Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I wish that was a credible forecast. Somewhat like @Democorruptcy I think +0.25% is a much more likely tail risk than +0.75%, although I am still expecting 0.5%. 

Petrol prices down...-0.5% and £2tn QE.

[haroldshand]

6 hours ago, Curious Pattern said:

Round my way, a desirable village in the South East, the market seems very slow compared to the feeding frenzy 1-2 years ago. Houses are being brought on at record high prices but very few buyers are biting. An ex-rental house on my road went up a few weeks ago and has only had a handful of viewings. It feels like estate agents have finally pushed beyond what most people are willing/able to pay for a nice area.

They will just up the already successful policy  of pumping even more immigration where 90% plus of them  will be worse than semi or even non skilled and placed in housing once built for one small family now filled with two or three or massive Muzzer broods of several kids which will be paid for by the taxpayer many of which will be the working  under 40's unable to live in the very same  houses their parents once lived in.

Even with a political now  will I think this is now unfixable 

[AWW]

4 of us now in my block of 18 flats in north London have now been served notice so that 4 different landlords can sell up, in the last two months.

That small exit has a very long queue forming.

[Herby]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

4 of us now in my block of 18 flats in north London have now been served notice so that 4 different landlords can sell up, in the last two months.

That small exit has a very long queue forming.

Hope you can find a suitable alternative, it's getting scarcer and more costly. 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, AWW said:

4 of us now in my block of 18 flats in north London have now been served notice so that 4 different landlords can sell up, in the last two months.

That small exit has a very long queue forming.

 

8 hours ago, Herby said:

Hope you can find a suitable alternative, it's getting scarcer and more costly. 

Its a polite request to leave.

Stay until you get a court served eviction notice,.

 

[Boon]

10 hours ago, AWW said:

4 of us now in my block of 18 flats in north London have now been served notice so that 4 different landlords can sell up, in the last two months.

That small exit has a very long queue forming.

I have seen quite a few blocks like this in London where multiple units go on in short time. Either there will be some kind of stalemate where everyone is looking at each others listings and the price gets chipped away slowly, or maybe someone is a forced seller and just undercuts the rest. Either way it takes a lot to get a sale nowadays especially of the new builds.

It may be worth keeping an eye in the surrounding area as these will be comparables as well. If overpriced it may take some time. 

Amusingly you have this on MSE:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6376776/very-concerned-we-are-significantly-overpaying-for-flat/

This sounds like in London/SE and none of the posters have the morals to actually tell them straight, and even that ground floors often are at a discount (security, noise). 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Boon

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

This sounds like in London/SE and none of the posters have the morals to actually tell them straight, and even that ground floors often are at a discount (security, noise). 

 

Yes, I lived in flats for fifteen years and wouldn't ever have considered renting (or buying) a ground floor flat.

I assumed that the people who do, given that they usually rent for the same price, were either desperate for somewhere, didn't think about the implications, or couldn't manage stairs.

Wrt to the last I find in the US that the most popular rooms in hotels are the ground floor, it's then easy to wheel your case in from your car, whereas I will have the top floor if it's available.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, AWW said:

4 of us now in my block of 18 flats in north London have now been served notice so that 4 different landlords can sell up, in the last two months.

That small exit has a very long queue forming.

As per @spygirl said, don't feel rushed to move.only circa £250 of eviction costs are recoverable I will link later when on a computer.

 

Most LLs would rather you surrendered the property,eviction can cost circa £5k . And it can take a while, courts still back logged. 

 

The LLs sound have factored this all into their maths.

 

Agreed on the long queue.wow to your stats. Impressive efforts by those 4 LLs.

[Wight Flight]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

As per @spygirl said, don't feel rushed to move.only circa £250 of eviction costs are recoverable I will link later when on a computer.

 

Most LLs would rather you surrendered the property,eviction can cost circa £5k . And it can take a while, courts still back logged. 

 

The LLs sound have factored this all into their maths.

 

Agreed on the long queue.wow to your stats. Impressive efforts by those 4 LLs.

May work if you are going to buy.

Not sure it is excellent advice if you still want to rent.

[Boon]

Yeah, it could be a possibility that a landlord offers you a bung to leave. 
Even if it drags on, if they need to sell why would they give you a bad reference? That would be counter-productive from their point of  view.

Think anyone buying the average generic London flat today the sums are quite staggering:

Asking Price: £400k
Deposit: £200k
BTL Mortgage = £1,002/month (3.5% introductory rate, 25yrs)

On the other hand:
Rent: £1400
Agency fee: £140
Service charge: £250

Anyone doing this is basically gambling losses in the hope that inflation returns in a big way in future, as it ignores other charges and opportunity cost on the deposit.

Quelle surprise, flats that fit this profile in London are not shifting quickly. There may be the odd gambler, dumb foreign BTLer or someone who the figures don't matter to (ie BOMAD, equity from previous purchase). 

As been said before rents are related to disposable income, so increasing rent is difficult.

This being said I do believe the ease of BTL has led to a load of unsophisticated investors with lots of cash. Nobody wants a blue-chip share at 5% dividend because it isn't guaranteed and prices can go down or up, but somehow these things don't apply to property even though it clearly does.

So if prices were suddenly £300k for the same flat the same mortgage becomes £751 and it becomes profitable again, so perhaps even before the flat reaches this price level it will be bought.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Boon said:

Yeah, it could be a possibility that a landlord offers you a bung to leave. 
Even if it drags on, if they need to sell why would they give you a bad reference? That would be counter-productive from their point of  view.

I used to watch the "nightmare tennants" type programs, and a lot of that goes on.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

May work if you are going to buy.

Not sure it is excellent advice if you still want to rent.

Why would a landlord who wants you out give you a bad reference that prevents you leaving?

We're not going to be out by the date on the S21 notice in any case, as there's sod all on the rental market. Up to LL if he wants to go to court.

[Wight Flight]

Just now, AWW said:

Why would a landlord who wants you out give you a bad reference that prevents you leaving?

We're not going to be out by the date on the S21 notice in any case, as there's sod all on the rental market. Up to LL if he wants to go to court.

My last one did. Nearly scuppered my move with just days to go.

[AWW]

Just now, Wight Flight said:

My last one did. Nearly scuppered my move with just days to go.

Amazing. Some of them are even more stupid than I thought.

[Wight Flight]

6 minutes ago, AWW said:

Amazing. Some of them are even more stupid than I thought.

Never underestimate the stupidity of a property investor.

[spygirl]

28 minutes ago, AWW said:

Why would a landlord who wants you out give you a bad reference that prevents you leaving?

We're not going to be out by the date on the S21 notice in any case, as there's sod all on the rental market. Up to LL if he wants to go to court.

Take the S21 to CAB.

See if its filled in correctly. Normally they are not.

 

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

May work if you are going to buy.

Not sure it is excellent advice if you still want to rent.

Wasnt claiming it to be excellent advice just a reflection of reality.wasnt suggesting you sound stop paying the rent. That's a very different issue.

Excellent advice from shelter here particularly the point differentiating a CCJ from a possession order ie it didn't appear on your credit history(I'd personally take legal advice on that point and generally before going down this route)

https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/eviction/what_is_a_possession_order_for_eviction

All most LAs are interested in is whether you have the money. AWW from his posting history has the money. also has kids iirc.

 

Been with our current LA at two properties,been renting for donkeys years.never ever been asked for a landlord reference in that time.i have heard a couple of acquaintamce sources that say they have but they were both in the SW which may be a very different place.

Work references. Yes.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

My last one did. Nearly scuppered my move with just days to go.

Is the LL reference thing just for areas in the south. Never come across it here?

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

All most LAs are interested in is whether you have the money. AWW from his posting history has the money. also has kids iirc.

LA's may be entirely different. I wouldn't know about them - more chance of finding a unicorn.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Is the LL reference thing just for areas in the south. Never come across it here?

I have never seen an advert that didn't ask for a LL reference. And they do follow them up.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

Why would a landlord who wants you out give you a bad reference that prevents you leaving?

We're not going to be out by the date on the S21 notice in any case, as there's sod all on the rental market. Up to LL if he wants to go to court.

https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/eviction/section_21_eviction/how_long_a_section_21_eviction_takes

Suspect the backlog in londinium is still quite long

 

Have you looked further afield in one hour train commute territory.leicestershire and Northants have some very reasonable places

9 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I have never seen an advert that didn't ask for a LL reference. And they do follow them up.

Are thesedirect LL adverts or via LAs?

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/eviction/section_21_eviction/how_long_a_section_21_eviction_takes

Suspect the backlog in londinium is still quite long

 

Have you looked further afield in one hour train commute territory.leicestershire and Northants have some very reasonable places

Are thesedirect LL adverts or via LAs?

Ah. I thought LA meant local authority.

Letting agents won't touch you without a reference (going back several years)

You also need no kids, no pets, and at least six months rent up front to get to the top of the list.

 

[Herby]

On 02/08/2022 at 17:09, Herby said:

Anecdotal.  

Someone I know has just put their house up for sale.

4-bedroom, detached, small town.

About 106 square metres.

Asking for offers over £650,000.

Apparently an open day was booked this week and only 5 people were interested. 

They were annoyed with the estate agent..

The numbers of viewings I've experienced in a similar bracket towards the beginning of the year were 25 to 50 viewings per property.

Lots more coming on the market around my way, including definite ex-rentals. 2.5-bedroom, 70-80sqm terraces are asking £520k plus. Three bedroom semis around 90 square metres asking £575,000.

Quite a few have stalled now. 

 

Update.. 

An elderly lady, currently living with her children, has made a cash offer above asking price. The vendor is waiting to see if anyone else will outbid that, but if other parties need a mortgage or in a chain, I personally think it would be madness!

A three-bedroom 100 sq m Victorian terrace came on today locally for offers over £600k. I'm going to have to wait for at least 6-months I think!

Note. This is a town which is an hour 30+ door-to-door each way into city of London, (closer to 1-hour 50 into to canary wharf area), not London suburbs. 

Local average salary apparently £28,500. 

[Herby]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

Why would a landlord who wants you out give you a bad reference that prevents you leaving?

We're not going to be out by the date on the S21 notice in any case, as there's sod all on the rental market. Up to LL if he wants to go to court.

Don't know how long you've been there, but the last two rentals I've had in three years, the letting agents required to see proof of income, in my case it was 2.5 times annual. 

https://www.swiftpropertyservices.co.uk/blog/affordability-criteria-when-renting-a-property.html

[Don Coglione]

32 minutes ago, Herby said:

Update.. 

An elderly lady, currently living with her children, has made a cash offer above asking price. The vendor is waiting to see if anyone else will outbid that, but if other parties need a mortgage or in a chain, I personally think it would be madness!

A three-bedroom 100 sq m Victorian terrace came on today locally for offers over £600k. I'm going to have to wait for at least 6-months I think!

Note. This is a town which is an hour 30+ door-to-door each way into city of London, (closer to 1-hour 50 into to canary wharf area), not London suburbs. 

Local average salary apparently £28,500. 

Winchester?

If , move.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Don Coglione