Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ILikeCake]

10 minutes ago, BWW said:

I think OP on that thread has a valid gripe. The dh is more extreme than posters here, where's our thread that says nuclear war is coming ? Gripe is valid because if she requested he not discuss with her, he should respect that.

The scary part of the thread is the dominant opinon that the bloke has MH problems. Leading to reprogram him, lock him up. They belong in China. Includes many utter cunts who are scrounging our tax money for 'work' in their repressive occupation which is not far from totalitarianism.

This for example

"Sorry to hear this - I work in this field, it’s not at all east for friends and family.

First off, this doesn’t necessarily mean MH issues, but it’s worth checking for signs of genuine paranoia. From what you’ve described it doesn’t sound like that, but if it is then there’s more specific pathways to ahelp.

More likely from what you’ve said is that he’s fallen into a trap that literally millions have, which is partly to do with the way the internet works, partly to do with the speed of comms, partly to do with bad actors (as they’re broadly called in security policy terms) taking advantage of credulous people - sometimes it’s for profit, sometimes for profile, sometimes if it’s government it’s more complex - and partly to do with a feeling of insecurity in the world (COVID as the pandemic was bad enough, but the disinfodemic is perhaps longer lasting)

If it’s any consolation, he’s one of literally millions globally that have been shown to be more susceptible to being hoodwinked, and the sad irony is that he thinks he’s actually the one who is thinking clearly.

The bad news is that the best psychological science shows there’s no easy fix. We have some ideas, primarily from cult deprogramming, but honestly ...."

A lot of people are in for a big shock and a lot of pain the next few years.  I include the OP in that statement, not the husband.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Juniper said:

I won’t argue with the overall trend but my dad’s pit was productive and did have coal reserves when it was shut in the early 90s. He thinks it will be impossible to access what was left behind now the old shaft has been filled. I don’t suppose it would still be open today so maybe it’s a moot point but I don’t accept there was no political motivation - I saw them choose to send a thousand productive men to the dole queue because foreign coal was cheaper.

Here in Durham our drifts near me closed first,the coal was shallow,sometimes at the surface,but the seams could be very thin,more suited to the old pickaxe mining than to mechanized.The coal measures slowly dropped deeper and by Easington were deep.Those seams ran way out to sea and it took half a shift getting to and from the face.However there are places where they could still get huge amounts of coal.Unlikely the drifts,but even they could be profitable given energy prices.Mining moved to where huge pits were needed like in South Africa,but we really should of kept a small industry going that could ramp a bit.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, BWW said:

I think OP on that thread has a valid gripe. The dh is more extreme than posters here, where's our thread that says nuclear war is coming ? Gripe is valid because if she requested he not discuss with her, he should respect that.

The scary part of the thread is the dominant opinon that the bloke has MH problems. Leading to reprogram him, lock him up. They belong in China. Includes many utter cunts who are scrounging our tax money for 'work' in their repressive occupation which is not far from totalitarianism.

This for example

"Sorry to hear this - I work in this field, it’s not at all east for friends and family.

First off, this doesn’t necessarily mean MH issues, but it’s worth checking for signs of genuine paranoia. From what you’ve described it doesn’t sound like that, but if it is then there’s more specific pathways to ahelp.

More likely from what you’ve said is that he’s fallen into a trap that literally millions have, which is partly to do with the way the internet works, partly to do with the speed of comms, partly to do with bad actors (as they’re broadly called in security policy terms) taking advantage of credulous people - sometimes it’s for profit, sometimes for profile, sometimes if it’s government it’s more complex - and partly to do with a feeling of insecurity in the world (COVID as the pandemic was bad enough, but the disinfodemic is perhaps longer lasting)

If it’s any consolation, he’s one of literally millions globally that have been shown to be more susceptible to being hoodwinked, and the sad irony is that he thinks he’s actually the one who is thinking clearly.

The bad news is that the best psychological science shows there’s no easy fix. We have some ideas, primarily from cult deprogramming, but honestly ...."

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

[M S E Refugee]

21 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

A lot of people are in for a big shock and a lot of pain the next few years.  I include the OP in that statement, not the husband.

Those Women will go the way of that fearless flightless Bird from Madagascar which became extinct due to it being unable to sense danger.

 

[BWW]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

lots of spends was on camping kit and eeerm knives. every attentive reader here at least.knows it should be crossbows.

[sleepwello'nights]

On 19/08/2022 at 12:21, marceau said:

No, not at the top anyway. I know these people.  They genuinely think of themselves as world saviours, genius machiavellians, the shepherds of human progress - they fully bought their own bullshit. Decline isn't part of their mindset at all; it's ambition, narcissism, virtue and  sanctimony.

You've missed out lining their pockets 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Beyond parody.

 

I can't tell anymore if it's incompetence or intentional.

 

 

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, BWW said:

eeerm knives

What are these? Knives for scousers?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Gromen nails it, as usual.

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

What's caused this is that the state has deliberately stepped into the "provider of last resort" role, displacing husbands/fathers. That predisposes her to dismiss his efforts (which are weird and inconvenient to her in the short term) because she believes that her long term comfort is secured by other means.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

It's a death cult. No other explanation.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

Exactly. I’m labelled as all sorts, but I know as does everyone else what both what men and women are capable of and each have there strengths. It’s always been that way since time infinitum.

Say what you want about women police officers but they are second to none for compassion in a devastating scenario for families or domestic violence and children. (don’t get me wrong there are exceptions on both sides) but the modern world tries to obscuriate that and blur the lines.

Everyone has their strengths and that should be celebrated at the end of the day when you need a heavy lump the laws of physics doesn’t change.

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It's a death cult. No other explanation.

He is a Green, just in case anyone was wondering.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Edward Chancellor has a new book out - it's topic is a deep dive into the whole subject of interest, interest rates, the history of interest rates, etc. This podcast is part1, part2 is subscription only, but still well worth a listen.

            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QBV9e1FQFAk

Forgot to mention Chancellor in the podcast makes an interesting observation that some economists are how pretty much ignored because their work can not be easily modelled. Minsky is apparently one of those economists, and I believe is a favourite of @sancho panza?           ...I'm thinking paying attention to these otherwise forgotten economists gives those who understand their work an added 'edge'?

[Democorruptcy]

16 hours ago, JMD said:

I think/hope a energy price cap of £2000 will be set, paid for by extra taxes (perhaps involving a sinking fund paid over 20 years) and removing the green levy/vat on bills. Plus extra government benefit support for the poorest.

I find that post quite offensive. You seriously want my taxes to be used to bail out what could be multiple asset owners? People who have overstretched themselves now get my taxes to pay their energy bills, so they have enough left over to be able to pay bankers their mortgage payments. W... T.... F.... I have no problem with help being given to the really in need. Let them huddle together to keep warm in a debtor's prison.

[ThoughtCriminal]

"It's different this time".

[Funn3r]

20 hours ago, Calcutta said:

I pissed on the side of the BOE

I went there once to fix a server. Very weird you walk in this massive entrance and a fancy dress security guard called a "pink" escorts you to wherever. Lloyds is weird as well. BACS is more normal and they kicked me out for being scruffy - "maybe it's the computer room but this is still a bank." 

 

Cunts. 

[BWW]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Couple of comments there on lead times to new oil and gas, so worth saying again. And journos, just go ask any of your industry contacts and they'll tell you the same thing. It's really important to get out there and into thicko politician heads.

Lead time to new oil and gas projects is 5-10 years. 7 is a good rule of thumb. The odd one gets done in less than 5 years, if they are simple (the North sea isn't simple). Many run over ten years. 

This process cannot be speeded up with cutting paperwork, it's all about gathering information by drilling to meet investment metrics in a stable fiscal environment. So the UK North sea is effectively dead, thanks to the windfall tax. Managed decline.

Globally, we have about one more year to trigger another oil and gas investment cycle. Were almost at 7 years now of severe underinvestment, i.e. the average time for a new project from exploration. Which means weve run out of the last cycles projects.

There is currently no discernible uptick in exploration worldwide. It takes about three years of decent prices to convince people to invest in exploration, which kicks off the new project cycle. It's understandable, as you have a good 70% chance of losing your money. But you have to do it - no exploration, no new projects. About a year to go....

But I'm starting to think that won't happen this time. Shareholders want their money, and the skillset in the industry has been devastated. Exploration in particular takes high end teams, and they are mostly gone after 7 years of cuts and redundancy. They're not sitting on the shelf, they go stale after a year or two out anyway. As for the ones hanging on in the industry, there are few young people with new ideas and few old gits with the experience of how not to make stupid mistakes. They are mostly mid career. Even if investment suddenly starts pouring in, there aren't the people to do it anymore. Bad wells will be drilled, blowouts will happen. 

All that's going on really,globally, is managed decline of existing assets. 

If that doesn't do a sharp 180, what that means is an end to growth (as we are witnessing) and in turn the blowup of debt based monetary system, which requires constant growth (I.e. constant cheap energy). Even if we found a new superior energy source, we needed fossil fuels to transition to it. They're still there, but it'd take years to skill up again and trigger the next wave of projects. The university masters courses in petroleum geology and engineering, which were a basic qualification for industry entry (and pretty much guaranteed you a high paying job if you could get in) don't really exist anymore. Companies stopped hiring grads, and grads wanted renewable/ESG stuff anyway. Believe me, I went out and talked to them, and saw the ideology creeping in. The universities rebranded them as 'MSc in sustainable energy' or similar. Aberdeen still has theirs going in fairness, but that's the capital of managed decline now. BP didn't consider one of these graduates fully trained till they had around ten years experience. They literally had grad->early career training programmes for ten years. They produced superb professionals, eventually...

Can you see where I'm going with this lead time to new projects?

A point on UK gas for the journos to ask their contacts about: there are 30-50 small gas accumulations already discovered but undeveloped in the UK which were uncommercial but would make money now and help get us over this hump. But no one wants to commit to them. Get the govt to underwrite the sales price at half of current prices, say 125p a therm and they will get developed in 2-5years. The lead time is shorter as we already know where the are and they already have wells in them (information).

Edit:

Equinor is the exception wrt grad hiring, and exploration in Norway, mainly because you could claim back a cash credit for most of a failed exploration well. So they drilled lots. Problem is that the process is not very rigorous if you know the well is only going to cost you $5m instead of $30m, and so they are not very good at it outside Norway.

Thanks for that. Sober assessment.

Probably implies shell and less so bp which are now bumping along close to ath are reliant on green bollox for future growth (ie not gonna be) so maybe worth keeping for divis for a year or two but at some point in the next few years will start a terminal decline.

i assumed they would continue rising to ath plus inflation but maybe not and the divis do not match inflation.

[CannonFodder]

Why no one has ever reformed the system we have

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

 

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

[ILikeCake]

1 hour ago, BWW said:

Thanks for that. Sober assessment.

Probably implies shell and less so bp which are now bumping along close to ath are reliant on green bollox for future growth (ie not gonna be) so maybe worth keeping for divis for a year or two but at some point in the next few years will start a terminal decline.

i assumed they would continue rising to ath plus inflation but maybe not and the divis do not match inflation.

Hard to know what's actually going on for certain.  I caught up with a mate who I hadn't seen for a while last weekend.  He's a pipeline engineer/designer and currently contracting for Total.  He said that they like to portray the green/renewable image but in reality they are all about oil.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

 

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

Could just be 77th

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

 

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

I'd happily kick stupid bitches like this around a room until I couldn't feel my legs.

 

Me with a mumsnutter when she starts slagging her husband off for being a prepper. (Don't watch if you're of a nervous disposition).

 

 

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

lets hope , hahaha. A good old kick in the teeth will set them straight.