Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[haroldshand]

I have just left a customer 30 minutes ago who is a BTL with dozens of properties who told me she is now slowly off loading but it seems she is doing it a little slower than she originally told me a few months ago.

One of the properties I know well is in the bracket of " this is where you could end up if life is not going well" type of place. She has just informed me it's up for £190,000..

FFS

Would love to put up a few photos of house and area, this is approaching a quarter of a million pounds in what to me is a pond full of lifes dregs. You really you have a handle on how mad this all is and then you see this

[sancho panza]

On 27/07/2022 at 11:46, Boon said:

@sancho panzaWhat's up with flats in Leicester city centre?
Seems to be a lot in the £100-150k range but rents are still £1k+ a month.

I don't know if that is the way we are heading; in theory much higher interest rates will reduce property prices but do fuck all for rents.

There is a big Chinese student population which is happy to pay top yuan,but generally in my experience,they're sat there empty for a while,because some BTLer was told to aim for an 8% gross yield and won't meet the market.

The bids on 3 bed semi's below £1000 in the suburbs is liquid as anything.Glad I'm not in it.

Rental sector is variant depending on where you are in it.Nice 1 bed flats in half decent area are pretty liquid too..

In terms of sales,I've bored with these stats before but we have literally 2 to 3 months inventory in 3 bed semis that's it.In flats we have twenty months or so.

[sancho panza]

On 27/07/2022 at 12:21, haroldshand said:

Serious question..

I have noticed many people on this thread wanting a property crash and I am not saying there is anything wrong or not wrong in that, many also seem to be in their 40's or even older. But how exactly do you think you are going to profit from that outcome when up until now you have not managed to thrive in the property market.

From what I have noticed in my decades alive and in recession and non recession times the same type of people seem to survive and do well whether they are Alpha male/female or handed it on the plate and those at the bottom of the food chain became even more bottom of the food chain during a recession/housing crash.

Like I said serious question and not a dig towards anyone, just curious

We're invested in oil,gold,tobacco and telecoms,coal.From a finacial point of view,the price of hosuing doesn't really matter to me apart from what it might do to aggregate demand.

AS I've said,we retn on a 2.5% gross yield and have stocks yielding 6%.I'm happy ro arbitrage oil and hosuing from here.

I genuienly think people need to focus on investments that will make money going forward.If you want a home(for me that's a ten year view) then buy one.If you're buying a hosue as an investment,you may be dissapointed depending on how you're financing it.

Problem is with trading hosues is that unless you're in a liquid market with small chains,the pricing transparency is poor.Could be months after a big drop that you find out it's occurred.Same it could be months after a big run up you find it's occurred

 

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, AWW said:

It's not about making a profit, it's about not losing one's shirt in what's coming and has already started around me.

I've never felt the need to own a house as I've always been a contractor and liked the flexibility and ease of renting. However, now that we have a couple of kids and have just been served an eviction notice from our rental, and are staring at a barren rental market, I am  looking at owning. However, I've also never seen a more risky time to buy in my lifetime. IRs have already effectively doubled, landlords are rushing for the exits, but prices have only just started to react.

I can easily see prices in my bit of north London coming off 30% - which would be more than my deposit and a life changing mistake when we're talking about £1.25m for a decent family home.

It's not a "bottom of the food chain" thing. Without wishing to post numbers, I'm an additional rate taxpayer, which is not uncommon around here and I won't be the only mug on this site funding five fat fucks to sit on their arse.

S21 is notice to leave.You cna go through the eviction process and drag things out for 4-6 months or ,maybe more if you need to find another place nad have nowehre to go.

Worth being aware that LL's can only recoup something like £250 in eviction costs iirc.Formal evictions are a costly business.They prefer you to go of your own accord and if you're paying the rent with young kids,the LA's willl try and help you find somewhere if they have any sense.

 

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, AWW said:

Thanks but I'm just going to stay put until something comes up. I can't see how the LL forces us out for at least another 6 months, if he's lucky. And he'll have to give a good reference, because he wants us out so that he can sell.

you could offer to do viewings for a discount on rent

[spygirl]

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/lifestyle/homes-and-gardens/call-for-radical-action-as-the-number-of-people-owning-multiple-homes-doubles-while-the-number-of-young-homeowners-halves-3785129

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) is calling for fundamental reforms to the private rented sector (PRS) to open the market to those locked out of home ownership and social housing.

A paper by senior policy adviser Darren Baxter reveals that in the last 20 years the proportion of adults owning multiple homes doubled while the percentage of 16-34 year-olds buying a home almost halved.

No action required.

Remove SBRR from FHLs and AirBNB.

Carry on increasing IRs.

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

On 27/07/2022 at 16:19, Frank Hovis said:

 

Guinness and a gin and tonic - ladyboys!

"A wank i think"... oh hang on different series.

[spygirl]

On 11/12/2020 at 21:03, spygirl said:

House prices in NE have gone nowhere in 15 years.

Theres two types of market crashes - prices n number of  transactions

UK has the latter.

 

On 13/12/2020 at 11:21, spygirl said:

Nope.

Theres multiple things at play.

The main one being mid aged boomer are now in 60s.

I'm not sure what the exact numbers but something like only 30% of houses have mortgages attached to them.

About 20%of household  are oaps. Another 20-30% are social housing/HB.

The number of people in prime house buying age (25-55) who are looking to buy a house AND have the earnings is tiny. In my local area I'd reckon you are talking 10s of FTBs. The other sales are just home buyers trading away their equity. Or worse, leveraging up to speculate on BTL.

Forget saying - well my house in gold or bitcoins or magic beans ....

I can point to a large number of Northern towns where the nominal price has not shifted for 15 years.

To put in context, these places did not recover their nominal late 80s prices til late 90s.

Basically, they double due to cretin Brown, then sat there, not selling for almost 20 years.

Transaction are at multi decades low.

Considering mortgages did not become mass market tilted 70s, sales are occuring at lowest numbers ever.

The only factor propping up stagnation prices are low rates. Those wont last. Interest cycle is built into market economies.

The Western business cycle has been fucked due to bent China entering World trade in late 90s, exporting dusinflation, which fucked over dafty economist's models.

China has now aged, constrained US eventually woke up, and will be exporting  inflation  now.

 

London/SE where the build of the 2002+ HPI occurred is fucked. Tge evonomy/jibs look like Middlesbrough in late 70s - mass loss of well paying jobs.

 

 

 

 

 

Back to the start.....

Saw this on TOS.

Back in the 90s it was accepted that you need 80k-100k mortgages/m just to clear the market - death debt divorce.

That fall after 2007 is insane - 130k to sub 30k.

Then mortgage approvals slowly recovered then got stuck at 65k.

Anyone who thinks the UK market has had a broad base recovery since since 2008 is on crack.

A lot of those mortgages will be htb, do fuckall equity.

For comparison, in the mid 90s when you - couldn't give houses away -

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Pishy Rishi Will save everyone the banks

Meanwhile in Oz...

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/sydney-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-pace-in-over-32-years-while-melbourne-prices-fall-at-second-fastest

 

Sydney house prices fall at fastest pace in over 32 years while Melbourne prices fall at second fastest...

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Pishy Rishi Will save everyone the banks

Meanwhile in Oz...

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/sydney-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-pace-in-over-32-years-while-melbourne-prices-fall-at-second-fastest

 

Sydney house prices fall at fastest pace in over 32 years while Melbourne prices fall at second fastest...

 

[Democorruptcy]

Presumably today is when the new rule about not having any borrowing rules, kicks in? In my area very little's been selling recently, have some been waiting for easier lending and this is going to result in more sales and supply going down again?

Quote

 

The Bank of England’s bizarre mortgage decision

With interest rates rising, now is not the time to scrap the test of affordability for home loans

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Ff6c8d623-f800-4d85-95c8-eb37d9a3502f

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Wow...

 

 

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Presumably today is when the new rule about not having any borrowing rules, kicks in? In my area very little's been selling recently, have some been waiting for easier lending and this is going to result in more sales and supply going down again?

 

 

At these fucking prices, you think?

[Boglet]

On 31/07/2022 at 10:58, HousePriceMania said:

Pishy Rishi Will save everyone the banks

Meanwhile in Oz...

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/sydney-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-pace-in-over-32-years-while-melbourne-prices-fall-at-second-fastest

 

Sydney house prices fall at fastest pace in over 32 years while Melbourne prices fall at second fastest...

Australia faces its demons?

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Boglet said:

Australia faces its demons?

Canada certainly is

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Canada certainly is

 

A mere -22.52% average across all those areas................in 5 months.

[Axeman123]

The higher the high, the worse the comedown.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

I smell an uptick in the likelihood of carnage desperation and pain.

Reality is shawshanking under the door in Nth Dorset listings today.

More reductions than Gordon Ramsay.

A tunnel with out no end......

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I smell an uptick in the likelihood of carnage desperation and pain.

Reality is shawshanking under the door in Nth Dorset listings today.

More reductions than Gordon Ramsay.

A tunnel with out no end......

The Race for Space Bankruptcy 

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I smell an uptick in the likelihood of carnage desperation and pain.

Reality is shawshanking under the door in Nth Dorset listings today.

More reductions than Gordon Ramsay.

A tunnel with out no end......

You've just prompted me to do another first 3 digit postcode search round me, not done one for 2 weeks, it was 195 IIRC.

Fuck, its now 214.

Listings up 7.5% from 4 weeks ago.

Simmering nicely.

[Long time lurking]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wow...

 

 

At these fucking prices, you think?

 

[Dicky Back]

5 hours ago, Boglet said:

Australia faces its demons?

Christ, that's a blast from the past! That Aussie wanker was right in the end though! Hopefully he's still balls deep with no hope of getting out now.

[HousePriceMania]

 

Today's offering

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-02/australias-housing-market-property-price/101289042

Australian house prices set to drop further as interest rates surge. Here's a round up of what's happening with property prices across Australia

 

[HousePriceMania]

UK current asking prices down -1.12% this month with listings in the SQ/Wales surging.

 

Let's hope this continues.

Half the regions went MoM -ve with all regions showing a rise in listings

As usual, everything is driven by London.

Edited August 2, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[Chewing Grass]

21 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

UK current asking prices down -1.12% this month with listings in the SQ/Wales surging.

 

Let's hope this continues.

Half the regions went MoM -ve with all regions showing a rise in listings

As usual, everything is driven by London.

Listings up 7.5% MoM round me.

[jamanda]

In my area listings are up and taking much longer to sell. Prices don't seem to have gone down though.