Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

...I had a mates wife call round for coffee during the week and eventually got round to saying she was concerned about me and was I still "hoarding" stuff...

I would be very worried about becoming known as that guy, if the stereotype involves physical PMs at home. If you have nothing, or just less than expected, to turn over in a robbery it could turn nasty.

In times of shortage "hoarders" have historically always been an easy scapegoat, we even saw this during the great toilet paper shortage although only in the soft form of mockery. If things get tight on food you could see propaganda ramp up, with police cautioning that stockpiles may make you a target for crime but that they cannot reasonably protect you due to limited resources.

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Do they get 50% of the stash in the divorce?

Interesting thread. I had a mates wife call round for coffee during the week and eventually got round to saying she was concerned about me and was I still "hoarding" stuff.
She genuinely meant it. The mumsnet thread makes me think theres something going on on social media to highlight this or is that too much of a conspiracy? Same one came round about a year ago saying they were concerned I wasnt taking the vaccine. My reply then was along the lines of, well someone has to look after your kids if it goes pear shaped.
Could be just coincidence but I dont really beleive in them ;-) Maybe she was just checking if I still had enough stuff to share with her kids ;-)

Was out for a walk last night in the local town. Restaurants and takeaways looked busy, Saturday night, not payday etc. Less people out walking their dogs than Ive seen before, noticed this as it had pished down most of the day and was a dry evening, so thought the place would be crawling with people with dogs.

 

korean dog recipes are available online....

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I would be very worried about becoming known as that guy, if the stereotype involves physical PMs at home. If you have nothing, or just less than expected, to turn over in a robbery it could turn nasty.

In times of shortage "hoarders" have historically always been an easy scapegoat, we even saw this during the great toilet paper shortage although only in the soft form of mockery. If things get tight on food you could see propaganda ramp up, with police cautioning that stockpiles may make you a target for crime but that they cannot reasonably protect you due to limited resources.

Dont worry, I have that all well covered. One of the great advantages of living in NI!

[Lightly Toasted]

3 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

As an aside that ghostly laughter you can hear emanating from parts of the north Midlands, Yorkshire, the North East and the Welsh valleys are those dead ex coal miners seeing a Tory government getting finally getting paid back for completely destroying their industry in the past. 

They might well be laughing for tribal reasons but the industry's production/employment record is against them -- it was an ongoing, long-term decline (the right-hand-side of a "conventional coal" Hubbert curve following peak UK coal in the 1920s) with blips due to strikes, but lacking the the step changes you'd expect if someone really eviscerated the UK coal industry* in a short period, as Thatcher is generally condemned of having done.

 

* not the same as mining communities.

[23rdian]

12 hours ago, Loki said:

It's a tough job but someone has to do it 

They have been pissing on us for years.

[23rdian]

17 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

You would think that the Gaslighting can only work for so long.

Dr Campbell is now being castigated as a conspiracy theorist as he now has reservations about the Jab and won't take the booster.

If people like him are questioning things then maybe there is hope!

Horse. Bolted.

[Axeman123]

Random bit of Hendry in the Times from yesterday:

https://archive.ph/ByBSI

[Virgil Caine]

28 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

They might well be laughing for tribal reasons but the industry's production/employment record is against them -- it was an ongoing, long-term decline (the right-hand-side of a "conventional coal" Hubbert curve following peak UK coal in the 1920s) with blips due to strikes, but lacking the the step changes you'd expect if someone really eviscerated the UK coal industry* in a short period, as Thatcher is generally condemned of having done.

 

* not the same as mining communities.

I am sure that graph will be a great comfort when the power goes off. 

The problem in the 1970s was that Britain was overdependent on coal for electrical power generation. Now it is overdependent on gas. The major failure is that the U.K. has not opened any nuclear power stations since 1995. Our power generation mix is simply wrong and we have essentially learnt nothing from the 1970s.
 

[M S E Refugee]

34 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Do they get 50% of the stash in the divorce?

Interesting thread. I had a mates wife call round for coffee during the week and eventually got round to saying she was concerned about me and was I still "hoarding" stuff.
She genuinely meant it. The mumsnet thread makes me think theres something going on on social media to highlight this or is that too much of a conspiracy? Same one came round about a year ago saying they were concerned I wasnt taking the vaccine. My reply then was along the lines of, well someone has to look after your kids if it goes pear shaped.
Could be just coincidence but I dont really beleive in them ;-) Maybe she was just checking if I still had enough stuff to share with her kids ;-)

Was out for a walk last night in the local town. Restaurants and takeaways looked busy, Saturday night, not payday etc. Less people out walking their dogs than Ive seen before, noticed this as it had pished down most of the day and was a dry evening, so thought the place would be crawling with people with dogs.

 

I think these Women are unsettled by people who think differently to them so they crave reassurance from one another.

They were also slagging off Jordan Peterson and I bet not one of them have ever listened to him.

I really hope we are wrong about everything and everyone will live happy ever after.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think these Women are unsettled by people who think differently to them so they crave reassurance from one another.

They were also slagging off Jordan Peterson and I bet not one of them have ever listened to him.

I really hope we are wrong about everything and everyone will live happy ever after.

Apart from Mumsnutters.

[A tremendous # on the lung]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hat tip to whoever shared it first, but in case anyone missed it, that Huge Henry Javier Blass podcast is absolutely superb.

 

You can tell Hugh has been away from the game for a while but that's to our advantage as he asks questions that don't assume knowledge. Although I must add, I think Hugh's prediction that oil will be around 70 a barrel in five years means he's been on the whacky backy. 

 

His reaction to hearing China's refining capacity and how long they've been refusing to export ANY of it is priceless.

 

Blass also makes crystal clear that German industry is completely fucked without cheap Russian gas, the chemical industry especially.

 

I have a contact through twitter who I've become very friendly with, German ex trader for 25 years now retired to Sweden and invests just for himself. He said his high level contacts in private equity in Germany are VERY pessimistic on the country's future.

[Lightly Toasted]

30 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

I am sure that graph will be a great comfort when the power goes off. 

The problem in the 1970s was that Britain was overdependent on coal for electrical power generation. Now it is overdependent on gas. The major failure is that the U.K. has not opened any nuclear power stations since 1995. Our power generation mix is simply wrong and we have essentially learnt nothing from the 1970s.
 

Any story of remorseless resource depletion is uncomfortable, so probably not. It's presenting it as a political choice by the Tories that I take issue with -- the decline was similar under either party and there was little/nothing anyone could have done to arrest it.

Modern technology might allow us to extract more now (let's hope!) but that's a different issue.

I agree on the over-dependence on gas and the lack of nuclear; I've always felt uncomfortable about putting so many eggs in the "dash for gas" basket. Short-term UK thinking as usual.

[ThoughtCriminal]

I still see and read all of these experts who think that new gas and oil can be brought online almost with the press of a button.

 

I think that has to be factored into where oil and gas prices are going because they still just don't get it when it comes to how big the lag is.

 

Major thanks to CP for all he's done educating us on that topic.

 

Hugh Hendrys discussion with Javier also highlighted another common issue when he said that the price being paid for oil and gas and the headline figure in the financials aren't the same. Made me think of gold and silver and paper prices. He said that could well become a major issue at some point.

 

Suppression of reality everywhere.

[Bilbo]

Bit late on woman but try this 

 

[Juniper]

16 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Any story of remorseless resource depletion is uncomfortable, so probably not. It's presenting it as a political choice by the Tories that I take issue with -- the decline was similar under either party and there was little/nothing anyone could have done to arrest it.

Modern technology might allow us to extract more now (let's hope!) but that's a different issue.

I agree on the over-dependence on gas and the lack of nuclear; I've always felt uncomfortable about putting so many eggs in the "dash for gas" basket. Short-term UK thinking as usual.

I won’t argue with the overall trend but my dad’s pit was productive and did have coal reserves when it was shut in the early 90s. He thinks it will be impossible to access what was left behind now the old shaft has been filled. I don’t suppose it would still be open today so maybe it’s a moot point but I don’t accept there was no political motivation - I saw them choose to send a thousand productive men to the dole queue because foreign coal was cheaper.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Great post by Michael Burry.

 

Look at that debt line versus the GDP.

 

"That which cannot go on won't".

[Lightly Toasted]

5 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

£2,500 is more likely. Part of the current rapid predicted bill inflation could be to make their eventual cap seem much more generous than it is. Eg without our help your bill would be £6k not £2.5k.

They should restructure so that the standing charge is lower also. The incentive to use less energy should be substantial.

The price cap applying to every unit consumed needs to go, it inhibits demand destruction. It was intended to stop suppliers using uncompetitive default tariffs to milk the elderly etc who weren't financially on-the-ball, but by preventing the market from operating it led to the bankruptcy of many (admittedly unwise) companies forced into supplying variable-price-customers at a loss.

A better intervention would have been to insist that the default tariff was reasonable in the context of the supplier's offering (limit the spread of tariffs offered by a single firm, for example). Or just insist that the company contacts its default-tariff customers every year, advising them that they could get a better deal.

I'd sooner see a bung to every household and the cap removed. Or maybe given that we are where we are, a price cap applied to the first n units. Either way, the poor would be spared the worst effects; the rich would be incentivised to be more frugal.

[BWW]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Just reached 45 minutes and he has come back in for the first time in ages. Had to pause, seriously reconsidering turning it off.

Interesting concept just before: nat gas 8usd USA, 40usd elsewhere (or something like that and I forget the units). If you have energy intensive industrial processes, or ones with NG as feedstock (like chemical fertiliser production) you essentially have to relocate to USA to be competitive.

To me this implies on-shoring German industry. It also fits in with my theory that the sanctions really are being applied on Europe, and gives a whole new set of reasons for the Ukraine war from a USA point of view.

it was 8 and 50 and in the follow up answer he said the 50 cost will remain as the maxoaid in europe but the 8 is likely to increase.

the numbers i found most interesting were cost/btu equivslent to barrel oil

oil 100 ish now

max elec edf 2000 guessing this is max for an hour or , not max average over a week or even a day

gas in eu 250

then followed up with extra cost for refining oil due to losing access to russian refineries has gone from10 usdper barrel  to 60.

obvious thoughts onall this is ability touse different furl sourcrs reduces cost.

remember a post here froman industry insider suggesting lead time to get more n sea oil gas is ? 2 years? if paperwork nonsense is slimmed down.

other options coal extraction and convert or recommission power stations. what.s the leadtime?

generationburning oil or make gas from oil .... again lead time? anyone know?

the problem with any option is that someone has to commit to an investment  with 10?? year payback. bp and shell are only gonna do stuff if gov promise them a long term fixed price.

instead media and starmers lot just whinge on about windfall tax.hopefully both bp and shell are investing in long term plans to relocate fast should need arise.

[Lightly Toasted]

16 minutes ago, Juniper said:

I won’t argue with the overall trend but my dad’s pit was productive and did have coal reserves when it was shut in the early 90s. He thinks it will be impossible to access what was left behind now the old shaft has been filled. I don’t suppose it would still be open today so maybe it’s a moot point but I don’t accept there was no political motivation - I saw them choose to send a thousand productive men to the dole queue because foreign coal was cheaper.

I'm convinced there was a political/ideological motivation*, I just don't think it had the long-term effect that people imagine.

Allowing significant coal reserves to become permanently inaccessible was clearly short-termist thinking, I remember this being discussed in 1980s. Mines irretrievably flooding once the pumping stopped, etc.

* payback for the miners' strike of 1972 that crippled the Heath government, plus ensuring that the Tories 1974 campaign question "who governs Britain?" could never again credibly be answered with "the unions".

 

[Starsend]

15 hours ago, Boon said:

Maybe one of your wives has rumbled you?

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4615697-dh-has-completely-changed

That's an interesting thread to read, what a bunch of thickies. They rabbit on about DH not respecting her views and how abusive this is and yet they completely disrespect his. I found some of their notions that there's no 'control' going on, amusing to say the least - there are always groups seeking to control and gain advantage from any major shifts going on in the world.

I do think it's a good example of polarisation of views on both sides - the truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle. Women rarely believe in conspiracy theories because they're not much interested in the world around them (mostly) other than immediate and obvious impacts on their own families lives. Men tend to think a bit more abstractly. He'd have been better off discussing nothing with her and telling her the food was because prices were rocketing which even a tard can't dispute. I have stockpiled food in my gaff, prob a good six months worth. This is primarily as an inflation hedge but also because it really doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where the war in Ukraine gets out of hand, supply chains are completely fucked up, add seriously incompetent Governments across the Western world into the mix - and food shortages could easily be widespread. I don't need to believe in conspiracies where they're deliberately trying to starve me to death. 

I try to be somewhere in the middle with the conspiracy stuff. I remember on this forum many were convinced that all the vaccinated were going to be dead by the end of last Winter; spazzers  To me it's clear that the vaccines are not safe but they're not going to kill everybody in some dastardly plot either. Same with all the WEF stuff, they're showing the direction of travel they'd like to go in but it will likely end up something not quite as dystopian as many on here imagine - although it could be fairly shit.

Had to laugh at the constant references to DH spending joint money (translation: his wages).

[BWW]

24 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

The price cap applying to every unit consumed needs to go, it inhibits demand destruction. It was intended to stop suppliers using uncompetitive default tariffs to milk the elderly etc who weren't financially on-the-ball, but by preventing the market from operating it led to the bankruptcy of many (admittedly unwise) companies forced into supplying variable-price-customers at a loss.

A better intervention would have been to insist that the default tariff was reasonable in the context of the supplier's offering (limit the spread of tariffs offered by a single firm, for example). Or just insist that the company contacts its default-tariff customers every year, advising them that they could get a better deal.

I'd sooner see a bung to every household and the cap removed. Or maybe given that we are where we are, a price cap applied to the first n units. Either way, the poor would be spared the worst effects; the rich would be incentivised to be more frugal.

interesting equivalence.in your last para.

mathematically they have same effect

pschologically the first xxx elec units at 20p rest at 70p is more likely to reduce usage / demand and can be billed exactly same way except anyone with very low usage would not get as big a bung.

BUT it would need a huge persistent media campaign to get half the pop to understand they pay for units shown on meter rather than what their dd is.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

That's an interesting thread to read, what a bunch of thickies. They rabbit on about DH not respecting her views and how abusive this is and yet they completely disrespect his. I found some of their notions that there's no 'control' going on, amusing to say the least - there are always groups seeking to control and gain advantage from any major shifts going on in the world.

I do think it's a good example of polarisation of views on both sides - the truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle. Women rarely believe in conspiracy theories because they're not much interested in the world around them (mostly) other than immediate and obvious impacts on their own families lives. Men tend to think a bit more abstractly. He'd have been better off discussing nothing with her and telling her the food was because prices were rocketing which even a tard can't dispute. I have stockpiled food in my gaff, prob a good six months worth. This is primarily as an inflation hedge but also because it really doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where the war in Ukraine gets out of hand, supply chains are completely fucked up, add seriously incompetent Governments across the Western world into the mix - and food shortages could easily be widespread. I don't need to believe in conspiracies where they're deliberately trying to starve me to death. 

I try to be somewhere in the middle with the conspiracy stuff. I remember on this forum many were convinced that all the vaccinated were going to be dead by the end of last Winter; spazzers  To me it's clear that the vaccines are not safe but they're not going to kill everybody in some dastardly plot either. Same with all the WEF stuff, they're showing the direction of travel they'd like to go in but it will likely end up something not quite as dystopian as many on here imagine - although it could be fairly shit.

Had to laugh at the constant references to DH spending joint money (translation: his wages).

You might want to check non covid excess mortality figures, it's through the roof in all age groups.

 

Birth rates have also plunged in numerous countries.

[Starsend]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You might want to check non covid excess mortality figures, it's through the roof in all age groups.

 

Birth rates have also plunged in numerous countries.

I've seen them and I don't dispute that there's certainly something going on. But there are other factors at play as well. It's not as simple as the vaccine is killing everybody - although there's no doubt it is killing some. Not safe, is clear to me. 

[JMD]

Edward Chancellor has a new book out - it's topic is a deep dive into the whole subject of interest, interest rates, the history of interest rates, etc. This podcast is part1, part2 is subscription only, but still well worth a listen.

            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QBV9e1FQFAk

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

That's an interesting thread to read, what a bunch of thickies. They rabbit on about DH not respecting her views and how abusive this is and yet they completely disrespect his. I found some of their notions that there's no 'control' going on, amusing to say the least - there are always groups seeking to control and gain advantage from any major shifts going on in the world.

I do think it's a good example of polarisation of views on both sides - the truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle. Women rarely believe in conspiracy theories because they're not much interested in the world around them (mostly) other than immediate and obvious impacts on their own families lives. Men tend to think a bit more abstractly. He'd have been better off discussing nothing with her and telling her the food was because prices were rocketing which even a tard can't dispute. I have stockpiled food in my gaff, prob a good six months worth. This is primarily as an inflation hedge but also because it really doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where the war in Ukraine gets out of hand, supply chains are completely fucked up, add seriously incompetent Governments across the Western world into the mix - and food shortages could easily be widespread. I don't need to believe in conspiracies where they're deliberately trying to starve me to death. 

I try to be somewhere in the middle with the conspiracy stuff. I remember on this forum many were convinced that all the vaccinated were going to be dead by the end of last Winter; spazzers  To me it's clear that the vaccines are not safe but they're not going to kill everybody in some dastardly plot either. Same with all the WEF stuff, they're showing the direction of travel they'd like to go in but it will likely end up something not quite as dystopian as many on here imagine - although it could be fairly shit.

Had to laugh at the constant references to DH spending joint money (translation: his wages).

I think OP on that thread has a valid gripe. The dh is more extreme than posters here, where's our thread that says nuclear war is coming ? Gripe is valid because if she requested he not discuss with her, he should respect that.

The scary part of the thread is the dominant opinon that the bloke has MH problems. Leading to reprogram him, lock him up. They belong in China. Includes many utter cunts who are scrounging our tax money for 'work' in their repressive occupation which is not far from totalitarianism.

This for example

"Sorry to hear this - I work in this field, it’s not at all east for friends and family.

First off, this doesn’t necessarily mean MH issues, but it’s worth checking for signs of genuine paranoia. From what you’ve described it doesn’t sound like that, but if it is then there’s more specific pathways to ahelp.

More likely from what you’ve said is that he’s fallen into a trap that literally millions have, which is partly to do with the way the internet works, partly to do with the speed of comms, partly to do with bad actors (as they’re broadly called in security policy terms) taking advantage of credulous people - sometimes it’s for profit, sometimes for profile, sometimes if it’s government it’s more complex - and partly to do with a feeling of insecurity in the world (COVID as the pandemic was bad enough, but the disinfodemic is perhaps longer lasting)

If it’s any consolation, he’s one of literally millions globally that have been shown to be more susceptible to being hoodwinked, and the sad irony is that he thinks he’s actually the one who is thinking clearly.

The bad news is that the best psychological science shows there’s no easy fix. We have some ideas, primarily from cult deprogramming, but honestly ...."