Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

57 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happened to www.bullionbypost.co.uk, seems to have disappeared today 

Seems that was my system.

Zopa returned all the lending peers money ( as they're now a bank ) so went ant got myself 50 pieces of silver.

I should sent it t to Conservative HQ.

[WICAO]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you move abroad you can still keep the ISA so can trade on it. The only thing you can't do is add more money to it after the tax year that you move. You can also change providers and start contributing again if you come back to the UK. It also says you still get UK Tax Relief on it but I thought where you moved might have something to say about that, double taxation treaty etc.

https://www.gov.uk/individual-savings-accounts/if-you-move-abroad

To add to DC's post sharing my experience as I'm living it so might be helpful.  Generally, I've kept my ISA as a hedge just in case I ever return to the UK except I'm doing the following:

• My ISA provider knows I'm a non-resident and it's caused no problems as far as they're concerned.
• I now extract all the dividends and use them here in Australia to gradually move my life but I could reinvest them within the ISA if I chose. 
• I'm also slowly selling down the ISA as I gain more confidence we'll stay to continue that life transition to Aus.  To put that in perspective since arriving in Aus I've only extracted £45k so it's a real slow plan to hedge a return to the UK if needed but also to control Aus tax (see below).
• I now can't add new money as DC says.

Here in Aus:

• All the dividends within the ISA need to be declared on my Aus tax return and are fully taxed.
• Capital gains are also taxed with some nuances.  The cost base is considered to be the value of the assets on the day I became Aus resident rather than the original purchase cost - useful.  Hold the asset for 12 months from date of residency or 12 months from date of purchase if done while an Aus resident and one gets a 50% discount - useful.  No annual CGT allowance - not useful.

As always DYOR.

[CannonFodder]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

You're not sure you need to look at the price action before buying stuff?  I assume you misunderstood.  I was not predicting.  I was saying it has not done well during the recent narratives.  I did suggest it might go lower before..... so I was not dissing the long term bull case.  It was being used as an example of how you need to look at all three things.  That was the point of the post.  BTW, GCL being stock based is probably like PMs and probably moves a derivative or so away from the underlying but I wasn't trying to do a deep dive on the sector.

I probly confused things with my post sorry.

I agree that the narrative of to the moon doesnt match the technicals.

I dont have strong feelings on uranium, i really cant tell. Was hoping to strike up a conversation on it really. I dont own any but it does interest me.

I tend to buy out of favour stocks so the price action I look for is levelling off after a drop. I.m not a chartist and dont draw lines cos i havent learned, i just say wow that.s cheap or not as case may be.

I think uranium is pretty high atm, needs to go lower for me

[CannonFodder]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Seems that was my system.

Zopa returned all the lending peers money ( as they're now a bank ) so went ant got myself 50 pieces of silver.

I should sent it t to Conservative HQ.

Thought going rate was 30 pieces of silver for tory hq , inflation everywhere

[With a crooked smile]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

To be fair though a lot of people did buy self sufficient micro accommodation i.e. camper vans and motorhomes which caused a massive surge in their prices and it will be interesting to see how the price of these goes in 2022.

Huge inflation. A motorhome that was around 50k new 2 years ago now goes for circa 70k. And the used ones have actually gone up in value. Couldn't make it up. 

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I probly confused things with my post sorry.

I agree that the narrative of to the moon doesnt match the technicals.

I dont have strong feelings on uranium, i really cant tell. Was hoping to strike up a conversation on it really. I dont own any but it does interest me.

I tend to buy out of favour stocks so the price action I look for is levelling off after a drop. I.m not a chartist and dont draw lines cos i havent learned, i just say wow that.s cheap or not as case may be.

I think uranium is pretty high atm, needs to go lower for me

Sure, let's converse away!  I liked it and GCL was may darling but seems to have crashed behind my back. I should pay more attention!  I was laddering in late so not a lot of money down (but lost profits!) and I'll hold for now even though the daily and monthly seem to want to go lower and the weekly just tried but failed to pop.  I like this vehicle as it avoids trying to sort out the miners (some of which are not ISA, SIPP, etc compatible).  I may branch out into stocks later but held off as they were all at highs.  I thought better to buy the one trust so I could get in and out quicker (good idea, bad execution!).  Maybe a good time to search for individual stocks, Ukraine permitting!  I also hold the Sprott (pure) uranium fund.  That's doing better but has stalled on the monthly, is easing on the weekly, and looking weak on the daily.  A long term hold for me so I'll accumulate on weakness.  IMO the macro and fundamental cases are bullish, it's just a question of waiting for the price to come to me.  I thought it wasn't going to and, as always when I think this impossible, it eventually does!  I'm always learning!

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I tend to buy out of favour stocks so the price action I look for is levelling off after a drop. I.m not a chartist and dont draw lines cos i havent learned, i just say wow that.s cheap or not as case may be.

That's pretty much my approach in essence, just with some bells and whistles and fancy words.  I don't draw lines either!  I actually wait for a possible strong signal a stock wants to go up (yes, usually after a fall, or "clear out" as I call it).  I look for early indications it wants to go up and that the future (per say the monthly chart) has room for it to do so.  So I don't like to buy stuff that's already run.  Which is exactly what I did with GCL and I got rightly spanked! 

In technical terms, I refer to "oversold" and "overbought" with precise definitions of both.  Overbought stuff can become more overbought but that's a more risky place IMO as it's probably approaching a volatile end stage of a run more suited to a trader.  Like you, I like to buy to hold for quite a time and not get stressed by monitoring an end game play out, especially if there are easier less risky plays for my money (something that's been hard of late with these broadly overbought markets).  Likewise though an oversold stock can become more oversold so I have an approach to try and filter (most?) of these out, plus using laddering.  Then there's the whole world of pain trying to decide when to sell!

Our approaches are similar.  You can often just look at a basic chart and see what's likely to happen (or rather avoid buying something overbought).  All I'm doing is trying to drill down a bit and get more precision.  But I fully accept this is an art not a science so I will never nail things (some economists seem to have lost this fundamental premise).  In stats terms its BLUE type stuff.  It's essentially a probability game where you try to maintain an edge.  Hence the importance of asset allocation, etc over the top of it all.  This is the nature of the beast and IMO the successful are either lucky or appreciate it.

I settled on this approach as a macro/fundamental guy who was often right but remained poor!  I just screen stocks looking for them to pop and then look into them.  That is, let them come to me.  The other way around (including watchlists) sounds too religious as I tend to just take things as they are rather than as I expect or want them to be.

None of it is perfect nor particularly successful but it suits me.  Each to their own and good luck (but we should talk more!)!

[Heart's Ease]

15 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Huge inflation. A motorhome that was around 50k new 2 years ago now goes for circa 70k. And the used ones have actually gone up in value. Couldn't make it up. 

Yep. V interesting. As I've said to @Frank Hovis, it's my canary in the coalmine.

There's been huge demand since the lifting of the restrictions in the middle of 2020. Some of the old leaky, dirty wrecks that have made it back out have been eye opening.  Trade buyer on The Motorhome Man YouTube channel noted that the Parker's pricing guide equivalent got torn up pretty quickly in 2020 - which gave these tired old vans a value again.  Had a neighbour tell me his van 'had made' £15,000 since he bought it. Hmmm.

Trade buyer also said dealers were stocking up on second hand before Christmas 2021, when usually they'd hold off til afterwards.

With regard to new motorhomes, supply is super tight due to production delays due to lockdowns and knock on effects of lockdowns (and also competing with fleet buyers?).   A few recent(ish) snippets I've picked up relating to the Fiat/Citroen base vehicle is that production of the 4.99m Relay van will stop in March, auto box option cost (Fiat) has gone up from £6k to £9k, number of colours offered has reduced.  Base vehicle cost has also increased by a couple of thousand before the conversion process starts.

Also lags -  for the UK brand I follow most there's been a lag from placing an order to delivery of 6-9 months. So the new vans being delivered today were ordered back in May 2021. 

What will turn demand? Increase in cost of living/diesel price will start the grind. I've noted elsewhere here that before you put a litre of diesel in you're looking a £3k a year to keep a motorhome.  That could be diverted to household bills. Overseas travel back available will flush out those who have had a taste of the outdoors and prefer two weeks in the sun. Once the sales start, I think things will move quickly.

 

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Yep. V interesting. As I've said to @Frank Hovis, it's my canary in the coalmine.

There's been huge demand since the lifting of the restrictions in the middle of 2020. Some of the old leaky, dirty wrecks that have made it back out have been eye opening.  Trade buyer on The Motorhome Man YouTube channel noted that the Parker's pricing guide equivalent got torn up pretty quickly in 2020 - which gave these tired old vans a value again.  Had a neighbour tell me his van 'had made' £15,000 since he bought it. Hmmm.

Trade buyer also said dealers were stocking up on second hand before Christmas 2021, when usually they'd hold off til afterwards.

With regard to new motorhomes, supply is super tight due to production delays due to lockdowns and knock on effects of lockdowns (and also competing with fleet buyers?).   A few recent(ish) snippets I've picked up relating to the Fiat/Citroen base vehicle is that production of the 4.99m Relay van will stop in March, auto box option cost (Fiat) has gone up from £6k to £9k, number of colours offered has reduced.  Base vehicle cost has also increased by a couple of thousand before the conversion process starts.

Also lags -  for the UK brand I follow most there's been a lag from placing an order to delivery of 6-9 months. So the new vans being delivered today were ordered back in May 2021. 

What will turn demand? Increase in cost of living/diesel price will start the grind. I've noted elsewhere here that before you put a litre of diesel in you're looking a £3k a year to keep a motorhome.  That could be diverted to household bills. Overseas travel back available will flush out those who have had a taste of the outdoors and prefer two weeks in the sun. Once the sales start, I think things will move quickly.

 

Excellent intel thanks.  Please keep us updated as we had originally planned to regularly travel down to southern Europe for a few months this time of year but now have to wait until certain fascists have been assigned their various lampposts.  Or maybe as a Brit I will have to follow in the family's footsteps and once again visit in a tank instead, assuming we once again manage to quell the black-shirts at home!  

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

3 mobile just increased my phomne bill from £11 to £35 per month.

30 minutes later, it's now £8 per month, all inclusive everything, inflation for idiots.

 

I just had a bollocks email from Bulb saying that I was £17 in debit so they were increasing my monthly direct debit from £60 to £90 a month. Yeah, that makes sense.

[belfastchild]

14 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

What will turn demand? Increase in cost of living/diesel price will start the grind. I've noted elsewhere here that before you put a litre of diesel in you're looking a £3k a year to keep a motorhome.  That could be diverted to household bills. Overseas travel back available will flush out those who have had a taste of the outdoors and prefer two weeks in the sun. Once the sales start, I think things will move quickly.

 

Had a conversation with someone at the weekend who has money on the side expecting to see selloffs in day vans this year as people cant afford them or go back to working again. Decided to ride out the price rises the last couple of years.
Lots bought for lots of money the last couple of years, including some right tips of vans.

It will depend how desperate people get, at the start it will be offers over what they paid for them so will see if this materialises.

Had a really weird conversation this morning from someone asking what I know about guano. Fuck all other than a trip to guano point on the grand canyon once upon a time. Seems there is a combination of fertilizer shortages, fertilizer import tax increasing in the usa and prices rising about to cause problems down the line. If i start to see articles on the history of guano point in the media in the next month or so I'll be kicking myself for selling out of K+S and then nutrien (still in mosaic despite wanting to sell last week)

[Harley]

As we were talking about O&G pipelines, one popped up today.  Yielding a nice number and with a reasonable level of debt.  OK, let's have a look.  Hang on, why no price to book ratio?  Over to the balance sheet.  But there's $1B of equity on assets of $2B!  Puzzled.  Bad data again?  Oh, hang on, let's click on that "Equity" figure.  Oh, Shareholder Interest is -$0.3B and Minority Interests makes up the rest!  So I buy the company and own a negative share while some other guy owns all the assets.  A new one on me (rare?).  Note to self: check the equity figure! 

[Noallegiance]

A few in my office gambled on an alt crypto.

It shit the bed with the rest, so whatever.

New 18 year old in office:

Kid: "You should invest long term"

Me: "I do"

Kid: "You got Ethereum?"

Me: ".........."

[HousePriceMania]

The helium share I pointed out and someone, I cant remember who, said they'd bought (sorry btw)...has taken off again.

This is off the back of absolutely no news whatsoever.

I did buy some more at 7p with some cash.  

I hate to think what'll  happen if they actually find some helium.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The helium share I pointed out and someone, I cant remember who, said they'd bought (sorry btw)...has taken off again.

This is off the back of absolutely no news whatsoever.

I did buy some more at 7p with some cash.  

I hate to think what'll  happen if they actually find some helium.

Wow, quite a pop (plus 41m volume on a £74m cap!).  So off I go to the financials.  Er, none!  And now I'm talking funny!

[working woman]

On 19/01/2022 at 15:54, Boon said:

Don't know if posted already but this is a classic Mumsnet in the making!

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4457635-For-not-wanting-to-work-full-time

Either there is gonna be some mass pain ahead, or UBI is a shoe-in.

I read the above with interest and recommend it for an insight into how some of today's average young familes are living and the level of benefits and how it is trapping people, making them dependent on the Govt and clarifies that wages are too low against benefits.

The husband earns £1400 net, (Salary 25K?) She works 2 hours a week as a cleaner, and also gets £600 a month in benefits. So, total household income is £2,200/m.

Rent is £595/month, so ok for level of "income", and they should be able to manage, but lots of debt, 2 cars, only need one, and no control over spending. 

She wants more money for the nice things in life, but is trapped by high benefits / low wages / childcare costs.  If she went back to work,  F/T 5 days a week in a min. wage job, days 1-2 would replace her benefits, days 3-5 would bring in £240 a week. Then there is childcare and work costs before she even gets to having disposable money. 

I imagine that is one of the reasons for the shortage of Carers, workers in hospitality etc.

On a side note, my husband and I  are helping to look after his Mum, who is at the end of her life. She is at home with my FIL as main carer. She has laxatives and yesterday was like something out of a horror movie. It took my FIL and I 2 hours to clean her up as she can no longer stand to get in the shower.

My husband is a Carer for people with Learning Disabilities and has done personal care. He doesn't want to work with the elderly. I now see why. If Carers looking after the elderly clean up mess like that day in day out, I take my hat off to them. They deserve way more respect and money than they get. 

Maybe a reduction in benefits and an increase in Carers wages would solve the problem. 

Just to add carers come in 3 times a day, and the local hospice has just started to send in a sitting service and someone to cover night care so FIL gets a good nights sleep. If anyone is in the same boat, help is out there if you push for it.

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

What will turn demand? Increase in cost of living/diesel price will start the grind. I've noted elsewhere here that before you put a litre of diesel in you're looking a £3k a year to keep a motorhome

Maybe, a lot of the motor homes do very limited mileage. The bigger you go typically the less us it has. A more normal sized camper van that sits on a drive way and is immediately available will be used for a lot more weekends away than a jumbo sized thing in secure storage. 

I visited the north's largest indoor dealer the other day. Almost no stock. Tradionally he would have half new and half used stock. He said the issue was so many people are buying for the first time with nothing to trade in meaning they end up with a lot less stock. 

[working woman]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Covid proably did occur 30 years ago, just no one noticed. 

Yes, the UK had Hong Kong Flu in the mid 1960's. I asked an elderly lady if she recalled it. She said yes, the only noticeable difference she recalls was milkmen stopped going house to house to stop the spread. 

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

I just had a bollocks email from Bulb saying that I was £17 in debit so they were increasing my monthly direct debit from £60 to £90 a month. Yeah, that makes sense.

Thought they'd gone bust? 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Wow, quite a pop (plus 41m volume on a £74m cap!).  So off I go to the financials.  Er, none!  And now I'm talking funny!

It's pure speculation.  Some big buys today though but IIRC they're not drilling to Q3.

[belfastchild]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60057282

Ouch! BT 9.3% increase from March.
Doesnt affect the 15 quid universal credit rate.

Another stick to beat the net neutrality lobby with.

[HousePriceMania]

Bit like the housing bubble...demand brought forward, now we have the hole.

Who else can we short ?

 

Market Summary > Peloton Interactive Inc

26.58 USD-8.09 (-23.33%)past 5 days

20 Jan, 12:56 GMT-5 • Disclaimer

NASDAQ: PTON
 

[Option5]

3 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

What will turn demand? Increase in cost of living/diesel price will start the grind. I've noted elsewhere here that before you put a litre of diesel in you're looking a £3k a year to keep a motorhome.  That could be diverted to household bills. 

Motorhomes also get hit by the new clean air zones being introduced.

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

What will turn demand? Increase in cost of living/diesel price will start the grind. I've noted elsewhere here that before you put a litre of diesel in you're looking a £3k a year to keep a motorhome.  

 

What's the 3K for ?

Insurance, storage, MOT ?

I dont know anyone with a motorhome but a few with caravans.  These seem a more sensible approach if you really have the desire to live like a pikey for 2 weeks out the year.

Is the motorhome thing a snobberty/boomer thing ?  For 3K a year I can drive and stay in a lot of premier inns.

[Don Coglione]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Bit like the housing bubble...demand brought forward, now we have the hole.

Who else can we short ?

 

Market Summary > Peloton Interactive Inc

26.58 USD-8.09 (-23.33%)past 5 days

20 Jan, 12:56 GMT-5 • Disclaimer

NASDAQ: PTON
 

Apparently I have been blocked by The C*untOf Nowhere and his "alias", but I have been shorting Peloton at $70.

Shame I am still getting fucked by shorting Tesla though...