Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

24 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

It's probably because TPTB and those with links to them know the West is going to have more deaths this winter than any other for decades due to the medium term consequences of these 'vaccines' starting to show up.

I don't share your outlook. Maybe markets are reacting to the Omicron scare, which I don't think will last long. The lack of deaths will be hard to hide within weeks.

It is bizzarre how BJs broadcast and a slew of newspaper front pages have conjured a crisis out of nowhere, just like the empty petrol stations a while back. Once it ripples through to economic activity the party donors will start shouting, and the narrative will go into reverse.

[nirvana]

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

It's probably because TPTB and those with links to them know the West is going to have more deaths this winter than any other for decades due to the medium term consequences of these 'vaccines' starting to show up. This would also explain Boris' panic and the seemingly ridiculous push to try and get everyone boosted with another shot of the same 'vaccine' that has already been escaped by Omicron Like I said a few weeks ago, I'd set your stop losses to keep as much profit as you can from the lows of 2020 as IMHO I think we will see them again and then some in the next 6 months as another UK wide lockdown is 99.9% certain within weeks and that will be the least of the issues our 'recovery' will be dealing with

I know the jabs have been described as a "no brainer" in here and for some reason we aren't supposed to discuss covid, even though the markets seem to take notice of it - but here goes. I think we only see the 2020 lows in the next 6 months if they admit the jabs don't work. I don't think the jabs do work but I can't see them admitting it. I also don't think we are as high as 99.9% certain to have a UK wide lockdown in 6 months. Obviously the people who had the Astra Zeneca jabs could be in a very bad place this winter, if Omicron turns out to be any worse than a mild infection (or not just an excuse to cover up that the jabs have buggered people's immunity). Just one link, it shows in particular why those who had AZ jabs could be in trouble via the negative efficacy chart (Figure 1.) and that explains why Corporal Boris Jones is creating booster panic.

https://www.rintrah.nl/the-problem-with-a-spike-based-vaccine-induced-immune-response/

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

I learned a long time ago that markets generally have stuff priced-in before it happens, saw 1% drop across my spread over the weekend but full expect to be back where I was by Friday.

[sancho panza]

On 12/12/2021 at 20:50, Cattle Prod said:

On my phone Sancho so the scales are bad but it looks like the ratio was about 40% lower at the Brown's Bottom (when Central Banks were dumping gold on the market, let's remember), and about 4x at the 1980 bull market peak, 2 x at the 2011 bull market peak.

Thanks for that.I've had a look around and macrotrends has a bespoke chart for this but I'm unsure on how steady teh denominator is and agree M2 is prefereable.

Also,I've taken the chart from roughly jsut before Bretton woods Aug 71 which is the key date for me.

Msut say,I think this makes the case quite well.Happy to accumulate at these levels.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2485/gold-to-monetary-base-ratio

 

[sancho panza]

On 12/12/2021 at 20:50, Cattle Prod said:

On my phone Sancho so the scales are bad but it looks like the ratio was about 40% lower at the Brown's Bottom (when Central Banks were dumping gold on the market, let's remember), and about 4x at the 1980 bull market peak, 2 x at the 2011 bull market peak.

Here's teh flip of that.I'm not expecting anything like Browns bottom again.

Aslo  anice explanation of how low velocity can all of a sudden lead to rising inflation.I've said before- during discussions led by @Harley about behavioural economics ayear or two back-that I think there's a real potential for a nasty inflation spike when joe public realises their moeny is devlauing quicker than they can spend it.I'm not saying it will happen,jsut that the psychology of consumers could turn on a sixpence.

At the moment,their response to rising prices is to spend less frequently,when they realsie that the act of waiting to spend means they will be able to buy less,then I think we're in a different era.

Already at work I'm hearing people talk about high fuel prices.could happen ina heart beat.

https://vaulted.com/gold-vs-money-supply/

[ThoughtCriminal]

.

[Hunty]

The price of AU is exactly where they want it to be until expiry date.

But my sentiment is Apeish from end of January 2022.

 Until then watch the Banks load up on physical.

Miner's are cheap but I do think we are in the midst of a sector rotation.

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Agreed. TPTB must surely see the necessary changes looming ahead?

...Rhetorical question... So where is the emergency cross party political debate/preparation being had? I accept i'm probably being unfair on the politicians, particularly as most institutions all around us are failing - with childrens' protection services and Yorkshire Cricket being the latest 'news examples' (btw, not being flippant, instead i rather think these represent moral and social institutional failures which tragically cannot be fixed by throwing more money).   

...Instead we get rubbish (Maoist?) mantra like '...save the NHS', which i fear is just code for advance warning of the coming Covid war-time economy, along with many other conveniently introduced types of austerity(controls?) shortages; or maybe such slogans are being used to soften the nation up and prepare us for 'emergency privatisations', in order that the country can quickly conjure up health supply, without having to create yet more state debt. 

Its interesting,but i think now its highly likely they know what we know and they are simply buying time.Once the cats out of the bag they have a choice.BOE stops monetizing the entire welfare budget + ,or we see a sharp move lower in sterling and inflation moves even higher.They are desperate for inflation and QE to lift the tax take,but there are structural issues that are making that difficult,mostly around welfare being far too high,and lots of the few hard workers deciding to work less or not at all.

Something has to give in the end.I think seeing it as a war time economy is fascinating.

[DurhamBorn]

Should add here,all those Dogecoin to the moon youths are all now well underwater who bought from April.They will no doubt be shouting to buy the dip etc.

[Chewing Grass]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are desperate for inflation and QE to lift the tax take,but there are structural issues that are making that difficult,mostly around welfare being far too high,and lots of the few hard workers deciding to work less or not at all.

That reminds me, over 2021 I've worked at 87.2% of my pre 2021 norm, this was triggered by the HRT threshold staying where it is for years.

In fact thanks to the government I now view purchases/stuff in the amount of hours work required too purchase said items after tax.

It does rather change your perspective of money.

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Should add here,all those Dogecoin to the moon youths are all now well underwater who bought from April.They will no doubt be shouting to buy the dip etc.

I think we have seen the BTC top for this halving, and the popular S2F/PlanB model has broken. When BTFD turns to panic it could well be biblical!

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

That reminds me, over 2021 I've worked at 87.2% of my pre 2021 norm, this was triggered by the HRT threshold staying where it is for years.

In fact thanks to the government I now view purchases/stuff in the amount of hours work required too purchase said items after tax.

It does rather change your perspective of money.

It does indeed.I was offered a job at Fujifilm making the new vaccine,in any normal situation it would of been a win/win.They get GSK experience and able to sort the plant in a few days of getting hands on,i get good salary etc.

I told them i only work up to £12.5k a year now as no point earning more in the UK,so i work a 3 to 4 months a year.I said due to Sunaks policy of freezing IHT and the pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even put in my pension.

Im an outlier of course,but i know several others doing the same,mainly as they are in IHT.Even one of my partners workmates is on the sick until the sick pay stops and is leaving to retire because she is well over IHT.

Pincer movement of tax being far too high against benefits far too high.Tipping point has or is being reached.

[sancho panza]

On 12/12/2021 at 10:17, DurhamBorn said:

She will make the best PM since Thatcher i think,if she gets it.You have to look loyal to the government until the right moment.The Ides of March.

As someone who got elevated to the top 1.5% of punters on betfair with the cash we made politcal betting,I'd have to say my moeny's with you there.

I'll never vote tory again-no hard right/libertarian alternative I'm not voting(currently I'd rather vote for Corbyn than the current regime which is saying something given I'm likely one of the first people the hard left would hang methaphorically speaking)

Truss has kept quiet during covid.Talking to crews last night,the scepticsim is growing,it's a while till it filters further out to the broader communirty but it will and by then the pfizer whistelblower stuff will be out there and joe public will go from vaxxer to anti vaxxer in a few days.Ergo,she's played a quiet game and is well psotioned to take out Boris.

Since I got moved to betfair premium,I've pretty much stopped betting but I'd be tempted by Truss's odds,once in race,I wouldn't go now.

Sunak won't make it-he'll be too clsoely associated with the public health disaster of the last two years..the rest are non runners imho.I thinkt eh grey sutis will plump for someone who can distance themselves from the current mess(my hunch is that there will be some covid vaccien horror stories oer the next few years)

Marekt clearly not liquid and I wouldn't take much directionnfrom the luqidity as it stands.A few hudnred quid can buy you pole positon

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

As someone who got elevated to the top 1.5% of punters on betfair with the cash we made politcal betting,I'd have to say my moeny's with you there.

I'll never vote tory again-no hard right/libertarian alternative I'm not voting(currently I'd rather vote for Corbyn than the current regime which is saying something given I'm likely one of the first people the hard left would hang methaphorically speaking)

Truss has kept quiet during covid.Talking to crews last night,the scepticsim is growing,it's a while till it filters further out to the broader communirty but it will and by then the pfizer whistelblower stuff will be out there and joe public will go from vaxxer to anti vaxxer in a few days.Ergo,she's played a quiet game and is well psotioned to take out Boris.

Since I got moved to betfair premium,I've pretty much stopped betting but I'd be tempted by Truss's odds,once in race,I wouldn't go now.

Sunak won't make it-he'll be too clsoely associated with the public health disaster of the last two years..the rest are non runners imho.I thinkt eh grey sutis will plump for someone who can distance themselves from the current mess(my hunch is that there will be some covid vaccien horror stories oer the next few years)

Marekt clearly not liquid and I wouldn't take much directionnfrom the luqidity as it stands.A few hudnred quid can buy you pole positon

Id vote for them again if we get right of centre policy,plus my MP has voted against Boris several times and will do so tomorrow.If she continues like this then she will deserve my vote.I happen to think Liz Truss has the potential to be a superb PM.She would wipe the floor with Sunak who has delivered nothing but left wing policy.Gove isnt leader material.I have a good bit on Liz at 21s and 16s.Boris and the cabinet are destroying the party and will need to be stopped soon.

Labour are a joke of course.They could of brought the government down tomorrow, but seem clueless.

[sancho panza]

On 12/12/2021 at 18:37, JimmyTheBruce said:

I'm in the same situation.  Hope we both make it,would be gutting if it came and went before the funds are in

Is there some sort of cut off looming,forgive my ignorance ref SIPPS

23 hours ago, JMD said:

You may be right about Liz Truss. However I still think Kwasi Kwarteng, despite his recent trip ups, is a more serious politician and with better conservative instincts. I note that Kwarteng, Truss, Raab and Priti Patel were all co-authors in 2010 of a conservative document that layed out various new policy thinking, including for a contribution based social/welfare system. Not a coincidence I think that all were part of the 2010 parliamentary intake and that all now find themselves at centre of government. I agree Boris's days are numbered but his replacement should I think be serious and articulate, and Truss is neither. But I am ignorant of conservative party internal politics and accept that the deciding factor will be how popular the next contender is with the voting conservative party membership. 

What you'll get and what's best for the country are two very separate things.

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could see Truss getting it and the others getting key positions like you say.Id also expect some red wall intake up there.My MP keeps voting against the government,rightly so.Welfare and councils,civil service etc all need gutting.My partner phoned me in tears last night from work.First time ever thats happened.A 95 year old man had fallen all the way down the stairs,his leg was snapped and the bone sticking out,bleeding out slowly.The ambulance took forever and my partner had to try to simply keep him warm etc.Highest tax in history,yet you cant get an ambulance to a 95 year old.Plenty of diversity officers though.

BOE stopping QE will be the trigger for lots of changes.

The isntruemnt sof govt are slowly declinign.I saw a Jordan pereterson video from 5 years ago the other day,where he said,the esiest way to take people's liberties is 2 millimetres at a time......how right he was.

The institutions of the UK are crumbling.The military is a shadow of itself and couldn't manage the inner cities let alone another Afghan/Iraq.

The police have takent eh path of least risk and stuck to persecuting coffee drinkers/dog walkers/non mask wearers etc rather than targeting the real scumbags.I get it,it's easier,safer and looks better for the front page of the Daily Mail.

The NHS is being run down imho so that it sets up nicely for a Boris style,'the NHS is can't cope but Pfizer have a solution for £xxx.....'.

The vaxx mandate is going to make everything worse.Already the care homes can't accept patients from hospital because they don't have staff.Soon the hospitals will be facing the same fate.Don't get ill this winter.

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Ummmm ...

 

 

What coud he know?

[sancho panza]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id vote for them again if we get right of centre policy,plus my MP has voted against Boris several times and will do so tomorrow.If she continues like this then she will deserve my vote.I happen to think Liz Truss has the potential to be a superb PM.She would wipe the floor with Sunak who has delivered nothing but left wing policy.Gove isnt leader material.I have a good bit on Liz at 21s and 16s.Boris and the cabinet are destroying the party and will need to be stopped soon.

Labour are a joke of course.They could of brought the government down tomorrow, but seem clueless.

Our local Tory MP isn't the kind you get in Red Wall seats.She's classic London cut.Sadly,she's far more likely to get in cabinet as she's got  fat majority.

My moeny says Truss but I'd hedge Gove.People like himand Hancock have this unerving ability to survive despite the fact that noone admits to liking them.Ergo I'd make moeny if Sunak loses that's the real bet so lay sunak I guess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alicia_Kearns

Kearns grew up in Cambridgeshire, and attended a comprehensive school, Impington Village College.^[3] During her teenage years, she was a member of the UK Youth Parliament and an activist for Amnesty International.^[4] She studied social and political sciences at Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge, graduating in 2009.^[3] During university, she participated in student theatre productions.^[5]

Kearns has worked in communication roles at the Ministry of Defence (MOD), Ministry of Justice (MoJ), and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). She was the lead press officer for MOD's contribution to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign, and the government's communication campaigns in Syria and Iraq for the FCO. At the MoJ, she worked as the Victims' Minister's press secretary. Kearns became the client services director for the strategic communications consultancy Global Influence in 2016.^[6][7] She later became an independent consultant

 

[sancho panza]

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/12/13/wholesale-price-inflation-in-germany-totally-blows-out-highest-in-the-data-going-back-to-1962/

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Wholesale prices in Germany – an indicator of what is further up in the pricing pipeline for consumers and businesses – spiked by 16.6% in November, from a year ago, the worst increase in the data going back to 1962, and up from 15.2% in October, and from 13.2% in September, the German statistical office Destatis reported today:

Germany’s surging consumer price inflation has also been brushed off with the infamous “base effects,” including those linked to the VAT reductions in 2020. The Fed too had brushed off the US inflation with the “base effect.” But sooner or later, these excuses are going to run out of base effects, and in Germany this will happen January 2022, when inflation pure and simple will be seen just raging on its own.

The ECB, with an eye on the Fed, has been even more reckless in talking away the inflation that is now raging in many parts of Europe. But given the recent data, and given the U-Turn by the Fed on inflation, the ECB will likely but gradually and far behind even the Fed acknowledge that this is a massive problem that won’t just go away on its own.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/12/09/central-banks-in-latin-americas-largest-economies-grapple-with-raging-inflation-brazil-with-shock-and-awe-mexico-with-an-eye-on-the-fed/

Bank of Brazil faces an even bigger inflation fiasco.

Consumer price inflation in Brazil in October jumped to 10.7%, approximately matching January 2016, which had been the highest since 2003. November’s reading will be released on Friday, and it’s likely very ugly, in light of what Mexico experienced.

This inflation started to take off in late 2020 and hasn’t looked back since. Blamed for the November jump were the usual suspects, fiscal stimulus, supply chain woes, a weaker currency, and severe droughts.

Consumer price inflation in Mexico spiked in November even more than the already high expectations, to 7.4%, from 6.2% in October, the red-hottest inflation since January 2001, according to Mexico’s INEGI today. The Bank of Mexico’s target range is 3.0%. Inflation is now surging broadly across the economy, with the core inflation (without food and energy) hitting a 20-year high of 5.7%:

 

[jamtomorrow]

8 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I think we have seen the BTC top for this halving, and the popular S2F/PlanB model has broken. When BTFD turns to panic it could well be biblical!

I've always thought mempool is an underrated bull/bear indicator for BTC. Mempool is where transactions are stored if there's more demand than the network can process, so in the rarefied world of crypto it's about as close to a "fundamental" as you'll get.

Mempool says this halving's bull ended in May:

[spygirl]

The return of inflation: crunch time for the European Central Bank The ECB has sounded more dovish than most central banks. But rising prices and Covid are putting it under growing pressure

https://www.ft.com/content/e01ce60c-f602-4110-bb64-7fd60689b099

As Christine Lagarde unveiled plans last week to redesign euro banknotes for the first time since their launch two decades ago, the European Central Bank president said they were “a tangible and visible symbol that we stand together in Europe, particularly in times of crisis”.

Talk about fiddling whilst Rome burns.

Or just making up pointless make-work work.

Like the way her wrinkly scarf camouflages itself into her wrinkly face.

 

 

[wherebee]

Isn't that Lurch from the Addams family>?

[wherebee]

well, just closed out my CNA position.  Made 600 quid, after trading costs, on 3000 in.  OOOOH mamma.  The scottish share?  I shit in it's mouth and demand a reach around.

[HousePriceMania]

See BT is being taken over

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ftse-100-live-14-december-patrick-drahi-increases-bt-stake-to-18-bt-takeover-speculation-november-unemployment-figures-end-of-furlough-scheme-b971791.html

 

Share price just fell 5%.

 

WTF !!!

[geordie_lurch]

BT is showing as -6.66% on HL for me just there and is not far from my stop loss for banking some profits now

Ignoring the ominous 666 figure, do we reckon the price is likely to climb if this guy buys the shares off Deutsche Telekom as per the following?

"BT’s second-largest shareholder, Deutsche Telekom, holds a 12pc stake. If Mr Drahi were to buy this stake, he would hit the 30pc threshold at which a takeover offer must be tabled."

Some more from the Telegraph in case anyone doesn't have time to look into it:

"Billionaire Patrick Drahi has increased his stake in BT, tightening his grip on the telecoms giant and fuelling further speculation of a takeover bid.

The French tycoon, who rattled BT by taking a 12.1pc stake in June, has now bought a further 585m shares, taking his stake to 18pc – worth more than £3bn.

It marks the first move by Mr Drahi since a six-month moratorium on further share purchases expired on Saturday."

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

BT is showing as -6.66% on HL for me just there and is not far from my stop loss now

Ignoring the ominous 666 figure, do we reckon the price is likely to climb if this guy buys the shares off Deutsche Telekom as per the following?

"BT’s second-largest shareholder, Deutsche Telekom, holds a 12pc stake. If Mr Drahi were to buy this stake, he would hit the 30pc threshold at which a takeover offer must be tabled."

Was surprised to see it fall at all.