Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

interesting wolfstreet piece- and something which is starting to show its head here in the UK-
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/10/this-reddit-lament-sums-up-wonderfully-what-lots-of-home-buyers-will-grapple-with-as-housing-market-normalizes-and-work-from-home-fizzles/

As wages are being cut for WFH-
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/aug/12/google-staff-could-see-pay-cut-if-they-opt-to-work-from-home

People being forced back to offices
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bosses-wrong-force-workers-go-24749359

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/09/civil-servants-in-london-could-see-pay-cut-if-they-resist-office-return

Plus furloughs ending.

Anecdotally i know two people who’ve moved to the midlands thinking they’ll save money on mortgage/rent, only to now be told they’ve got to go into the London office twice a week- costing them an extra £700/800 a month to do so- wiping out any savings they’ve made from the move north.

Interesting links there dnb.

Have to say the whole work from home thing has created a huge problem potentially in the banking sector given the CRE laons that will be taking losses.UK banks plc are not in any fit state to be taking big hits on any loans of any sort,given they're more leveraged than in 2006.

I mentioned somewhere else,Mrs P had a sudden desire to buy the other day.We ran the figures and it really is a life of penury and 20 years of slog using a mortgage with little room for error.

The Wolf St piece highlights the fact that many of the more marginal holders of property ie higher LTV/recent buyers etc have never known a down market or -heaven forbid-interest rate rises.

Mrs P knows I';ve no desrie to sacrifice our oilies/godlies to buy a house,so we ran the figures with a 75% LTV and it was really eye watering the mortgage repayments on a 4 bed in Leicester especially when I included the maintenance and the loss of income from our stocks.

Do you know any postcodes in London that might interest from the perspective outlined above,ie runnign some months inventory stats to see where the bubble is popping.

Also,anecdotally,is there still a flow of people leaving London or has it stopped>?

 

[sleepwello'nights]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Mrs P knows I';ve no desrie to sacrifice our oilies/godlies to buy a house,so we ran the figures with a 75% LTV and it was really eye watering the mortgage repayments on a 4 bed in Leicester especially when I included the maintenance and the loss of income from our stocks.

 

 

I always thought that most continental families tended to rent during their working lives and only purchased quite late in life.

I never looked into it to any extent, probably just ancedotals from conversations with friends and family. 

It would have worked reasonably well in the UK after the GFC in 2008. Many posters on here mention that the cost of renting is less than ownership with a mortgage. Provided your reinvested savings keep pace with house price increases, and in the past they used to. The big downside though is security of tenure. 

[dnb24]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting links there dnb.

Have to say the whole work from home thing has created a huge problem potentially in the banking sector given the CRE laons that will be taking losses.UK banks plc are not in any fit state to be taking big hits on any loans of any sort,given they're more leveraged than in 2006.

I mentioned somewhere else,Mrs P had a sudden desire to buy the other day.We ran the figures and it really is a life of penury and 20 years of slog using a mortgage with little room for error.

The Wolf St piece highlights the fact that many of the more marginal holders of property ie higher LTV/recent buyers etc have never known a down market or -heaven forbid-interest rate rises.

Mrs P knows I';ve no desrie to sacrifice our oilies/godlies to buy a house,so we ran the figures with a 75% LTV and it was really eye watering the mortgage repayments on a 4 bed in Leicester especially when I included the maintenance and the loss of income from our stocks.

Do you know any postcodes in London that might interest from the perspective outlined above,ie runnign some months inventory stats to see where the bubble is popping.

Also,anecdotally,is there still a flow of people leaving London or has it stopped>?

 

I think it’s stopped now, it’s was an onslaught last year but I’ve not heard of anyone leaving in my circles over the last 2 months. 
The areas I was aware of that had high numbers leave were from Highbury up to Crouch End, and then over to Hackney and up to Walthamstow.

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, dnb24 said:

interesting wolfstreet piece- and something which is starting to show its head here in the UK-
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/10/this-reddit-lament-sums-up-wonderfully-what-lots-of-home-buyers-will-grapple-with-as-housing-market-normalizes-and-work-from-home-fizzles/

As wages are being cut for WFH-
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/aug/12/google-staff-could-see-pay-cut-if-they-opt-to-work-from-home

People being forced back to offices
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bosses-wrong-force-workers-go-24749359

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/09/civil-servants-in-london-could-see-pay-cut-if-they-resist-office-return

Plus furloughs ending.

Anecdotally i know two people who’ve moved to the midlands thinking they’ll save money on mortgage/rent, only to now be told they’ve got to go into the London office twice a week- costing them an extra £700/800 a month to do so- wiping out any savings they’ve made from the move north.

Its now been shown many jobs can be done at a distance; so its when WFH turns into here is your P45 we're moving the job to East Europe or Indian that these people will have the bigger problem.

[Phil]

I wish I could wfh. Construction. Changes to ir35 in April has  me on £250 a shift ( refurb - Jon Lewis to Home Bargains and Aldi, building split) but working through an agency. 250 x 5 = 1250 top line.

Take home - employers, mine NI and take and CITB levy 5 = 803.

447... piss take. Materials going sky high . End game as I see it, client says fuck it, I can't afford the build. Should be interesting before Xmas. 

[Hardhat]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wish I could wfh. Construction. Changes to ir35 in April has  me on £250 a shift ( refurb - Jon Lewis to Home Bargains and Aldi, building split) but working through an agency. 250 x 5 = 1250 top line.

Take home - employers, mine NI and take and CITB levy 5 = 803.

447... piss take. Materials going sky high . End game as I see it, client says fuck it, I can't afford the build. Should be interesting before Xmas. 

Every building site I'm on atm / contractors say they can't get labour. All the Poles have gone home and everyone else is pinged or on holiday. Reckon Labour shortages have added at least 2 weeks to two of my project programmes. 

It won't be long until wages are forced to rise. There just aren't enough skilled trades available.

Could you do work for other firms to get round IR35?

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Every building site I'm on atm / contractors say they can't get labour. All the Poles have gone home and everyone else is pinged or on holiday. Reckon Labour shortages have added at least 2 weeks to two of my project programmes. 

It won't be long until wages are forced to rise. There just aren't enough skilled trades available.

Could you do work for other firms to get round IR35?

I live literally 4mins form the job, but your right. It should be 1k pick up but the firm like many, are fearful of being caught out( this is what I'm told, I call BS personally). The crazy thing is if I earn £12 a day less, on cis, I would be around a ton up take home. I am currently reviewing. Like I say, you want loyalty, get a dog. I don't want loyalty, I want the money before it goes tits up.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Also,anecdotally,is there still a flow of people leaving London or has it stopped>?

A friend of mine is moving to East Yorkshire this month. He is from that area but his immediate family are Londoners. Big move for them and permanent. Needs to be because they don't intend on working again.

The covid rush is over but people are continuing to re-evaluate their lives. Going back to the office might push some more who have been enjoying a different lifestyle towards the exit doors.

@dnb24 I struggle to understand the thought processes of people who moved hundreds of miles from their workplace on the basis of a temporary ability to work from home. Did they convince themselves it was permanent? 7-800 per month is £15k pa before tax. Plus stress. Might as well take a lower paying local job.

I can permanently work from home. Or at least I can whilst I retain my current job. If I moved I could potentially be mortgage free and have a larger house. If I went up to Durham I could do that and buy lots more reflation shares. It is tempting.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Bobthebuilder]

59 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The covid rush is over but people are continuing to re-evaluate their lives. Going back to the office might push some more who have been enjoying a different lifestyle towards the exit doors.

I was down in Dorset a few weeks ago. My brother-in-law said, "let's jump in the van, I know a few quiet riverside spots for a walk". Everywhere we went it was rammed, could not park, so we gave up.

On the way home I said, "looks like half of London is down here now, to ruin it for you", he has been there all his life, he didn't reply.

Do not think many long term locals are happy about it at all.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was down in Dorset a few weeks ago. My brother-in-law said, "let's jump in the van, I know a few quiet riverside spots for a walk". Everywhere we went it was rammed, could not park, so we gave up.

On the way home I said, "looks like half of London is down here now, to ruin it for you", he has been there all his life, he didn't reply.

Do not think many long term locals are happy about it at all.

At the Asda before covid1984. Checkout bird ( late 40s ) chatting to customer before me in southern accent. My turn. " here you from love? ) " down London"

Me. " what brings you to ******"

" Sold my gaff, and mi rental didn't I, got a 4 be Victorian in the town, really cheap"

At that stage I thought what a mouthy cunt, I hope you get sacked the repossessed"

Paid and fuckef off.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

39 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was down in Dorset a few weeks ago. My brother-in-law said, "let's jump in the van, I know a few quiet riverside spots for a walk". Everywhere we went it was rammed, could not park, so we gave up.

On the way home I said, "looks like half of London is down here now, to ruin it for you", he has been there all his life, he didn't reply.

Do not think many long term locals are happy about it at all.

I know someone who retired to Bridport a few years ago. Lovely bloke and very funny.

One of my neighbours returned from holiday in Hastings last week. Took four and a half hours to get back to South London by train. He was not in the mood for conversation... His wife was less bothered.

England is massively overcrowded. There are places that aren't but they're the exception. The infrastructure can't cope with people holidaying at home. Millions who usually take holidays aren't this year. If foreign holidays continue to be deliberately made difficult people will get more and more angry with life in this country. Quality of life is going backwards. Has been for years but it is more noticeable now. People in rural areas don't want them clogged up by Londoners or other city dwellers. Removes the benefits of the countryside. Councils in London seem to want to build on every scrap of grass in council estates. The locals unanimously don't want this.

[dnb24]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

struggle to understand the thought processes of people who moved hundreds of miles from their workplace on the basis of a temporary ability to work from home

I’ve eventually come to the conclusion that there is no thought process. 
I think they truly believed the press and the gov line that WFH was permanent, instead of actually looking at it sensibly- they went ahead with the move- loved the fact they could buy something more considerable than what they may have been able to in London- and thought they were winning. 
 

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Councils in London seem to want to build on every scrap of grass in council estates. The locals unanimously don't want this.

This is one of my pet hates. Hackney council (amongst others) have built blocks of flats with retail spaces below them on 1960s council flat, green spaces. That was where all the kids ran about and got their exercise.

I did not take no one going on holidays abroad into consideration when I was down Dorset, good point.

[Green Devil]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

A friend of mine is moving to East Yorkshire this month. He is from that area but his immediate family are Londoners. Big move for them and permanent. Needs to be because they don't intend on working again.

The covid rush is over but people are continuing to re-evaluate their lives. Going back to the office might push some more who have been enjoying a different lifestyle towards the exit doors.

@dnb24 I struggle to understand the thought processes of people who moved hundreds of miles from their workplace on the basis of a temporary ability to work from home. Did they convince themselves it was permanent? 7-800 per month is £15k pa before tax. Plus stress. Might as well take a lower paying local job.

I can permanently work from home. Or at least I can whilst I retain my current job. If I moved I could potentially be mortgage free and have a larger house. If I went up to Durham I could do that and buy lots more reflation shares. It is tempting.

Chatting to mate of mine is going back to the office next week after 12 months WFH. 5 days on the train into london. Poor bastard, he is not a happy bunny!

[Democorruptcy]

On 10/08/2021 at 17:10, Option5 said:

I rent by choice as it gives me the freedom to move for the highest paying contracts so I can accrue cash. 

The last house I owned was sold when I realised I'd slept there two nights in a year. I happened to sell it in 2007 just before the prices crashed.

I'll buy a small place to retire to with cash when I get fed up with working.

It seems quite a common idea to buy when you stop working. I've gone the other way and sold up since I stopped working, to rent in different places for the variety.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It seems quite a common idea to buy when you stop working. I've gone the other way and sold up since I stopped working, to rent in different places for the variety.

Fare fucks. I have the same opinion . Let the state ( tax payers like me take care of me and Mrs when I’ve stopped feeding the fat cunts through taxes from me to them on bennies and  fare play, they got the bennies gig before me) . Hope this makes sense.  7no Stella . 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, dnb24 said:

I think it’s stopped now, it’s was an onslaught last year but I’ve not heard of anyone leaving in my circles over the last 2 months. 
The areas I was aware of that had high numbers leave were from Highbury up to Crouch End, and then over to Hackney and up to Walthamstow.

Just had a quick RM search,it's fascianting the divergence in inventory in those areas below. 2and a bit years of inventory in hackney and 3 months in Walthamstow.Incredible stats imho.Jsut goes to show the variance in ease of selling if you're trying to get out.

E1 Hackney-678 properties for sale,roguhly 25 transactions per month this last year so =27 months inventory

N1 Highbury 603 properties for sale,transactions 60 per motnh the last year=10 months

e17 Walthamstow 328 properties for sale,90 sales a month=3.6 months inventroy

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by sancho panza

[Wight Flight]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was down in Dorset a few weeks ago. My brother-in-law said, "let's jump in the van, I know a few quiet riverside spots for a walk". Everywhere we went it was rammed, could not park, so we gave up.

On the way home I said, "looks like half of London is down here now, to ruin it for you", he has been there all his life, he didn't reply.

Do not think many long term locals are happy about it at all.

I have a new game. Count the Range Rovers.

I might normally spot one or two a day. They really aren't suited to the Island.

I counted 42 on my journey home from work yesterday. A 6 mile journey.

London has arrived.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

E1 Hackney-678 properties for sale,roguhly 25 transactions per month this last year so =27 months inventory

E8 / N16 would be more accurate stats for hipster London

[Chewing Grass]

13 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I have a new game. Count the Range Rovers.

I might normally spot one or two a day. They really aren't suited to the Island.

I counted 42 on my journey home from work yesterday. A 6 mile journey.

London has arrived.

 

I can't believe how many New Defenders I see, saw three today with the Handbag attachments over the rear windows and another one with Faux Ladders instead of Handbag boxes.

A true vehicle for the modern arsehole.

[Wight Flight]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I can't believe how many New Defenders I see, saw three today with the Handbag attachments over the rear windows and another one with Faux Ladders instead of Handbag boxes.

A true vehicle for the modern arsehole.

I don't count defenders. Just proper Range Rovers.

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Every building site I'm on atm / contractors say they can't get labour. All the Poles have gone home and everyone else is pinged or on holiday. Reckon Labour shortages have added at least 2 weeks to two of my project programmes. 

It won't be long until wages are forced to rise. There just aren't enough skilled trades available.

Could you do work for other firms to get round IR35?

Amazing what happens after 15 years of pushing Brits out the industry, and those same men not getting their kids into the building game as its been a pile of wank for a long time now.

Its almost as if leaving Brits to do the work without making them compete with cheap EE labour, and making the working conditions shitter was the solution all along.

[Hancock]

44 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I have a new game. Count the Range Rovers.

I drive down farmers tracks for about 5 miles as a short cut to town, when a person in one of those 4x4s is heading towards my Astra, you can be certain they'll never go on the grass verge as their vehicle is designed for.

 

[sleepwello'nights]

33 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I can't believe how many New Defenders I see, saw three today with the Handbag attachments over the rear windows and another one with Faux Ladders instead of Handbag boxes.

A true vehicle for the modern arsehole.

Have you looked at the prices of them 

[sancho panza]

40 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

E8 / N16 would be more accurate stats for hipster London

By the by,if anyone knows postcodes in Lodnon that might be of interest to me,please put them up.I go to Londinium once a decade

 

N16 212/30=7 months

 

 

E8 271/25= 11 months inventory

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by sancho panza