Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Apparently this company has just defaulted on its debts due to evergrande defaulting on money it owed them.

 

Interesting to see if this is isolated or the first domino.

[moneyscam]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

And yet it's only 22% above the dotcom peak when priced per unit of M2:

 

The FANGS have been a great hedge against monetary inflation. MSFT is a quality company, the NASDAQ as a whole isn't even there yet (hence DH meltup to come?):

When they roll over, there is going to be some move into gold and commodities.

Great charts. This is the more sensible way of looking and judging where we are rather than the simple price in fiat without adjusting whatsoever for what has been happening to the volume of fiat. We should be looking at these weekly / monthly regularly on here.

Where are you getting the charts from? If it's a website please post the link as there are a few other markets I would like to look at this way.

[HousePriceMania]

The inflation figures coming out of the US are so bad they might have to raise IRs 0.1% 

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Apparently this company has just defaulted on its debts due to evergrande defaulting on money it owed them.

 

Interesting to see if this is isolated or the first domino.

It's contained, $100M loss for someone is fine.....

[ThoughtCriminal]

18 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's contained, $100M loss for someone is fine.....

This is on top of a previous 200 million missed payment............

[Noallegiance]

55 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is on top of a previous 200 million missed payment............

It's OK.

There's a jab for that.

[HousePriceMania]

The brutal truth behind trading patterns (for normal people).

[spygirl]

Fucking Hell

https://www.ft.com/content/f355feab-e9f0-4dfc-bcd7-1759983dfb16

US inflation hits fastest annual pace since 1982

Consumer price index rises 6.8% in November, intensifying pressure on White House as it seeks support for spending plan

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

10 years ago I said cash was trash and what did I do.......nothing!

Telsa is actually 100 times less crazy than bitcoin!

Agreed, but unfortunately their own CEO - and part-time Twitter savant - Elon Musk, is 100x more crazy than Tesla! ...swings and roundabouts I suppose?! 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Another scary chart

 

Any idea what it means

Don't know what it means, but that 87% degree slope looks particularly unstable... 'She can nae take any more Captain/Biden/Powell/Yellen !!!'

[ThoughtCriminal]

First time I've seen Dave H respond to criticism of his call timing.

[Viceroy]

I do like reading DH but Armstrong has called this ‘the most hated bull market in history’ for a reason. Back in 2017 the DOW was 23,000+

 

[CannonFodder]

I think I first saw DH talking of the bust in next few months in 2016, that post above from 2017 implies there was a few years before.

Personally think bust happened in mar 20 and in rear view mirror, cycle changed then 

Could be wrong of course, could be a W shaped double bust

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I think I first saw DH talking of the bust in next few months in 2016, that post above from 2017 implies there was a few years before.

Personally think bust happened in mar 20 and in rear view mirror, cycle changed then 

Could be wrong of course, could be a W shaped double bust

 

Posted this the other day - looks like 17/9/2020 was when something blew up, is that the bust or the visible effects that happened afterwards (Genuine question)

[CannonFodder]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

 

Posted this the other day - looks like 17/9/2020 was when something blew up, is that the bust or the visible effects that happened afterwards (Genuine question)

I.m not sure, I.m not that clever.

Some random thoughts.

Lots of people with benefit of hindsight will look back and look at various graphs to say how obvisious things were but in reality they werent

Lots of youtube twitter pundits like saying big bust or big boom, slow grind down over 10 years doesnt sell views and ad revenue

Assumptions that everything will move at once, could go sector by sector, country by country. Lebanon, turkey debts being inflated away as we speak, Pakistan, India, brazil, russia also going strong, Uk could go pop before US perhaps?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Lots of people with benefit of hindsight will look back and look at various graphs to say how obvisious things were but in reality they werent

The only thing not obvious is 'when'! 

The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain interested/sane 

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

The only thing not obvious is 'when'! 

The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain interested/sane 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/warren-buffett-why-bubbles-happen-115100990.html

There,s so much truth in this, nothing stays the same forever. There will be a stampede, but with different countries demograhics and debt, will it all go at once in same direction.

Those who get caught up in it will suffer, the poor will struggle then the agitators and demagogues will arrive.

I Started reading on TOS as i wanted a cheap house, now i think i should go long beans and shotguns, no ETF, just physical

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

the poor will struggle then the agitators and demagogues will arrive.

Almost certainly, and we get to watch it all happen with foreknowledge.  

 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Viceroy said:

I do like reading DH but Armstrong has called this ‘the most hated bull market in history’ for a reason. Back in 2017 the DOW was 23,000+

 

In fairness without the corona bug (and the unprecedented stimulus) we would probably be 12+ months post BK by now. Anyone's timelines would be pushed back by that.

[ThoughtCriminal]

The fact this isn't even close to being the most bonkers thing out there speaks volumes.

 

Missed earnings left, right and centre and up they go, up 430 billion in 19 days.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The fact this isn't even close to being the most bonkers thing out there speaks volumes.

 

Missed earnings left, right and centre and up they go, up 430 billion in 19 days.

Yep, and here's me buying fucking defensive stocks.

 

[Hancock]

39 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The fact this isn't even close to being the most bonkers thing out there speaks volumes.

 

Missed earnings left, right and centre and up they go, up 430 billion in 19 days.

Ive got a Huawei P20 pro which is over 3 years old, and recently i ordered a Google Pixel 6 (for the dual sim) as it was on offer for £444, but it was no better than what i've got so i sent it back.

Surely by now people have stopped renewing phones annually like they once did.

[Castlevania]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive got a Huawei P20 pro which is over 3 years old, and recently i ordered a Google Pixel 6 (for the dual sim) as it was on offer for £444, but it was no better than what i've got so i sent it back.

Surely by now people have stopped renewing phones annually like they once did.

Yes they have. So Apple simply put up their prices.

[Axeman123]

A lot of confusion caused by people missreading DJUA in the above tweet as DJIA, and thinking DH is predicting a multi-week pullback in broad indices. I think this is deliberate by DH, to gauge sentiment.

Thoughts anyone?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

A lot of confusion caused by people missreading DJUA in the above tweet as DJIA, and thinking DH is predicting a multi-week pullback in broad indices. I think this is deliberate by DH, to gauge sentiment.

Thoughts anyone?

I think he means NASDAQ composite not 100 too