Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, planit said:

 

Does anyone else believe Russia is making out like bandits by using all the oil profits to buy Russian companies at pennies on the pound?

All this virtue signalling is very expensive to the companies and countries carrying it out.

There was a podcast on this subject.  The scope for Russians to make a fortune (PMs, etc too) has been huge.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah I didn't see events like Germany finally getting it's act together on defence, or central bank being sanctioned coming. I'm going to take a hit this week I think, but I'm delighted to see NATO strengthening, because the amazing Ukrainians have shamed them into it. You'd almost forgotten what a real leader looked like. I'm going to keep Gaz and Poly long term, I'm well diversified so not a big hit overall, but JRS ...hmmm... I'll have to think about that one. 

The German pivot iis a really big deal macro wise imo. I really didn't think they had it in them. Nothing like ranks rolling across the Steppe to focus minds, thank God Merkel isn't there. All of this is going to feed into commodity prices and inflation of course. I wonder what precious metals will make of it this week. Good luck to all!

 

 

God, i hate conspiracy theories, but by God this is convenient for the western central bankers, yet again

 

Ill have my 10% of something than 100% of nothing, thanks 

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Whats your timescale?

5 years is a long time in geopolitics

Emigrating in August, but looking to buy by the end of the year, then rent it out and use that to pay my rent overseas!

Should there be an agreement between Ukraine/Russia in the next few days/weeks then presumably all these shares will go ballistic again and maybe i make some money .... as i imply ive been a silly boy to be gambling money that's meant for stability, so will make this my last time. If i was at home i don't believe i'd have been so stupid.

 

 

 

 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 but JRS ...hmmm... I'll have to think about that one. 

That was a schoolboy error buying that, can see POLY,GAZ, LUKOIL bouncing if peace is reached, but some of the stuff in there will be getting decimated with the ruble imploding.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

They could drive the price higher by selling oil for gold on very favourable terms? Increase the buying power of their gold reserves and cause a headache for the west who want the gold price suppressed.

Interesting thread...

 

Now which countries (really, both ways) have the gold.......!

[HousePriceMania]

On 24/02/2022 at 10:57, Hunty said:

Nursing some pain today, will wait for the Yanks to open to see what and when to buy. 

A lesson to any new investors; spread your risk, the screen grab will never be forgotten. RIP.

 

Jesus Hunty. I hope your okay. That's proper crazy. 

I though Putin was bluffing and the Yankers were doing a WMD or I'd have sold out. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Putin can demand payment in gold, bitcoin or tiddlywinks. It's a seller's market.

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

 

These fucking clowns 🤦🤦🤦

[Plan-b]

36 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Been skiing in Italy last week, have i missed much? 

Yeh house prices dropped by 80%, but have since gone back up. So we all dipped our bread and are BTL millionaires, other than that it's been pretty quiet. Hope you had a nice time.! 

[DurhamBorn]

Russian Military's radio station UVB-76, also known as "the buzzer", has been COMPLETELY HIJACKED!! UKRANIAN EUROVISION SONGS ARE PLAYING ON FREQUENCY!!!!

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yeh house prices dropped by 80%, but have since gone back up. So we all dipped our bread and are BTL millionaires, other than that it's been pretty quiet. Hope you had a nice time.! 

Offered on a ski apartment when i was away. Will offer to pay in Russian shares 

[Harley]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think thats the likely outcome,and a good outcome for everyone.Putin saves face by getting those "Russian" areas back ,likely his plan.West looks good for "saving" Ukraine,government can go fiscal mad in case "those ruskies" try it again.Everything about this cycle is about inflation,and being whipsawed out of inflation assets will likely do massive damage.

Putin doesn't need to save face.  It's not for us to judge his success.  That's for him against his objectives, which seem obvious to the grown ups.  There is a deal to be done, one that could have been done before or indeed avoided all together.  The risk is the "West" does not do it, which leads you to wondering why, which in turn leads you on to a lot more worrisome a place which is where people should be preparing to put their energies.  No-one seems to have learnt anything in the last two years (covid) and longer (financial malarkey).  People play the game put in front of them, not the real one in play, so nearly always lose.  This is not about who I support or not, this is about having a professional mindset about the financials (and more but that's not for here).  Both sides have gamed this and will get what they want.  We are the patsies.

[Castlevania]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Russian Military's radio station UVB-76, also known as "the buzzer", has been COMPLETELY HIJACKED!! UKRANIAN EUROVISION SONGS ARE PLAYING ON FREQUENCY!!!!

That reminds me of the documentary I watched years ago which argued the Eurovision Song Contest bought down the USSR.

[HousePriceMania]

Hang on, just checked on my bitcoin investments....

Have broken even, bought £0 stll have £0.

Fecking hell, lot to be said about getting away from the Internet for a week. 

Hedge against inflation my arse, scam. 

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I'll be buying tomorrow, the only question is, will i try and sell first. 

Makes no difference, selling ladders at the top or buying at bottom end are much the same thing.

[HousePriceMania]

If we invade France can we get out of the euro vision too? 

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Makes no difference, selling ladders at the top or buying at bottom end are much the same thing.

Depends where the top and bottom are. Us stock market could easily fall 80% at some point abs stay down for decades. You ain't laddering into that scenario 

[Hancock]

15 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Maybe so. I bought it for yield on the commodity heavy Russian economy, I don't expect most of the businesses in it to stop making money. Some in it will make even more money, the banks obviously not. I love buying distressed assets so I have no problem with that really. I'm more concerned about getting nationalised or otherwise kicked out at a stupid price. The companies in that fund mostly make dollars, not rubles. Let's see how many are prevented from making dollars first. And I think the Ruble might surprise people too when the real money comes in tomorrow and coming days. It's 40% backed by gold, effectively.

And I think peace will be reached. Putin is acting like a senile old man, and the Russians are well versed in stabbing their leader when no longer useful. Hopefully reached soon. Young men getting slaughtered because of stupid old men, same as always. I genuinely cannot wait for the Biden/Putin/Pelosi generation to just fuck off. They've had the easiest run in history, and generally just make everything worse.

Yes but just got to see Liz Truss today with her comment about supporting Brits going over there to fight the Russians, to see the next generation of politicians will be the same as the last. 

I bought £4k of JRS and £3k of the HSBC Russia ETF, according to the HL App i'm 10% up on the JRS so have set a price to see if i can get most my money back on that ... if not will just hold for a while, as this insanity has to end, as the US arent going to get involved, and Germany/France/UK are pathetic without the help of the US.

 

[Errol]

Please note:

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

There are two ways it looks likely to go wrong:

1.  Banks can make payments out of Swift but its not quick and its not easy, if EU cant keep up payments at best Russia will want money up front for energy, at worst physical transfers of "stuff" that will bypass swift completely.

2.  Russia has minimal debt and big surplus, that $200bn is currently greasing Eurodollar markets in Europe with ample liquidity.  Pull the plug on that and European banks suddenly find there is a gaping hole of a $200bn liquidity crisis.

Repo market anyone?  Wasn't that one reason cited for the plandemic?  It's as if they now want the financial system to "crash".  As they say, "new slide please".

[HousePriceMania]

BP doing an Abramovich? 

 

Chelsea trustees have not agreed to run club after Roman Abramovich move

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60549390

 

? 

 

 

[Plan-b]

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Depends where the top and bottom are. Us stock market could easily fall 80% at some point abs stay down for decades. You ain't laddering into that scenario 

True,but contrarians tend to start their buys in areas already down by a lot.I worked out my ladders during the Covid crash and it turned out when/if stocks were down 70% from highs i would be down around 15% before divs.As @Harley always warns ,falls dont concern me,but outright theft does.I have little exposure to Russia,BP the main one,but they have removed one of the best locations for hedging inflation away from everyone.Worse people who positioned there for it get slammed.Is this currency control on Russia,or on us ?.Is this all to ensure everyone falls into line of the green agenda?.

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Do you have a link for that? Looks handy 

Here you go .. https://www.investing.com/tools/market-hours

 

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Putin can demand payment in gold, bitcoin or tiddlywinks. It's a seller's market.

I don't get it and can only think @Cattle Prod might know.  I assume Germany and co need Russian hydrocarbons.  Is there anywhere else they can get enough?  Of course, what is 'enough" given they may use such a situation to further any domestic (globalist?) agenda via shortages?  If not, I assume they held out on the SWIFT stuff until a scheme was found to pay for the Russian stuff, which would have likely involved some agreement with the Russians as well as US.  But now they're going to supply weapons to those fighting the Russians?  Either there is an elaborate deal with the Russians and joe public are the patsies or they are locked and loaded on another agenda in which fuel shortages, etc play a key role, in which scenario joe public is again the patsy!  So a lot hinges on how they can source their hydrocarbons (and how much they are planning to need).