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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stoobs said:

On the subject of cash, in case you missed it the BoE set a date for taking the remaining paper notes out of circulation.

It's next September, but if anyone had built up an emergency stash in pre-Covid times it might be worth checking if you need to start offloading any of the older notes.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/20-pound-note

Also worth bearing in mind some retail establishments are jumping the gun and getting funny about the paper £20s. I've had them "declined" in a couple of places last few months.

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Sasquatch

Sasquatch

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Also worth bearing in mind some retail establishments are jumping the gun and getting funny about the paper £20s. I've had them "declined" in a couple of places last few months.

Good point. I cleared out my last few recently. I'm trying to pay with cash as much as I can when out and about. Our local shop owner loves to take cash rather than card. She'd probably be totally at home on dosbods....

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

I bought a load yesterday and had bought some earlier ladders at 25 and 26. Bought this for the divi yield and because I saw 25 as the current bottom that's held for the last 3 years. My stop loss would be @25 but I am liking the current chart and so will hold for the foreseeable.

I'm certainly not selling any of mine.  I'm just keen to get a solid low before buying more and am happy to lose a few points to confirm.  I started buying a while ago so have had some losses in the past.  But overall the monthly chart and div is IMO attractive unless something silly happens.  Regardless, my point was the similar pattern in a number of stocks so I'm on the look out for signs of a general "make or break".  This one is overall encouraging if it holds.  The current political theatre could be a good test of its strength.  I have several other stocks I'm keen to rebuy at these lows from my past profitable 50% sell downs.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Also worth bearing in mind some retail establishments are jumping the gun and getting funny about the paper £20s. I've had them "declined" in a couple of places last few months.

Ta for that.  Panic!  But then reading the link sounds like "just" the paper £20 and £50, not the polymer ones.

I've been through this before and had to go to the BoE in London to exchange them.  They were quite inquisitive and kept records as my partner went in later and they mentioned I had been in already!

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Gin

Gin

Posted
Posted

I was paid for work I did recently with five paper £50 notes . I froze for second or two . Accepted them but stayed outside the customers house while I frantically googled for info.

The only test I knew was if you rub £50 or £20 paper notes on white paper and the ink bleeds off , they are probably real ( sounds counterintuitive I know) Plus look for the watermark .

I spent a couple of the £50`s over two weeks at my local petrol station run by an Indian guy who told me he can tell them apart just by feel if they are real or not .  Didn`t bat an eyelid .

My wife spent one in the local pawn shop buying earrings as they don`t accept visa.

Yes seems September 2022 is the cut off , but banks will still accept them after that.

I naively went into Barclays to change a £50 note quite a while back and the cashier told me I have to pay it into my account and only then could I withdraw it.

Shit those were the days when you just popped into a bank to get some change . I felt like a dinosaur .

o.O

 

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Unfortunately that is my current bet, not only does the state survive it becomes larger, stronger and all encompassing. I look back at the last 2 years and the supine compliance of the masses and I despair. Sometimes I wish was I was born as a Kalahari bushman, far away from civilization in the desert only worrying about hunting my food for today and banging the missus upon my return.

It's never too late to be a Kalaharian bushman There's no point later in life regretting what you haven't done. Here's some land for you:

spacer.png

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mcdongle

mcdongle

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, wherebee said:

yes and no.  they recently announced they were spinning off part of their business to merge with Woodside, to create a pure oil and gas company.

Lets BHP pretend to be 'green' whilst keeping the profits in the pockets of the execs and connected shareholders.  I have woodside holdings and am quite pissed off at this, as BHP has gone pretty woke in recent years and I sold my BHP because of that - now the fuckers are back

https://www.bhp.com/about/our-businesses/woodside-bhp-merger

Ah maybe i misunderstood as i thought the woodside shares were all going to be given to BHP shareholders

Distributing shares – on completion, new Woodside shares (expected to comprise approximately 48% of all Woodside shares post issue) will be distributed to BHP shareholders. The new Woodside shares will be distributed to BHP shareholders as an in-specie fully franked dividend (see Q&A for more information).

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, mcdongle said:

Ah maybe i misunderstood as i thought the woodside shares were all going to be given to BHP shareholders

Distributing shares – on completion, new Woodside shares (expected to comprise approximately 48% of all Woodside shares post issue) will be distributed to BHP shareholders. The new Woodside shares will be distributed to BHP shareholders as an in-specie fully franked dividend (see Q&A for more information).

last time that happened i got some thungella shares for free, i read a story telling me they were worthless so i immedaitely threw quite a few grand at them, and wahhay they shot to the moon.

 

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MrXxxx

MrXxxx

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

fascinating discussion today.Have to do school run .I will retunr.

 

note to self: post macrovices Rosenberg podcast

Here you go, I listened to it today [mp3.macrovoices.com/mvmp3player.php?mp3=https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/download/x8qfvs/MacroVoices-2021-12-02-David-Rosenberg.mp3]

OR

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-podcasts

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wherebee

wherebee

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Harley said:

As I was saying......I see BATS has bounced off a developing upward sloping trend line this month with a big move week to date.  The third higher low on the monthly chart.  The weekly momentum indicators signalled a likely move but I'm not 100% sure how solid that'll be, although I've often be caught out like this recently such are the markets.  I passed on a buy as I already held some and was pulling back overall given the overall market picture.  The monthly candle looks good for a potential turn but that weekly picture is a concern as is the monthly price action resembling a smaller version of the one following the 2018 crash, and also the velocity of the move.  Maybe a good canary stock?  I should at a few others.  Just for comment, defo not advice, DYOR.

PS:  Goes ex div on the 23 Dec so I better not wait too long!

 

FYI - I make it ex-div on 17th Dec, divvies paid 23rd.

DYOR as usual.

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jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted

SMR seemingly trundling along, and lining up to rebuild some of the country's capital backbone as it goes (by which I mean real productive capacity, not funny money on a spreadsheet):

https://www.mtdmfg.com/news/rolls-royce-smr-signs-mou-with-sheffield-forgemasters/

Rolls-Royce SMR signs MOU with Sheffield Forgemasters

Digging for background, turns out I'd missed the bit where Forgemasters was nationalised and is now part of the MoD. Which is of course bang on @DurhamBorn's long-standing forecast - Government steps in and rebuilds the country's industrial backbone:

https://news.sky.com/story/sheffield-forgemasters-is-nationalised-to-secure-supply-of-defence-components-12366129

Question is, are they capable of thinking bigger - *much* bigger - in terms of ambition and scope? Government needs to get out in front of sentiment on that score, I'm not seeing it yet.

With the possibility of structural change pulling the rug from under international energy markets, national energy security would be first, second and third on my list. US export ban lolloping into view? How mad can it get?

 

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, wherebee said:

FYI - I make it ex-div on 17th Dec, divvies paid 23rd.

DYOR as usual.

Interesting, not what TradingView says.  But it has previously given bad dates if you look at the weekly or monthly charts.  I'll investigate.

Update:  Investing.com agrees with TradingView.  Where are you seeing 17Dec21 please?

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sleepwello'nights

sleepwello'nights

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Harley said:

Interesting, not what TradingView says.  But it has previously given bad dates if you look at the weekly or monthly charts.  I'll investigate.

Update:  Investing.com agrees with TradingView.  Where are you seeing 17Dec21 please?

Dividend data shows: Declaration date 17-Feb, Ex Div 23-Dec, Payment Date 9-Feb

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/exdividenddate.py?m=ftse100

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feed

feed

Posted
Posted

Go-Ahead shares to be suspended amid rail contract fallout

(Alliance News) - Transport operator Go-Ahead Group PLC on Thursday said it has apologised to the UK government after admitting to errors and failings in the way it ran the Southeastern rail franchise.

However, Go-Ahead still faces a potential fine, and its shares will be suspended from trading at the start of the new year, as its review of the situation means it will miss the deadline for publishing its results.

Go-Ahead shares were down 21% at 555.50 pence early Thursday in London.

Go-Ahead said the review of London & South Eastern Railway franchise with the UK government found that "serious errors" were made by LSER in its dealings with the Department for Transport over several years.

Go-Ahead said it has accepted that by "failing to notify the DfT of certain overpayments or monies due to the DfT, LSER breached contractual obligations of good faith contained in the franchise agreements." As a result, the company has apologised to the DfT.

The government department is considering enforcement action, Go-Ahead said, including a financial penalty.

Go-Ahead promised to enhance "certain aspects" of its corporate governance in order to better safeguard and assure compliance obligations of complex long-term rail contracts.

Go-Ahead also has delayed annual results due next week until January, so that auditors Deloitte can consider the implications of the LSER review. As result of missing the deadline for publication, shares will be suspended from trading, starting January 4.

Go-Ahead said it expects adjusted operating profit for the rail division to be ahead of previous expectations, partly due to the accounting treatment of some non-recurring items. Expectations for the company's bus divisions are unchanged, it said.

By Tom Waite; [email protected]

Copyright 2021 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Have the dominoes started to topple.

Sssssshhhhh

Just put your mask on will ya?

31 minutes ago, Harley said:

WTF, GOG down 22% atm.

Wow. Glad I sold at a small loss last month.

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