Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Chewing Grass]

I think the markets know the coof is nearly over, my SIPP for the last 3 days has returned daily gains more than my monthly pay, its like its on steroids, just waiting for the to go poof.

[JMD]

17 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Is it a taxable event?

I don't think so, ie 'fully franked dividend'?    ...I was reading the info from this link...                https://www.bhp.com/about/our-businesses/woodside-bhp-merger

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

For @durhamborn 

 

Its incredible isnt it how they miss such simple things.Its like for every $1 pulled from coal investment needs $100 for wind yet the MSM and polos seem to think its all 1 for 1.Its why my cross market work really delivers a lot of the time.The greatest need for energy in a cycle for multi decades yet the companies went on the floor .

[HousePriceMania]

 

I've no idea what this means really but that's a shit load of red but the indexes keep going up...so I  guess the big green ones are covering up a falling market.

[BurntBread]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

I've no idea what this means really but that's a shit load of red but the indexes keep going up...so I  guess the big green ones are covering up a falling market.

Look at how relatively small the foundations of the economy are: our sectors, like energy, industrials, basic materials. There's a lot of froth outside those sectors in that picture.

This kind of thing, as well as that crazy index of "loss making tech companies" (that sounds like a great ETF to invest in!), and CP's "what the FANGMAN hides", does make it look like late 1999. The small cap crap is withering on the vine, but you can't see it in the indexes because of the large cap crap. Grantham's (?) "confidence termites" gnawing away, out of sight.

I also listened to the Rosenberg Macrovoices podcast, and what he is saying is not that dissimilar to David Hunter, but zoomed in, in terms of time-scale. Rosenberg could be describing the BK at some points in that interview. Obviously his longer-term view is at variance with DH, but they could both be roughly harmonised for the next 12 months.

 

[mcdongle]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Victory brand you say? Strange times certainly lay ahead...  meanwhile...                                                                            Jacinda Adern from Minitrue tweets - '...our Goodthink policy is Fullwise Doubleplusgood!!... see you all at Joycamp.'

Sorry joycamp is cancelled due to the Maori blockade of Northland to keep out covid

[mcdongle]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Is it a taxable event?

• 7. Will there be any tax implications for BHP shareholders when they receive Woodside shares?

  On completion of the merger, BHP shareholders will receive a dividend (in the form of Woodside shares as an in-specie fully franked dividend – see above explanation).

  Like with all dividends, BHP shareholders will be subject to a taxing event when they receive the Woodside shares.

  
  For BHP shareholders who are Australian tax residents - the dividend (Woodside shares) grossed up for franking credits must be included in your assessable income.

  The franking credits can be used to offset any tax payable on the dividend. 

  
  For BHP shareholders who are non-Australian - the dividend (Woodside shares) will not be subject to Australian withholding tax. 

  Demerger relief will not be available for BHP or BHP shareholders. You should always obtain appropriate professional advice relevant to your circumstances.

   

[Erewhon888]

For those interested in "the most hated sector":

Gammon interview of Ronnie Stoeferle (In Gold we trust)

[HousePriceMania]

I think this man has a point....

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

One of my better buys, obviously really when the loons are pushing all electric everything.

 

National Grid plc

1,049.00 GBX+799.06 (319.70%)all time

9 Dec, 16:39 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: NG

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I also listened to the Rosenberg Macrovoices podcast, and what he is saying is not that dissimilar to David Hunter, but zoomed in, in terms of time-scale. Rosenberg could be describing the BK at some points in that interview. Obviously his longer-term view is at variance with DH, but they could both be roughly harmonised for the next 12 months.

 

The big difference between DH and DR is price inflation.DH is open to it as a possibility.Where I think DR is missing an important point is that for his deflationary call to endure through the BK and then out the other side,you would the $ to maintain it's spending power

If we look at every recession since the second world war,and use that as our sample then he's right.The problem is that this time it might be different,the Fed has printed trillions and been the buyer of last resort for UST's.

I think DR gets a lot of things right but the implicit assumption that the dollar holds is a dangerous one.He advocates buying the long bond amongst other things eg gold.During every market rout of the last 50 years they've generally been a good place to hide but they're also very exposed if he's wrong and the Fed keeps printing and buying UST forcing yields down whilst at the same time foreigners abandon the dollar.A not impossible scenario here as it would see declining real rates in the US and a falling dollar.

Possible ? I don't know but not a trade you'd want to beon the wrong side of if unhedged.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Oh fuck........

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Oh fuck........

That cunt looks like he's been let out the mental asylum on day release and escaped from his nurse.

Put the twitter down and walk away from it!

[sancho panza]

57 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Oh fuck........

Ina all honesty,I haven't been worried about direction until this moment.Scary when JIm's sayin all's well.

Jim Cramer March 11th 2008-'Bear Stearns is fine,Bear Stearns is not in trouble,keep your moeny at Bear Stearns'

March 17th 2008

[sancho panza]

@ThoughtCriminal  Now this is spooky and I mean spooky...............I was sjut doing my rounds on my normal twitter feeds and thought,'I'll jsut check DDMB',ahven't checked her in a while.

 

and what is she psoting about.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The big difference between DH and DR is price inflation.DH is open to it as a possibility.Where I think DR is missing an important point is that for his deflationary call to endure through the BK and then out the other side,you would the $ to maintain it's spending power

If we look at every recession since the second world war,and use that as our sample then he's right.The problem is that this time it might be different,the Fed has printed trillions and been the buyer of last resort for UST's.

I think DR gets a lot of things right but the implicit assumption that the dollar holds is a dangerous one.He advocates buying the long bond amongst other things eg gold.During every market rout of the last 50 years they've generally been a good place to hide but they're also very exposed if he's wrong and the Fed keeps printing and buying UST forcing yields down whilst at the same time foreigners abandon the dollar.A not impossible scenario here as it would see declining real rates in the US and a falling dollar.

Possible ? I don't know but not a trade you'd want to beon the wrong side of if unhedged.

Isn't DH saying he expects the dollar to strengthen very strongly in the bust as people flock to the safe haven status of the dollar giving it a final hurrah before a slow decline into the ground. He's mentioned a few times he sees treasuries and the dollar as holding up well through a BK. Difficult one doing the forward planning on where to hide during a BK, we going to get some sort of steep correction at some point even if it's not a crazy 70% down. 

[JMD]

6 hours ago, mcdongle said:

... Maori blockade of Northland to keep out covid

As you bought the subject up McDongle, what is the actual story there in New Zealand? Is it a health panic (whether it be genuine or imagined!?) by the Maori people to keep themselves safe from covid, or is it an oppotunistic 'power grab' by Maori community leaders in order to gain more self determination from central government.                                                                                                                                                                                     Maybe above question is bit off topic for thread... but can I think be argued that above scenario is example of hard community dislocation, and similar is probably coming here soon with Scotland, then N.I., and then Wales breaking away. Sad situation, yes - but the harsh reality is that the loss of 10 million uneconomic people from the 'UK' would be great benefit for us 'Little Englanders'!!                                                                                  (Btw, I actually wanted Scotland to stay at last referendum, but tbh I am now past caring, just tired of continual criticism/xenophobia? from Scotland, etc, toward the English; ...plus please be assured Mr McDongle that none of this is aimed at you, just saying as am unaware of your ancestral heritage?!) 

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@ThoughtCriminal  Now this is spooky and I mean spooky...............I was sjut doing my rounds on my normal twitter feeds and thought,'I'll jsut check DDMB',ahven't checked her in a while.

 

and what is she psoting about.

Wow 

 

I know history is supposed to rhyme rather than repeat, but that's the kind of thing you bookmark in your mind as a potential red flag.

 

I watched big short again this week, and we tend to forget that it didn't happen over night, took a long time to unravel.

 

 

 

 

[Loki]

Event 201 went so well

[Gin]

34 minutes ago, Loki said:

Event 201 went so well

The IMF called me this morning .

Call was scrambled , but anyway they asked me what precautions I am taking about an all out attack.

I told them not to worry as I have now changed all my old £20`s for the new ploymer ones and they are ready to go at a moments notice .

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Event 201 went so well

Timeline wise, event 201 was 18/10/2019 and first CoVID case was supposedly that December.

On that basis your financial terrorists should turn up in a matter of weeks.

Merry Christmas 🎄 I’m stocking up on spirits just in case..

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Ina all honesty,I haven't been worried about direction until this moment.Scary when JIm's sayin all's well.

Jim Cramer March 11th 2008-'Bear Stearns is fine,Bear Stearns is not in trouble,keep your moeny at Bear Stearns'

March 17th 2008

The IS has the lowest number of people not seeking work.

Thats it.

Thats mainly down to to a huge number of people living FT off USGOV checks, which are paid for by massive increases in US debt.

US also 'own'; hi-tech. Which sounds great but tech just does not employ the same number of people that autos did.

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Have you noticed no one in the media is panicking about BoE rate rises this month ?

 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have you noticed no one in the media is panicking about BoE rate rises this month ?

 

I assume they know it isn’t gonna happen.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I assume they know it isn’t gonna happen.

Why didn't the know last month