Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

Just now, Loki said:

I think he means NASDAQ composite not 100 too

I will give him the benefit on one point, copying his text in as a new tweet just now shows it is one character short of the max permitted. So he couldn't really clarify, unless he had split his points over two tweets. Still, very sloppy communication unless it is intentional to get a reaction etc.

[mcdongle]

18 hours ago, JMD said:

As you bought the subject up McDongle, what is the actual story there in New Zealand? Is it a health panic (whether it be genuine or imagined!?) by the Maori people to keep themselves safe from covid, or is it an oppotunistic 'power grab' by Maori community leaders in order to gain more self determination from central government.                                                                                                                                                                                     Maybe above question is bit off topic for thread... but can I think be argued that above scenario is example of hard community dislocation, and similar is probably coming here soon with Scotland, then N.I., and then Wales breaking away. Sad situation, yes - but the harsh reality is that the loss of 10 million uneconomic people from the 'UK' would be great benefit for us 'Little Englanders'!!                                                                                  (Btw, I actually wanted Scotland to stay at last referendum, but tbh I am now past caring, just tired of continual criticism/xenophobia? from Scotland, etc, toward the English; ...plus please be assured Mr McDongle that none of this is aimed at you, just saying as am unaware of your ancestral heritage?!) 

Well i am on the south island so a long way away, But i see it as both, People are scared of catching covid, Keep those Aucklanders out, and there are certain people who would like more power. Dont want to get too deep into this because its complicated and its Durhamborns thread. Its going to be interesting to see how long the queues are on the roads.

And i was born in Southampton so no worries.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Yes they have. So Apple simply put up their prices.

I haven't bought a new phone since 2015.  

I now need to get a new one, as a number of the 2-factor authoritisation apps are starting to not work without the latest OS version, which won't run on the old phones (we have a few).

Very sneaky.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

A lot of confusion caused by people missreading DJUA in the above tweet as DJIA, and thinking DH is predicting a multi-week pullback in broad indices. I think this is deliberate by DH, to gauge sentiment.

Thoughts anyone?

Surely he means the DJIA.  Why would he focus on utilities?  I will review data at the weekend.  Gut says pullbacks yes but 10% is a nothingburger given where we are (and over several weeks!) and really sufficient as a base for a melt up?  Regardless, silly to rely on such stuff (but good for background).  I do my own analysis.

[Innkeeper]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

I haven't bought a new phone since 2015.  

I now need to get a new one, as a number of the 2-factor authoritisation apps are starting to not work without the latest OS version, which won't run on the old phones (we have a few).

Very sneaky.

Interesting, as I have a phone of similar age but I don’t use apps for authorisations so am not aware of this problem.  

This sounds like a good reason to continue not using the apps!

[Castlevania]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

I haven't bought a new phone since 2015.  

I now need to get a new one, as a number of the 2-factor authoritisation apps are starting to not work without the latest OS version, which won't run on the old phones (we have a few).

Very sneaky.

Yeah. That’s an issue I’m now seeing. I have an IPhone 6 (originally bought at launch and then replaced with refurbished ones via mobile phone insurance on several occasions) and Apple have capped which operating system you can use. So the latest versions of some Apps don’t work. I’m sure it’s deliberate.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

Interesting, as I have a phone of similar age but I don’t use apps for authorisations so am not aware of this problem.  

This sounds like a good reason to continue not using the apps!

problem is you have to to access a number of tools which my clients use.  At least the cost of a new phone is tax deductible.

[SpectrumFX]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

problem is you have to to access a number of tools which my clients use.  At least the cost of a new phone is tax deductible.

At this point I think it's sensible to have more than one phone.

I've just got a Nokia flip which is Kaios and doesn't do more than basic apps, and those not very well. But it's 4g and can work as a hotspot. I'll use this as my main phone, and take an Android phone with me (working off the flip as a hotspot) as and when I think I'll need one. It can be turned off if I don't need it on.

[wherebee]

6 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

At this point I think it's sensible to have more than one phone.

I've just got a Nokia flip which is Kaios and doesn't do more than basic apps, and those not very well. But it's 4g and can work as a hotspot. I'll use this as my main phone, and take an Android phone with me (working off the flip as a hotspot) as and when I think I'll need one. It can be turned off if I don't need it on.

yeah, I think you are right.  I think a cheap android, up to date, is next.

[Option5]

13 minutes ago, wherebee said:

yeah, I think you are right.  I think a cheap android, up to date, is next.

Brain the size of a planet and I suppose you'll  be wanting to use me as a wireless hotspot.

Life, don't ........

[Animal Spirits]

Cathie Wood Was
Last Year’s Hottest
Investor. But Is
There a Lesson for
Her Fans in a
Forgotten 1990s Icon?

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1qwqqwwhrv78f/Cathie-Wood-Was-Last-Year-s-Hottest-Investor-But-Is-There-a-Lesson-for-Her-Fans-in-a-Forgotten-1990s-Icon#.YannBSk-lPM.twitter

"However, chasing the most recent top performers is a recipe for disaster for investors. Both individual and institutional investors alike are similar in their propensity to engage in this behaviour, and the investment returns for both are the worse for it".

[AWW]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah. That’s an issue I’m now seeing. I have an IPhone 6 (originally bought at launch and then replaced with refurbished ones via mobile phone insurance on several occasions) and Apple have capped which operating system you can use. So the latest versions of some Apps don’t work. I’m sure it’s deliberate.

Speaking as someone who works in tech, it's not to force you to upgrade your phone - it's because, as the software becomes more advanced, it needs more powerful hardware to run it, and as the software implements new features, it may require specialised hardware only available in later models.

Apple are actually pretty good, as tech companies go, in releasing updates for old hardware. An iPhone 6 is now 7 years old. Good luck getting a free update to the latest software version for most other tech as old as that.

[AWW]

It's one of the reasons they maintain their value better than other makes of phone. I've found the cheapest thing to do is buy a 2-generation old phone and keep it for a year or two, then sell and upgrade. That 2 to 3 generation period of "ageing" seems to be the sweet spot in terms of avoiding loss of value.

[Axeman123]

14 minutes ago, AWW said:

Apple are actually pretty good, as tech companies go, in releasing updates for old hardware.

For balance though, they also release updates that throttle older phones' performance whenever they have a newer model out. They assert this is to extend the life of ageing batteries, but there are a lot of people who think this is just to drive upgrades.

16 minutes ago, AWW said:

Good luck getting a free update to the latest software version for most other tech as old as that.

My 2013 PC upgraded to windows 10 when I replaced the HDD a year or so back.

[AWW]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

For balance though, they also release updates that throttle older phones' performance whenever they have a newer model out. They assert this is to extend the life of ageing batteries, but there are a lot of people who think this is just to drive upgrades.

I thought that was to prevent crashes when older batteries couldn't support the peak power requirements of the hardware? Have to confess haven't looked into it very deeply, but I am aware that you can turn it off in the settings.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

I thought that was to prevent crashes when older batteries couldn't support the peak power requirements of the hardware? Have to confess haven't looked into it very deeply, but I am aware that you can turn it off in the settings.

Yeah, I am not 100% either. I do remember some scandal about Apple doing the throttling secretly, denying it, then claiming it was for people's own good. I beleive they were also sued for doing it in the EU. The option to disable throttling was introduced after all this, and users didn't have the claimed problems when doing so. 

[Axeman123]

13 hours ago, Harley said:

I do my own analysis.

100%, I just see DH etc as a jumping off point for my own thinking. 

13 hours ago, Harley said:

Surely he means the DJIA.  Why would he focus on utilities?  

Pretty much everyone thought that, but further down in the comments...

[Jesus Wept]

A stupid question but would appreciate an answer if anyone knows. 
 

I bought some Telefonica SA a few weeks ago and it’s now showing up on my H&L account as this:

No online dealing and the value has been removed from my account. 
 

I’ve checked the ‘key’ at the bottom and I’m none the wiser. I’ll call them Monday but was hoping for a quick answer. @DurhamBorn you have some TELEFONCIA SA - has the same happened to you? 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

A stupid question but would appreciate an answer if anyone knows. 
 

I bought some Telefonica SA a few weeks ago and it’s now showing up on my H&L account as this:

No online dealing and the value has been removed from my account. 
 

I’ve checked the ‘key’ at the bottom and I’m none the wiser. I’ll call them Monday but was hoping for a quick answer. @DurhamBorn you have some TELEFONCIA SA - has the same happened to you? 

Nothing,thats the rights issue shares you get instead of the divi,late December it will remove itself and you will get one new TEF share for each 26 rights unless you elect to take cash,dont though.Once the shares arrive you can simply have more TEF shares,or sell the shares you got extra and have the cash from them,that way avoiding 19% withholding tax on Spanish dividends.

The RTS in the name means rights.

[Jesus Wept]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Nothing,thats the rights issue shares you get instead of the divi,late December it will remove itself and you will get one new TEF share for each 26 rights unless you elect to take cash,dont though.Once the shares arrive you can simply have more TEF shares,or sell the shares you got extra and have the cash from them,that way avoiding 19% withholding tax on Spanish dividends.

Thank you so much @DurhamBorn

Still learning. 
 

Everything is wrapped in ISAs - but I will take the shares. I’ll keep an eye on it. 
 

Top man. 👍 Thought I’d had a very expensive lesson…. Phew ! 
 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Jesus Wept said:

Thank you so much @DurhamBorn

Still learning. 
 

Everything is wrapped in ISAs - but I will take the shares. I’ll keep an eye on it. 
 

Top man. 👍 Thought I’d had a very expensive lesson…. Phew ! 
 

Its actually better to get the divi as rights as it avoids 19% tax,they can only do it while they have treasury shares though.Iv been keeping the shares the last few times,but i havent decided this time if to keep them or sell.Im thinking about directing all dividends into silver now for a while,for smaller holdings though a good way to build position at these prices,i expect a 200% cycle return from them from here including dividends.

[DurhamBorn]

Telefonica - Stock Dividend

Your holding of 6,784 Shares within your SIPP

 

What is happening?

 

Telefonica recently announced details of a Stock Dividend to Shareholders as at close of business on 30 November 2021 with a cash option, giving you the right to receive additional Shares or a cash payment. As a holder of Telefonica Shares in your Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP you have been issued with one Right for each Share held at the qualifying time and now have 6,784 Rights.

 

What are my choices?

 

You now have 3 options to consider relating to the Rights and these are explained below in more detail.

 

Option 1 - Do nothing - DEFAULT. If you do not return an election by the deadline below and take no action you will receive 1 New Telefonica Shares for every 26 Rights held. The issue of New Ordinary Shares will not be subject to Spanish withholding tax. Any Rights that are not converted into New Shares i.e. not multiples of 26, will lapse and a cash payment will be made in their place. The New Shares are expected to be issued from 29 December 2021. Please note that if you choose this default option then you will not receive any further correspondence and this message should be treated as confirmation of your New Shares.

 

Option 2 - You can receive a cash payment. If you elect for this option by our midday on Wednesday 15 December 2021 deadline you will receive a cash payment of EUR0.148 per Right. The proceeds will be subject to a 19% Spanish withholding tax, i.e. you will receive EUR0.11988 per Right after tax. Cash proceeds are expected from 29 December 2021 and will be converted to Sterling by our Currency Department upon receipt subject to the prevailing exchange rate at that time and standard currency service fees.

 

You can make an election to receive the cash payment online by clicking on your SIPP in the ‘My Accounts’ section of our website. Please then select the dark blue Corporate Actions Icon alongside your Telefonica SA Dividend Rights and follow the online instructions provided.

 

Option 3 - You can sell your Rights. If you elect for this option by our 4:30pm on Wednesday 15 December 2021 deadline you will receive the prevailing market price of the Rights at the time of the sale subject to our standard telephone dealing fees. The proceeds of the sale will not be subject to Spanish withholding tax. You can only elect for this option by telephone on 0117 980 9800. N.B. we are unable to accept instructions to sell your Rights that are sent via the Corporate Actions section of our website or by email and such instructions will not be executed. No guarantee can be given that a market will continue to exist for these Rights until the 4:30pm Wednesday 15 December 2021 deadline. If we are unable to sell your Rights you will receive Shares under the default option (Option 1) instead.

 

If you have any queries regarding this matter please contact us here. Please note our staff can provide factual assistance but cannot provide advice about which option you should choose.

 

Yours sincerely

 

Andrew Smart

Corporate Actions

[Jesus Wept]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telefonica - Stock Dividend

Your holding of 6,784 Shares within your SIPP

 

What is happening?

 

Telefonica recently announced details of a Stock Dividend to Shareholders as at close of business on 30 November 2021 with a cash option, giving you the right to receive additional Shares or a cash payment. As a holder of Telefonica Shares in your Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP you have been issued with one Right for each Share held at the qualifying time and now have 6,784 Rights.

 

What are my choices?

 

You now have 3 options to consider relating to the Rights and these are explained below in more detail.

 

Option 1 - Do nothing - DEFAULT. If you do not return an election by the deadline below and take no action you will receive 1 New Telefonica Shares for every 26 Rights held. The issue of New Ordinary Shares will not be subject to Spanish withholding tax. Any Rights that are not converted into New Shares i.e. not multiples of 26, will lapse and a cash payment will be made in their place. The New Shares are expected to be issued from 29 December 2021. Please note that if you choose this default option then you will not receive any further correspondence and this message should be treated as confirmation of your New Shares.

 

I’ll just do nothing then.

thanks again for taking the time to educate those on here who require it. 👍

[Joxer]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

I’ll just do nothing then.

thanks again for taking the time to educate those on here who require it. 👍

Check your inbox in HL and you should have got the same message about the rigtts issue

[BadAlchemy]

This has cheered me up on a dark winter day with silver and the miners in the doldrums!....

https://silverseek.com/article/undersupplied-silver-follow-base-metals-deficit

A report from the 'Silver Institute', with some interesting charts and stats, predicting a supply deficit over the coming years in industrial metals. Mentions causes such as the push for EV/green infrastructure and risks from 'resource nationalism' in LTAM countries (e.g. see Peru and Hochschild), and lack of investment to replace old mines with new (sounding similar to discussions on here wrt oil/gas supply squeeze).

Interesting, and I did not know until now that silver supply (and price moves) correlates strongly with copper (and zinc/lead etc) as over 50% of it comes as a byproduct of mining those metals rather than from primary silver mines.

Long-ish article but  conclusion/summary as follows...

"Conclusion

A billion ounces of silver demand this year is expected to outpace silver supply leaving a 7-million-ounce deficit — the first in six years.

Last year due to covid-related mine closures, production from primary silver mines fell 11.9%, silver output from lead-zinc mines declined 7.4% and silver from gold mines shrunk 5.7%. Silver output from copper mines actually increased 3.5% (data from the 2021 World Silver Survey).

This year could be quite different. While mines are no longer closed due to covid and therefore are expected to regain 2020’s lost output, there are other challenges ahead. As we have identified, they include a steadily increasing supply-demand gap for copper, with a 3.8Mt deficit predicted by 2025; supply shortfalls in other base metals including zinc and nickel due to a lack of new projects; and resource nationalism in Peru, the world’s second-largest copper producer and the third-biggest miner of silver, behind #1 Mexico and #2 China. Major copper miners (with silver by-products) Chile and the DRC could also see resource nationalism affect silver production.

Continued supply constraints on silver, when combined with robust industrial and investment demand, are likely to power silver higher heading into the new year and beyond.

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com"