Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[MrXxxx]

Question: DGE [Market cap £91.5b, current yield 1.85%, PE=33.4] are partway through a share buyback [£4.5b total, done £450m, aim is £1b by end of 2022] and share price is understandably appreciating to an all time high. When would you consider the idea time to trim holdings OR would you keep long-term?

My thoughts/points to consider are as follows, and suggest soon:

 

+ve for share price

1. Christmas is a good time for profits.

2. Additional buybacks will add value month on month.

 

-ve for share price

1. Ex div is Feb 2021 so they will drop a little then [as always].

2. Post Christmas consumer budgets will be tight after Xmas spending.

3. Post Christmas increased taxation i.e NI, Council Tax etc  will have impact.

4. Post Christmas inflation will increase so greater impact.

5. BK more likely?

 

Thoughts?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

added some alexco,minera alamos and kinross calls tonight.There may be a deeper bottom but the value is compelling here in PM miners.

May I ask why those and also why not just say GDX?

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

£25 return. No PCR test needed.

I was merely asked if i had my vaxx at checkin (no one checked), and then i didnt upload my covid vaxx cert for getting the QR code to get into Spain and they just scanned it anyway and let me in.

No more red list countries.

https://www.momondo.co.uk/flight-search/LON-TCI/2021-12-20/2021-12-27?sort=bestflight_a

Yeah that doesn't work if you're a worrier.

a. local cops are OK but Guardia Civil generally regarded by some as fascist cunts - take a look what they did in Catalunya around people wanting to cast a vote aranged by their regional gov not long back.

b. red lists didn't exist the day before they put SA and Botswana on one. It's always a risk as they give very little notice. Surprised no-one has started selling an insurance product to cover this. Against the mood of the day but surely there's money to be made. For me cover would need to be cost of a return before the cut off or cost of 2 week stopover repeated if the stopover country was red listed too.

c. as I recall you've taken the jab so whilst you've played fast and loose with correct paperwork [well done], if they get antsy you'll come out clean and get a slap on the wrist. Different if you're not jabbed ... serious shit ... and I suspect Spanish jails are not like the holiday camps we have in N Europe.

I'd love to go to Spain [increasing dislike for blighty] but think I'll pass for now.

[Eventually Right]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

added some alexco,minera alamos and kinross calls tonight.There may be a deeper bottom but the value is compelling here in PM miners.

Sold my Argonaut Gold today (🤮) and added to Minera Alamos, as well as some NXE for uranium exposure.

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Question: DGE [Market cap £91.5b, current yield 1.85%, PE=33.4] are partway through a share buyback [£4.5b total, done £450m, aim is £1b by end of 2022] and share price is understandably appreciating to an all time high. When would you consider the idea time to trim holdings OR would you keep long-term?

My thoughts/points to consider are as follows, and suggest soon:

 

+ve for share price

1. Christmas is a good time for profits.

2. Additional buybacks will add value month on month.

 

-ve for share price

1. Ex div is Feb 2021 so they will drop a little then [as always].

2. Post Christmas consumer budgets will be tight after Xmas spending.

3. Post Christmas increased taxation i.e NI, Council Tax etc  will have impact.

4. Post Christmas inflation will increase so greater impact.

5. BK more likely?

 

Thoughts?

Love my DGE. It's almost like the BATS of booze, they own some lovely global brands, and the pricing power that comes with that. I've not thought of it as a reflation stock (it's in my "global exposure" fund) but it's starting to perform like one.

Long term hold for me.

[HousePriceMania]

Weird confusing covid message from the French, banning people going to France AND BACK

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-british-tourists-to-be-banned-from-france-amid-rise-in-omicron-cases-12497105

 

Must be rate decision day

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Weird confusing covid message from the French, banning people going to France AND BACK

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-british-tourists-to-be-banned-from-france-amid-rise-in-omicron-cases-12497105

 

Must be rate decision day

theyll be ok, theres a dinghy back every hour they can take, and a free taxi half way.

[Noallegiance]

Bank of England to scrap interest rate rule for mortgages to help first-time buyers (msn.com)

[Craig]

10 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Question: DGE [Market cap £91.5b, current yield 1.85%, PE=33.4] are partway through a share buyback [£4.5b total, done £450m, aim is £1b by end of 2022] and share price is understandably appreciating to an all time high. When would you consider the idea time to trim holdings OR would you keep long-term?

My thoughts/points to consider are as follows, and suggest soon:

 

+ve for share price

1. Christmas is a good time for profits.

2. Additional buybacks will add value month on month.

 

-ve for share price

1. Ex div is Feb 2021 so they will drop a little then [as always].

2. Post Christmas consumer budgets will be tight after Xmas spending.

3. Post Christmas increased taxation i.e NI, Council Tax etc  will have impact.

4. Post Christmas inflation will increase so greater impact.

5. BK more likely?

 

Thoughts?

Definitely a long-term hold. They are the dictionary definition of a defensive stock, but as mentioned above do seem to be hitting a bit of a stride right now. Major focus on China and India at the moment, if they can crack even a tiny portion of those two markets, then the floodgates will open in a massive way.

[HousePriceMania]

Here's the truth behind the Omicron variant me thinks. 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/sunak-urged-to-get-on-a-plane-to-deliver-fresh-support-for-omicron-hit-businesses-12497096

 

There is no recovery, there is only a money printing pyramid scam

[HousePriceMania]

46 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Bank of England to scrap interest rate rule for mortgages to help first-time buyers (msn.com)

I despair, I really do.

There will be no rate rises, there will be more helicopter money.  Covid will be used as an excuse for several years to "help" people. We'll have -ve rates next year as house prices start falling.

 

Where will it all end, big ****ing war.

 

[DoINeedOne]

52 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Bank of England to scrap interest rate rule for mortgages to help first-time buyers (msn.com)

 

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I despair, I really do.

There will be no rate rises, there will be more helicopter money.  Covid will be used as an excuse for several years to "help" people. We'll have -ve rates next year as house prices start falling.

 

Where will it all end, big ****ing war.

 

The last two family members who got mortgages last year got the maximum they could even though it was not needed and both bought average houses with more bedrooms than they needed, so if they are scraping the rule that a borrower needs to be able to afford a 3% point rise in interest rates, They could have borrowed more and they would of

If im understanding it correctly

Im sure that will end well, as one of them keeps moaning about how expensive it is running a home now

 

I can see myself moving abroad not only to buy a home but for the weather too 

[harp]

can I just ask. IF cable does turn against the usd, would getting shares in companies that predominantly get their earnings in sterling be a better bet? 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, harp said:

can I just ask. IF cable does turn against the usd, would getting shares in companies that predominantly get their earnings in sterling be a better bet? 

 

 

Sterling Silver or Sterling FIAT ?

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I despair, I really do.

There will be no rate rises, there will be more helicopter money.  Covid will be used as an excuse for several years to "help" people. We'll have -ve rates next year as house prices start falling.

 

Where will it all end, big ****ing war.

 

Ignore the BOE watch US long bonds.Inflation will stay way higher than rates as they try to take private savings to fund government,but rates will go up.If long bonds rise and BOE doesnt increase inflation will go higher and higher.They are lagging the long bond now by extreme levels.Long bond yields fall or BOE increases rates.I think rates are a side show though in the UK,QE is the big one as its funding a £200 billion structural deficit.They are trying to increase everything 30% with government costs lagging,but structural problems in the economy are stopping it.

[Bricormortis]

Wood pellet burning as at Drax is getting some stick for climate crimes. The charge is it creates 18 % more co2 than burning coal .

The jist of the objection is it zero's itself out on the carbon cycle, but unfortunately this happens over 190 years.  Caroline Lucas is one of various sources of objection. No pleasing her then.

This isn't going to go away either. 

Edit to say it guarantees nuclear, if there was any remaining doubt.

[Craig]

24 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Wood pellet burning as at Drax is getting some stick for climate crimes. The charge is it creates 18 % more co2 than burning coal .

The jist of the objection is it zero's itself out on the carbon cycle, but unfortunately this happens over 190 years.  Caroline Lucas is one of various sources of objection. No pleasing her then.

This isn't going to go away either. 

Edit to say it guarantees nuclear, if there was any remaining doubt.

I'm with Lucas on this one, as those wood pellets should be getting bought by me for use as cat litter...

[HousePriceMania]

33 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ignore the BOE watch US long bonds.Inflation will stay way higher than rates as they try to take private savings to fund government,but rates will go up.If long bonds rise and BOE doesnt increase inflation will go higher and higher.They are lagging the long bond now by extreme levels.Long bond yields fall or BOE increases rates.I think rates are a side show though in the UK,QE is the big one as its funding a £200 billion structural deficit.They are trying to increase everything 30% with government costs lagging,but structural problems in the economy are stopping it.

This you mean

 

I kind of get what you are saying but I am say here wondering if the system is so broken the old rules don't apply and or there is a conspiracy and "you will own nothing" etc is their aim. Look at the Omicron bollocks over the last week or so just as the BoE have no choice but to raise rates, this thing feels as corrupt as f**k to me. 

The uncertainty is the problem for me and the unfairness of the system they have created, this is proper totalitarian shit and it's been coming since Bliar took over, grabbing little bits of freedom and control with each passing year.  I thought Brexit might wake them up but it's full steam ahead with Banker Sunak in control.

Will they raise IRs, yes at some point, but as you say it'll be 5% below inflation so they can rob people and it'll only be when they think their asset bubbles can be supported by the wage rises.  They want a permanently high plateau, max debt in effect.

Is there any way to protect yourself from this, probably not, at least not that I can see.

Out best bet is a proper BK and fill your boots but when the people at the top are willing to rob 70 million people and inflation is immaterial to them then I think that's becoming more and more unlikely without some sort of once in a 200 years type collapse, which I am not ruling out, the US stock market looks bat shit crazy.

So basically, I have no idea what to do now to protect my family and children from the systematic onslaught on our freedoms and finances.

[HousePriceMania]

It's an interest rate hold guaranteed.

They had their meeting last night, some people are more equal than others when it comes to meetings.

 

[WICAO]

Hi everyone

Some of you may remember me from TOS.  Given that I'm in the process of building a home HPC is no longer a relevant forum.  So in search of a new home I've been accepted here by the looks of it.  Came here for this great thread even though my investing style is a little different and currently working for me.

[Noallegiance]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ignore the BOE watch US long bonds.Inflation will stay way higher than rates as they try to take private savings to fund government,but rates will go up.If long bonds rise and BOE doesnt increase inflation will go higher and higher.They are lagging the long bond now by extreme levels.Long bond yields fall or BOE increases rates.I think rates are a side show though in the UK,QE is the big one as its funding a £200 billion structural deficit.They are trying to increase everything 30% with government costs lagging,but structural problems in the economy are stopping it.

It was this that prompted me to post the article about not testing people for higher rates on mortgages.

Conditions are being created that, if they choose to buy, will decimate people as rates rise.

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, harp said:

can I just ask. IF cable does turn against the usd, would getting shares in companies that predominantly get their earnings in sterling be a better bet? 

 

 

From that same thread 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It was this that prompted me to post the article about not testing people for higher rates on mortgages.

Conditions are being created that, if they choose to buy, will decimate people as rates rise.

That's the bit people still believe.

They'll only rise when people can afford the payments then they'll get the bottom of the pyramid people/borrowing even more.

It's a scam, a massive state sponsored scam to what end, power and money.

If you dont own a house it's time to get one, with as much debt as you dare. this is only going one way now.

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

That's the bit people still believe.

They'll only rise when people can afford the payments then they'll get the bottom of the pyramid people/borrowing even more.

It's a scam, a massive state sponsored scam to what end, power and money.

If you dont own a house it's time to get one, with as much debt as you dare. this is only going one way now.

I'm finally getting one.  I joined TOS in 2007 and have rented ever since.  I've now found my home and it's now time to put down roots and build a house and also turn that into a home.

Still no debt for me though.  Just a modest well thought out (hopefully) place and so I'll be paying in bits of paper, the buying power of which is fast being destroyed.

Given my life stage prices can go up, down or sideways for any length of time.  I no longer care.  This is going to be my home for hopefully a long time.

[HousePriceMania]

Couldnt make this up.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/16/turkish-central-bank-cuts-rates-sending-lira-to-record-low.html

 

Turkish central bank cuts rates, sending lira to record low