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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I quoted a number of these scientists to my MP in the first half of 2020, signed the GBD, etc etc. He (Jeremy Hunt) engaged for a while, then dropped off and is now non responsive. The vast majority of them have no spine, and are just like Jim Cramer. Trend followers who blow like straws in the wind. Easy to capture. When the vaccine wind blew stronger, he went with that. Didn't even respond when I confronted him with the tortured kids in lockdown stories last week. Spineless. But it's all recorded, and I will publically shame and skewer him when the wind blows the other way, as it eventually will, and may have started with tonight's rebellion in Parliament. If every conscientious voter with a wayward MP did this, they might behave themselves and not let themselves be captured by whatever forces are behind all this craziness. If I had @DurhamBorn MP they'd be getting my full support instead.

 

What the most ironic thing to stand out for me was that the Labour MP majority was whipped into the party line by Mr.Trilateral Commission member globalist Kier Starmer.

Literally a party with a history that’s supposed to be representing the common man (yes I know benefit brigade now) fully behind governmental totalitarian facist restrictions in the name of corporate pharma, if that’s not a definition of clown world, I don’t know what is!

The moral compass polarity of what made up the left wing/right wing in 80’s have flipped and I can’t understand why no one else can see it.

A den of vipers and sheep, that’s what makes up our House of Commons.

I would have never thought I’d long for the day that independent Jeremy Corbyn, flatly against all discrimination and measures to have won the general election. I suspect he is one of a genuine few that knows fully well whats going on, which would explain why he had to be ousted under the circumstances that he was.

Sometimes I feel I must of accidentally eaten a funny mushroom (like the ones  @nirvana likes) and I’ve been transported to this clown dimension. I’m ready to go home now….

17CB0058-9C91-49D4-95ED-E2F63528BC3B.thumb.jpeg.053d8a9ef27d0fe470368d99a04798d8.jpeg

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

haven't done shrooms for a long long time, keep looking for em though lol

my recs, take the chill pills, watch some movies....both The Last Duel & Shang-Chi and the legend of the 10 rings go on for bl00dy ages........buy some crypto on the dip if you're feeling brave :P

And don't forget to talk to the animals :D

bon courage!

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Chewing Grass

Chewing Grass

Posted
Posted

HMRC got their letters out early this year for end of January with bumper payments on account forecast, as far as they are concerned everyone will be earnings pots of cash next year.

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

RPI 7.1% ,my roadmap had it at 6.8% from the day this thread started this far along,very pleased with that work.8% price increases for BT etc.

Nice one mate

29 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

HMRC got their letters out early this year for end of January with bumper payments on account forecast, as far as they are concerned everyone will be earnings pots of cash next year.

SEISS bumped my return up too

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jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I quoted a number of these scientists to my MP in the first half of 2020, signed the GBD, etc etc. He (Jeremy Hunt) engaged for a while, then dropped off and is now non responsive. The vast majority of them have no spine, and are just like Jim Cramer. Trend followers who blow like straws in the wind. Easy to capture. When the vaccine wind blew stronger, he went with that. Didn't even respond when I confronted him with the tortured kids in lockdown stories last week. Spineless. But it's all recorded, and I will publically shame and skewer him when the wind blows the other way, as it eventually will, and may have started with tonight's rebellion in Parliament. If every conscientious voter with a wayward MP did this, they might behave themselves and not let themselves be captured by whatever forces are behind all this craziness. If I had @DurhamBorn MP they'd be getting my full support instead.

 

They'll just ignore you unless you can find a way to make common cause on issues of freedom with those whose politics you otherwise disagree with. Until then, it's same old Culture War, and the elites get to continue their factional fight over whose authoriansim "wins" for as long as the great unwashed are fighting tooth and nail over different aspects of "freedom".

Vaccine passports, compulsory vaccination, voter ID, right to protest, judicial review - they should all be the same fight. The fact that it isn't is how they win.

 

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted

Sold out a bit more today...20% up overall heading down to 10% up overall ( + dividends to come ), should have sold out when my SIPP starting looking amazing.

Cant see any big moves up in the next 3 months so low risk selling and holding.

Dont see how the US/UK can look through inflation now, but they'll try.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I know a few on here were following WICAO's blog, he's done an update and still in Oz

https://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2021/12/transitioning-musings-on-2021.html#more

'My COVID-19 coping mechanism is to minimise my contact with those selling fear, notably the ‘news’, which has resulted in a significant improvement in my wellbeing".

Amen bro! :Beer:

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

RPI 7.1% ,my roadmap had it at 6.8% from the day this thread started this far along,very pleased with that work.8% price increases for BT etc.

Hi DB,

When your roadmap said 6.8% inflation, what did it have down for IRs at that time ?

 

What's your guess for tomorrow's MPC meeting ?

Even if they raise IRs to 0.25% it wont make any difference to anything, so they might well do that now, things seem to be moving fast and maybe they think a warning shot has to be fired.

IIRC today is the last day of the QE bond buying crime, which is probably significant.

The US fed is the interesting one for me now, I dont see how they cannot now act.

Of course, they could all be just criminals who want 50% inflation.

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ThoughtCriminal

ThoughtCriminal

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, jamanda said:

Do any of you clever people who can add up know what the inflation rate would be if it used the same calcs as in the 70's or was it 80's?

Saw some one who did it using early 80s measure and it's 12.5%

 

Can't be said often enough, this is far worse than it appears due to the fraudulent metric now in use 

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geordie_lurch

geordie_lurch

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, jamanda said:

Do any of you clever people who can add up know what the inflation rate would be if it used the same calcs as in the 70's or was it 80's?

Zerohedge had this article from Peter Schiff's recent appearance on Tucker Carlson yesterday: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bigger-covid-or-pronouns-tucker-carlson-peter-schiff-discuss-worst-inflation-us-history and In it, Schiff says about the USA inflation figures and I think the UK would be similar:

Quote

The government changed the CPI calculation in the 1990s in order to understate the actual cost of living.

When they compare our inflation rates to the inflation of the 1970s, we’re not using the same CPI that we used then.”

The annualized rate of inflation in 2021 based on the CPI stands at 7.3%.

If we were using the same CPI we used in 1982, the rate would be closer to 15%, which means it’s the worst year in inflation in US history.”

The previous high water mark for inflation was 13.5% in 1980.

EDIT The 4 min clip is below:

 

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ThoughtCriminal

ThoughtCriminal

Posted
Posted

This might be a good time to clarify our thinking on inflation and our position in defending ourselves from its effects.

 

Crypto almost certainly isn't a hedge against inflation, gold and silver don't appear to be acting as one YET.

 

Do we just sit in stocks and ride out a BK as and when it happens? 

 

Put large percentage in metals and hope that they manage to break free of the suppression?

 

Or is there an alternative?

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Bricormortis

Bricormortis

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

RPI 7.1% ,my roadmap had it at 6.8% from the day this thread started this far along,very pleased with that work.8% price increases for BT etc.

Pensions increase = 3% . Thats some hair cut 

34 minutes ago, jamanda said:

Do any of you clever people who can add up know what the inflation rate would be if it used the same calcs as in the 70's or was it 80's?

Best I can tell you its over 12 % in America based on '70's calculations. Let that sink in.

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This might be a good time to clarify our thinking on inflation and our position in defending ourselves from its effects.

 

Crypto almost certainly isn't a hedge against inflation, gold and silver don't appear to be acting as one YET.

 

Do we just sit in stocks and ride out a BK as and when it happens? 

 

Put large percentage in metals and hope that they manage to break free of the suppression?

 

Or is there an alternative?

Yes, good call.  It is the main thing I am worried about.
 

I have sold out most of my oil shares this week with good profits, Biden has had a bad effect on oil share prices and I cant see how we wont get another correction this winter so will buy back in come march time.

I even sold out MacBeth with a nice profit.  I've held telecom and god shares but I'm now 50% sold out in a matter of 2 weeks.

Im in 2 minds to keep selling or hold out, probably hold now though.

I have about £20K held in swiss/polish/Canada/Norway just in cash  and bought some of those index linked bonds but they look high to me, but again, just in case. I am looking at gold prices and wondering how low they will go, I would like to buy more physical, again, just in case.

My problem is I am holding a lot of rapidly devaluing £s now but they are liquid and can move/buy if things dont change soon.  If we see the BK in the meantime I will go balls deep into the shares mentioned in this thread.

I dont see much value in anything right now so will wait it out till March and see where we are.
 

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geordie_lurch

geordie_lurch

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Crypto almost certainly isn't a hedge against inflation

I would strongly disagree with you and others on this thread about that :Old: We still haven't seen inflation enter the general public's minds here in the West or experienced a true currency collapse. However the recent currency collapses in both Venezuela and Turkey, which have happened since Bitcoin has been available, seem to prove to me Bitcoin was the easiest and most secure way for the population to preserve as much of whatever wealth they had :Passusabeer:

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