Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

That Lynn Alden piece was pretty good until she got on to mass extinction and CO2 is going to kill us all.

[spygirl]

IMF tells the Bank of England not to delay raising interest rates

Fund warns in annual review that demand in the UK economy is too strong and inflation will rise to about 5.5%

https://www.ft.com/content/ca15ce59-ca72-497c-bf7a-c1482d972f01

 

And all that being nice to singe parents on 2k/m bennies, and 15m-20m low paid, barely working migrants, using ~30k of public services a years.

Poof - out of the window.

The only silver lining with higher rates is that UKGV is pissing so much money way on propping lazy native bennie class and migrants thats theres a lot of fat to be cut first.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

Is that good or bad news for share prices, maybe they can go up forever, based on higher inflation.

For me though, there are a lot of warning signs of a massive crash·

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

1. "Despite the inherent risk of speculation, it was widely believed that the stock market would continue to rise forever:"

https://www.quora.com/Is-it-correct-to-assume-the-Fed-will-not-let-the-stock-market-go-down

"It's safe to assume that the Fed does not want the stock market to crash. It's safe to assume the Fed won't do anything that they believe will cause a stock market crash."

 

2. "on March 25, 1929, after the Federal Reserve warned of excessive speculation"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469430-fed-issues-stock-market-warning-as-valuations-surge  ( one of many other warnings )

3.  consumers were building up large debts because of easy credit.^[7]

 

4.automobile sales went down

 

 

5. Despite all the economic warning signs and the market breaks in March and May 1929, stocks resumed their advance in June and the gains continued almost unabated until early September 1929
 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-rebound-buying-51634678849?tesla=y

The stock market has rebounded, even as risks that might well be expected to drag it down haven’t gone away. Retail investors are the key to the comeback.

The S&P 500 has rallied 5% from the low point in its recent pullback, hit on Oct. 4.

 

6. many investors regarded the September "Babson Break" as a "healthy correction" and buying opportunity.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-01/retail-traders-stick-to-dip-buying-ways-with-record-purchases

 

 

 

I also read this week that institutional investors are selling heavilty while retail buyers are filling the gap.

BK looking more and more likely as people realise the FED really dont have their back.  I am thinking now BitCoin might be the spark that lights the touch paper now.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

IMF tells the Bank of England not to delay raising interest rates

Fund warns in annual review that demand in the UK economy is too strong and inflation will rise to about 5.5%

https://www.ft.com/content/ca15ce59-ca72-497c-bf7a-c1482d972f01

 

And all that being nice to singe parents on 2k/m bennies, and 15m-20m low paid, barely working migrants, using ~30k of public services a years.

Poof - out of the window.

The only silver lining with higher rates is that UKGV is pissing so much money way on propping lazy native bennie class and migrants thats theres a lot of fat to be cut first.

 

 

It's interesting the the BOE's QE scam is ending just as every one wants to raise IRs.

Maybe they'll be paying off the loans with the higher interest they get lending out the 0.1% money.

[janch]

42 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

We see over time that the Nasdaq outperforms, as tech equities are able to compound value while a commodity cannot.

So Lyn Alden sees tech stocks continuing to outperform whereas @DurhamBorn I think you see them as crashing(??) or have I got it wrong? 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Those tech behemoths are hiding a lot of sins.

[janch]

On 13/12/2021 at 11:23, DurhamBorn said:

The whole thing is about getting tax take to increase quicker than spending.

Is the Omicron variant just a way to slow down the overheating economy so that inflation can start to do its work and slow down spending?  Then they might stand a chance of increasing the tax take fast enough so as to stop the economy from imploding. 

I imagine they will be getting a fair amount of tax from all the probates which are likely to be increasing soon

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, janch said:

So Lyn Alden sees tech stocks continuing to outperform whereas @DurhamBorn I think you see them as crashing(??) or have I got it wrong? 

Maybe not crash,who knows,but given they pay no dividends mostly i cant see them delivering 63% over the next 8 years compounded returns.Flat at best prices would be a terrible outcome for the cycle.Plus when people say "tech stocks" it means nothing.I want to know if Amaon total return beats BP or BT,or Repsol or BAT etc etc.Too much of people covering themselves with a catch all term.

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

The Government came out with a comment along the lines that they might block a foreign takeover.

 

After all that kerfuffle about Huawei and how they could affect national security if they supplied part of our 5G, how could they let foreigners buy BT?

[DurhamBorn]

Maybe he doesnt want to buy BT,maybe he wants BT to do the buying of other telcos and help consolidate the market 

[macca]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Does any of this make sense?

If your double jabbed and someone in your house gets Covid you don't need to isolate?

Even though jabs don't stop you spreading Covid. Are the British population this thick! 

Most deaths are vaccinated people.. 

It's the most blatant attack on the rights of people to choose not to be vaccinated! 

 

[sancho panza]

51 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Those tech behemoths are hiding a lot of sins.

They have been for sometime.

[Underwhelmed]

Just now, macca said:

Does any of this make sense?

If your double jabbed and someone in your house gets Covid you don't need to isolate?

Even though jabs don't stop you spreading Covid. Are the British population this thick! 

Most deaths are vaccinated people.. 

It's the most blatant attack on the rights of people to choose not to be vaccinated! 

 

Yes, unfortunately.

[HousePriceMania]

BoE gives start warning on crypto

 

[JMD]

This guy has now created his own website, and which he is currently populating with his YouTube 'gold' videos. He has recently retired early from being a chemical engineer (maybe @Cattle Prod knows him?!) and his empirical approach on the subject of gold and investing really shows through in his videos. 

Anyway he provides many deep dives, using very short video format, explaining his thesis that investors should use gold as a key portfolio asset allocation/plus his belief that gold is a crucial hedge against a future monetary collapse. 

Evidence Based Wealth

 

 

[Sidd]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

...and gold goes down >1%, obviously

Gold is not reacting positively to anything. I want out of some of my miner positions, but I stubbornly will not sell as its worth is overwhemlingy undervalued IMO, given all thats happened in the last year. I would rather wait the years out if need be.

I feel like a monumental DXY decline will need to happen for any serious upwards move and not sure what will trigger that. Dave H thinks it will just go up in its own time but without the rocket fuel I dont see how it sustains that, because every push up gets smacked back down.

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Gold is not reacting positively to anything. I want out of some of my miner positions, but I stubbornly will not sell as its worth is overwhemlingy undervalued IMO, given all thats happened in the last year. I would rather wait the years out if need be.

I feel like a monumental DXY decline will need to happen for any serious upwards move and not sure what will trigger that. Dave H thinks it will just go up in its own time but without the rocket fuel I dont see how it sustains that, because every push up gets smacked back down.

Gold seems to be at a bottom to me, we are just waiting for a catalyst.

US looks set to raise debt ceiling by 2.5 trillion USD. Maybe this will be the start of the DXY move.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I don't want to thread derail so please nobody respond to this.

 

I STRONGLY urge everyone interested in covid to watch this 90 second clip from Joe Rogan featuring Dr Peter McCullough. He's the guy who came up with the covid treatment protocol that's having great success.

 

He outlines how the curious lack of treatments offered for covid were actually part of the plan to get everyone to take the vaccine. Most explosive of all, he says the covid vaccine was being developed BEFORE the outbreak.

 

He's not a nut job, he cites papers and sources for everything, more thorough than anyone I've seen.

 

Again, please don't reply and apologies to anyone not interested, I just felt very strongly about this. Can't urge enough that you watch the full episode.

 

Him and Rogan need to check their car brakes. 

 

I second that, I followed and used to pass on to family and friends the early treatments and reports about the effectiveness of Zinc and Hydrodoxicloriquinne from Korea due to their effectiveness in the beginning and couldn’t understand why it was being vilified. (my partner has been on it for years due to Lupus)

I followed Peter McCullough and others and the suppression is hard to ignore.

Here is a list of other prominent medical professionals that are experts in the field that has spoken out and I would encourage anyone to do some research

• Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, epidemiologist, Stanford University
• Dr. Sunetra Gupta, infectious disease epidemiologist, Oxford Univ.
• Dr. Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist, Harvard
• Dr. Robert W. Malone, inventor of mRNA technology platform
• Dr. Peter A. McCullough, former Vice-Chair Int. Med., Baylor Univ.
• Dr. Didier Raoult, microbiologist and director, IHU Méditerranée Infection; Professor at Aix Marseille Université
• Dr. Harvey A. Risch, Prof. Epid., Yale School of Public Health
• Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, biometrician, 20-year head, biostatistics/epid., Rockefeller University
• Dr. Michael Yeadon, former VP of respiratory research, Pfizer.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

IMF tells the Bank of England not to delay raising interest rates

Fund warns in annual review that demand in the UK economy is too strong and inflation will rise to about 5.5%

https://www.ft.com/content/ca15ce59-ca72-497c-bf7a-c1482d972f01

 

And all that being nice to singe parents on 2k/m bennies, and 15m-20m low paid, barely working migrants, using ~30k of public services a years.

Poof - out of the window.

The only silver lining with higher rates is that UKGV is pissing so much money way on propping lazy native bennie class and migrants thats theres a lot of fat to be cut first.

 

 

 

Additionlly the IMF warns the UK may have to bring back the furlough scheme amid the Omicron threat!

 

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Additionlly the IMF warns the UK may have to bring back the furlough scheme amid the Omicron threat!

 

 

As if Sunak and Boris need encouraging.

[stoobs]

6 hours ago, macca said:

If your double jabbed and someone in your house gets Covid you don't need to isolate?

Even though jabs don't stop you spreading Covid. Are the British population this thick! 

Most deaths are vaccinated people.. 

I agree with you on the isolation rules, they don’t stand up to scrutiny.

But for the deaths figures, it is just that the vaccinated population is much larger than the unvaccinated population.

If you roll 95 red dice and 5 blue dice, you would expect far more red sixes than blue sixes. If you’re getting less than 19 times more red sixes than blue sixes then you’d assume something was different between the red and blue dice, such as the red dice have been modified to reduce their chance of landing on a six.

[XswampyX]

31 minutes ago, stoobs said:

I agree with you on the isolation rules, they don’t stand up to scrutiny.

But for the deaths figures, it is just that the vaccinated population is much larger than the unvaccinated population.

If you roll 95 red dice and 5 blue dice, you would expect far more red sixes than blue sixes. If you’re getting less than 19 times more red sixes than blue sixes then you’d assume something was different between the red and blue dice, such as the red dice have been modified to reduce their chance of landing on a six.

I like your analogy. Red dice & blue dice...

After fiddling with your red dice for two years you are back exactly where you started.

The last TWO years have been a complete waste of time and effort as we now enter winter with a new strain that nobody has any immunity to.

Fiddle, fiddle.... Clickety click click.

[stoobs]

4 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

After fiddling with your red dice for two years you are back exactly where you started.

The last TWO years have been a complete waste of time and effort as we now enter winter with a new strain that nobody has any immunity to.

Quite possibly, yes.

It looks like Omicron is becoming the dominant strain in the UK around about now, then add 3 weeks for those infections to result in deaths, then another few weeks for clear indication in the weekly summaries.

So maybe in late January we’ll learn whether the current vaccines improve your chance of being alive to ever see another BoE interest rate rise.

[XswampyX]

Just now, stoobs said:

So maybe in late January we’ll learn whether the current vaccines improve your chance of being alive to ever see another BoE interest rate rise.

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Actually this one:

(I will have a look at your notes though)

Good video, but its title/thesis is to prescriptive imho. The presenter criticises government for undermining the workings of free markets, and which are fundamental for capitalism to function. Although I'd agree with that statement, I think the more general but crucial point is that the larger the state becomes, the more centralised/inefficient decision making becomes, and the more it diminishes the free markets and capitalism. At what stress point capitalism is caused to 'break' I couldn't say.                                                                                              Plus the US, of all places, has been manipulating markets for a long time... And not only its financial markets, for example back in early 80's it bailed out Chrysler with a massive 20 year interest free loan... It seems the car company was too big to fail!!