Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

No. You cannot lie with MMR.

Everything is checked.

No it isn't. They checked absolutely fuck all to do with my outgoings, took my word for it.

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

I dont think anyone borrowed at sub 1% levels.

And it's a case of why would the banks lend at low rated.

I just did. I have pondered it though, why is worth the bother for them? They paid the legal and valuation fees. I can only guess that when the five year fix ends they are hoping to pull my pants down and bum me. They are going to be disappointed.

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

One of my remortgages a few years back we ended up in the bank being interviewed by a mortgage advisor. I remember that I had to help her with some of the maths.

indeed.  i remember a conversation in a bank branch two years ago here in Oz, having to explain to a mortgage adviser how an offset mortgage worked.

[macca]

To keep stoking the Covid row.. 

Waterford 99.5% of all Adults fully vaccinated.. Highest Covid infections in the whole of Ireland 🇮🇪 

Can anyone explain this? What's the real reason  for vaccine passports?

Unless that pesky 0.5% are causing all the trouble?

Where is this heading? 

It's all a mystery.

[WICAO]

15 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Welcome and nice timing. I posted a link to your recent update in here yesterday.

Long time no speak @Democorruptcy.  Hope all is well with you...

[WICAO]

14 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Welcome @WICAOto the basement. Great to see you here and that all is good. A thousand thanks for all the work you put into your blog (you got me on the way with my SIPP in 2014/15).  Look forward to hearing more. 

 

Thanks for the warm welcome @Heart's Ease  So great to hear from another person that received some value from my efforts along with the much valued comments.

I'm now incredibly fortunate here in Australia because I now get 2 bites at the personal pension cherry.  My UK SIPP but here in Oz they have a system called Superannuation.  So once again I'm making hay while the sun shines with a fresh set of allowances.  On the SIPP front the recent government indexation freezes mean I could now be at risk of exceeding the LTA by the time I can access at age 55.  Something I'm closely watching.

[BadAlchemy]

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Anyone got the Aclara share distribution from holding HOC?...what is the best approach with these i.e Sell or Hold?....I am assuming a couple of things:-

1. If your broker allows you to hold these any divis will a) be subject to Canadian withholding tax [unless you fill in a W-8ben] AND also unless they allow multi-currencies will also be subject to a Forex exchange charge on any divid paid in the future.

2. In the next week or so the price will initially drop due to those brokers who cannot/will not hold them for clients automatically selling them off for their clients.

Be interesting to get some feedback [not investing advice! DYOR Etc] on this one.

Yes, have just received mine. It's only a hundred or so shares for me so I'll keep them for now. I'm with HL and have the W-8BEN form in place. HL said they would send an email following the distribution. Haven't received that yet but maybe that would clarify things some more?

Following discussions on here from way back last year re: withholding tax, I've tried to keep UK listed stocks in my HL ISA and foreign listed stocks in my SIPP (for the zero withholding tax in that wrapper). Therefore I had put my HOC shares in the ISA, but thinking about it, and as you have pointed out before, it is where the dividends are sourced that is key rather than where the stock is listed. So I will have been paying the withholding tax on the UK listed/US sourced HOC shares in my ISA and now HL have dumped the US listed/US sourced Aclara shares in the ISA too.

Dur! Never mind , I live and learn....

[WICAO]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

Welcome. I'm intrigued, what is your 'different' investing style? (i'm being nosey, so you don't have to answer!?)

I've been very transparent about it over the years so happy to share.

On this thread there are clearly some very intelligent investors and traders.  I'm not one of them.  Early in my FIRE journey I tried trading and lost money but learnt a valuable lesson.

So I went with a buy the market (multi-country asset classes) and then focus on minimising expenses and taxes approach.  I could control all of that.  Then go fishing.

For me today that means:

• 17% cash now in AUD.  Long term this is too much but it's there because I saved it to pay cash for a home and didn't want any risk around bear markets when it was time to pull the home trigger.  Longer term my aim is to hold 3 years of expenses in cash.
• 15% UK index linked gilt trackers, global corporate bond trackers and a few NS&I index linked savings certificates.  The NS&I ILSC's are slowly being run down as they mature and I'm using them to pay for a little of the home.  They aren't tax efficient here in Oz.
• 7% UK and European REIT trackers.  This used to be around 10% but I'm reinvesting (inc these dividends) elsewhere which is seeing these reduce.  The reason for this is my home will be a bit of a property hedge.
• 2% Gold.  Not enough and I need to get this back to 5%.  I'm currently using my SIPP dividends from all asset classes to rebuild this.
• 29% 'home equity' trackers.  This used to be predominantly FTSE100 and FTSE250 but I'm now moving it gradually towards ASX200.
• 25% international equity trackers.  Roughly 40% S&P500, 40% Europe and 20% Nikkei 225.
• 5% emerging market trackers

Since the start of 2007 that has returned 4.2% after inflation.  Nothing compared to some on here but:

• given my spending profile if that annualised return continues into my future I'll die a very very rich man.  Today I'm spending about 1.9% of my wealth annually which will further reduce once the home is built and we no longer rent.
• it's volatility suits my risk profile.  To demonstrate it lost 18% during the Covid dip during which I slept very soundly.  It's also recovered well with a 4.7% return for all of 2020 and a more healthy 8.9% year to date 2021.

Expenses, including wrapper (ISA, SIPP, Superannuation) and product (index tracking ETF's mostly) is relatively low at 0.18%.

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Starsend said:

No it isn't. They checked absolutely fuck all to do with my outgoings, took my word for it.

Was this a high street bank?

Do you have an account with them?

They are required to get everything and record it, just in case the loan goes bad.

 

[DoINeedOne]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Don’t want to throw the topic off, but, subbies in construction have a hell of a time last I heard getting a mortgage as proof of earnings along with not being “ employed “ ( chained into slavery paying their massive taxes) with stability ( BoE, in fact ALL banks are wank) in a stable industry, they don’t like, but, normally they have the ability to pay back a loan yet are looked upon as super high risk. May account for the new van outside the slumlords house. Just saying.

Yup pretty much self employed they hate you

2 friends had to pretty much commit fraud just to get mortgages that they could of easily got if they were working for a company earning the same or less 

Brother had his wife had to get a mortgage based on her earnings even though he earned double 

All of above are tradesman with lots of work just they don’t get paid the same amount every week

 

 

 

[CannonFodder]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Unless the rules have changed, if your lender goes under and is taken over by another lender, unless you sign a new contract, the terms of the existing contract port across.

I had a mate in HK who's father had a very low rate fixed mortgage with a lender.  Lender went bust.  Another local bank took them over, tried every method in the book including sending goons round to try to get him to resign a new contract.  Father refused and refused, and after a couple of years the hassle just stopped.  Saved him hundreds of thousands in interest.

My understanding is that is not the case under UK law, not sure about HK

IN the UK, first the adminstrator or receiver will put up for sale as a book so t andcs maintained if buyer found 

IF NO BUYER, it gets complicated but think of it like an energy contract where you loose your fix and get put on variable rate of new provider 

Remember a fix on an energy price is a uk contract t and c, and people loosing them left right and center

[JimmyTheBruce]

26 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Was this a high street bank?

Do you have an account with them?

They are required to get everything and record it, just in case the loan goes bad.

 

He's right Spy, mine was exactly the same.  I had no current account with them, and nothing I gave them showed my spending.  They might be required to do something but in my (admittedly anecdotal) experience they are definitely not doing it.

[MrXxxx]

.

[BadAlchemy]

19 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I believe for HOC you wouldn't have been paying withholding tax as they are based in Jersey so there isn't any.

Phew! That was lucky... I mean.. yeah, yeah, I knew that all along.

What a minefield. 

Are you inclined to keep your 'windfall' Aclara shares? I dont know anything about the rare earth sector but sounds like should be a good fit with the 'reflation thesis'   ?

[MrXxxx]

4 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Phew! That was lucky... I mean.. yeah, yeah, I knew that all along.

What a minefield. 

Are you inclined to keep your 'windfall' Aclara shares? I dont know anything about the rare earth sector but sounds like should be a good fit with the 'reflation thesis'   ?

Sorry I just checked, I was mistaken not Jersey but UK, so same.

At the moment my broker allows non-UK so I may as well hold AND they charge a whopping 1.5% forex!. Can't see divis for a while as this company is still in the growth stage so may as well let it build, and as you say RE are a good area for future potential....if it all goes up in a 'puff of smoke' its not a great loss anyway.

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

YOU seemed to have slipped up there me 'ol mucker?!

 

AND upthread you said you sold a lot of ya stocks?

 

WHY? ...we are entering the final blow off TOP !

 

Here's what ya need, Announcing THE:

 

'dosbods deflation reflation thread contrarian indicator' 

When @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker posts its a: SELL signal

When @WICAO posts its a: BUY signal

There you have it, should you start cleaning up, do bring a large case of Hoegaarden Beer to the meetup that @MrXxxx and I will be organising as soon as this shitshow ends hopefully spring 2022! CHEERS!

 

 

 

100% wrong, 100% glad to be wrong. Things must be very bad for the banksters to have change tact.  It;'s going to get very interesting now.

Regarding shares, sold out 50% now for a healthy profit and will hold the rest.  If there is a blow off top it could come down quicket than it goes up, so happy to miss that.

You're definitely a jinx, everything's turned the day you came back 

[Majorpain]

10 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Anyone got the Aclara share distribution from holding HOC?...what is the best approach with these i.e Sell or Hold?....I am assuming a couple of things:-

1. If your broker allows you to hold these any divis will a) be subject to Canadian withholding tax [unless you fill in a W-8ben] AND also unless they allow multi-currencies will also be subject to a Forex exchange charge on any divid paid in the future.

2. In the next week or so the price will initially drop due to those brokers who cannot/will not hold them for clients automatically selling them off for their clients.

Be interesting to get some feedback [not investing advice! DYOR Etc] on this one.

I'm holding the free ones and might buy more after seeing how they get on, rare earth deposits outside China are, well, rare. I got lucky enough from my bottom feeding that its a reasonable size.

Rare earths in a sustainable manner will be big growth industry in years ahead IMO, China strip mines and pollutes environment to get theirs.

[Craig]

11 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

That stint at Man U really took its toll on Solskjaer, didn't it?

[Sugarlips]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

I've been very transparent about it over the years so happy to share.

On this thread there are clearly some very intelligent investors and traders.  I'm not one of them.  Early in my FIRE journey I tried trading and lost money but learnt a valuable lesson.

So I went with a buy the market (multi-country asset classes) and then focus on minimising expenses and taxes approach.  I could control all of that.  Then go fishing.

For me today that means:

• 17% cash now in AUD.  Long term this is too much but it's there because I saved it to pay cash for a home and didn't want any risk around bear markets when it was time to pull the home trigger.  Longer term my aim is to hold 3 years of expenses in cash.
• 15% UK index linked gilt trackers, global corporate bond trackers and a few NS&I index linked savings certificates.  The NS&I ILSC's are slowly being run down as they mature and I'm using them to pay for a little of the home.  They aren't tax efficient here in Oz.
• 7% UK and European REIT trackers.  This used to be around 10% but I'm reinvesting (inc these dividends) elsewhere which is seeing these reduce.  The reason for this is my home will be a bit of a property hedge.
• 2% Gold.  Not enough and I need to get this back to 5%.  I'm currently using my SIPP dividends from all asset classes to rebuild this.
• 29% 'home equity' trackers.  This used to be predominantly FTSE100 and FTSE250 but I'm now moving it gradually towards ASX200.
• 25% international equity trackers.  Roughly 40% S&P500, 40% Europe and 20% Nikkei 225.
• 5% emerging market trackers

Since the start of 2007 that has returned 4.2% after inflation.  Nothing compared to some on here but:

• given my spending profile if that annualised return continues into my future I'll die a very very rich man.  Today I'm spending about 1.9% of my wealth annually which will further reduce once the home is built and we no longer rent.
• it's volatility suits my risk profile.  To demonstrate it lost 18% during the Covid dip during which I slept very soundly.  It's also recovered well with a 4.7% return for all of 2020 and a more healthy 8.9% year to date 2021.

Expenses, including wrapper (ISA, SIPP, Superannuation) and product (index tracking ETF's mostly) is relatively low at 0.18%.

Just a thought but as you are down under you might want to consider some silver in the portfolio mix as you won’t pay the VAT (or GST). It’s at or near historic lows atm.There is no point me saying dyor in your case!

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

I've been very transparent about it over the years so happy to share.

On this thread there are clearly some very intelligent investors and traders.  I'm not one of them.  Early in my FIRE journey I tried trading and lost money but learnt a valuable lesson.

So I went with a buy the market (multi-country asset classes) and then focus on minimising expenses and taxes approach.  I could control all of that.  Then go fishing.

For me today that means:

• 17% cash now in AUD.  Long term this is too much but it's there because I saved it to pay cash for a home and didn't want any risk around bear markets when it was time to pull the home trigger.  Longer term my aim is to hold 3 years of expenses in cash.
• 15% UK index linked gilt trackers, global corporate bond trackers and a few NS&I index linked savings certificates.  The NS&I ILSC's are slowly being run down as they mature and I'm using them to pay for a little of the home.  They aren't tax efficient here in Oz.
• 7% UK and European REIT trackers.  This used to be around 10% but I'm reinvesting (inc these dividends) elsewhere which is seeing these reduce.  The reason for this is my home will be a bit of a property hedge.
• 2% Gold.  Not enough and I need to get this back to 5%.  I'm currently using my SIPP dividends from all asset classes to rebuild this.
• 29% 'home equity' trackers.  This used to be predominantly FTSE100 and FTSE250 but I'm now moving it gradually towards ASX200.
• 25% international equity trackers.  Roughly 40% S&P500, 40% Europe and 20% Nikkei 225.
• 5% emerging market trackers

Since the start of 2007 that has returned 4.2% after inflation.  Nothing compared to some on here but:

• given my spending profile if that annualised return continues into my future I'll die a very very rich man.  Today I'm spending about 1.9% of my wealth annually which will further reduce once the home is built and we no longer rent.
• it's volatility suits my risk profile.  To demonstrate it lost 18% during the Covid dip during which I slept very soundly.  It's also recovered well with a 4.7% return for all of 2020 and a more healthy 8.9% year to date 2021.

Expenses, including wrapper (ISA, SIPP, Superannuation) and product (index tracking ETF's mostly) is relatively low at 0.18%.

Just a thought but as you are down under you might want to consider some silver in the portfolio mix rather than all gold as you won’t pay the VAT (or GST). It’s at or near historic lows atm. There is no point me saying dyor in your case!

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

I've been very transparent about it over the years so happy to share.

On this thread there are clearly some very intelligent investors and traders.  I'm not one of them.  Early in my FIRE journey I tried trading and lost money but learnt a valuable lesson.

So I went with a buy the market (multi-country asset classes) and then focus on minimising expenses and taxes approach.  I could control all of that.  Then go fishing.

For me today that means:

• 17% cash now in AUD.  Long term this is too much but it's there because I saved it to pay cash for a home and didn't want any risk around bear markets when it was time to pull the home trigger.  Longer term my aim is to hold 3 years of expenses in cash.
• 15% UK index linked gilt trackers, global corporate bond trackers and a few NS&I index linked savings certificates.  The NS&I ILSC's are slowly being run down as they mature and I'm using them to pay for a little of the home.  They aren't tax efficient here in Oz.
• 7% UK and European REIT trackers.  This used to be around 10% but I'm reinvesting (inc these dividends) elsewhere which is seeing these reduce.  The reason for this is my home will be a bit of a property hedge.
• 2% Gold.  Not enough and I need to get this back to 5%.  I'm currently using my SIPP dividends from all asset classes to rebuild this.
• 29% 'home equity' trackers.  This used to be predominantly FTSE100 and FTSE250 but I'm now moving it gradually towards ASX200.
• 25% international equity trackers.  Roughly 40% S&P500, 40% Europe and 20% Nikkei 225.
• 5% emerging market trackers

Since the start of 2007 that has returned 4.2% after inflation.  Nothing compared to some on here but:

• given my spending profile if that annualised return continues into my future I'll die a very very rich man.  Today I'm spending about 1.9% of my wealth annually which will further reduce once the home is built and we no longer rent.
• it's volatility suits my risk profile.  To demonstrate it lost 18% during the Covid dip during which I slept very soundly.  It's also recovered well with a 4.7% return for all of 2020 and a more healthy 8.9% year to date 2021.

Expenses, including wrapper (ISA, SIPP, Superannuation) and product (index tracking ETF's mostly) is relatively low at 0.18%.

Just a thought but as you are down under you might want to consider some silver in the portfolio mix rather than all gold as you won’t pay the VAT (or GST). It’s at or near historic lows atm. There is no point me saying dyor in your case!

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Yup pretty much self employed they hate you

2 friends had to pretty much commit fraud just to get mortgages that they could of easily got if they were working for a company earning the same or less 

Brother had his wife had to get a mortgage based on her earnings even though he earned double 

All of above are tradesman with lots of work just they don’t get paid the same amount every week

 

 

 

My mate had similar trouble.

I suggested that he'd have had a much easier time if he'd declared more of his earnings.

He wasn't keen on that for some reason.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

I've been very transparent about it over the years so happy to share.

On this thread there are clearly some very intelligent investors and traders.  I'm not one of them.  Early in my FIRE journey I tried trading and lost money but learnt a valuable lesson.

So I went with a buy the market (multi-country asset classes) and then focus on minimising expenses and taxes approach.  I could control all of that.  Then go fishing.

For me today that means:

• 17% cash now in AUD.  Long term this is too much but it's there because I saved it to pay cash for a home and didn't want any risk around bear markets when it was time to pull the home trigger.  Longer term my aim is to hold 3 years of expenses in cash.
• 15% UK index linked gilt trackers, global corporate bond trackers and a few NS&I index linked savings certificates.  The NS&I ILSC's are slowly being run down as they mature and I'm using them to pay for a little of the home.  They aren't tax efficient here in Oz.
• 7% UK and European REIT trackers.  This used to be around 10% but I'm reinvesting (inc these dividends) elsewhere which is seeing these reduce.  The reason for this is my home will be a bit of a property hedge.
• 2% Gold.  Not enough and I need to get this back to 5%.  I'm currently using my SIPP dividends from all asset classes to rebuild this.
• 29% 'home equity' trackers.  This used to be predominantly FTSE100 and FTSE250 but I'm now moving it gradually towards ASX200.
• 25% international equity trackers.  Roughly 40% S&P500, 40% Europe and 20% Nikkei 225.
• 5% emerging market trackers

Since the start of 2007 that has returned 4.2% after inflation.  Nothing compared to some on here but:

• given my spending profile if that annualised return continues into my future I'll die a very very rich man.  Today I'm spending about 1.9% of my wealth annually which will further reduce once the home is built and we no longer rent.
• it's volatility suits my risk profile.  To demonstrate it lost 18% during the Covid dip during which I slept very soundly.  It's also recovered well with a 4.7% return for all of 2020 and a more healthy 8.9% year to date 2021.

Expenses, including wrapper (ISA, SIPP, Superannuation) and product (index tracking ETF's mostly) is relatively low at 0.18%.

What happens with the SIPP? If you transfer the pot abroad would it be subject to a moving abroad tax?

[DurhamBorn]

Anyone got Orange SA got the divi yet?,should of arrived yesterday i think,but not in yet.HL never rush on these things it seems.

[WICAO]

57 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Just a thought but as you are down under you might want to consider some silver in the portfolio mix as you won’t pay the VAT (or GST). It’s at or near historic lows atm.There is no point me saying dyor in your case!

Thanks for the hint here @Sugarlips will do some reading on that.

[sancho panza]

18 hours ago, Starsend said:

Agreed, complete no brainer. Inflation will smash the amount I owe down over the next five years while the stuff it's invested in will hopefully keep pace with inflation and provide some decent income. Always a bit of a gamble but I'm fairly certain the downside risk is limited and the upside pretty big over a five year time frame. Will be laddering over at least a year. Anything not invested will be in premium bonds temporarily which pays about 1%.

I didn't like re-mortgaging my home and wouldn't have done it if I didn't have alternative funds to pay it back at any time.

That's true if you get pay rises to compensate for the inflation

17 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Maybe the bankers like the look of high IRs

 

Higher interest rates mean higher margins for the banks.Banks profits suffer with lower IR's.

14 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Telefonica (TEF or the ADR) has a P/E ratio of 2 and a bit.

Why is it so low in comparison to others in that sector? Its German and Brazilian counterparts have P/Es of 51.8 and 16.6 respectively.

Does it have a stinker of a pension scheme or something?

I think that figures wrong.

PE ratio is =    share price/(net income/common shares outstanding)

so you can work it out from here.I genereally use the year end figure as they report all sorts of nasties in that

Just make sure you use the euro data,sometimes with teh ADR's there's a mix of $/E .

TEF PE=      3.815/(1,582,000,000/5,599,612,909)=3.815/0.28=13.625

    

[Eventually Right]

On 26/11/2021 at 10:17, Eventually Right said:

Just an update, in case anyone is interested.

I switched out all my telecoms shares for PM mining shares a couple of days ago:

 

It won't last, but if I'm somehow number 1 in three weeks time, the £5k prize will make it a good Christmas! 

 

Final day of the competition, and I'm in 10th position.  I'm still fully loaded with Gold/Silver miners, and about 6% behind the leaders.

I pretty much need this to happen in the next 6 hours, in order to win, right?