Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

You may be right about Liz Truss. However I still think Kwasi Kwarteng, despite his recent trip ups, is a more serious politician and with better conservative instincts. I note that Kwarteng, Truss, Raab and Priti Patel were all co-authors in 2010 of a conservative document that layed out various new policy thinking, including for a contribution based social/welfare system. Not a coincidence I think that all were part of the 2010 parliamentary intake and that all now find themselves at centre of government. I agree Boris's days are numbered but his replacement should I think be serious and articulate, and Truss is neither. But I am ignorant of conservative party internal politics and accept that the deciding factor will be how popular the next contender is with the voting conservative party membership. 

I could see Truss getting it and the others getting key positions like you say.Id also expect some red wall intake up there.My MP keeps voting against the government,rightly so.Welfare and councils,civil service etc all need gutting.My partner phoned me in tears last night from work.First time ever thats happened.A 95 year old man had fallen all the way down the stairs,his leg was snapped and the bone sticking out,bleeding out slowly.The ambulance took forever and my partner had to try to simply keep him warm etc.Highest tax in history,yet you cant get an ambulance to a 95 year old.Plenty of diversity officers though.

BOE stopping QE will be the trigger for lots of changes.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

I could see Truss getting it and the others getting key positions like you say.Id also expect some red wall intake up there.My MP keeps voting against the government,rightly so.Welfare and councils,civil service etc all need gutting.My partner phoned me in tears last night from work.First time ever thats happened.A 95 year old man had fallen all the way down the stairs,his leg was snapped and the bone sticking out,bleeding out slowly.The ambulance took forever and my partner had to try to simply keep him warm etc.Highest tax in history,yet you cant get an ambulance to a 95 year old.Plenty of diversity officers though.

BOE stopping QE will be the trigger for lots of changes.

She OK today?

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

She OK today?

Fine,shes furious though,her bosses all on work from home,doing fuck all for big salaries.She is supposed to attend falls in two's,but doing most on her own now as so few staff.They cant get anyone younger,they wont work nights or weekends,they prefer ordinary care jobs working 16 hours for their bennies instead.She is saving all her taxable income into her SIPP now and will probably leave in a year or two and just get two shifts a week in a care home.

 

[ONC]

Yes , I hope your wife is ok. 
 

My wife works for NHS. It appears some areas (not front line)are over staffed, under worked and over paid, while the frontline is the reverse.

Even though my wife’s section is over staffed (medical scientist), her manager is still pushing to get more staff, just crazy. But not crazy for the manager, more staff to manage means promotion and bigger salary. No incentive to do any different. 

It is a shame. I worked in America for a while and would not like to see uk go that way, with poor having no cover.. There really must be a better way to run the NHS and it still be accessible to all. 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Bootle thinks they're screwed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/12/delaying-interest-rate-rises-will-make-things-difficult-bank/

They're not screwed, we are !!!

Index linked pensions: Check

Houses: Check

Shares: Check

Access to 0% money: Check

Mates "running" the country: Check

Know what's in the pipeline: Check

Have control of the media: Check

People think the bankers are suddenly going to act responsibly even after 20 years of them doing the opposite.

 

My worry is this is their plan....

https://www.ft.com/content/2db0434d-2851-4485-850d-06cfca32ff22

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-erdogan-inflation-currency-lira-protests-economy-11638477508

 

Depends how evil/planned their actions is i guess and right now they look evil and planned, exhibit No 1.

United States Inflation Rate | 2021 Data | 2022 Forecast

 

3 days ago — The annual inflation rate in the US surged to 6.2% in October of 2021, the highest since November of 1990 and above forecasts of 5.8%. Upward ...

 

 

Nothing will convince me that the banks haven't collapsed in the background and they've not let on, this bail out is twice what the last one was, guess what the next one will be....

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

BOE stopping QE will be the trigger for lots of changes.

Bankers being hung from lamposts will have to be the trigger for stopping QE I fear, till then they'll keep having their parties while telling everyone they can't raise rates because of a diseases that might kill 0.01% of the health/young population.

I get angrier by the day.

[Barnsey]

 

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Bankers being hung from lamposts will have to be the trigger for stopping QE I fear, till then they'll keep having their parties while telling everyone they can't raise rates because of a diseases that might kill 0.01% of the health/young population.

I get angrier by the day.

Key point is its not the banks that are bankrupt its governments.Thats why this liquidity injection is all fiscal because that will inflate then lead to higher tax grab.The whole thing is about getting tax take to increase quicker than spending.Thats it.Inflation is the only game in town for that for countries with big states as productivity gains are small or in reverse.

State spending is now out of control,and its mostly going to none productive workers and bennies.Liquidity is already out there in M2,shifting to M3 so the private sector that can increase prices with inflation and big chunk of costs are depreciating assets should really shine.

 

[Bricormortis]

Lyn Alden news letter. Oil focused as per the thesis on this thread approximately.

https://www.lynalden.com/december-2021-newsletter/

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Key point is its not the banks that are bankrupt its governments.Thats why this liquidity injection is all fiscal because that will inflate then lead to higher tax grab.

Yeah, I get that, the people in power want more and more and are happy to steal it via whatever mechanism they can get away with.  The banks can't now go bankrupt by the liquidity in the system can clearly stop and then they are happy to QE (steal) more to keep it going. 

The whole thing is about getting tax take to increase quicker than spending.Thats it.Inflation is the only game in town for that for countries with big states as productivity gains are small or in reverse.

Yes, we can clearly see that.

State spending is now out of control,

This is the worrying bit, it is out of control, the state is too big and they just keep taking more.  The more they take the more they spend on themselves and their system, it's a vicious circle, resulting in some pretty severe imbalances in society.  

and its mostly going to none productive workers and bennies.Liquidity is already out there in M2,

That's the imbalance, productive workers get nothing, a decision made by unproductive people with secure jobs. There is no incentive for them to stop, none, this will only change with collapse or social unrest, that much should be clear to everyone now I think. There will be no QT, there will be significant rate rises this is full steam ahead into collapse.  They've had their chance to change course several times but human nature being what it is, they didnt because they and their colleagues/family/friends would lose out.

shifting to M3 so the private sector that can increase prices with inflation and big chunk of costs are depreciating assets should really shine.

Can you rephrase that last bit please ?



 

So to rephrase that....

they're happy with their inflation, f**k workers, take it all, buy power, rinse and repeat ?

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Boom!!!

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Boom!!!

Why did no one suggest investing in Energy firms ?

 

 

[Barnsey]

So what happens when everyone is bracing for a policy mistake?

 

[Democorruptcy]

Hussman colleague on inflation and rates

Collision Course: Monetary Tightening Meets an Easy Money Bubble

[kibuc]

44 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

So what happens when everyone is bracing for a policy mistake?

 

The thing is, "Investors" define "policy mistake" as "anything that makes stocks red".

[HousePriceMania]

13 minutes ago, kibuc said:

The thing is, "Investors" define "policy mistake" as "anything that makes stocks red".

Yes, the policy mistake was 40 years ago when they unleashed the bankers.

[Axeman123]

56 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

So what happens when everyone is bracing for a policy mistake?

Surely "sell the rumour, buy the news" would apply? Maybe further tightening is even the trigger for the melt-up, as it would remove uncertainty. Historically the first rate hike in a cycle tends to be bullish.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Yes, the policy mistake was 40 years ago when they unleashed the bankers.

I heard a very convincing case made on a podcast that it was the bailout of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 where the real rot first set in.

[Barnsey]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Surely "sell the rumour, buy the news" would apply? Maybe further tightening is even the trigger for the melt-up, as it would remove uncertainty. Historically the first rate hike in a cycle tends to be bullish.

I'm starting to think Omicron hesitancy causes a slowing of tightening, euphoria, then panic tightening. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Second tweet is the killer.

 

I think the mainstream may have just cottoned on 

[Axeman123]

21 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I'm starting to think Omicron hesitancy causes a slowing of tightening, euphoria, then panic tightening. 

Clearly a slowing of tightening would be mega bullish for stocks, but I think even a definite step up in tightening would have the same effect. Once the tightest possible news is priced in, surely sentiment would then have to rise? Just the removal of uncertainty should give markets a boost.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welfare and councils,civil service etc all need gutting.My partner phoned me in tears last night from work.First time ever thats happened.A 95 year old man had fallen all the way down the stairs,his leg was snapped and the bone sticking out,bleeding out slowly.The ambulance took forever and my partner had to try to simply keep him warm etc.Highest tax in history,yet you cant get an ambulance to a 95 year old.Plenty of diversity officers though. BOE stopping QE will be the trigger for lots of changes.

Agreed. TPTB must surely see the necessary changes looming ahead?

...Rhetorical question... So where is the emergency cross party political debate/preparation being had? I accept i'm probably being unfair on the politicians, particularly as most institutions all around us are failing - with childrens' protection services and Yorkshire Cricket being the latest 'news examples' (btw, not being flippant, instead i rather think these represent moral and social institutional failures which tragically cannot be fixed by throwing more money).   

...Instead we get rubbish (Maoist?) mantra like '...save the NHS', which i fear is just code for advance warning of the coming Covid war-time economy, along with many other conveniently introduced types of austerity(controls?) shortages; or maybe such slogans are being used to soften the nation up and prepare us for 'emergency privatisations', in order that the country can quickly conjure up health supply, without having to create yet more state debt. 

[JMD]

ref. The renewable energy debate (is there one?) and our supposed green future... this report provides an alternate view from an investors perspective regarding risks, opportunities, etc. I know we on this thread probably know most of this stuff... but i think still a useful read.  

From the report... 'As value investors, we are frequently confronted by clients and others in the business who are shocked at the “riskiness” of some of our holdings. Mines in the Congo and Kyrgyzstan? Farms in Ukraine? Anything in Russia? Nuclear energy? Fossil fuels? Are we insane? Maybe a little, but we prefer to think we are simply evaluating the obvious risks in our holdings more accurately than the market, which tends to be very emotional. It’s not that we don’t think these investments have risks. They are just not nearly as bad as the market has discounted, so we view the risk/reward in them as heavily skewed in our favor..

Steve Rosenthal - Lord Make Me Green - November 2021 - Final.pdf (kopernikglobal.com)

 

[HousePriceMania]

Something gone pop today or are they just warning the banksters ?

[geordie_lurch]

20 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Something gone pop today or are they just warning the banksters ?

It's probably because TPTB and those with links to them know the West is going to have more deaths this winter than any other for decades due to the medium term consequences of these 'vaccines' starting to show up. This would also explain Boris' panic and the seemingly ridiculous push to try and get everyone boosted with another shot of the same 'vaccine' that has already been escaped by Omicron Like I said a few weeks ago, I'd set your stop losses to keep as much profit as you can from the lows of 2020 as IMHO I think we will see them again and then some in the next 6 months as another UK wide lockdown is 99.9% certain within weeks and that will be the least of the issues our 'recovery' will be dealing with