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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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MrXxxx

MrXxxx

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Phil said:

The BK isn’t far away. If your fortunate to have no debt ( imo) fill dem der boots after. It’s very close. I can smell it

So what are you saying?...get into cash ready for the buying opportunity?

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

i've been anticipating a BK for 5 years.....

I can better that, I have been waiting fro a house price crash for the last 15!

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MrXxxx

MrXxxx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, planit said:

This combined with the fact most tech stocks seem to be in a bear market even though the S&P500 is still high leads me to believe there has been sector rotation over the last month.

Easily explained in a recent Macrovoices podcast, its the unbalanced % of the FANGS that are keeping it steady, make these a non-weighted % of the S&P and its going sideways/down.

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Hancock

Hancock

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

She will make the best PM since Thatcher i think,if she gets it.You have to look loyal to the government until the right moment.The Ides of March.

Best or least shite! For me Major was the best PM in my life as he didn't create a bubble and the one that was created by Thatcher he allowed to crash without intervening, no kicking it into the future.

I really dont like her, but i am hoping to have left the country by the end of March so hopefully i'll never have to endure her.

According to Wiki she does claim to have one thing in common with Boris. "Truss has described both as being "to the left of Labour".

Lets make that 2. "She read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Merton College, Oxford.":CryBaby:

And she got the gig thanks to having an axe wound between her legs "Under David Cameron as Conservative leader, Truss was added to the party's 'A List'"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss#Early_life

 

 

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Popuplights

Popuplights

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Dunno maybe we got to a stage where there was nothing else so it was created.

Nah, we haven't had Zeta yet...

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DurhamBorn

DurhamBorn

Posted
Posted

If anyone works for the NHS or care etc the Blue Light Card is worth getting.Asda are knocking 10% off with it at the moment and booze is included.Just got 20 bottles of flavoured Vodka and Gin on the two for £20 offer and another 10% off so £9 a bottle,of course i also got 15 tins of corned beef £1.45 with another 10% off xD

I think food will jolt even more upwards in the new year so the more you can save now and pull spending forward the better.

I also got in Bowes museum free with a child ticket to see Santa.I enjoyed the elves tight leggings but mostly the silver room and the silver swan ,incredible item,look at that silver B|

swan.jpg

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planit

planit

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Easily explained in a recent Macrovoices podcast, its the unbalanced % of the FANGS that are keeping it steady, make these a non-weighted % of the S&P and its going sideways/down.

You are correct, S&P has outperformed S&P ex tech by 2% in the last month.

I wonder what it would look like if you rerun this only removing AAPL.

 

image.thumb.png.5413211593bf32a363cb5f626a317e83.png

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
On 10/12/2021 at 13:43, Cattle Prod said:

I didn't say it wasn't.  M2 itself is a bubble, so I think it's useful to divide one by the other and compare it to other assets that haven't benefitted yet. For example, gold today, at ~$1790 is at the same level per unit of M2 as it was in late 2015 or mid 2018, when it was around $1100. Make of that what you will, but they were rather good times to be buying gold. Dyodd.

image.thumb.png.fa5001ef4773a0af5b415d7caf50e9f7.png

Is there any chance you can go back further?that's an absolutely fascianting stat,I've never thought of it like that.I have been rearanging our goldies of late and looking for some call options value in teh sector,this jsut draws me in.as ever dyor...

worth noting as well the noticeably good signal GLD ETF price over inventroy is signalling a low as wel.

I'd have a bash on the st louis but I'm back at work in 2 horus so only have time to catch up.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
On 10/12/2021 at 19:42, CannonFodder said:

I think I first saw DH talking of the bust in next few months in 2016, that post above from 2017 implies there was a few years before.

Personally think bust happened in mar 20 and in rear view mirror, cycle changed then 

Could be wrong of course, could be a W shaped double bust

DH like a lot of us moves his forecasts and positioning with changes in the newsflow which is what good investors do.

I've been massively worng and massively right over the last 23 years.Sold the tech bubble early and bought ye olde world stocks then sat on them thru to 07/08 incl some banking positions that did incredibly well.

Thats to qualify my admitting that i thought the UK hosuing market was bonkers in 2002 and proceeded to get that wrong for 14/15 years where I finaly learnedmy lesson in following the price action and positoning for where CBs were headed not where I thought they should head.I've reflected at lenght on the madness of allowing my moral sense of superirority to affect how I invested and I can't reach any other conclusion than I was jsut intellectually arrogant without any grounds for being so.

So as a family,we paid for a decade of prosperity with a decade of penury relatively speaking.Since 2016 my Mum who does the books,says we've done nicely.

ALl Im trying to say is that tehse guys who put calls out there eg our own @DurhamBorn have got more guts than me.They put them out their for free(DH does haev a premium service I believe but puts so much out there that I'm not even tempted to sub to him...:-)  ) and the rear view mirror dwellers get to play kingmaker.

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sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

@sancho panza has been warning of us what's happening at the coalface:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/11/tenfold-increase-patients-waiting-eight-hours-transferred-ambulance/

Screenshot_20211211-212245.thumb.png.26df8393d4a687a3156506c7c691f5a6.png

Time for local communities to get tighter, give old folks your number if they fall, do a first aid course and find out where the nearest defibrillator is. Because despite the government taking some of the highest taxes in history out of your pocket, they aren't going to help you. They have better things to spend it on, like Test and Trace, or piss ups in Downing Street.

 

To be hoenst,I suspect the amount of people waiting ten horus for an ambulance whilst lying on the floor is even worse.

18 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

I get private health care through work, first time ever they are putting in a policy excess to discourage folk, they absolutely rammed. So many giving up on nhs and going private, private overwhelmed. I do wonder if private health care a growth sector in uk going forwards.

It'll only get worse with teh vaxx manadte,loads of epople leaving the NHS at the mintue /retiring early.

I took out private last year as covid landed and they emptied the hospitals.Was always going to eb a disaster a year down the line.

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government is finished now i think.Half of the public sector is sat at home on full pay,bennies worse than ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here.Obvious to anyone this is the worst government in history by a long shot.Labour of course are a disaster as well,so the likely result is Boris gone and a Liz Truss PM.

It's strange at the minute watching UK politics the leader of the opposition appears to be Steve Baker the Tory MP.

Our only saving grace is we hevan't got Jacinda Arderne as PM.

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Axeman123

Axeman123

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It's strange at the minute watching UK politics the leader of the opposition appears to be Steve Baker the Tory MP.

The funny thing that struck me earlier when he was on tv was his emphasis that he wasn't seeking to topple another PM. The adage "He that wields the knife can never wear the crown" sprung to mind...

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JimmyTheBruce

JimmyTheBruce

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Popuplights said:

God. I hope my pension transfer hits my Sipp soon......

 

I'm in the same situation.  Hope we both make it,would be gutting if it came and went before the funds are in

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted

I'm currently looking at my weekly screen for potentially technically attractive value stocks with good fundamentals.  198 international stocks to look at.  I'll provide an analysis if interested.  Of note though is just how many of the stocks have retraced a large part of their Mar20 moves.  OK, a bit self selecting as I'm bottom feeding but these aren't all bad companies.

Many continue to be at their support levels so could go either way.  But here is one I have been watching which decided to break it's support trend line on the monthly in the classic fashion (break, kiss from below, and then continue down).  Goes to show what could happen with the others, or not(!).

Capture.thumb.PNG.05027d51301dbb5b8a8c338117ab2182.PNG

PS:  An approximate 120% gain from the Mar20 low but now only about 25% up.  This pattern is not just limited to this sector.

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
On 11/12/2021 at 23:23, DurhamBorn said:

The government is finished now i think.Half of the public sector is sat at home on full pay,bennies worse than ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here.Obvious to anyone this is the worst government in history by a long shot.Labour of course are a disaster as well,so the likely result is Boris gone and a Liz Truss PM.

You may be right about Liz Truss. However I still think Kwasi Kwarteng, despite his recent trip ups, is a more serious politician and with better conservative instincts. I note that Kwarteng, Truss, Raab and Priti Patel were all co-authors in 2010 of a conservative document that layed out various new policy thinking, including for a contribution based social/welfare system. Not a coincidence I think that all were part of the 2010 parliamentary intake and that all now find themselves at centre of government. I agree Boris's days are numbered but his replacement should I think be serious and articulate, and Truss is neither. But I am ignorant of conservative party internal politics and accept that the deciding factor will be how popular the next contender is with the voting conservative party membership. 

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Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted
On 03/12/2021 at 11:56, Noallegiance said:

I am shocked. Shocked, I tell thee.

Bank of England rate hike supporter gets Omicron jitters as firms face 'strongest inflation pressures for 23 years' | Business News | Sky News

It's as though a reason for not hiking rates (other than world-crippling debt costs) was needed.

Aaaaaaaand ten days later:

 

Omicron and new restrictions raise prospect of Bank holding rates once more (msn.com)

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