Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

One way around that would be to buy exposure to silver in an ISA.  No CGT.

 

Until they `move the goalposts` overnight due to a "pandemic/circumstances that couldn't be foreseen"

[SpectrumFX]

53 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Until they `move the goalposts` overnight due to a "pandemic/circumstances that couldn't be foreseen"

Changes to the tax terms are always a risk, but I can sell everything in my ISA and empty it very quickly (pretty much same day if its a trading day), so I'm comfortable using the ISA allowance whilst it's available.

I'm more concerned about them moving the goalposts on my SIPP because there's more than a decade until I can get to that money.

[Errol]

10 hours ago, Plan-b said:

WisdomTree Physical Silver (GBP) PHSP .. You don't actually get to put your name on anything Physical and not been a great investment, like the whole PM sector TBH

It's fine for speculation. It just tracks the physical price. I hold it (PHAG). Silver is going to three figures at some point.

[Harley]

50 minutes ago, Errol said:

It's fine for speculation. It just tracks the physical price. I hold it (PHAG). Silver is going to three figures at some point.

I hold a few of the popular gold and silver etfs but am moving to the North American Sprott ones as some suggest they are more secure (e.g. actually have the underlying rather than a bit plus promissory notes).  Plus good liquidity which some UK based ones don't have (may be important in a crunch).

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Until they `move the goalposts` overnight due to a "pandemic/circumstances that couldn't be foreseen"

My expectation.  Lots they could on CGT which has been pretty much left alone recently.  Must be a target?    Could easily penalise certain assets, not just change rates, etc.  Effectively confiscation for some.

[Talking Monkey]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

My expectation.  Lots they could on CGT which has been pretty much left alone recently.  Must be a target?    Could easily penalise certain assets, not just change rates, etc.  Effectively confiscation for some.

If they do go on to do this be great if they can start with cgt on BTL properties 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

If they do go on to do this be great if they can start with cgt on BTL properties 

Theyll just not sell, not that they seem to sell them anyway, hence why there is barely anything on the market these days.

 

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

If they do go on to do this be great if they can start with cgt on BTL properties 

I heard something on an American YouTube channel about mutterings of CGT for theoretical/unrealised gains. Wouldn't put it past them

[reformed nice guy]

14 hours ago, stoobs said:

I’m thinking about currency collapse rather than breakdown of society, so you still want to convert your physical into cash rather than beans and bullets.

Currency collapse is the breakdown of society.

Can you imagine what the NHS would be like if the currency went down 80% in a short period? All the doctors would leave as they are always in demand the world over. All the clapping in the world wont stop it.

Repeat this with any person with an easily portable skillset.

[Hancock]

28 minutes ago, Loki said:

I heard something on an American YouTube channel about mutterings of CGT for theoretical/unrealised gains. Wouldn't put it past them

But then people would be able to offset theoretical/unrealised losses.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

But then people would be able to offset theoretical/unrealised losses.

I think it was for land, and other "Can't go wrong with" assets

[Hancock]

Just now, Loki said:

I think it was for land, and other "Can't go wrong with" assets

I think Gove will do something about people with more than 1 house, i despise him but he does seem willing to ruffle feathers.

But then my delusions pass and i realise we live under the land/property rigging party!

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

I think Gove will do something about people with more than 1 house, i despise him but he does seem willing to ruffle feathers.

But then my delusions pass and i realise we live under the land/property rigging party!

I just take heart in what @DurhamBorn said, (I'm probably mangling it) The US 30Y doesn't care about UK house prices

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

If they do go on to do this be great if they can start with cgt on BTL properties 

They can't do that, BTL is `public service`, where would all the destitute/renters live otherwise? 

[Lightscribe]

On 02/10/2021 at 09:19, DurhamBorn said:

One here just up the road,if i didnt have enough id get that one.To use those bottles you just need a simple regulator,the 15kg and 7kg use the same one,the 4.5k camping one uses a different one.Iv got a few of both,

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/194773892747451/?ref=search&referral_code=marketplace_search&referral_story_type=post&tracking=browse_serp%3Aa1463214-3d1a-4bf5-871b-6b1ebb44bc97

This is a smaller fire with the 7kg bottle and regulator included,half full bottle as well.

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/873598700174464/?ref=search&referral_code=marketplace_search&referral_story_type=post&tracking=browse_serp%3A5a276a12-42f8-433b-ab69-d4fa2104c2cc

Iv also got some of the pipe and clips spare.

Type of things everyone should have because when you need them,you wont get them.

This is the regulator needed for the 15kg and 7kg calor bottles,21mm ones

Yup I picked up a brand new gas fire that had hardly been used on Facebook marketplace the other day. Got it for £50 in the end, complete with one full Butane 15kg bottle and a half full 7kg. I’m also collecting the ‘free to collect empties’ also when the pop up and will have them re-filled and store them appropriately. Also got the regulator raised (gas safe engineer has to do this) on the caravan down the coast and got a couple of 47kg propane bottles I got on the cheap for down there too.

Im covered now at least for this winter against anymore fuel shortages and any other shit they throw at us. They can’t catch out the tight fisted Dosbodders.

 

[BurntBread]

A random thought. If we get a BK this winter and it wipes a lot of value from the stock market, I wonder if many of the recent early retirees -- at least those on DC private pensions -- will be coming back to the workforce?

[Shamone]

4 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

A random thought. If we get a BK this winter and it wipes a lot of value from the stock market, I wonder if many of the recent early retirees -- at least those on DC private pensions -- will be coming back to the workforce?

No one will go back. They will also have to force back the homeworkers.

[Chewing Grass]

34 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

A random thought. If we get a BK this winter and it wipes a lot of value from the stock market, I wonder if many of the recent early retirees -- at least those on DC private pensions -- will be coming back to the workforce?

You have another problem where people who thought they could retire can't because 30-40 years worth of 'investment' as mandated and regulated by the government has been torched yet a lot of final salary public sector are safe and index linked.

People will just give up working for something they can't achieve and it will be a 'bums on seats' very little effort economy just like soviet times.

Some may be forced back but they will be resentful as hell.

[JMD]

32 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

A random thought. If we get a BK this winter and it wipes a lot of value from the stock market, I wonder if many of the recent early retirees -- at least those on DC private pensions -- will be coming back to the workforce?

Hi Burnt Bread, I have just finished reading your fantastic summary (Magnum Opus!) of this thread which I must say I found extremely informative. Plus I'm thinking perhaps especially valuable for those 'who have not been here from the start' (so I have attempted to provide a link to the summary below, for those who might not be aware).                                                                                                                                                   Can I ask did you ever complete chapters 19/20? Only your last entry says you will post them once done.                                                                                                                                                                                What I have learned from the "Credit deflation" thread https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/16404-what-i-have-learned-from-the-credit-deflation-thread/

[BurntBread]

15 minutes ago, JMD said:

Hi Burnt Bread, I have just finished reading your fantastic summary (Magnum Opus!) of this thread which I must say I found extremely informative. Plus I'm thinking perhaps especially valuable for those 'who have not been here from the start' (so I have attempted to provide a link to the summary below, for those who might not be aware).                                                                                                                                                   Can I ask did you ever complete chapters 19/20? Only your last entry says you will post them once done.                                                                                                                                                                                What I have learned from the "Credit deflation" thread https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/16404-what-i-have-learned-from-the-credit-deflation-thread/

Thank you for the kind words, JMD; and no, I never attempted the last two posts. I wanted to talk about @Cattle Prod's idea that China may be forced to adopt a gold standard (or partial gold backing) to be able to buy oil from the middle East. I also liked some analysis of Trump's foreign policy which had not made it into the mainstream media, namely his desire to arrange for the turkic countries (not Turkey, which is not regarded as turkic by its neighbours) to get access to the sea: essentially a bid to build up the power of the old countries along the silk road as another counter-weight to other power-blocs in Asia. I also started reading "Tragedy and Hope", which is full of all kinds of insights into the shenanigans and culture of many countries in the last century. In the end, I couldn't (or haven't yet) fitted it all into my head to be able to summarise. I'm a simple-minded person, so I need to explain things simply to myself before I can write anything.

For the last one, "the end of the world as we know it" post (i.e. 2028/29/30), there is a lot less to say. I think both DH and @DurhamBorn are expecting "a totalitarian response"; that is to say, a near collapse of society, and probably communist (or something similar rebranded) dictators to emerge in the west, but altogether very hard times. That would be where the economics pushes the politics, because inflation will be getting to double-digits while at the same time governments will be a large fraction of the economy, but will suddenly be forced to stop spending to avoid hyperinflation. Nobody yet has good ideas where to hide during this time. I'm still thinking some combination of BATS and silver britannias (the latter perhaps cut in quarters, like old pennies) will be part of the strategy. It doesn't bode well for us renter plebs, but investment in health, perseverance and strong local communities are probably where the real value lies.

I have to say that with the acceleration towards totalitarianism right now, as well as the rabbit-holes I have been going down (finding out about serial killers, probable elite satanic cults, and the obvious corruption of the pharmaceutical companies, as well as the "long march through the institutions", the abolition of democracy through Dominion, the absence of a free press, and the pollution of the scientific literature) I didn't really have the heart to speculate about the end of the world ten years hence. We seem to have our hands full trying to avert it now, even while we (and governments) still have some financial fire-power to bring to bear on economic problems. In that sense, realising that the macro-economics points to a collapse in less than ten years is actually a message of relative hope for me.

[Democorruptcy]

On 01/10/2021 at 07:54, MrXxxx said:

Had a friend who did just that. His business was teaching outdoor pursuits, so seasonal to 6 months. He then spent the other colder 6 months on a retreat in India. He had worked out that the savings on a) rent, and b) heating made his lifestyle cheaper/viable.....`thinking outside the conventional box`

A friend told me this week that they had been talking to a gardener, who works in the UK in summer. He doesn't work many hours, presumably just enough to qualify for tax credits and the like. Then in winter he lives in Spain but manages to still get benefits.

I had a look and wondered if it was for 3 months:

Quote

 

You may get ‘new style’ JSA or contribution-based JSA in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland for up to 3 months if you:

• are entitled to it on the day you go abroad
• register as a jobseeker at least 4 weeks before you leave
• are looking for work in the UK up to the day you leave

https://www.gov.uk/claim-benefits-abroad/jobseekers-allowance

 

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

A friend told me this week that they had been talking to a gardener, who works in the UK in summer. He doesn't work many hours, presumably just enough to qualify for tax credits and the like. Then in winter he lives in Spain but manages to still get benefits.

I had a look and wondered if it was for 3 months:

 

Anything to make it easy for EU citizens to continue fleecing the taxpayer.

[ThoughtCriminal]

He's never wrong. 

 

From 2010. He must be laughing his cock off. 

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Anything to make it easy for EU citizens to continue fleecing the taxpayer.

Sorry I didn't make it clear but he's not an EU citizen, he's British. Presumably this winter he would be limited to 3 months in Spain because of Brexit and the 90 day rule.

[Viceroy]

On 02/10/2021 at 22:40, wherebee said:

 

This was in my interactive brokers information feed:

"Oct 1 (Reuters) - Canadian health officials said on Friday data suggests reported cases of rare heart inflammation were relatively higher after Moderna's <MRNA> COVID-19 vaccine compared with the Pfizer/BioNTech shots <PFE> <BNTX>.
    The data also indicated heart inflammation occurs more often in adolescents and adults under 30 years of age, and more often in males. [nCNWY908Pa]
    The statement from the Public Health Agency of Canada said majority of the affected individuals experienced relatively mild illness and recovered quickly.
    The risk of cardiac complications, including heart inflammation, has been shown to be substantially increased following COVID-19 infections, with the risks higher after the infection than after vaccination, according to the statement.
    The benefits of mRNA shots in preventing COVID-19 continue to outweigh the risks, regulators in the United States, EU and the World Health Organization have said."

(I track Moderna as my canary, no fucking way would I buy it).

So - still trying to say the vaccines are safer than the virus, re heart issues.  Moving from 'EFFECTIVE AND SAFE' to "PARTIALLY EFFECTIVE AND SAFE" to "PARTIALLY EFFECTIVE AND MORE SAFE THAN THE VIRUS" to...

I know what comes next. So does DOSBODS.

Now, interestingly the moderna share price dropped a lot 27/28 september, and then again 30th sept/1st Oct.  The second one, I think, was in relation to the above news (and the Times article).  But the 27/28 drop, which I posted about on here, has all the hallmarks of insider trading.

I'll continue to watch the stock.... 

Armstrong's model has Pfizer & the others as having a sharp turn down in 2022 (Feb)

Private blog - "..Are the Vaccine Companies Heading Into All-Time Highs? - When we look at Socrates, we see that the vaccine companies will peak out by 2022 and crash rather hard thereafter. Even looking at Pfizer long-term, the breakout came in 1991. Even a standard Pi Cycle projects the top in 2022. Strangely, we also have a Panic Cycle in Politics in 2022. It is not impossible that we see that these experimental vaccines will be seen as harmful by the majority next year. .. If this all blows up in their face in 2022, this may not just make the all-time high for the vaccine companies, it can spell disaster for government and accelerate the collapse of confidence globally.."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/vaccine/pfizer-shares-due-to-peak-out/

"Something is very strange when it comes to Pfizer. The rally should not extend beyond 2022 and the two key months ahead will be October 2021 and then February 2022. ...I do not see Pfizer continuing this rally beyond 2022. So if we look at the charts, perhaps the vaccines fail to work, or something is waiting in the wings that will not be positive for Pfizer. "