Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The only fix for that is a crash.

Well with our debt averse, Thatcherite (people claim she was a capitalist), Hayek loving chancellor then he'll no doubt let the market correct itself in time.

Thats what he is according to the DT; though to my mind he's into communist levels of state interference, with a love of house price inflation and giving money to the rich.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/09/boris-johnsons-big-spending-gamble-could-cast-tories-political/

I walk round England and see the fat thick as fuck useless cunts everywhere, yet most of them have played the property/debt market far better than those who've read up on bubble-economics.

Just shows being pig ignorant is all that is needed to get you through life in the UK.

[Don Coglione]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Well with our debt averse, Thatcherite (people claim she was a capitalist), Hayek loving chancellor then he'll no doubt let the market correct itself in time.

Thats what he is according to the DT; though to my mind he's into communist levels of state interference, with a love of house price inflation and giving money to the rich.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/09/boris-johnsons-big-spending-gamble-could-cast-tories-political/

I walk round England and see the fat thick as fuck useless cunts everywhere, yet most of them have played the property/debt market far better than those who've read up on bubble-economics.

Just shows being pig ignorant is all that is needed to get you through life in the UK.

Politicians rather like getting elected. People elect politicians who give them stuff they like. People like rising house prices, so politicians oblige. Not seeing this is the great stupidity, irrespective of the rights, wrongs and ultimate fall-out.

The hpc retards constantly and continually bemoan the fact that the housing market IS the UK economy, then fight against it and pray for its collapse. What's that definition of stupidity again...?

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Politicians rather like getting elected. People elect politicians who give them stuff they like. People like rising house prices, so politicians oblige. Not seeing this is the great stupidity, irrespective of the rights, wrongs and ultimate fall-out.

The hpc retards constantly and continually bemoan the fact that the housing market IS the UK economy, then fight against it and pray for its collapse. What's that definition of stupidity again...?

I can only presume you're one of the newer breed on HPC, who claim a HPC would be bad for the economy.

Though it did turn out most on that website actually owned a house so had fuck all skin in the game. (

The people who didn't buy, would not make the bollocks claim you talk of.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Hancock

[Green Devil]

15 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Well with our debt averse, Thatcherite (people claim she was a capitalist), Hayek loving chancellor then he'll no doubt let the market correct itself in time.

Thats what he is according to the DT; though to my mind he's into communist levels of state interference, with a love of house price inflation and giving money to the rich.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/09/boris-johnsons-big-spending-gamble-could-cast-tories-political/

I walk round England and see the fat thick as fuck useless cunts everywhere, yet most of them have played the property/debt market far better than those who've read up on bubble-economics.

Just shows being pig ignorant is all that is needed to get you through life in the UK.

Not really. You dont have to be that smart to realise youre stupuid if youre paying some slimeball landlords mortgage. Might as well get your own. I guess if you were even smarter youd get the counxil to pay for your housing and living costs too 🤣🤣

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Not really. You dont have to be that smart to realise youre stupuid if youre paying some slimeball landlords mortgage. Might as well get your own. I guess if you were even smarter youd get the counxil to pay for your housing and living costs too 🤣🤣

Which is why this nation is fast on its way to being an Idiocracy, though it could have already made it to that level.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Hancock

[Don Coglione]

17 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I can only presume you're one of the newer breed on HPC, who claim a HPC would be bad for the economy.

Though it did turn out most on that website actually owned a house so had fuck all skin in the game. (

The people who didn't buy, would not make the bollocks claim you talk of.

Not that my situation is relevant, but I recently bought a house (to live in), after a period of renting. In my adult life, the split between owning and renting is about 50:50. As posted previously, my former rental went from £1250 to £1600 per month and was, frankly, shit.

I believe that high house prices are bad for the economy; as I often say, is housing were free, think how much would be spent in the real economy. However, this is not Utopia.

A slow, real-terms, fall in house prices is the best outcome I can envisage. An outright crash would devastate the economy. I believe this is being engineered, as the voting masses realise that their kids can't and won't move out. Pockets of insanity, including much of London, will see nominal falls - indeed, this is already happening. Over-leveraged landlords are fucked, especially once HMRC comes back from its Covid holiday.

I also believe that the (trillions?) of "equity" locked in housing will be picked open by the government, though I have no idea as to the mechanism. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Don Coglione

[HousePriceMania]

31 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Well with our debt averse, Thatcherite (people claim she was a capitalist), Hayek loving chancellor then he'll no doubt let the market correct itself in time.

Thats what he is according to the DT; though to my mind he's into communist levels of state interference, with a love of house price inflation and giving money to the rich.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/09/boris-johnsons-big-spending-gamble-could-cast-tories-political/

I walk round England and see the fat thick as fuck useless cunts everywhere, yet most of them have played the property/debt market far better than those who've read up on bubble-economics.

Just shows being pig ignorant is all that is needed to get you through life in the UK.

I think you're description is 1000000 times more accurate !!!

Leave the sheeple to their pretend wealth, you can't eat the sheep that escaped ;-)

 

[Option5]

12 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Not really. You dont have to be that smart to realise youre stupuid if youre paying some slimeball landlords mortgage. Might as well get your own. I guess if you were even smarter youd get the counxil to pay for your housing and living costs too 🤣🤣

I rent by choice as it gives me the freedom to move for the highest paying contracts so I can accrue cash. 

The last house I owned was sold when I realised I'd slept there two nights in a year. I happened to sell it in 2007 just before the prices crashed.

I'll buy a small place to retire to with cash when I get fed up with working.

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Which is why this nation is fast on its way to being an Idiocracy, though it could have already made it to that level.

Way past.

They've basically paid the stupid people to breed then encouraged them to take on debt and work as slaves till they die, while they all live the life of riley.  1st sign of it going belly up (2007) they steal £1 Trillion,  second sign of it going belly up they steal £1T more and  they're not done yet....meanwhile the idiots celebrate their house prices, they just can't lose, despite them losing without knowing.

I had an ex-trolley dolly telling me how stupid the pilots she knew were because they were refusing the vaccination.

She truly believed what she was saying.

Edited August 10, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

The only fix for that is a crash.

 

Most likely.

NW6 ave vol over last 5 years 40 per motnh.There are 654 properties for sale in that psotcode so 16 months inventory.

 

 

by comparison LE2 ave vol over 5 years circa 80

392 for sale= 5 months inventory.

In terms of liquidity,London is very illiquid.Wouldn't want to be trying for that exit in a hurry.

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

46 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Not really. You dont have to be that smart to realise youre stupuid if youre paying some slimeball landlords mortgage. Might as well get your own. I guess if you were even smarter youd get the counxil to pay for your housing and living costs too 🤣🤣

If you're renting on a 1%-3% gross yield then I'm not sure the maths is as self evident as you claim given other costs of ownership/purchase,especially if you plan to move within 5-7 years.At 6% plus then the maths does become more compelling.In the middle is a grey area as others have said,that depends on whether you're contracting etc

Edited August 10, 2021 by sancho panza

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

If you're renting on a 1%-3% gross yield then I'm not sure the maths is as self evident as you claim given other costs of ownership/purchase,especially if you plan to move within 5-7 years.At 6% plus then the maths does become more compelling.In the middle is a grey area as others have said,that depends on whether you're contracting etc

Also if you're debt averse and don't fancy borrowing 5 times yours and the better half's salary for a shite house, at a time when interest rates should in theory only have one way to go, it doesn't mean one is a stupid!

I do look forward to the day when there is an epic house price crash, it may not be for 20 years or it may just be around the corner, but i will rejoice at watching all these stupid cunts with their property wealth and property debt get annihilated.

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Not really. You dont have to be that smart to realise youre stupuid if youre paying some slimeball landlords mortgage. Might as well get your own. I guess if you were even smarter youd get the counxil to pay for your housing and living costs too 🤣🤣

 

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

If you're renting on a 1%-3% gross yield then I'm not sure the maths is as self evident as you claim given other costs of ownership/purchase,especially if you plan to move within 5-7 years.At 6% plus then the maths does become more compelling.In the middle is a grey area as others have said,that depends on whether you're contracting etc

In terms of Io btl you're just paying tge interest.

The capital remains unpaid.

Theres a very large number if ifiot LL who ought portfolios at 80k/house in the late 00s, only to exit at 40k/house loss in 10s.

London / SE have had a good post 2008. But that seems long gone now.

London property has been falling for a good 5 years.

Fuck knows what the state of voids are like now.

 

[sancho panza]

44 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Also if you're debt averse and don't fancy borrowing 5 times yours and the better half's salary for a shite house, at a time when interest rates should in theory only have one way to go, it doesn't mean one is a stupid!

I do look forward to the day when there is an epic house price crash, it may not be for 20 years or it may just be around the corner, but i will rejoice at watching all these stupid cunts with their property wealth and property debt get annihilated.

 

There's that as well.

Sadly,thanks to covid,it's rather destroyed my move up the foodchain to achieve the 1.5% gross yield rental of my ambition.

Prices in the UK are absurd and when I look at those charts from London I posted earlier showing 16 months inventory,it really is obvious that there are a lot of people stacked the wrong side of the ship for disembarkation.16 months become 24 months even if inventyory stays flat if transactions halve.

I was looking at the Dowd Buckner(market cap/total assets) ratio's of UK banks the other day and Barclays look like they're in a spot of bother.People forget don't they?

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

If you're renting on a 1%-3% gross yield then I'm not sure the maths is as self evident as you claim given other costs of ownership/purchase,especially if you plan to move within 5-7 years.At 6% plus then the maths does become more compelling.In the middle is a grey area as others have said,that depends on whether you're contracting etc

I have friends who have spent more on kitchens than I have on rent for a decade,

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

There's that as well.

Sadly,thanks to covid,it's rather destroyed my move up the foodchain to achieve the 1.5% gross yield rental of my ambition.

Prices in the UK are absurd and when I look at those charts from London I posted earlier showing 16 months inventory,it really is obvious that there are a lot of people stacked the wrong side of the ship for disembarkation.16 months become 24 months even if inventyory stays flat if transactions halve.

I was looking at the Dowd Buckner(market cap/total assets) ratio's of UK banks the other day and Barclays look like they're in a spot of bother.People forget don't they?

PropertyLIon clearly shows that London sales volumes are out of kilter with the rest of the country, i.e. more trying to sell, less people buying.  Recipe for disaster.  The big problem is the loons moving to the shires paying well over the odds based on gains made in London that are about to evaporate.

Just who do they think they are going to sell to ?

[sancho panza]

22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

PropertyLIon clearly shows that London sales volumes are out of kilter with the rest of the country, i.e. more trying to sell, less people buying.  Recipe for disaster.  The big problem is the loons moving to the shires paying well over the odds based on gains made in London that are about to evaporate.

Just who do they think they are going to sell to ?

As karl Denninger famously said in 2008,

'He who panics first gets his money back'..................

I think if you've squeezed out of London in the last year you've done very well.As per the Dowd Buckner ratios I mentioned,this market will turn in on itself potentially at any point and you don't want to be in the crossfire.

 

Once the big banks start taking losses in lodnon-and they will-then we'll see credit get tighter across the board.The reality is that this is what whappens when a market is running on the fumes of a 10%++ fiscal deficit.

The interesting part will come when people in London start to sense prices dropping and how they react pricewise.I'm not sure there';s much rishi can do given how far from normal salaries those prices are.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

PropertyLIon clearly shows that London sales volumes are out of kilter with the rest of the country, i.e. more trying to sell, less people buying.  Recipe for disaster.  The big problem is the loons moving to the shires paying well over the odds based on gains made in London that are about to evaporate.

Just who do they think they are going to sell to ?

Ching Chong Foreigner, but the thing with London is not many indigenous Brits want to even visit there let alone live there.

People are whining about the insane cost of hotels this summer, yet you can get a 4 star hotel in central London with breakfast if you book a few days in advance.

Seems people would sooner pay £300 a night several months in advance for a Travelodge in Cornwall than visit where the "elite" hang out.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I have friends who have spent more on kitchens than I have on rent for a decade,

Lad i used to knock about with and his chubby bird are both thick as pigs shit; anyway he went to work one day and came home to find out his Mrs had spent £8000 on a new kitchen (this is round about the year 2000), it was no different to the £1500 Wickes sold at the time.

Though obviously the brochure she got it from was far nicer.

Needless to say within a few years they went bankrupt.

[Don Coglione]

10 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Lad i used to knock about with and his chubby bird are both thick as pigs shit; anyway he went to work one day and came home to find out his Mrs had spent £8000 on a new kitchen (this is round about the year 2000), it was no different to the £1500 Wickes sold at the time.

Though obviously the brochure she got it from was far nicer.

Needless to say within a few years they went bankrupt.

Even if the C*unt has been renting a shed, 100 grand on a kitchen in Northampton seems unlikely...

[HousePriceMania]

9 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Even if the C*unt has been renting a shed, 100 grand on a kitchen in Northampton seems unlikely...

Even stalkers can be funny.

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Ching Chong Foreigner, but the thing with London is not many indigenous Brits want to even visit there let alone live there.

People are whining about the insane cost of hotels this summer, yet you can get a 4 star hotel in central London with breakfast if you book a few days in advance.

Seems people would sooner pay £300 a night several months in advance for a Travelodge in Cornwall than visit where the "elite" hang out.

I had a quick look at that, weekend after next, short notice, during the summer hols...

 

[Popuplights]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371

@Hancock look at this shit. 

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371

@Hancock look at this shit. 

Thats horrific, its as if anyone on less than £150k a year is not needed ... apart from to work in shops, schools, hospitals, garages, building sites etc etc.

Someone needs to have a word with Katie Cave for talking shite about mice.

 

[spunko]

I've never been to Winchester, what's the appeal? I just assumed it to be like Rochester, or Oxford, the centre is very old and quaint, but the rest is just 1960s sprawl and could be anywhere.