Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[GTM]

11 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

@Bus Stop Boxer holy fuck, I've just redone my first 3 digit postcode search and its now 237 and looks like panic selling (or trying to) has started in earnest.

That's a 10% increase in 4 days.

New listings are all mundane stuff.

Everything I look at in my searches I think, "that needs to half in price to be good value".

I see I'm not the only one. 😂 

[Herby]

OK, Which one of you is "SwanBuster"??

(Reference to the Black Swan?)

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4605305-to-think-the-amount-available-to-borrow-for-a-home-is-going-to-be-slashed

The general air of the thread (Which is fairly accepting of a stall / drop in HP's) made me think it was someone from here or ToS. 

What nailed it for me was "But the very, very best homes are a vanishingly small amount of the overall housing stock. An identikit Taylor Wimpey executive shitbox is not."

[Boon]

Ha yeah blatantly someone from here.

Thing is there is the general air of acceptance because it is really difficult to refute.

But if you start a 'should I buy now or wait thread' people will revert back to type and you'll get the you can't lose on houses, guessing interest rates is not worth it.

Basically a lot of people outwardly say house prices should fall but secretly want the policies which help house prices to continue even though they know the result of that will be even more inequality

That's why the country is where it is, too many cunts only out for themselves.

 

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

That's why the country is where it is, too many cunts only out for themselves.

Agreed. But it is counter-intuitive. It only helps those with multiple houses. It fucks up everyone else. Why do so few people understand this?

[Rare Bear]

I've got a few alerts set up but I seem to be getting about 10 houses on the Isle of Wight for every one elsewhere. Is there a reason?

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, Herby said:

OK, Which one of you is "SwanBuster"??

(Reference to the Black Swan?)

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4605305-to-think-the-amount-available-to-borrow-for-a-home-is-going-to-be-slashed

The general air of the thread (Which is fairly accepting of a stall / drop in HP's) made me think it was someone from here or ToS. 

What nailed it for me was "But the very, very best homes are a vanishingly small amount of the overall housing stock. An identikit Taylor Wimpey executive shitbox is not."

I love these types of posts -

trolleybusses · Yesterday 20:43

@SwanBuster I am not sure that it's about nice properties as much as the fact that salaries in the city are on the up and that's a lot of people in London. Two bed flats a la 60m2 in naice areas are currently being advertised for 700-750k. Now I'd like to think they will fall - however, my house in a less naice area where non-city professionals live costs 750k and I reckon the house might fall more than the two bed flats. The squeeze on anyone who only got 3% payrise is huge this and next year. Inflation is high, interest rates going up. My friends in IT, pharma, consultancies all got quite large bonuses and pay increases this year.

The big problem is affordability outside London will drop. People on MN who talk about 500 pound mortgages will disappear

Lake Wobegone here we come.

Yes, there are some v high paying jobs in London.

However when you look at tgphr median income then London just does not justify the house prices.

Sure, Mayfair will always be ££££££££

But the shitholes n dives n blah bland that make up 95% of London housing stock, good luck.

And looking at voud on London offices- companies are legging it.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

I think people in high rise HTB tinderboxes look enviously at Taylor Wimpey shitholes.

[Calcutta]

On 05/08/2022 at 17:26, Herby said:

About 20 miles away. 

Winchester's got a bit more going for it, been there a couple of times. 

This place is much smaller

Seen as we're playing throw the dart at the map. Romsey? 

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, Rare Bear said:

I've got a few alerts set up but I seem to be getting about 10 houses on the Isle of Wight for every one elsewhere. Is there a reason?

How big are your other search areas?

[No One]

[No One]

[Rare Bear]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

How big are your other search areas?

Braintree, Wyndham, bury st Edmunds and loddon. 

2 to 4 bedrooms, detached, garden and parking. 

[Wight Flight]

26 minutes ago, Rare Bear said:

Braintree, Wyndham, bury st Edmunds and loddon. 

2 to 4 bedrooms, detached, garden and parking. 

Interesting. We have three times the population of Braintree, but are you saying we have 10x the number of houses for sale?

[Rare Bear]

Just now, Wight Flight said:

Interesting. We have three times the population of Braintree, but are you saying we have 10x the number of houses for sale?

Looks that way for the past few weeks.

[Bobthebuilder]

15 hours ago, No One said:

I am starting to see a lot of "unexpectedly re available", in my search area.

[Herby]

16 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Seen as we're playing throw the dart at the map. Romsey? 

Ha, I'm not going to be more specific as I don't want to be "docced"

[No One]

[sancho panza]

Just found out the price our LL paid for our pad April 21 ,means were renting on an eye watering 2% gross-yayaya gross- yield.

So after tax,maintenance,and mortgage payments,he's probably not covering the interest payment..

Edited August 7, 2022 by sancho panza

[haroldshand]

On 06/08/2022 at 20:44, Wight Flight said:

Interesting. We have three times the population of Braintree, but are you saying we have 10x the number of houses for sale?

Many places in Suffolk  where prices are going to hold up for a while yet, was thinking of Long Melford or Lavenham at one point, not a sniff of falls there and will remain that way for a while yet IMO

In fact cannot see any good areas falling at the moment and especially seeing as the BOE will do zero to help it on it's way(still very  low interest rates for example), if there are going to be falls then it will be down to the worsening cost of living crisis which the BOE cannot manipulate like interest rates.

[Boon]

 

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Just found out the price our LL paid for our pad April 21 ,means were renting on an eye watering 2% gross-yayaya gross- yield.

So after tax,maintenance,and mortgage payments,he's probably not covering the interest payment..

This might be a negative thing, no? Especially if lack of other similar properties at similar yield to rent.

Either a rent rise or the flat being sold off. 

Capital gainz seem to be the main motivation for landlords which is why they tolerate break-even or worse yields. But with the prospect of these (or even losses) mounting it doesn't seem so good.

I don't see much difference between unsophisticated landlords and unsophisticated retail share punters, they will tend to sell when the market is down.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

 

This might be a negative thing, no? Especially if lack of other similar properties at similar yield to rent.

Either a rent rise or the flat being sold off. 

Capital gainz seem to be the main motivation for landlords which is why they tolerate break-even or worse yields. But with the prospect of these (or even losses) mounting it doesn't seem so good.

I don't see much difference between unsophisticated landlords and unsophisticated retail share punters, they will tend to sell when the market is down.

It's a property deal gone worng.LL bought the hosue april 21,bought the two fields either side,ag land,no planning,liekly ten years away from first shovel ,but now post ukraine these places away from towns/cities where work is are less desirable,as is the council tax of £3300,plus heating bill.Inital asking was 2.5% gross yield but negotiated down to where I felt the market was.

We're on a fix leccy gas wise until Oct 23 so Im not fussed,signed a two year deal to Dec 23.

LL ahs likely had to put 20% down as purcahsed on a commercial loan.

The bulk of the problems are with the building scoiety doing the lending.Quite what they're going to do with these fuields and this hosue in the macro environement thats looming is what intrigues me.Dont want to out too much detail ehre but they're claiming tier one equity circa 15%.It's hard not to laugh at that if you've got a vague udnerstanding of FRB and how it wokrs.

Edit to add:our LL this is awhat would be termed a sophisticated commercial investor.Dread to think of some of the leverage in the retail section of BTL-there will also be some shrewd punters as well .

Edited August 8, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

This could be the winning ticket

SW8 644 flats for sale,currently selling circa 20 per month =32 months inventory.

SW8 has it's own problems but these figures demonstratethat the market is not liquid.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^2521&insId=1&primaryDisplayPropertyType=flats&numberOfPropertiesPerPage=24&areaSizeUnit=sqft&googleAnalyticsChannel=buying

[Boon]

I thought removing shared ownership would take away a lot of duplicates but it only removes 3 properties, maybe it is uneconomic at higher prices.

Another thing that can be inferred from those stats is that those posh £1m+ flats in Nine Elms are not shifting at all. Despite 250 of the 644 being £1m or more in price. Looking at houseprices.io there has only been one £1m+ sale of a flat in 2022 and that was in February.

Maybe there is a way those flats can be sold without the final price hitting the Land Registry? Otherwise these must be a point where those things present a headache for the developers.

[Calcutta]

How long does RM take to update when house have been sold? 

I haven't been watching closely for very long. My area has 8+ sold most months up until Feb, since then until May there's a maximum of 4 a month. 

Last updated 21st July. Nothing since May but perhaps I'm just clutching at straws. 

[HousePriceMania]

 

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

 

Supply up, interest rates up, prices down.

I dont see much coming onto the market which implies nothing is selling