Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Why didn't the know last month 

The gov propaganda dept informed the comrades not to raise issue with it. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

What the fuck have Canada been doing? 

[Harley]

Saw this.....

Canadian pension fund invest $300 million into UK's Octopus Energy, forms partnership

(Reuters) - Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) has made an initial $300 million equity investment in Britain's Octopus Energy Group as part of a long-term strategic partnership, the firms said on Friday.

The investment and partnership with Octopus Energy was made through CPP Investment's Sustainable Energies Group, which aims to increase its level of committed capital over time to support Octopus' global expansion, they said.

The funding will support Octopus' Kraken technology platform for deployment of smart energy and enable the addition of 30 more wind turbines to Octopus' energy portfolio, they said.

The deal follows a recent investment of $600 million by Generation Investment Management, an investment fund co-founded by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore,

The latest investment brings Octopus Energy Group's valuation to approximately $5 billion, it said.

Octopus Energy supplies energy to over 3 million customers in Britain and in September took over customers of failed supplier Avro Energy.

The company is also active in Germany, the United States, Spain, Italy, New Zealand and Japan.

CPP Investments is one of the world's largest pension funds, managing 541 billion Canadian dollars ($425.41 billion), with its Sustainable Energies Group having invested approximately 19.5 billion Canadian dollars in global energy assets, including renewables, utilities, and power generation.

So went to the Octopus website.......

Agile energy offering: https://octopus.energy/agile/

Smart tariff: https://octopus.energy/go/

Exporting: https://octopus.energy/outgoing/

I see this as the future, the real reason for smart meters.  I've avoided smart meters so far because of this (I ignore people who are not being upfront) but now I have a battery store.......!  Not for now though, I'll wait for some market stability while hiding out in my current fixed deal.

PS:  "A significant part of Octopus Energy's profit and revenue comes from licensing their proprietary customer management system called Kraken.....In March 2020 it was announced that E.ON and its Npower subsidiary had licensed the technology......Kraken was also licensed to Australia's Origin Energy as part of their May 2020 agreement.  Kraken also has strategic partnerships with Hanwha Group and Tokyo Gas.  In 2021 the number of accounts supported by Kraken was reported to be 17 million".  

[ThoughtCriminal]

Pretty sobering numbers.

 

Tesla's as batshit crazy as bitcoin. 

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Pretty sobering numbers.

Tesla's as batshit crazy as bitcoin. 

10 years ago I said cash was trash and what did I do.......nothing!

Telsa is actually 100 times less crazy than bitcoin!

[HousePriceMania]

31 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Tesla's as batshit crazy as bitcoin. 

I started selling out again today, top sliced everything that was in profit and hope to get rid of 50% of my holdings now before End of Jan.

I dont think a BKK can be far off now.  I have a 6 figure sum sat waiting for the collapse.  might as well hold that as long as it takes because it's coming.

1 minute ago, Harley said:

10 years ago I said cash was trash and what did I do.......nothing!

Telsa is actually 100 times less crazy than bitcoin!

What do you say now ?

Bubble in trouble ?

[leonardratso]

theyll be as fast and steep on the way down at some point, law of gravity etc

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

theyll be as fast and steep on the way down at some point, law of gravity etc

I meant to add some context to that Microsoft chart

If this aint a bubble then what is 

 

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Isn't DH saying he expects the dollar to strengthen very strongly in the bust as people flock to the safe haven status of the dollar giving it a final hurrah before a slow decline into the ground. He's mentioned a few times he sees treasuries and the dollar as holding up well through a BK. Difficult one doing the forward planning on where to hide during a BK, we going to get some sort of steep correction at some point even if it's not a crazy 70% down. 

As I understand it,DH and most punters would be long $ is a BK.Makes sense.We had an excellent discussion on here some 3000 pages ago about the USD having one last crisis in the sun and I'd still agree with that thesis in a BK.

 

It's more the whereafter that the two differ.DH sees rising commodity prices,dollar losing it's hegemony.The implicit assumption on DR's part (and one that I've had to come to terms with ) is that the dollar holds it's primary reserve status.That's the only conclusion you can take from DR(and many other deflationists stance).

DH (and many others on here eg @DurhamBorn)I think,looks more broadly at the economy as a function of the society that underpins it and take on board the potential political issues that might influence it.That's soemthing I've reflected on as the deflationary events of the 40 years have all been underpinned by the dollar maintaining it's place at the centre of the world economy.

That's where I fear DR may be missing the elephant in the room.

Anotehr issue DR where DR may lack understanding is the commodity sector. We've been schooled by @Cattle Prod on here about supply side issues in the oil sector to the point where Mrs P's eyes start rolling if I mention coning issues in Saudi wells to anyone.I fear that many deflaitonists see oil supply as being as flexible and able to meet demand eventually as it has since WW2.With 7bn world population,and growing,I think they're worng.

 

But the reality is that the world's population is 7bn and there's a limtied supply in some sectors and

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

As I understand it,DH and most punters would be long $ is a BK.Makes sense.We had an excellent discussion on here some 3000 pages ago about the USD having one last crisis in the sun and I'd still agree with that thesis in a BK.

 

It's more the whereafter that the two differ.DH sees rising commodity prices,dollar losing it's hegemony.The implicit assumption on DR's part (and one that I've had to come to terms with ) is that the dollar holds it's primary reserve status.That's the only conclusion you can take from DR(and many other deflationists stance).

DH (and many others on here eg @DurhamBorn)I think,looks more broadly at the economy as a function of the society that underpins it and take on board the potential political issues that might influence it.That's soemthing I've reflected on as the deflationary events of the 40 years have all been underpinned by the dollar maintaining it's place at the centre of the world economy.

That's where I fear DR may be missing the elephant in the room.

Anotehr issue DR where DR may lack understanding is the commodity sector. We've been schooled by @Cattle Prod on here about supply side issues in the oil sector to the point where Mrs P's eyes start rolling if I mention coning issues in Saudi wells to anyone.I fear that many deflaitonists see oil supply as being as flexible and able to meet demand eventually as it has since WW2.With 7bn world population,and growing,I think they're worng.

 

But the reality is that the world's population is 7bn and there's a limtied supply in some sectors and

I thought that @DurhamBorn ignored the politics, insisting that the politics always followed the economics (something with which I have always struggled)?

Apologies if I have got this wrong.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Wow 

 

I know history is supposed to rhyme rather than repeat, but that's the kind of thing you bookmark in your mind as a potential red flag.

 

I watched big short again this week, and we tend to forget that it didn't happen over night, took a long time to unravel.

Quite.The marekts move at the margins first and you have to watch the signals.Northern Rock and Bear were teh two that time.Oil price peaked three motnhs later.

We remain long and have had to move my BK plan to the right some as I wait for teh signals to move me short.

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

What the fuck have Canada been doing? 

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/17/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-pause-after-bank-of-canada-ends-qe-starts-unwinding-its-balance-sheet/

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

What the fuck have Canada been doing? 

Going left wing.

[sancho panza]

11 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I thought that @DurhamBorn ignored the politics, insisting that the politics always followed the economics (something with which I have always struggled)?

Apologies if I have got this wrong.

I shouldn't have spoken for DB,so I apologise.But to me,if you're analysing the UK or any economy for that matter, you have to take on board for example,the fact that our welfare state is growing and the tax base that funds it is shrinking.You have to assess the political will to change that societal direction and include it in your positioning.

Similarly,you can't jsut look at the hsouing market and the leverage in the banking system that underpins it,in isolation.You have to factor in whether there is the politcal will to clamp down on it and change the direction of travel in monetary policy.This is the big thing I failed to do 2002 to 2016 and have benefited from that reflection as an investor/trader.Eventually you see that the politicians become victims of the previous govts monetary policy because once you're ona certain path,noone wants to take the big decision to change it.So then the politics does follow the economy and that's where we are.

I tend to find deflationists-like I used to be-look at the economy too narrowly and don't factor in future obligations when trying to gauge how govts will react.

The best analogy I can give from an economic point of view is that many neo classical economists don't factor levels of private debt into their modelling.Seems hard to believe but they don't.They sjut analyse govt spending,consumer spending and govt debt.Never mind that private debt plays a major role in determinign tax takes and consumer spending.

[Sue Lowe]

Should we be considering another asset class altogether? 

The Guardian: Investing in Lego more lucrative than gold, study suggests

Quote

It found that the market for secondhand Lego rises in value by 11% annually, which it says is a faster and better rate of return than gold, stocks, bonds, stamps and wine.

And that's before the price of plastics go through the roof!

(Apologies for the G etc)

[sancho panza]

Captain Bojo looks to have run out of road.

He needs to bring in a vaccine mandate for private companies to really sink the ship.Get it over with.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ons-uk-economy-slows-to-crawl-october-as-gdp-coronaviru-085341002.html

UK economy slows to a crawl in October as GDP rises just 0.1%

 

LaToya Harding

·Business Reporter

Fri, 10 December 2021, 8:53 am

 

 

GDP grew by just 0.1% in October, below the 0.4% that economists had forecast, new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Photo: Richard Baker / In Pictures via Getty Images

The UK economy almost flatlined in October, adding to worries about the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

New data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed that GDP grew by just 0.1% in the month, below the 0.4% that economists had forecast, thanks to ongoing supply chain disruptions and staff shortages.

This remained below the pre-pandemic level of 0.5% in February 2020, and suggests that the UK economy was struggling even before the discovery of the Omicron variant

“Growth disappointed in October, reinforcing concerns about the resilience of the UK’s economic recovery to the Omicron variant and the impact of further restrictions,” Alpesh Paleja, CBI lead economist, said.

“We need to create consistency in our approach and build confidence by reducing the oscillation between normal life and restrictions as we learn to live with the virus and its variants.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “We’ve always acknowledged there could be bumps on our road to recovery, but the early actions we have taken, our ongoing £400bn economic support package and our vaccine programme mean we are well placed to keep our economy on track.''

However, businesses are warning that the government’s new Plan B restrictions will mean a further hit for growth and affect jobs unless the Treasury provides more support, including the restart of the furlough scheme to help hard-hit sectors.

As part of the new measures announced this week by UK prime minister Boris Johnson, people must work from home where possible from Monday, and face masks will be a legal requirement in most public indoor areas such as theatres and cinemas from Friday.

However, there will be exemptions for eating and drinking in hospitality venues.

Vaccine passports will also be needed to attend large, potentially crowded venues such as nightclubs from next week.

[HousePriceMania]

This ought to put a few over the edge

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59599310#comments

 

Households in England face 'double-whammy' tax rise next year

[feed]

38 minutes ago, Sue Lowe said:

Should we be considering another asset class altogether? 

The Guardian: Investing in Lego more lucrative than gold, study suggests

And that's before the price of plastics go through the roof!

(Apologies for the G etc)

As someone who has bought and sold lego for nearly 10 years and is sat on about £50k in stock.  All I will say is the last time the press ran Lego is better than gold, it was a solid buy signal for gold.  
 

[HousePriceMania]

Another scary chart

 

Any idea what it means

[Majorpain]

23 hours ago, harp said:

Silver shitting the bed! Must of been listening to that Hunter chap 

Whilst JPMUK still has 1Bn oz of Ag to mess with the market, they can put the price where they like.

They love to manipulate the paper price lower so they can make money shorting and get cheap physical metal.  Static prices are bad for business, as is steadily rising prices as the plebs might get the idea they can make some money off it!  

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

What do you say now ?

The whole system is trash.....and I'm starting to do something!

[DoINeedOne]

I like this Canadian politician guy seen a few videos by him 

 

 

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

I meant to add some context to that Microsoft chart

If this aint a bubble then what is 

 

This chart, and the other of the S&P and M2, explain the current pandemic inspired gyrations better than anything else.

[leonardratso]

hmm, think ill just do nothing while it all spirals into the abyss, might scratch my balls now and then.

[Sugarlips]

Let’s go Brandon.. 6.8% 🚀 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/10/inflation-november-cpi-fed-biden/

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

58 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

And yet it's only 22% above the dotcom peak when priced per unit of M2:

 

The FANGS have been a great hedge against monetary inflation. MSFT is a quality company, the NASDAQ as a whole isn't even there yet (hence DH meltup to come?):

When they roll over, there is going to be some move into gold and commodities.

That's just confirming that QE has massively benefitted tech.

 

It doesn't change the fact it's a huge bubble.