down in coastal Cornwall, as though people, rather than rushing straight in so as not to "miss the boat", are actually thinking about the fortune which they are paying for an unremarkable house in a county where it rains rather a lot.

county country where it rains rather a lot.

[Herby]

Anecdotal.  

Someone I know has just put their house up for sale.

4-bedroom, detached, small town.

About 106 square metres.

Asking for offers over £650,000.

Apparently an open day was booked this week and only 5 people were interested. 

They were annoyed with the estate agent..

The numbers of viewings I've experienced in a similar bracket towards the beginning of the year were 25 to 50 viewings per property.

Lots more coming on the market around my way, including definite ex-rentals. 2.5-bedroom, 70-80sqm terraces are asking £520k plus. Three bedroom semis around 90 square metres asking £575,000.

Quite a few have stalled now. 

 

[Chewing Grass]

I'm up to 219 now, that's another 2% since yesterday.

 

[Caravan Monster]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Builder shares not doing well so far today BDEV -4%, TW -3%, PSN -3%, BKG -4%.

Anecdotal so not worth a lot, at my end of the building trade amongst the independents and self employed scum things are feeling a touch slower. Aug through October are generally big months for work to be commissioned, so will know more soon. 

[Ash4781b]

20 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Builder shares not doing well so far today BDEV -4%, TW -3%, PSN -3%, BKG -4%.

My guess the lead in for the monetary policy interest rate decision. Could be looking at +0.75%. I expect they will go +0.5% but would not be a huge surprise to go +1.0%

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

My guess the lead in for the monetary policy interest rate decision. Could be looking at +0.75%. I expect they will go +0.5% but would not be a huge surprise to go +1.0%

"+0.5% is on the table" but I'll go +0.25%

[Axeman123]

37 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

My guess the lead in for the monetary policy interest rate decision. Could be looking at +0.75%. I expect they will go +0.5% but would not be a huge surprise to go +1.0%

I wish that was a credible forecast. Somewhat like @Democorruptcy I think +0.25% is a much more likely tail risk than +0.75%, although I am still expecting 0.5%. 

[haroldshand]

15 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Whee!!!!

I have finally noticed a stalling of house sales down in coastal Cornwall, as though people, rather than rushing straight in so as not to "miss the boat", are actually thinking about the fortune which they are paying for an unremarkable house in a county where it rains rather a lot.

Cornish scenery has always impressed me, but from personal experience and some very close personal relationships that have lasted 35 years now in the armed forces and regular visits it has always struck me the high level of violence from many of the locals in that beautiful area from people from seemingly "good backgrounds"

I am not talking a little hand bags at down bitch slapping or one of those silly "C'mon then ****" as they end up doing nothing. I have never witnessed outside the actual forces such nasty hardcore violence on so many occasions as I have done in Cornwall. If I did live there it would have to be in one of those really nice spots and right now the price is well out of my league where as I could afford a stunning place on North Norfolk coast

[haroldshand]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I wish that was a credible forecast. Somewhat like @Democorruptcy I think +0.25% is a much more likely tail risk than +0.75%, although I am still expecting 0.5%. 

You have heard the saying when it comes to politicians and institutions like the BOE is to not even bother listening to what they say what they intend to do but  just watch what they actually do. ALL of their actions in reality are pointing towards not giving a flying fuck about economic inflation and saving the housing market and c***s with massive debts.

I am looking at the housing market today and after only just hearing about the Nationwide data 5 minutes ago and I see at this critical moment a perfect equilibrium, a pointy pyramid with a perfectly balanced flat line sitting perfectly level with only the slightest of imbalance/negativity  on either side to send it crash to one outcome or the other.

Tomorrow and the BOE meeting has the potential to be the start of the oil tanker finally turning but like you say I am not so sure.

[Curious Pattern]

15 hours ago, Herby said:

The numbers of viewings I've experienced in a similar bracket towards the beginning of the year were 25 to 50 viewings per property.

Round my way, a desirable village in the South East, the market seems very slow compared to the feeding frenzy 1-2 years ago. Houses are being brought on at record high prices but very few buyers are biting. An ex-rental house on my road went up a few weeks ago and has only had a handful of viewings. It feels like estate agents have finally pushed beyond what most people are willing/able to pay for a nice area.

[Frank Hovis]

38 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Cornish scenery has always impressed me, but from personal experience and some very close personal relationships that have lasted 35 years now in the armed forces and regular visits it has always struck me the high level of violence from many of the locals in that beautiful area from people from seemingly "good backgrounds"

I am not talking a little hand bags at down bitch slapping or one of those silly "C'mon then ****" as they end up doing nothing. I have never witnessed outside the actual forces such nasty hardcore violence on so many occasions as I have done in Cornwall. If I did live there it would have to be in one of those really nice spots and right now the price is well out of my league where as I could afford a stunning place on North Norfolk coast

 

All I can say is - that really isn't my experience.

The only place I have known anyone to say that they feel unsafe on a night out is Penzance; and I've always find it absolutely fine.  Luck of the draw.

I suppose it depends where you go.  As with many counties there are rough towns and villages where unemployment is high as are drug use and crime.  I lived in Gloucester and saw a lot of Gloucestershire.  The only rough places of which I was aware were, in Gloucester, the Barton street area of the centre (tbh you only had to look at it!) and Coney Hill - a big rough council estate.

Outside of Gloucester you had loads of picture postcard villages but then you had Coleford and Cinderford in the Forest of Dean which were rough as old boots.

Tbh I would be guessing as to which were the rough places in Cornwall as I've never bothered having a night out in a down-at-heel inland place.  I have read of violence in St Austell town centre amongst druggies but, unlike anywhere else in Cornwall, this has had a modern out of place shopping centre inserted into the middle of it which is mostly empty during the evening as no-one lives there so you are going to find junkies and yoofs hanging around, bored and looking for trouble.

The absolute worst bestial violence I have read of in the SW, on multiple occasions rather than isolated incidents, and heard a few things about from a retired police officer in the family have surprisingly enough been in Weston and Burnham on the north coast of Somerset.  Whilst these remain decent places to visit or go on holiday, outside of the centre have been built huge sprawling housing estates where drugs and crime are rife.  And when junkies and drug dealers get into a fued the violence is of a horror film degree.

[haroldshand]

32 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

All I can say is - that really isn't my experience.

The only place I have known anyone to say that they feel unsafe on a night out is Penzance; and I've always find it absolutely fine.  Luck of the draw.

You are not too far away 

Most of the people I knew/know are around the Truro , Plymouth  and Bodmin area, many of them you might even see in blazers and like butter would not melt in their mouths. I went to many local clubs in Cornwall with them and was always surprised at the level of violence when used they would resort  to.

It was the first time I learnt why many of them had one hand on the wall facing them when having a piss as a safety measure. It's like you get this high level up market society down there and then a more angry lower market priced out  born and bred type, and yes I dare say you get plenty of average types who just lead normal lives.

One lad I knew (now 60) has the greatest  sense of humour and will always ring me up after a year or two "Hello Handsome" who can take a joke(I once set light to his armpit) but God the things I have seen that Man do.

[honkydonkey]

44 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

(I once set light to his armpit) but God the things I have seen that Man do.

A rather fast hokey cokey must be up there.