Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[M S E Refugee]

54 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Hes a little bit country, a little bit rock n roll that fella.

I heard his Delingpod interview the other day. He sounded like he was days away from digging his own trench outside his house.

I used to think he was way out there with his Reset thesis but he has pretty much nailed it.

[Lightly Toasted]

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Agreed.

Was pleased to see his interview was out first on the BBC this morning. 

He may be an outsider in terms of popular culture, but if his launch of 'The Conservative Way' next week is borne of internal party support then the party could gather round and put him in.

I have been turned, however, into a sceptical guy. My entire political exposure in my adult life has been 100% mouth 0% trousers.

If he can't do it, whether installed this time or next, then we are truly fucked.

I was impressed by his performance in the Brexit debates/committees, less impressed by his take on white privilege:

 

https://www.stevebaker.info/2020/06/black-lives-matter/

... It is clear the Conservative Party needs to move beyond our proud record of establishing the most ethnically diverse government ever, to becoming more proactively anti-racist in what we say...

... George Floyd may have died at the hands of the police far away in another jurisdiction, in a country with a worse record of race relations than our own but we have seen nevertheless the need for a change of heart here at home...

 

If he'd called out the rubber*-meets-the-vagina racism suffered by countless white girls thrown to ethnic wolves for the sake of diversity, I could believe that he was (a) thinking critically about the information he'd received** (b) genuinely interested in fighting all racism and (c) brave enough to speak his principles. Or if that would have been too stupid/brave for him, he could have just kept quiet about the whole thing. For me, his response was a bit of a feet-of-clay moment.

Still probably better than any of the alternatives!

* I doubt the grooming gangs bothered with rubbers
** I recall reading that Steve Baker been on a diversity course before the above pronouncements on racism and privilege.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Gold has fallen dramatically in price in July. Any idea why.

At the risk of being proven horribly wrong, that is historically how it ends consolidations during a bull market.

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, JMD said:

Hmm, he got paid 300k/year for his weekly column for the Telegraph, which he boasted took only an hour to write.

At least he blew it on Carrie rather than coke n hookers.

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Gold has fallen dramatically in price in July. Any idea why.

It's down 4% in the paper market.From what's been said,physical hasn't really moved.

AS I've bored on before,only three other times since the Sept 18 low in gold that GDXJ has been this much lower than gold ona %age perfornamce basis on the monhtlies

Commercials gently cutting net short psotions down

https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders

Obviously heavy dose of dyor and decl: we're long a lot of PM mienrs.

Tiem will tel if histroy repeats.

May 2019& Mar 20 & now

here's may to August 19

GDXJ nearly doubled Mar to JUl 20

 

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

I was impressed by his performance in the Brexit debates/committees, less impressed by his take on white privilege:

 

https://www.stevebaker.info/2020/06/black-lives-matter/

... It is clear the Conservative Party needs to move beyond our proud record of establishing the most ethnically diverse government ever, to becoming more proactively anti-racist in what we say...

... George Floyd may have died at the hands of the police far away in another jurisdiction, in a country with a worse record of race relations than our own but we have seen nevertheless the need for a change of heart here at home...

 

If he'd called out the rubber*-meets-the-vagina racism suffered by countless white girls thrown to ethnic wolves for the sake of diversity, I could believe that he was (a) thinking critically about the information he'd received** (b) genuinely interested in fighting all racism and (c) brave enough to speak his principles. Or if that would have been too stupid/brave for him, he could have just kept quiet about the whole thing. For me, his response was a bit of a feet-of-clay moment.

Still probably better than any of the alternatives!

* I doubt the grooming gangs bothered with rubbers
** I recall reading that Steve Baker been on a diversity course before the above pronouncements on racism and privilege.

Respectfully, this issue is being blown up massively. I'm tired of having the feeling that every minority issue should be a majority problem.

I and millions of other people in this country practice not being 'whateverist' every day without thinking about it.

For me, the gall of people in media or otherwise shoving their medicine down my throat for which I suffer no ailment turns me off. But I still go about my day respectfully of other people's choices and ways of being.

I don't need anyone to tell me this. Equally, the TV could be wall-to-wall telling people not to do X, Y or Z and there'd still be the same minority doing it.

I'm not interested in listening to it and don't want a government distracted by it.

[HousePriceMania]

@sancho panza "It's down 4% in the paper market".  Paper gold, always makes me chuckle.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv had a nibble on Steve Baker for next PM at 20s .I think he is the best option if we are to face the systemic problems,though he is an outsider.

He would be best used to build a base of support for a coherent ideology, then pledge support to a stronger candidate in exchange for their adopting it (and likely promising key ministerial positions behind closed doors).

34 minutes ago, Gin said:

A former RAF engineer .

I always thought a good engineer would make a good chancellor of exchequer . A person who really knows how to get from A to Z in a methodical way and a way that works .

Further to the above: Chancellor would be the ideal position for an ERG kingmaker, total control of the purse strings and all the generation of reports that are used to economically justify policy.

[Ash4781b]

Infer by what is happening on the political scene the economic numbers out there might be dreadful. Boris hasn’t given a lot of fixing time tbh. Oh well summer holidays. It will be ok won’t it when they come back in Autumn? Energy supplies secured? 

[sancho panza]

 

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

I think that's the cue for Yellow alert, still not bad enough yet for Red alert (or Brown alert for this cycle).  Few more months.

Got 40kg of basmati for £20 just in case, couple of months food is going to be key with energy/fertiliser prices that are going to make winter interesting.

Yeah I think it's time to harbour some tins.COuld be a tought winter.For me big kahuna includes breaking of the credit wave in the banks and debt deflation.

Funily enough MP,Mrs P has always mocked my hoarding of tins and water filters and then two nights back we had a power cut and she was worreid about dinner getting cooekd for the kids.No rpoblems says I,wood out of the garage,Barby sparked and food cooked outside.All of a sudden I'm not such a loon....:-)

 

 

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv had a nibble on Steve Baker for next PM at 20s .I think he is the best option if we are to face the systemic problems,though he is an outsider.

Iv also bought a few more Ashmore this morning.

 

Steve baker would be my pick of a very bad bunch.I like the cut of his jib and he's the most libertarian leaning of the tories in parliemnt but he' s surrounded by blood suckers and blood suckers generally pick blood suckers to dish out the goodies.

Must say the US has some promising talent coming through eg ron de santis but for me this  is the sort of leader we need

 

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Infer by what is happening on the political scene the economic numbers out there might be dreadful. Boris hasn’t given a lot of fixing time tbh. Oh well summer holidays. It will be ok won’t it when they come back in Autumn? Energy supplies secured? 

I think Rishi and Javid took the first lfieboats they could,find a reason and resign.Sh1t's about to get real methinks.

Boris will get the blame for what's coming and he'll go into the old folks home swearing he's the reincarnation of Churchill and that he won the war against covid.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Infer by what is happening on the political scene the economic numbers out there might be dreadful. Boris hasn’t given a lot of fixing time tbh. Oh well summer holidays. It will be ok won’t it when they come back in Autumn? Energy supplies secured? 

Possibly. You may be able to tell further by who puts their name forward for leader. If things are awful, even worse than generally realised, it isn't a job many would want.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

At least he blew it on Carrie rather than coke n hookers.

It's down 4% in the paper market.From what's been said,physical hasn't really moved.

AS I've bored on before,only three other times since the Sept 18 low in gold that GDXJ has been this much lower than gold ona %age perfornamce basis on the monhtlies

Commercials gently cutting net short psotions down

https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders

Obviously heavy dose of dyor and decl: we're long a lot of PM mienrs.

Tiem will tel if histroy repeats.

May 2019& Mar 20 & now

here's may to August 19

GDXJ nearly doubled Mar to JUl 20

 

Sovs on Baird always move with spot price. I hear this line trotted out and Bairds Sov prices always prove its a very questionable theory.

There was a little delay in delivery for Sovs and Brits on Bairds about a year back, but for the rest of the time through this whole shebang, they have just gone up and down with spot.

 

[stoobs]

From the Beeeeb:

Quote

Karen in Scarborough says she's "tearful" after hearing of Boris Johnson's plan to resign.

"It reminds me of the Lion King with the hyenas circling," she says.

Fuck me.

[sancho panza]

36 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Sovs on Baird always move with spot price. I hear this line trotted out and Bairds Sov prices always prove its a very questionable theory.

There was a little delay in delivery for Sovs and Brits on Bairds about a year back, but for the rest of the time through this whole shebang, they have just gone up and down with spot.

 

I don't buy physical frequently enough to know liek you.But looking at bullionbypost,currently one ounce gold bar is circa £1527 which equates to $1826 on the forex sans bid offer.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-bars/1-ounce-gold-bar/

Is that the sort of mark up you normally pay on a bar if spot is $1738?

 

Also @M S E Refugee and any other of our regular physcil PM buyers @Lightscribe?

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I don't buy physical frequently enough to know liek you.But looking at bullionbypost,currently one ounce gold bar is circa £1527 which equates to $1826 on the forex sans bid offer.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-bars/1-ounce-gold-bar/

Is that the sort of mark up you normally pay on a bar if spot is $1738?

 

I dont buy often, i last bought in 2010 and after the Cyprus bail in (when prices promptly cratered)

But i check Baird almost daily.

But only Sovs. And when spot drops, so does a Sov. If its not as much as spot then it must be very close.

My mate owns and runs a semi pawn broker shop, and he is doing brisk trade in gold trinkets of all descriptions. So demand for physical is untainted, come what may, but its not quite accurate imho to say that the physical prices are outstripping spot on any given day. It was hard to get hold of Silver Britts when the whole Gamestop shite was going down back in Jan and thats really the only time physical was unobtainable for a bit. Even then i dont think Sovs were hard to get hold of.

There's a lot of shite spouted on YT etc re PMs. A lot.

Rick Fucking Rule has lost me about £2k in silver miners in a year for starters.

My main reason for not buying more physical is the exit strategy / trade-ability and the possibility of huge taxes or confiscation.

"Its what Putin uses" etc etc

 

Ramble mode: OFF.

[Gin]

My Bro lives in Sydney , Australia with his head in the sand .

The other day I told him at the very least get a wind up torch and an alternative energy source even if small , along with stocking some dry goods .

His reply was maybe but didn`t think stocking food is necessary and sound s a bit dramatic .

 

Today out of the blue he mailed me a few words :

Hi xxx

Our food prices have gone through the roof eg cabbage normally selling at $3 is $10. Instead of spending about $55 on vegetables and fruit, it was $85. What's it like in the UK?

 

His wife also had a dream about food shortages .

[baffledbyzirp]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Possibly. You may be able to tell further by who puts their name forward for leader. If things are awful, even worse than generally realised, it isn't a job many would want.

Ludwig von Mises said, "he who is unfit to serve his fellow citizens wants to rule them." Who would want to be Tory leader or PM given the state of the country and the world? I have no doubt that we shall see a beauty parade of the rapacious, self-interested, narcissistic, ambitious, psychopathic and unscrupulous.  

With limited time to sort out the imbroglio Boris leaves in his wake, the current account deficit at record levels, debt soaring, the costs of servicing debt increasing and a public grown fat at the public teat, how could anybody make a decent first of it?

What we need, fiscal discipline and austerity, we don't want. What we want, government handouts and endless leisure, is self-destructive and beyond our means. Democracy is on the verge of eating itself.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Old faithful never disappoints.

 

Armageddon could be declared imminent and UK housing would still go up.

[M S E Refugee]

45 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I don't buy physical frequently enough to know liek you.But looking at bullionbypost,currently one ounce gold bar is circa £1527 which equates to $1826 on the forex sans bid offer.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-bars/1-ounce-gold-bar/

Is that the sort of mark up you normally pay on a bar if spot is $1738?

 

Also @M S E Refugee and any other of our regular physcil PM buyers @Lightscribe?

 

I usually use Atkinson's Bullion or Hatton Garden Metals.

Bullionbypost are usually the most expensive.

Chards and Tavex get positive mentions on the Silver Forum.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Old faithful never disappoints.

 

Armageddon could be declared imminent and UK housing would still go up.

The unit of accounting depreciated.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Ludwig von Mises said, "he who is unfit to serve his fellow citizens wants to rule them." Who would want to be Tory leader or PM given the state of the country and the world? I have no doubt that we shall see a beauty parade of the rapacious, self-interested, narcissistic, ambitious, psychopathic and unscrupulous.  

With limited time to sort out the imbroglio Boris leaves in his wake, the current account deficit at record levels, debt soaring, the costs of servicing debt increasing and a public grown fat at the public teat, how could anybody make a decent first of it?

What we need, fiscal discipline and austerity, we don't want. What we want, government handouts and endless leisure, is self-destructive and beyond our means. Democracy is on the verge of eating itself.

Spot on.

 

It's a poisoned chalice now.

 

Look at those Tory benches and tell me who would have the balls to do whats necessary.

 

Put a gun to my head and I'd say Redwood, Rees Mogg and Baker.

 

None of whom has a chance because they're not wanky media whores.

[afly]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Spot on.

 

It's a poisoned chalice now.

 

Look at those Tory benches and tell me who would have the balls to do whats necessary.

 

Put a gun to my head and I'd say Redwood, Rees Mogg and Baker.

 

None of whom has a chance because they're not wanky media whores.

We're fucked

 

[Starsend]

43 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I dont buy often, i last bought in 2010 and after the Cyprus bail in (when prices promptly cratered)

But i check Baird almost daily.

But only Sovs. And when spot drops, so does a Sov. If its not as much as spot then it must be very close.

My mate owns and runs a semi pawn broker shop, and he is doing brisk trade in gold trinkets of all descriptions. So demand for physical is untainted, come what may, but its not quite accurate imho to say that the physical prices are outstripping spot on any given day. It was hard to get hold of Silver Britts when the whole Gamestop shite was going down back in Jan and thats really the only time physical was unobtainable for a bit. Even then i dont think Sovs were hard to get hold of.

There's a lot of shite spouted on YT etc re PMs. A lot.

Rick Fucking Rule has lost me about £2k in silver miners in a year for starters.

My main reason for not buying more physical is the exit strategy / trade-ability and the possibility of huge taxes or confiscation.

"Its what Putin uses" etc etc

 

Ramble mode: OFF.

That's exactly the reason I don't buy a lot more physical - fear that when it really starts to shine and come into its own (which it sure as hell will), the parasites steal it. Have to say though that I don't care if they introduce a prison sentence of ten years, I will not hand over mine out of principle.

All I want to do is bloody retire and maintain the pot I've built in real terms - that would be sufficient be for me, could manage with no real growth at all. This is extraordinarily hard to do given the state of the Western world, a monetary system on the brink of collapse and thieves running the show. Reckon those of us in our fifties must have drawn the short straw, fucking crap time to be close to retirement.

I'll shall refer to Rick Rule as RFR from this moment onwards 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I don't buy physical frequently enough to know liek you.But looking at bullionbypost,currently one ounce gold bar is circa £1527 which equates to $1826 on the forex sans bid offer.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-bars/1-ounce-gold-bar/

Is that the sort of mark up you normally pay on a bar if spot is $1738?

 

Also @M S E Refugee and any other of our regular physcil PM buyers @Lightscribe?

 

5% seems fair. For Britannia’s due to being CGT exempt the premium is usually slightly higher (6-8%) from my experience.

[Pip321]

On 06/07/2022 at 15:06, JMD said:

Similar result for me, plus my M&G looks to be about to do the same chart trajectory. I still want to buy more across the sector but looks too early at present to go deeper into any of them.                                                                                                            And on that note of when to buy, and also in terms of general buying strategies...    I know laddering-down is often mentioned on the thread, but does anyone here ladder-up? I'm thinking the momentum in the market - bear or bull - should crucially instruct which 'directional ladder' method you employ?

I have been thinking about this and I have laddered up when I think there is a new ‘trading range’. However in this environment if anything I have been doing the opposite ie lowering my ladders and even having sell prices if prices rise rapidly and I am back in the black on something I think has further to fall.

I have made a couple of calls too early and now will probably sell if we have a flurry of activity upward eg a couple of good days…it’s not that I think the long term decision was wrong but now I see the possibility of new lows.

But this is very much ‘trading’ rather than my long term plan. Ie I might now believe I can get the particular stocks I want at even lower prices over the next few months