Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Have you looked at the prices of them 

Nope, I will but somebody told me the other day that a Tesla Model X was £130K...

I was on ebay looking for 'old' stuff nearest me and a Car Dealers Warez popped up including an 11 Plate Range Rover listed at £41K...

Edit: I've just pissed myself, they do a pretend Van Version @ £37K plus VAT.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Chewing Grass

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

By the by,if anyone knows postcodes in Lodnon that might be of interest to me,please put them up.I go to Londinium once a decade

E1 is Whitechapel, which never became fashionable despite being walking distance to the City.

SE1 and SW8 could be interesting as they contain probably the largest concentrations of 'luxury' new build flats. SE1 is Southwark and includes the Tower Bridge area westwards past London Bridge, Southwark Bridge as far as Waterloo. Lots of expensive flats. Goes south to the Elephant and Castle with lots more expensive flats but less justification for the price. SW8 is Vauxhall including all the pricey new flats near the river there.

[No One]

11 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Nope, I will but somebody told me the other day that a Tesla Model X was £130K...

I was on ebay looking for 'old' stuff nearest me and a Car Dealers Warez popped up including an 11 Plate Range Rover listed at £41K...

Edit: I've just pissed myself, they do a pretend Van Version @ £37K plus VAT.

Old Skylines are going for more than that. Fucking mad

[Option5]

11 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Have you looked at the prices of them 

Have you seen the size of them.

It's a truck in a party frock.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Option5 said:

Have you seen the size of them.

It's a truck in a party frock.

They must be petrified when leaving them in a parking space in fear of getting their doors knocked.

Even my astra seems too big for most parking spaces.

[Wight Flight]

10 hours ago, Option5 said:

Have you seen the size of them.

It's a truck in a party frock.

Watched two Range Rogers trying to pass each other in old Shanklin today.

As we all know, Range Rogers have to drive on their side of the road plus about one foot of the other side. They deserve that as they are big important cars driven by big important people.

Two of them meeting on a narrow road is something they just can't compute. In the end, the one with the private plate won the face off.

 

 

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

E1 is Whitechapel, which never became fashionable despite being walking distance to the City.

SE1 and SW8 could be interesting as they contain probably the largest concentrations of 'luxury' new build flats. SE1 is Southwark and includes the Tower Bridge area westwards past London Bridge, Southwark Bridge as far as Waterloo. Lots of expensive flats. Goes south to the Elephant and Castle with lots more expensive flats but less justification for the price. SW8 is Vauxhall including all the pricey new flats near the river there.

Thanks for the info Yadda.Very interesing.Youve picked some winners right there.wouldn't fancy being a seller in any of these postcodes.

'Price fixes everything.....'...Jim the Realtor 2009

SE1 ,1059 properties for sale.About 40 transactions per month=26 months inventory.

 

E1 677 fir sale,transactiosn 28 pcm=24 months inventroy

 

SW8 782 for sale 28 transactions pcm=28 months inventory

[No One]

The pop can't be far off now.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Thanks for the info Yadda.Very interesing.Youve picked some winners right there.wouldn't fancy being a seller in any of these postcodes.

'Price fixes everything.....'...Jim the Realtor 2009

SE1 ,1059 properties for sale.About 40 transactions per month=26 months inventory.

 

E1 677 fir sale,transactiosn 28 pcm=24 months inventroy

 

SW8 782 for sale 28 transactions pcm=28 months inventory

I reckon there is even more supply in SW8 and especially SE1 than will be included in those stats. I doubt developers of huge blocks list all the flats at once. Still more blocks being built. Those prices have a long way to drop.

If there isn't a big return to offices then there could be a lot of offices converted to flats. I'd expect older buildings rather than the latest office towers. They're still building office skyscrapers in the city and canary wharf. These will be prestigious but what are they worth to rent? I expect prices will fall and older offices that aren't up to the latest standards will be converted to flats. Especially in the city fringes. Some rich people will want a small flat for the two or three days a week they do in the office. So some extra demand. Overall flats should come down in price. Everything is against them. People want office and outdoor space at home. Medium term it could lead to a renaissance in central living if young adults can afford to live near the centre. That means much lower prices. A realignment the country needs. There would be similar effects in other cities but to a lesser extent where there is a lower proportion of office jobs.

[Wight Flight]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If there isn't a big return to offices then there could be a lot of offices converted to flats.

Yep. People will be living at work, not working at home.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon there is even more supply in SW8 and especially SE1 than will be included in those stats. I doubt developers of huge blocks list all the flats at once. Still more blocks being built. Those prices have a long way to drop.

If there isn't a big return to offices then there could be a lot of offices converted to flats. I'd expect older buildings rather than the latest office towers. They're still building office skyscrapers in the city and canary wharf. These will be prestigious but what are they worth to rent? I expect prices will fall and older offices that aren't up to the latest standards will be converted to flats. Especially in the city fringes. Some rich people will want a small flat for the two or three days a week they do in the office. So some extra demand. Overall flats should come down in price. Everything is against them. People want office and outdoor space at home. Medium term it could lead to a renaissance in central living if young adults can afford to live near the centre. That means much lower prices. A realignment the country needs. There would be similar effects in other cities but to a lesser extent where there is a lower proportion of office jobs.

The stuff I put up on LE2 showed that for semis in that psotcode there was two months supply.WHoich puts into perspective some of the issues big developers will have shiofting stock.

It's well known they dribble it onto the market so the stock available in thsoe London postcodes is likely an under estimate.

Forus postcodes suffering strutural supply issues doesn't make abear market.But it should make you consdier the possiblitiy that one is in the offing.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I reckon there is even more supply in SW8 and especially SE1 than will be included in those stats. I doubt developers of huge blocks list all the flats at once. Still more blocks being built. Those prices have a long way to drop.

If there isn't a big return to offices then there could be a lot of offices converted to flats. I'd expect older buildings rather than the latest office towers. They're still building office skyscrapers in the city and canary wharf. These will be prestigious but what are they worth to rent? I expect prices will fall and older offices that aren't up to the latest standards will be converted to flats. Especially in the city fringes. Some rich people will want a small flat for the two or three days a week they do in the office. So some extra demand. Overall flats should come down in price. Everything is against them. People want office and outdoor space at home. Medium term it could lead to a renaissance in central living if young adults can afford to live near the centre. That means much lower prices. A realignment the country needs. There would be similar effects in other cities but to a lesser extent where there is a lower proportion of office jobs.

ALso I think covid has reined in a lot of big companies desire for CRE.Two days a week in the office looks the best result,keeep staff in touch but reduces costs consdiereably with everyone hot desking.

CRE is the reall issue here.If they can't repurpose it then it comes back to the lenders and they have Dowd Buckner's sub 3% in the main ......bleak times if they catch a cold here.

[Castlevania]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Thanks for the info Yadda.Very interesing.Youve picked some winners right there.wouldn't fancy being a seller in any of these postcodes.

'Price fixes everything.....'...Jim the Realtor 2009

SE1 ,1059 properties for sale.About 40 transactions per month=26 months inventory.

 

E1 677 fir sale,transactiosn 28 pcm=24 months inventroy

 

SW8 782 for sale 28 transactions pcm=28 months inventory

Those areas are skewed somewhat by the sheer number of flats they’ve built over the past decade. However, SE1 peaked around 2014. My mate sold up in 2015 and moved out to Kent, which in retrospect was very good timing. He wouldn’t get as much as he sold for now and the house in Kent would cost him a lot more.

[Castlevania]

Anyhow Prime Central London peaked in 2013 just before George Osborne wacked up taxes on foreign ownership and anti money laundering checks came in. The areas where the wealthy but not super rich live in such as Fulham, Clapham etc peaked in 2014. As you go further out and into previously undesirable areas the peak prices came later. I used to live in Brockley and for flats and terraced houses that area peaked in 2016. The exception here are the big Victorian villas and townhouses that haven’t been sub divided into flats and have massive gardens, they’re selling for record amounts. Although they were comparatively cheap. There was a good window where you could trade up from an average terrace in somewhere such as Clapham for a 3000 square foot townhouse with a 100 plus foot long garden.

Edited August 15, 2021 by Castlevania

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Anyhow Prime Central London peaked in 2013 just before George Osborne wacked up taxes on foreign ownership and anti money laundering checks came in. The areas where the wealthy but not super rich live in such as Fulham, Clapham etc peaked in 2014. As you go further out and into previously undesirable areas the peak prices came later. I used to live in Brockley and for flats and terraced houses that area peaked in 2016. The exception here are the big Victorian villas that haven’t been sub divided into flats and have massive gardens, they’re selling for record amounts.

It seems that way.

 Unpfime Londons been falling for at least 5 years.

God knows what it'll be like post covid and as all the IO mortgages end.

What's going to happen when it dawns on owner that London properdee has gone nowhere for 20 years?

You get the same befuddlement when the owners in Scarborough face selling for less than they bought almost 20 years ago.

And, currently, they are only managing to shift a small percentage of For Sales.

And it's not like prices look low compared to local incomes. They could halve and still be historically pricey.

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

It seems that way.

 Unpfime Londons been falling for at least 5 years.

God knows what it'll be like post covid and as all the IO mortgages end.

What's going to happen when it dawns on owner that London properdee has gone nowhere for 20 years?

You get the same befuddlement when the owners in Scarborough face selling for less than they bought almost 20 years ago.

And, currently, they are only managing to shift a small percentage of For Sales.

And it's not like prices look low compared to local incomes. They could halve and still be historically pricey.

If you bought anywhere in zone 1 and 2 at any time in the past five years unless you bought something with a massive garden then you will be underwater.

[Hancock]

13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

If you bought anywhere in zone 1 and 2 at any time in the past five years unless you bought something with a massive garden then you will be underwater.

I think many people buying in these places are more interested on hiding their money as opposed to making money.

If you bought almost anywhere else in the country from 2016 you'd have made a fortune.

Property market crash really was different this time, and we really are living in a new paradigm. (a comment that used to be mocked on HPC)

Edited August 15, 2021 by Hancock

[Hancock]

Dave's turned into Davina.

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, Hancock said:

If you bought almost anywhere else in the country from 2014 you've made an absolute fortune.

That's the funniest thing I've heard today, try Ashington or any other former Colliery wasteland full of houses for the 'working classes'.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111839573#/?channel=RES_BUY

or a whole 3-bedroomed house.

Its actually very tidy, fully modernised throughout other than the broken window.

Yours for 3K less than 201 price.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111826679#/?channel=RES_BUY

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

That's the funniest thing I've heard today, try Ashington or any other former Colliery wasteland full of houses for the 'working classes'.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111839573#/?channel=RES_BUY

or a whole 3-bedroomed house.

Its actually very tidy, fully modernised throughout other than the broken window.

Yours for 3K less than 201 price.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111826679#/?channel=RES_BUY

Ashington is somewhere no one would want to live unless they're from there, try looking at Morpeth and the better places not too far.

I really cant be bothered to get into a debate about whether house prices have gone up since 2016, as quite simply they have and no link to some shithole is going to convince me otherwise.

You can get a place for 40k in Hull, but you wouldn't want to live there ... whereas prices in Beverley have gone though the roof in recent years.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^94430&minBedrooms=2&radius=3.0&sortType=1&propertyTypes=bungalow%2Cdetached%2Csemi-detached%2Cterraced&includeSSTC=false&mustHave=&dontShow=&furnishTypes=&keywords=

Edited August 15, 2021 by Hancock

[Green Devil]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ashington is somewhere no one would want to live unless they're from there, try looking at Morpeth and the better places not too far.

I really cant be bothered to get into a debate about whether house prices have gone up since 2016, as the quite simply have and no link to some shithole is going to convince me otherwise.

I think theres a message in there somewhere, stirling board over the windows 🤣🤣

[Green Devil]

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

It seems that way.

 Unpfime Londons been falling for at least 5 years.

God knows what it'll be like post covid and as all the IO mortgages end.

What's going to happen when it dawns on owner that London properdee has gone nowhere for 20 years?

You get the same befuddlement when the owners in Scarborough face selling for less than they bought almost 20 years ago.

And, currently, they are only managing to shift a small percentage of For Sales.

And it's not like prices look low compared to local incomes. They could halve and still be historically pricey.

Anyone watch "War of the Worlds" on disney. It looks exactly like london. It is london 🤣 just imagine theres no dead bodies strewn around and youre there (oh hang on there are usually dead bodies in london already) 😂😂

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

I think theres a message in there somewhere, stirling board over the windows 🤣🤣

The best a buyer could hope for is that the cannabis factory wasn't wired up properly, but its more likely to have been an arson attack.

I know this area and Ashington, and for an outsider the Hull location is probably safer .... on the basis there are more people to blend in with!

Edited August 15, 2021 by Hancock

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Anyhow Prime Central London peaked in 2013 just before George Osborne wacked up taxes on foreign ownership and anti money laundering checks came in. The areas where the wealthy but not super rich live in such as Fulham, Clapham etc peaked in 2014. As you go further out and into previously undesirable areas the peak prices came later. I used to live in Brockley and for flats and terraced houses that area peaked in 2016. The exception here are the big Victorian villas and townhouses that haven’t been sub divided into flats and have massive gardens, they’re selling for record amounts. Although they were comparatively cheap. There was a good window where you could trade up from an average terrace in somewhere such as Clapham for a 3000 square foot townhouse with a 100 plus foot long garden.

I'm here to learn CV.I have no idea about London geography.I find the Walthamstow one with 3 months or so inventory as quite astounding.

Fulham-SW10 .Second chart shows you're right on the pricing being down over last decade

427 properties,average 17 sales over last year=25 months inventory

 

 

SW4-Clapham-398/36=11 months inventroy

Brockley SE13-279/41=6.8 months iventory,

[reformed nice guy]

Will 100,000+ Afghans flooding in help keep prices up?