Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[CannonFodder]

 

Another angle

 

 

[Castlevania]

28 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Er..

 

 

The Dutch police are thugs in uniform. 

[WICAO]

5 hours ago, afly said:

Fuck me Dishy and Sajid have resigned saying Bojo is incompetent

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/05/boris-johnson-accused-not-telling-truth-chris-pincher-politics-live

Meanwhile Rome burns...

[Castlevania]

Who’s Penny Mordaunt? She’s apparently the favourite to replace Boris.

[The Grey Man]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

Meanwhile Rome burns...

And whilst it does there are plenty of..look...look over there distractions

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

They're going to look under a lot of stones for the next Tory leader and then pick an utter cunt that'll make that lockdown loon Starmer electable.

Just my views,dyor.

Can't stand the lot of them.I'd vote for the Dutch Farmers party right here and now.

You and me both 

[WICAO]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id last a day,iv put my hand up many a clout in a club im afraid,plue one i de-flowered and then ended it with is in the SNP and i wouldnt want my family hearing it all on the BBC.Not the shagging and dumping her,but the fact i paid for a posh meal and poth hotel.Ruin my frugal reputation.

Politics following the macro as usual.Dishi knows we face systemic collapse if Boris stays with his policies.Boris is finished,but he should really resign tonight.Yes Dishi is getting out before the collapse,but to be fair to him he might save us from that fate if/when it removes Bojo.

I must say though,what a waste of a landslide election win.Boris has been shocking.

Had enough of a majority to actually start to right the ship and squandered it.

[CannonFodder]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Who’s Penny Mordaunt? She’s apparently the favourite to replace Boris.

She's the minister thats getting us all these excellent post brexit trade deals.

Prior to that she neogiated the excellent EU withdrawl deal inc NI protocol and prior to that was the minister for women and diversity

Just up this forum's street i would imagine as first choice of PM

[Bus Stop Boxer]

6 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The brutal sell-offs just reinforce my view we are in a big PM bullmarket

Could you have a word with PHAG then please. I'd also like a word with Rick Fucking Rule and his German helmet collection.

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

She's the minister thats getting us all these excellent post brexit trade deals.

Prior to that she neogiated the excellent EU withdrawl deal inc NI protocol and prior to that was the minister for women and diversity

Just up this forum's street i would imagine as first choice of PM

Even so....she's a sub 4 pinter.....

[Bus Stop Boxer]

57 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Er..

 

 

The dutch filth shot at cov protestors last year too.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

52 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Another angle

 

 

Would love to those fuckers flattened. Choose your side you bastards. Rutte really is a cunt. Right up there.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

 

[Loki]

 

[wherebee]

13 hours ago, wherebee said:

I did some rescue work in Victoria in 09.  An area the size of Germany flooded.  One town I went in was 25km from the nearest water normally and flooded a meter deep. Australia has always been a land of fire and flood.  Is it getting worse?

hundreds of thousands of houses have been built on flood plains due to bent contractors and councils (although some councils fought this, developers could appeal to the state and often won).  hundreds of thousands of yards have been concreted over and drives too.  When it rains in Oz, it rains big - think inches in hours.  The more you build in shit locations, the more flooding gets worse due to runoff.  Also, green activists convinced state gvts no more rainfall.  So no dams were built, and existing ones not expanded.

I suspect it's a combination of building in shit places, the maunder minimum bringing ten years of cooler, wetter weather to Australia, and the media/gvt wanting to push the climate change message.

 

One of the comments in the Australian today sums up the impact of the climate change charlatans well:

"for Professor Tim Flannery, Head of the Climate Council, who`s Scientific discipline is Paleontologist - Who in 2005/7 stated that:-

 "Cities like Brisbane and Sydney where likely to run out of water very quickly, even the rain that falls is unlikely to fill the Dams and rivers, creeks will not run." Herald Sun.

  "that on one morning, in the not to distant future in one of our major cities, taps will be turned on, and instead of water there will only be a whistling in the pipes, not a drop of water."  Herald Sun.

 "Drought conditions will become permanent in Eastern Australia"  The Australian.

 "Sea levels could rise 20m through Ice caps melting" Sky."
 

[WICAO]

21 hours ago, WICAO said:

Reserve Bank of Australia just raised 0.5%.  Official rate now 1.35% with inflation at 5.1%.

So far behind the curve it's not funny...

So rates up yesterday and today the banks have started announcing mortgage rate increases so they're not messing around.  Commonwealth Bank (CBA), one of the big banks here, passing on the full 0.5%.  Standard variable interest rate becomes 5.8%.  The rate for "investors" (read BTL landlord) will be 6.38%.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-06/cba-passes-on-rba-rate-hike-to-mortgage-borrowers-savers/101210412

Positively, it also looks like they're passing on the 0.5% to some savers as well although savings rates from CBA still ridiculously low.

[jamtomorrow]

Just caught up with Dr. Tim's latest.

Let's suppose he's right about the coming sterling crisis ... what are the implications for the UK? And I mean practically speaking, once we've gotten past all the "UK is screwed" hot takes - how does it play out?

Situation is very different from the last time we went to IMF - then: 4% balance of payments defecit and North Sea oil about to ride to the rescue. Now: 8%, no oil.

Also a huge political incentive to put off the inevitable for as long as possible - "cap in hand to the IMF" still resonates powerfully in the national memory, even now.

What I'm wondering ... might we see partial currency substitution, similar to how households hoard USD in some South American countries when the national currency executes a swan dive?

[Pip321]

I found the resignation letters and acceptance letters fascinating. They read like a public CV. Paragraphs of “I achieved this, we did this etc” followed by “ps I resign”🤦🏻‍♂️

I see the markets are up first thing….maybe if everyone resigns including Boris then the FTSE will surge to 8000 😆 

I appreciate I am tempting fate saying the market is up….Indeed over the past 3 months I have improved my knowledge around geopolitics, macro economics, micro economics, stock picking, currency markets, current deficits, PM price manipulation, interest rate mechanisms, general budgeting tips and many many other things.

As a result of that wealth of new knowledge plus almost 40 years of financial studies I have come up with a strategy….unerringly similar to many on this thread.

My action: dig a cellar under my house and fill it with bake beans and a baseball bat. Sorted.😉

 

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Just caught up with Dr. Tim's latest.

Let's suppose he's right about the coming sterling crisis ... what are the implications for the UK? And I mean practically speaking, once we've gotten past all the "UK is screwed" hot takes - how does it play out?

Situation is very different from the last time we went to IMF - then: 4% balance of payments defecit and North Sea oil about to ride to the rescue. Now: 8%, no oil.

Also a huge political incentive to put off the inevitable for as long as possible - "cap in hand to the IMF" still resonates powerfully in the national memory, even now.

What I'm wondering ... might we see partial currency substitution, similar to how households hoard USD in some South American countries when the national currency executes a swan dive?

When sterling was too high for the situation the north got hollowed out due to its industries,when sterling is too low for the situation the south will get hollowed out due to its industries.The north cant fund the south so government gets hollowed out as well.Production operator welcome aboard,pen pusher type the job centre is down there.

[DoINeedOne]

Needed to switch off last night so went to watch the new Top Gun film (it's good) 

So the rats are leaving the ship, there's no-one to really vote for they are all useless cunts, well no they're not actually seeing as most seem to be multimillionaires they just have there own interests at heart

Just like everyone here should, The worry is we are just becoming more and more divided fighting each other and it seems to be a revolving door of just going around in circles 

 

Just a rant 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I found the resignation letters and acceptance letters fascinating. They read like a public CV. Paragraphs of “I achieved this, we did this etc” followed by “ps I resign”🤦🏻‍♂️

I see the markets are up first thing….maybe if everyone resigns including Boris then the FTSE will surge to 8000 😆 

I appreciate I am tempting fate saying the market is up….Indeed over the past 3 months I have improved my knowledge around geopolitics, macro economics, micro economics, stock picking, currency markets, current deficits, PM price manipulation, interest rate mechanisms, general budgeting tips and many many other things.

As a result of that wealth of new knowledge plus almost 40 years of financial studies I have come up with a strategy….unerringly similar to many on this thread.

My action: dig a cellar under my house and fill it with bake beans and a baseball bat. Sorted.😉

 

I find a baseball bat gives too much time for someone to get inside the swing to you.Ok against some,but not ideal.A hardwood fishing priest does much better.I have one very similar to this below.It can be used to strangle over a neck,pushed into kidneys or groin if on the floor,eyes etc as well as heavy hits to the temples.I replaced the string with tent guide guy rope and it means dropping or having it pulled away is very hard.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/254991070139?hash=item3b5ea6f3bb:g:580AAOSwpeVgq81D&amdata=enc%3AAQAHAAAA4OwXQ11TrXJqSmW1bzDhW5lKvbd%2BZSOG0fDRMe8Wh0ZDu5qiXgnxErk7fbYtnk7fs2Z4MnCNkrTpkXbSpcuOqcV7J31lGgJc8MX5WZuAhSISdDuvz%2BK3dbFbGOlNaOUWjGwHNhgU3uBo6Vn68fhjJWMNeRakyjMAedgrpgo4fyky6NJvosCDuZnMWKJLFigyWbR6Udlfp8%2BMYhIhnaFTAfSLmi9jdeIXnkFMVZhtIhDUr9Hhjhf3apubHutbQRAbMJT8b2QUJ3%2FfT9tuikH8U%2FSAdH5tmJV8a2sKqqdWVodB|tkp%3ABFBM7ILhprpg

[ThoughtCriminal]

Seems to be a consensus building amongst financial "experts" that inflation is going to plunge over the next 12 months.

 

Where do you have it on the roadmap @DurhamBorn?

[ThoughtCriminal]

That's an astonishing statistic.

[Lightscribe]

29 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Seems to be a consensus building amongst financial "experts" that inflation is going to plunge over the next 12 months.

 

Where do you have it on the roadmap @DurhamBorn?

Since when were the ‘experts’ right?

My opinion bullwhip effect. Demand evaporates for everything but essentials.

In return production reduces but inflation remains high due to costs and labour prices.  (Stagflation). Energy costs and ridiculous restrictions on farmers (aka Dutch) will ensure inflation remains in an inflationary spiral.

Who’s going to be paying £9.25 for branded butter even with bennie and state pension uplifts?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lurpak-butter-iceland-sainsbury-inflation-b2115864.html?amp

[BadAlchemy]

Quite a bounce back in UK listed stocks this morning. RIO, BT, RMG, ABDN....etc

The market believes it actually makes a difference who is driving the bus off the cliff!?