Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

27 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Is there a possibility that even the super-majors might be taken private?

That is a real big picture question. I don't think they would ever go de jure private, but instead become de facto uninvestable for the ordinary joe. Heavy buybacks to reduce the number of publicly traded shares would be the first step.

My thought would be that it would be akin to Berkshire Hathaway A shares, where the lack of stock-splits combined with rocketing value has resulted in a six figure price. That would keep the oiks from getting access, except through index or 60/40 type funds which would presumably be heavily diluted with ESG and green-bond rubbish.

[Boon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61523624

UBI incoming? Once started it'll be impossible to take away.

[Virgil Caine]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its the key moment of the cycle here in the UK.If the government put bennies up with inflation from September then the roadmap moves to even higher inflation and much higher risk of systemic collapse.However i see nothing yet to think they wont,no pushback,not one mention of the fact high bennies are one of the main problems.The left own the narrative at the moment due to the media etc.Employment wont collapse,but the margins will move and continue in one direction.Since Blair they had mass migration and monetising debt to mask it,now they dont.It could be the government is demonizing the BOE so that printing isnt available.My friends daughter and her boyfriend have 6 kids between them,he has just got a 4 bed house,she a 3,between them they get £3900 a month in bennies.She sublets her house of course and lives with him.My friend hates what she is doing,but like he says Browns bennies have corrupted them all.Funny enough he has retired at 52 and gone on sickness bennies,sick of working to pay bennies,even though his daughter takes a massive amount.

My guess is that one way or another they will gear it so inflation is used to chase working age people back into employment. One area that has not been touched so far is the education system but my guess is a higher education set up that excludes about 2 million plus  people from the labour force until the age of 21 or more is not going to be sustainable. Moving people as well as money from unproductive to productive activities is key to any redistribution cycle.

[Axeman123]

Warehouse space could be about to become very over supplied! Will any be converted to residential I wonder?

A real sign of the times.

[feed]

I think you give the global elite (I've always hated that term as it lends some credibility to what is largely just inherited wealth) too much credit.  

The last 40 years they've got almost everything wrong.  From the fall of the Soviet Union, to the dot come boom and bust, the GFC, this and countless others.  The only consistent action i can see is against the fear of real deflation.

The Eugenicists, Malthusians, old EU money craving the good old days of feudalism, the techno fetishists and their AI singularity, all exist, but there is no coherent plan.  They lurch from crisis to crisis, using each as an opportunity to increase their power and influence.  To increase authoritarianism and control, but kicking the problems down the road. 

6 months ago we were on the verge of a global government, forced injections and digital id and social credits.  And now they're back to laundering money through an old fashioned kinetic conflict.  One that might see the end of the US hegemony and a return to a bi (multi) polar state.  Sanctions on Russia reserves killed any chance of a global CBDC. But they just can't help themselves. 

Climate change as a tool to beat up the plebs, sure.  But it's doesn't mean they don't believe it themselves..  They're mostly exceptionalists, they believe their own bullshit, by virtue if they have said it, it must be true or it must be possble. 

And as for knowing fossil fuels are done.  The Biden administration is jetting around the world, cajoling and begging the marginal producers to increase supply.  Even the likes of David Hunter still thinks, print and it (energy) will come.

 

 

 

[Axeman123]

Another anecdotal about the fall of Amazon:

In the past falling retail sales or high-street footfall could always be hand-waved as being signs of the switch to online shopping. If Amazon is struggling it looks like a real hard rain will fall soon...

[wherebee]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Warehouse space could be about to become very over supplied! Will any be converted to residential I wonder?

 

Excellent news for the prepping DOSBODDER.  3 acres of beans and rice.

[feed]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

It's also because the financial services industry obfuscates and perpetuates the myth of complexity.

They don't need too.  Numeracy in the UK is pitiful 

[Bricormortis]

i recieve a small pension relating to my employment in Royal Mail from 1980 to 1988. To the best of my knoweledge this was increased by inflation each year. 

I am looking at the increase for this year coming whereby they have sent very minimal information but mentioned that  (around 70 % of ) my pension is subject to Guaranteed Minimum Pension rules and will therefor NOT be inflation linked and get zero uplift. The rest of my pension gets 3.1 % uplift. Which is worth 38 pence a week extra. Hmmph.

It was never a massive amount as we never earned much in the 80's, but for a lot of older posties retired and counting on their pension being adjusted, well a chunk of it is going to wither on the vine, . It never mentioned that in the glossy pension booklet they gave out when we joined. In fact im surprised its that easy to take pensions off people like that. Would have thought there would be some legal challenge.

Is this the future for the PS pension liabilities ?

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61523624

UBI incoming? Once started it'll be impossible to take away.

" For the poorest members of society " thats the bit that gets my goat. Make everybody else pay the bill.

[Barnsey]

57 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Another anecdotal about the fall of Amazon:

In the past falling retail sales or high-street footfall could always be hand-waved as being signs of the switch to online shopping. If Amazon is struggling it looks like a real hard rain will fall soon...

Same for the deliveroo/uber eats crowd too, other half tends to cave in and order something from one of them once a week as works from home, deliveries arriving so much faster than a couple months ago. So we're seeing the collapse of discretionary spend, does that alone get our unemployment rate back up to the 5% range without having to significantly raise rates?

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61523624

UBI incoming? Once started it'll be impossible to take away.

It will have to be for everyone. No means testing  - so universal.

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61523624

UBI incoming? Once started it'll be impossible to take away.

I can't see how UBI can work if the currency becomes worthless.

I'm no financial expert but I just can't see how it can work. 

[feed]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61523624

UBI incoming? Once started it'll be impossible to take away.

When the only tool you have is a printer. 

[wherebee]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I can't see how UBI can work if the currency becomes worthless.

I'm no financial expert but I just can't see how it can work. 

company stores.  or, in this case, state backed stores, like in the USSR.  Everyone will have the right to a loaf of bread every day, and UBI credits for that loaf.

Only problem is, as the USSR found out.... people don't make the bread fast enough or good enough if there is no profit.

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

company stores.  or, in this case, state backed stores, like in the USSR.  Everyone will have the right to a loaf of bread every day, and UBI credits for that loaf.

Only problem is, as the USSR found out.... people don't make the bread fast enough or good enough if there is no profit.

It is sad that despite it's 100% failure rate people still believe Communism is a viable system.

[Bricormortis]

If you work in a low wage job not paying much tax, and plenty do, proposed tax cuts will do nothing for you, and you  will earn too much to get the bennie uplifts. No one gives a crap about low wage earners though.

[Option5]

6 minutes ago, wherebee said:

company stores

You're Tennessee Ernie Ford and I claim my £5.

[Option5]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

It is sad that despite it's 100% failure rate people still believe Communism is a viable system.

Because they know they can do it better.

Because they know they're smarter and better than anyone else.

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Because they know they can do it better.

Because they know they're smarter and better than anyone else.

They are like degenerate gamblers you see in the Bookies who think that they will eventually come up with a system that works.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

" For the poorest members of society " thats the bit that gets my goat. Make everybody else pay the bill.

They cannot accurately target the poorest in any case. They can give to those on benefits but many of those are in the middle. Low wage workers without children under 18 are the poorest in society. Exceptions apply as always - something they cannot cater for.

Any attempt to subsidise food and energy destroys price signals for those affected. As well as impoverishing those who do not receive the boost. Removing price signals increases demand and therefore overall prices. Knock on effects for poorer nations are hunger, cold or excessive heat and death. Completely immoral for a global organisation to suggest this.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its the key moment of the cycle here in the UK.If the government put bennies up with inflation from September then the roadmap moves to even higher inflation and much higher risk of systemic collapse.However i see nothing yet to think they wont,no pushback,not one mention of the fact high bennies are one of the main problems.The left own the narrative at the moment due to the media etc.Employment wont collapse,but the margins will move and continue in one direction.Since Blair they had mass migration and monetising debt to mask it,now they dont.It could be the government is demonizing the BOE so that printing isnt available.My friends daughter and her boyfriend have 6 kids between them,he has just got a 4 bed house,she a 3,between them they get £3900 a month in bennies.She sublets her house of course and lives with him.My friend hates what she is doing,but like he says Browns bennies have corrupted them all.Funny enough he has retired at 52 and gone on sickness bennies,sick of working to pay bennies,even though his daughter takes a massive amount.

I don’t disagree. Indeed I would encourage reporting of subletting if it is stealing my taxes. 

But at what stage do you stop referring to a specific previous government? The last three governments since must have some accountability to those who have been in power since or do you think Browns influence was as is so massive that no one was able to can change it?

Whenever Brown/Blair are specifically named it sounds like is an apology for the current governments since ie the last 12 years their hands were tied. If it’s always the other guys fault what’s the point of changing the leader. 

Biden now blaming Trump.…Trump blames Obama…..he blames Bush.

So I am not pro Brown but rather think for the past 30 years we have a mush of liberalism and political self interest. I wouldn’t pin my mast on anyone’s colours nor specifically blame a person because it alleviates some blame from others. They are all shite and corrupt. 

My bet is benefits go up with inflation and ‘people’ blame Blair/Brown/Putin/Biden/Thatcher/Simon Cowell….oh, I hope I am wrong. 

 

[Virgil Caine]

11 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

They cannot accurately target the poorest in any case. They can give to those on benefits but many of those are in the middle. Low wage workers without children under 18 are the poorest in society. Exceptions apply as always - something they cannot cater for.

Any attempt to subsidise food and energy destroys price signals for those affected. As well as impoverishing those who do not receive the boost. Removing price signals increases demand and therefore overall prices. Knock on effects for poorer nations are hunger, cold or excessive heat and death. Completely immoral for a global organisation to suggest this.

All subsidies in whatever form distort markets as U.K. house prices confirm. Given the poor in Western nations have generally higher benefits then they will simply outbid the poor elsewhere on the planet for food and energy.  If they want equality of outcome they will need to impose rationing on a global scale. I can’t see that happening. 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

It will have to be for everyone. No means testing  - so universal.

Exactly.

My typical rant: do billionaires get it? If not, its not universal.

Do disabled people get the same as a normal person?

Do you get the same amount in a small mining village as you would in central London, even for housing? If not its not basic.

If they retort "but you get housing, so its the same wherever you are". In that case, can I get a free house in the poshest part of London? Its therefore not universal or basic if they will spend £300/m in one place but £1300/m in another.

Would you get the same allocation for heating in the south east as the chilliest part of Wales or Scotland?

The only correct word in UBI is income.

Its just a fancy name for "more means tested benefits doled out by the government"

[Virgil Caine]

12 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I don’t disagree. Indeed I would encourage reporting of subletting if it is stealing my taxes. 

But at what stage do you stop referring to a specific previous government? The last three governments since must have some accountability to those who have been in power since or do you think Browns influence was as is so massive that no one was able to can change it?

Whenever Brown/Blair are specifically named it sounds like is an apology for the current governments since ie the last 12 years their hands were tied. If it’s always the other guys fault what’s the point of changing the leader. 

Biden now blaming Trump.…Trump blames Obama…..he blames Bush.

So I am not pro Brown but rather think for the past 30 years we have a mush of liberalism and political self interest. I wouldn’t pin my mast on anyone’s colours nor specifically blame a person because it alleviates some blame from others. They are all shite and corrupt. 

My bet is benefits go up with inflation and ‘people’ blame Blair/Brown/Putin/Biden/Thatcher/Simon Cowell….oh, I hope I am wrong. 

 

I would generally agree but I still feel that Blair/Brown were dealt a better hand when they came to power than most of the subsequent administrations.  All of the governments since the mid 1990s have essentially followed Blairite policies in some form as that is what has won elections. Given winning their seat or getting into government is the ONLY thing politicians really care about I don’t think it will change until that magic trick no longer works.