Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Agent ZigZag]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

My council tax going up again by 5%. Council tax is my main worry as it is such a large percentage of my outgoings. My fear is after a few more years of continued 5% increases people will start to squeal. It will then be revamped with the new council tax levied against how energy efficient your home is. 

[geordie_lurch]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I have a question for everyone.

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

I'm now thinking it is:

Rate rise nov ( or dec ) in the UK, US tapering starts

Inflation keeps going up, mainly due to supply chains.

Dec: Stock market takes a bit of a hit

Jan/Feb, another UK rate rise, US talking about rate rise

March stock market keeps heading down, economy in the UK starts to fall apart ( i.e. house prices are falling ) 

April, UK sets rates to 0 starts QE3, or is it QE4, the US ends tapering and continues the insanity.

This should be the queue to get rid of any FIAT money you have before anyone realises what's happened.

I think we are going to see another UK lockdown before Christmas with even more small business closures and 'supply chain' disruptions. I think we will also start to mass deaths in the next 6 months i.e. everyone will know someone who has been 'vaccinated' that dies from something unusual for their age / previous risk profile. These deaths will be put down to a new Covid variant or not enough beds in the NHS etc (they have still been reducing beds for the last 18 months!) but deep down more and more will realise they have been lied to and will want revenge or certainly won't give a shit about their minimum wage jobs. All of this will lead to even more pre planned chaos and disruptions in the UK and most western nations who seem to have signed up to the Great Reset agenda. At some point the people will be begging to be 'saved' and will embrace the new Digital £ in exchange for their new Universal Basic Income / debt forgiveness / fixed mortgage from the Government as interest rates for the old £ rise too fast for the average person to stay afloat. I can see China invading Taiwan in this time frame too with no opposition from Joe Biden and his paid for cronies.

I hope I'm wrong about all of the above but I just can't see how we are ever going back to the old normal without a great deal of deaths and a real fightback from the average person as TPTB will NEVER give back the 'temporary' powers they have seized in the name of Covid

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I have a question for everyone.

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

I'm now thinking it is:

Rate rise nov ( or dec ) in the UK, US tapering starts

Inflation keeps going up, mainly due to supply chains.

Dec: Stock market takes a bit of a hit

Jan/Feb, another UK rate rise, US talking about rate rise

March stock market keeps heading down, economy in the UK starts to fall apart ( i.e. house prices are falling ) 

April, UK sets rates to 0 starts QE3, or is it QE4, the US ends tapering and continues the insanity.

 

This should be the queue to get rid of any FIAT money you have before anyone realises what's happened.

 

 

 

I haven't got a fecking clue!  I have a system I need to use more religiously which takes the stock, etc data and tells me what to do.

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

My fear is after a few more years of continued 5% increases people will start to squeal. It will then be revamped with the new council tax levied against how energy efficient your home is. 

I very much like the lateral thinking, if not the result! 

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

Pandemonium next year.  Nothing ground breaking there I'm just quoting David Hunter basically, BK and Euro/British banks are in a worse state now

[Noallegiance]

Government defeat as peers demand action to bolster future telecoms security (msn.com)

[Noallegiance]

Rishi Sunak 'will slash banks levy by 60 per cent in Budget' (msn.com)

[Noallegiance]

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think we are going to see another UK lockdown before Christmas with even more small business closures and 'supply chain' disruptions. I think we will also start to mass deaths in the next 6 months i.e. everyone will know someone who has been 'vaccinated' that dies from something unusual for their age / previous risk profile. These deaths will be put down to a new Covid variant or not enough beds in the NHS etc (they have still been reducing beds for the last 18 months!) but deep down more and more will realise they have been lied to and will want revenge or certainly won't give a shit about their minimum wage jobs. All of this will lead to even more pre planned chaos and disruptions in the UK and most western nations who seem to have signed up to the Great Reset agenda. At some point the people will be begging to be 'saved' and will embrace the new Digital £ in exchange for their new Universal Basic Income / debt forgiveness / fixed mortgage from the Government as interest rates for the old £ rise too fast for the average person to stay afloat. I can see China invading Taiwan in this time frame too with no opposition from Joe Biden and his paid for cronies.

I hope I'm wrong about all of the above but I just can't see how we are ever going back to the old normal without a great deal of deaths and a real fightback from the average person as TPTB will NEVER give back the 'temporary' powers they have seized in the name of Covid

I wasn't even factoring in Covid, what a great excuse for not raise IRs ( or putting them -ve ). 

 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

All of this will lead to even more pre planned chaos and disruptions in the UK and most western nations who seem to have signed up to the Great Reset agenda.

I expect they will crash the markets (housing, fiat, stocks, crypto, etc) at times that suit them. 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Government defeat as peers demand action to bolster future telecoms security (msn.com)

Stupid logic (diversify to include our threats to provide more security!*#?!!) so not the real reason (graft?), but anyway sounds like hot air ("write something") other than how the 5 eyes peer review is implemented (odd requirement = stitch up?).  As I said people talk and report self serving bullocks, especially them. 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Gullible idiots incapable of thinking outside the herd of ruminants.

Been digesting the chief morons BS about £5K grants for air-source heat pumps for houses.

A typical modest house needs a 30,000 BTU gas boiler and that is about 11KW.

You get one of these and stick it somewhere, they are quite big in comparison.

Now roughly 2.5KW of electricity turns itself into 10KW of heat in ideal conditions which is wonderful.

However no curves are shown to show that if the outside temperature drops that sweet spot of 1:4 drops until it goes negative at -15C where you are putting 2.5KW in but getting less than that out.

Unlike cars people also tend to have heating on at the same time and when the air is still, clear and very cold there is no wind. So electricity demand goes through the roof, heating ability drops and so does the electricity supply.

So every house with one will be probably drawing 5KW min and the net demand is huge.

More diesel farms or STOR facilities it is and very expensive electricity.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/353632946253

Yes, the government scheme runs until 2024, but I note that the year after their hydrogen pilot reports in 2025. I predict hydrogen will still be favored over heat pumps. As you say heat pumps are inefficient and also require massive electric grid upgrade. All this will become apparent by 2025, and so a dash for hydrogen conversion will begin plus the government has bought itself 3 more years of can kicking.

[Sugarlips]

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

My word, once people twig they are soon expected to work past 70 they won’t want to play anymore.

I’m foolishly voluntarily paying NI contributions (since I’ve been MIA overseas for so long) but should pull the plug.

[HousePriceMania]

27 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

My word, once people twig they are soon expected to work past  NOT COLLECT THE STATE PENSION 70 they won’t want to play anymore.

I’m foolishly voluntarily paying NI contributions (since I’ve been MIA overseas for so long) but should pull the plug.

 

[spygirl]

44 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

I know its obvious but theyd do better forcing 95% of working age people to work rather than pissing around and putting 1 years on UK SRA.

Baby boys born in the UK in 2018 can expect to live on average to age 87.6 years and girls to age 90.2 years, taking into account projected changes in mortality patterns over their lifetime.

In 25 years, cohort life expectancy at birth in the UK is projected to increase by 2.8 years to reach 90.4 years for boys and by 2.4 years to 92.6 years for girls born in 2043.

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

and receiving other peoples tax.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

and receiving other peoples tax.

Yep.

 

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, the government scheme runs until 2024, but I note that the year after their hydrogen pilot reports in 2025. I predict hydrogen will still be favored over heat pumps. As you say heat pumps are inefficient and also require massive electric grid upgrade. All this will become apparent by 2025, and so a dash for hydrogen conversion will begin plus the government has bought itself 3 more years of can kicking.

99% certain on that.It will be hydrogen.BP will build a massive plant on Teesside and they will use gas and carbon capture for it,blue hydrogen.Green will come later,government knows this like you say,hence why such a small amount of money for heat pumps.Cars might go the same way yet.

 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

And a large chunk of the other half was built so shabbily it won't last 100 years!  Passivhauses these are not!

The only thing made to last 100 years on current new builds is the  debt to buy it!

[Hancock]

52 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Rishi Sunak 'will slash banks levy by 60 per cent in Budget' (msn.com)

 

51 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

Work longer slaves, we need to drop banker taxes so our millionaire communist bosses and their minions don't have to cut their wages.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I know its obvious but theyd do better forcing 95% of working age people to work rather than pissing around and putting 1 years on UK SRA.

Baby boys born in the UK in 2018 can expect to live on average to age 87.6 years and girls to age 90.2 years, taking into account projected changes in mortality patterns over their lifetime.

In 25 years, cohort life expectancy at birth in the UK is projected to increase by 2.8 years to reach 90.4 years for boys and by 2.4 years to 92.6 years for girls born in 2043.

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

 

Yep and the government dont want to deal with it so instead hammer those who do work.Its one of the reasons people are dropping out etc.Everything is falling apart because so much is wasted on welfare,councils and the NHS.There are more police retired in my close on full pensions at 50 than on duty in my town.In my close.My birth town is now under siege from a group of young teens,stoning cars,women with prams,pensioners walking the dog etc every night in the same spot.The police do nothing.Iv spent the last few weeks getting the names and addresses of their fathers from some of my old contacts just in case my dad gets hit,anything.If he does a couple of very good friends of mine from the past will be coming over from Boro,and il be a grand lighter.

Losing our mass employment industry at the same time as pushing up welfare hugely has been a disaster for this country.The budget will be interesting given the structural deficit and QE running out.

 

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep and the government dont want to deal with it so instead hammer those who do work.Its one of the reasons people are dropping out etc.Everything is falling apart because so much is wasted on welfare,

 

OK earlier today i heard the best welfare scam there is.

Bloke ive been speaking to lives on a boat, with moorings close to where he is costing up to £20,000 a year.

Benefit claimant buys £200,000 boat to live on and stops working ... then housing benefit has to pay the boat moorings as its deemed rent on their address .... something akin to annual fees on a flat which HB also pays!

People paying boat moorings out of their wages are not happy .... but that doesn't matter as benefit claimant and rentier who owns the moorings are overjoyed!

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The UK’s plebs money is only tied up in two areas. Owned outright property and pensions.

All the BTL brigade and the younger generation have is debt. This can easily be called in by the banks, when IR rise, people can no longer afford costs of living through inflation and assets are seized. This is great for the government as it means they’ll be in servitude forever more. (Almost like the stamp duty holiday was intended frothing the housing market into the stratosphere knowing what was coming later down the line)

With the locked up boomer cash, the government will ‘incentivise’ releasing this however possible. Having one/two pensioners rattling around in a 4 bed house is not what they want. Tax, tax, tax. Force the boomers out of their old, carbon pumping, planet killing dwellings with taxes (which will probably replace council tax).

Next comes pensions, remove the £40k tax relief down to minimum, reduce maximum lifetime limit, remove the tax free lump sum on access, and raise taxes on drawdowns or some kind of means tested method.

In regards to the public sector pensions, it’s far more simple. Most public sector pensions now are linked to state pension age (Alpha scheme etc). Raise state pension age to 70+ and beyond, increase contribution %, so that most opt out as they can’t afford the deductions. Make the carrot impossible to reach in other words.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/public-sector-pension-liabilities-bigger-than-national-debt-vwb9rj6xh

Now all this won’t be vote winning stuff, but they’re past the point of caring about such triviality like that. Dictatorial government powers are now in vogue, they can do whatever the fuck they like.

Alternatively they just can go full on fast forward into crashing the economy through the floor, to get it all out of the way. We can then all look forward to our dystopian 1984 UBI utopia.

You say wealth taxes wouldn't be a vote winner... But I do wonder if certain wealth taxes could, rather easily, be 'politically sold' as a vote winner? How about the ostensibly very difficult introduction of property taxes on owners main house gains (many countries already do this; maybe a charge secured on the property, to be paid after death), but in return the government could, say, give you private medical insurance vouchers/social care top up? Horrible idea I know. But a politically convenient way perhaps to begin introducing private medicine to the masses, plus tax hypothecation has already started with the latest NI increase supposedly going into social care in 3 years time.... 'Nudging' people is what it's about and in times of covid/climate crises much more easy to do, especially along with the project 'fear' element that many in society it appears have already embraced, and fully backed up it seems by the medical fraternity and other professional hierarchies.

[Inigo]

I spoke to a supplier this morning who said that they are struggling to get a certain type of steel.  Current estimated delivery is December 2022.  If that becomes more widespread I can see it having a knock-on effect on many industries.

[Hancock]

Ominous.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/downing-street-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-21914040#source=breaking-news