Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, feed said:

Clock is ticking. 

Berlin should negotiate gas with Russia to secure supply - official

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Berlin-should-negotiate-gas-with-Russia-to-secure-supply-official/58469233

Bundestag Chairman of the Committee on Climate Protection and Energy Klaus Ernst (pictured) underscored on Friday that it is "wise" for Germany to negotiate with Russia to secure the country's gas supply which would effectively lower the prices.

"Leading politicians in the ruling parties also join my position," stressed Ernst on his Twitter account, adding that such a shift toward Berlin-Moscow dialogue would also enable the nation to avoid the effects of its own sanctions against Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier said that the federal government plans to temporarily lower the sales tax on gas to 7% for its consumers, while the country prepares to connect liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuettel to the gas network.

Typical.  Germany always says no....until it doesn't!  It mistakes stubborness for toughness and to the tough it's a crap negotiating stance.  You just switch off and wait.  Not that many are tough though so it often works. 

Caveat:  I respect Germany a lot, especially when there and seeing things in context.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Don't know if this has been posted but seems quite clear which way the BRICS nations are heading

 

 

[sancho panza]

More Ukraine surrender prepping.Certainly seems the narrative is altering.

With winter approaching and Truss facing some serious voter anger ref cost of living crisis,sending moeny to the Ukraine doesn't play well when some people are struggling to pay fuel/food bills.

Call me callous,but a peace deal in the Ukraine could provide decent back drop for DH style melt up.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/18/no-new-military-pledges-ukraine-july-begs-question-has-west/

Military support for Ukraine appears to be drying up after research revealed that major European governments failed to make a single new pledge to send weapons to Kyiv last month.

Since Russia’s invasion in February, the UK, France and Germany have promised to stand by Ukraine with whatever assistance it takes to win the battle.

But July became the first month since the beginning of the conflict during which there were no significant new pledges of international support by Europe’s largest economies.

 

 

The German think tank’s data showed that Europe’s top donors – the UK, Germany, Poland, France, Italy and Spain – had failed to make a contribution.

The UK remains Europe’s largest contributor to Ukraine’s military efforts, but still falls some €21 billion behind the United States.

“This assistance is a matter of life and death for us,” Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief of staff, said on Thursday.

Despite a lack of new offers of support, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Western governments had narrowed the gap between committed and delivered aid.

Germany in particular has been criticised for its slow weapons deliveries, with some promises taking months to fulfil.

[M S E Refugee]

10 minutes ago, BWW said:

houses are very cheap in rural hungary. do you get a passport there witha sensible sized investment in sharez or a business without getting reamed on taxes?

purebloods allwed?

I got my Polish Passport through my Polish Grandfather and would prefer Poland as I have spent a lot of time there however Hungary looks to have sensible and pragmatic leadership.

 

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The UK remains Europe’s largest contributor to Ukraine’s military efforts, but still falls some €21 billion behind the United States.

Pathetic, when one considers our relative sizes.  

[Calcutta]

With the break up of the UK I can see England swinging violently and shockingly to the right wing.  

No Labour Party to worry about and politics here becomes a game of who can pacify millions of angry,  cold,  previously forgotten voters. 

[feed]

The lend lease agreements that have been made with Ukraine.  I do wonder when it gets to the point, where they’re no longer practically  profitable, as they'll be in debt for more than 100 years anyway.  And the infrastructure rebuild contracts become the next profit point.   

 

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, BWW said:

houses are very cheap in rural hungary. do you get a passport there witha sensible sized investment in sharez or a business without getting reamed on taxes?

purebloods allwed?

Reminds me of these people...

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/ps950-000-cloud-over-channel-4-chateau-s-mr-fawlty-6582050.html

That was Slovakia though.

Dodgy as fuck IIRC

Then they put up 11 years later...

 

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/man-laundered-78000-two-victims-15086341

Man laundered £78,000 from two victims of wine investment scam

David Darrell, 52, admitted transferring criminal property and was ordered to pay back the cash and handed a suspended jail term

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

34 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

That sounds awfully close to the idea of burning crops during the great depression, as otherwise prices would be too low and farmers would go bankrupt. If I'm right, it's strange to see a rhyming of the history.

On the subject of whether we would ever get the "blitz" spirit back, it is worth reading Priestley's "English Journey" from 1933. Many parts of the country were full of the broken, unemployable young men who had never worked after leaving education. They were among the men who fought and won the war (although they were the cannon-fodder rather than the elite soldiers; and "won" is perhaps a bit strong when you consider later history -- but the kinetic war was definitely won).

Yes but they were protestant working class boys who thought the same and had the same culture.

 

We now live in woke tower of Babel.

 

Kipling, as ever, knew what we have forgotten

 

"The Stranger within my gate,
He may be true or kind,
But he does not talk my talk--
I cannot feel his mind.
I see the face and the eyes and the mouth,
But not the soul behind."

[marceau]

56 minutes ago, Harley said:

We rightly moan about polos but just to stress, our ever present civil service has been working to the mantra of "managed decline" for decades.

No, not at the top anyway. I know these people.  They genuinely think of themselves as world saviours, genius machiavellians, the shepherds of human progress - they fully bought their own bullshit. Decline isn't part of their mindset at all; it's ambition, narcissism, virtue and  sanctimony.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, marceau said:

No, not at the top anyway. I know these people.  They genuinely think of themselves as world saviours, genius machiavellians, the shepherds of human progress - they fully bought their own bullshit. Decline isn't part of their mindset at all; it's ambition, narcissism, virtue and  sanctimony.

The old "The road to hell is paved with good intentions" expression

Although it does depend who gets to brute-force/simplify the definition of good

[Sue Lowe]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.

Love the museum there.

Got family in Spennymoor. The new art gallery in the town hall there is worth a visit as well.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Did you read the article? Oxford street isn’t owned by the crown estate, it’s owned by the Middle East and Asian ‘investors’.

The sweet shops don’t have to make a profit as they are used as a front through a myriad of shell companies for criminality and money laundering.

Look at the end, Westminster council said that without them, they would just have empty shops instead.

The family silver of this country has long been sold and melted down a long time ago.

I didn't read between the lines that the sweet shops were a front for money laundering. Which seems rather obvious when pointed out. I suppose it doesn't matter if they never file accounts so long as money gets to the landlord.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

More Ukraine surrender prepping.Certainly seems the narrative is altering.

With winter approaching and Truss facing some serious voter anger ref cost of living crisis,sending moeny to the Ukraine doesn't play well when some people are struggling to pay fuel/food bills.

Call me callous,but a peace deal in the Ukraine could provide decent back drop for DH style melt up.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/18/no-new-military-pledges-ukraine-july-begs-question-has-west/

Military support for Ukraine appears to be drying up after research revealed that major European governments failed to make a single new pledge to send weapons to Kyiv last month.

Since Russia’s invasion in February, the UK, France and Germany have promised to stand by Ukraine with whatever assistance it takes to win the battle.

But July became the first month since the beginning of the conflict during which there were no significant new pledges of international support by Europe’s largest economies.

 

 

The German think tank’s data showed that Europe’s top donors – the UK, Germany, Poland, France, Italy and Spain – had failed to make a contribution.

The UK remains Europe’s largest contributor to Ukraine’s military efforts, but still falls some €21 billion behind the United States.

“This assistance is a matter of life and death for us,” Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief of staff, said on Thursday.

Despite a lack of new offers of support, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Western governments had narrowed the gap between committed and delivered aid.

Germany in particular has been criticised for its slow weapons deliveries, with some promises taking months to fulfil.

I note JRS (JPM Russia Trust) is up 26% the last two weeks.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

More Ukraine surrender prepping.Certainly seems the narrative is altering.

With winter approaching and Truss facing some serious voter anger ref cost of living crisis,sending moeny to the Ukraine doesn't play well when some people are struggling to pay fuel/food bills.

Call me callous,but a peace deal in the Ukraine could provide decent back drop for DH style melt up.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/18/no-new-military-pledges-ukraine-july-begs-question-has-west/

Military support for Ukraine appears to be drying up after research revealed that major European governments failed to make a single new pledge to send weapons to Kyiv last month.

Since Russia’s invasion in February, the UK, France and Germany have promised to stand by Ukraine with whatever assistance it takes to win the battle.

But July became the first month since the beginning of the conflict during which there were no significant new pledges of international support by Europe’s largest economies.

 

 

The German think tank’s data showed that Europe’s top donors – the UK, Germany, Poland, France, Italy and Spain – had failed to make a contribution.

The UK remains Europe’s largest contributor to Ukraine’s military efforts, but still falls some €21 billion behind the United States.

“This assistance is a matter of life and death for us,” Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief of staff, said on Thursday.

Despite a lack of new offers of support, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Western governments had narrowed the gap between committed and delivered aid.

Germany in particular has been criticised for its slow weapons deliveries, with some promises taking months to fulfil.

Seriously the way the narrative is altering and the way people and the media react and virtue signal is like watching a fading Netflix series  

Eg….I watched the first series, you know, the NATO build up, the invasion bit, exodus, sanctions and it was quite exciting. The special effects with the bombs weren’t great though. 

The second series has already got boring, the energy price narrative, inflation stuff is all a bit depressing. The Biden/Pelosi characters don’t even look realistic. 

X Factor starts soon so unless China start in Taiwan or the Monkeypox idea isn’t expanded I won’t bother watching the third series.

The media and politician are shite. They should be honest and spell out what is happening, why and where this whole economic disaster could end up. That could actually make a really good story….I guess TPTB just won’t let them.

 

[Plan-b]

47 minutes ago, Harley said:

I note JRS (JPM Russia Trust) is up 26% the last two weeks.

Yes it was 600/800p pre invasion now at 92p ish.

It can be bought on HL after completing a risks questionnaire.

I did well with POLY after the invasion I'm tempted with JRS.

Largish spread though, probably because it's not actively traded and it is basically gambling.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Working people had never in the main experienced car ownership or the delights of going somewhere abroad prior to WW2 and even the 1950s so the simple folk won't be happy.

My uncle wanted to be a vet.  War came and he was made to go down the mines in Wales and worked there until he retired.  Hard, dangerous, and he hated it.  Retired, bought a small farm, and loved his life again after 30+ years bloody hard graft.

Imagine a 17 year old now being told - down the mines for you boyo.  Stop your snivelling.

 

Never happen.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Luke Gromen makes a great point about thinking of everything in terms of energy.

 

He says the Ruble is basically a gas backed currency and he thinks it will appreciate against the dollar. 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

Unfortunately it will probably be the last horse in the western worlds glue factory

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

IMO it is all about the fed pivot.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, feed said:

The lend lease agreements that have been made with Ukraine.  I do wonder when it gets to the point, where they’re no longer practically  profitable, as they'll be in debt for more than 100 years anyway.  And the infrastructure rebuild contracts become the next profit point.  

Great point.  I was thinking the same.  Will it (the remaining farmland since the Russians have the other stuff) be owned by Blackrock and co?  That is, a US enclave in Europe and close enough to stuff muck around?  Maybe get those biolabs going again, etc.  Like all things, always look for the second or (certainly in this case) more derivative of what's served up to you.

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yes it was 600/800p pre invasion now at 92p ish.

It can be bought on HL after completing a risks questionnaire.

I did well with POLY after the invasion I'm tempted with JRS.

Largish spread though, probably because it's not actively traded and it is basically gambling.

I still own 'cause I like me pain and as a hedge in case Ivor turns up at me house 'cause I can then wave it at him and we'll all be cool.  Hell, I may even ladder up babe if I can get the fill!

[CannonFodder]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

IMO it is all about the fed pivot.

I feel it is also China playing silly buggers - downplaying their economy to talk up dollar to force people off it becomes two expensive. Also places pressure to pivot at which point China does opposite.

Seen their new fire brigade? - any possible dual use of these would you say.

As they build up their fire brigade , nothing to worry about

 

 

[Big Boy]

36 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yes it was 600/800p pre invasion now at 92p ish.

It can be bought on HL after completing a risks questionnaire.

I did well with POLY after the invasion I'm tempted with JRS.

I like a bit of risk and made a small amount from POLY too.

The questionnaire:

Have you read any educational material?

Yeah (DOSBODS).

You have completed the questionnaire and may now trade in complex products.