Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

May I ask why those and also why not just say GDX?

I coma score the sector and then use a few small companies to levearge the underlying.I use a newsletter and the discussion on here for small company ideas.The bigger ones are coma scored for value.I don't like GDX as it includes some companies the coma scores indicate are overvalued.

How times have changed.Below are two portfolio set ups,one from early 2019 and the one for now to show how our PM set up has changed first purchase was GFI 2017 at $3(those were the days).First line biggest holdings,then each row smaller hodlings

We took a lot of the table in Sept 2020 to buy oil stocks,and tehn took that opporutnity to leverage it some.I was sad to part with goldfields, Sibanye and part sale harmony but the prices were too good.Would like the chance to buy them back ina  BK.

 

 

2019

kinross, newmont, barrick, fresnillo,anglogold,Newcrest

Goldfields,Sand storm, Oceana,Hochschild,Sibanye

New Gold, Osisko gold royalty,alamos,harmony,guyana,Rio2,

Alexco,gold resource,,Integra,Buenaventrua,

Tinka,SGI,RSGR,

 

Current end 2021

Kinross,barrick,new gold,Eldorado,Rio2,Anglogold,

Strategic Metals,Buenaventura,B2G,Minera Alamos

Alamos,Oceana,Yamana,Alexco,

Godl resoruce,Integra,

Harmony,Petropavlosk,Firoe.

early 2019

5 hours ago, harp said:

can I just ask. IF cable does turn against the usd, would getting shares in companies that predominantly get their earnings in sterling be a better bet? 

 

 

Think a more pertinent question would be who's costs are mainly in $USD.

We're building our USD book and have been for a couple of years as per the discussion here 3000 pages ago,the USD looks like it has one more crisis in it.

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ignore the BOE watch US long bonds.Inflation will stay way higher than rates as they try to take private savings to fund government,but rates will go up.If long bonds rise and BOE doesnt increase inflation will go higher and higher.They are lagging the long bond now by extreme levels.Long bond yields fall or BOE increases rates.I think rates are a side show though in the UK,QE is the big one as its funding a £200 billion structural deficit.They are trying to increase everything 30% with government costs lagging,but structural problems in the economy are stopping it.

I'm intruged by the price action in this chart and the near 100% increase from the admittedly artifical March 20 lows.

Was talking shop with my Mum yesterday ref some of the bonds issued by the likes of Vodafone,sticking up contracts by RPI and paying bond holders back in quickly depreciating specie.It's a cunning trade by them.

Db could I aks your opinion on why the long bond is so depressed compared to the 10 year in terms of inflation expectations.I jsut cannot figure why market participants are buying 30 year debt on these terms

 

I repsot Fasial's tweet from t'other day,some equities are more equal than others.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

That's the bit people still believe.

They'll only rise when people can afford the payments then they'll get the bottom of the pyramid people/borrowing even more.

It's a scam, a massive state sponsored scam to what end, power and money.

If you dont own a house it's time to get one, with as much debt as you dare. this is only going one way now.

 

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.As @sancho panza fantastic post above they are spreading the pot thinner trying to hold on to a huge state.Even the Fed cant control the long bond forever.The rubber band is stretched to extreme levels and dislocation will be (and already is) the result.

 

You answered my question before I'd asked it...

3 hours ago, WICAO said:

Oz is working well for us.  Really loving the outdoor life and hope we'll be here for a good while.

Don't post so much on the blog anymore.  It served a really useful purpose for a lot of years (started it in 2009) and a lot of people have told me it really helped them as well, some very significantly so given what they've shared, so really glad I did it.  Also owe a debt of gratitude to a lot of readers who contributed over the years to what I am today so the least I can do is post occasionally to let them know what's on the other side of FIRE given the majority of blogs are on their journey and not living it.

Welocme WICAO,nice to see you back.A lot of us here left HPC because of the random censorhip of ideas/discussion.

Glad Oz has panned out.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

The Argentine.

Trying to sink us in retliation? Quite why we have foreign nationals on our MPC I'll never understand how they get through the vetting.

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Perhaps I was just unlucky with the bank drone I was assigned. 

Loans at 30% LTV are a no brainer for the bank to be fair.I suspect things will be harder from 50% LTV up.

[Starsend]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Trying to sink us in retliation? Quite why we have foreign nationals on our MPC I'll never understand how they get through the vetting.

Loans at 30% LTV are a no brainer for the bank to be fair.I suspect things will be harder from 50% LTV up.

I think up to 60% is a no brainer generally for the bank. Above that the rates start to rise.

[HousePriceMania]

Maybe the bankers like the look of high IRs

 

[HousePriceMania]

37 minutes ago, JMD said:

'Thank God the Tories are fighting the globalists' you say?   (Really hope that's irony there housepricemania?!, I suspect that it is)                 ... Anyway, Mark Carney sends you his best!!

Was going for Sarcasm 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Latest from Dave H.

 

That guys lucky, Dave normally tells them to fuck off.

[Don Coglione]

51 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I think up to 60% is a no brainer generally for the bank. Above that the rates start to rise.

I was looking for 50% LTV; got nowhere without explicit details as to why I wanted the money, despite having 100% cover of the funds (which the bank knew).

I should have played the game earlier, but revealed my hand too soon.

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I was looking for 50% LTV; got nowhere without explicit details as to why I wanted the money, despite having 100% cover of the funds (which the bank knew).

I should have played the game earlier, but revealed my hand too soon.

You can always try again elsewhere.

Just tell them you want to buy a brand new Tesla, anything really, so long as it doesn't have a yield.

[Don Coglione]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

You can always try again elsewhere.

Just tell them you want to buy a brand new Tesla, anything really, so long as it doesn't have a yield.

I wanted 200k (50% LTV).

That's a lot of Teslas.

[Starsend]

4 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I wanted 200k (50% LTV).

That's a lot of Teslas.

I think some are almost £100k so one Tesla and a holiday home.

[Don Coglione]

Just now, Starsend said:

I think some are almost £100k so one Tesla and a holiday home.

Yes, I should have gone for the holiday home option.

Enjoy your free lucre; maybe buy me a pint (at ten quid in 2 years' time...).

[DurhamBorn]

US telcos bouncing hard today,likely the smell of rate increases chasing inflation higher, woken some from slumber.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

4 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Perhaps I was just unlucky with the bank drone I was assigned. 

My recent remortgage with Sir Charles's bank was rejected by the first "adviser" who said I was asking for too much.

I submitted the exact same details to the same bank via the same process and a second "adviser" waved it all through without a murmur.

The whole charade is completely fucking bonkers.  You can give them proof of an account with several hundred grand in it, only to be informed that they're only concerned with "affordability" so savings don't matter, salaries do. The mind truly boggles.

[JimmyTheBruce]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

Mistress Chamoisface comedy continues.

ECB to exit pandemic QE programme as inflation soars

Central bank cushions impact by boosting other bond-buying scheme as Omicron spreads

https://www.ft.com/content/03a30484-b265-4a88-a861-de1784305d40

The European Central Bank has decided to scale back its huge crisis stimulus, announcing its €1.85tn pandemic-response programme will end net purchases in March, but also promised to keep buying bonds for much of next year under a separate scheme.

The central bank said on Thursday that its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), launched last year to counter the financial impact of the coronavirus crisis, would lower its pace of net purchases in the first quarter of next year and then halt them in March.

Turkey *lowers* rates, lira plunges.

All Germans, Brits otehr Northern EUers avoid EU holidays, plunging Italy, Spain and France into deeper economic shit.

Im guessing the informal weekly call with the Fed has scared he pants off BoE and now ECB.

 

 

I'm glad they left her name out because I've run out of suitable pictures.  If anyone could photoshop her in manacles I'd appreciate it.  For educational purposes obviously 

[reformed nice guy]

Telefonica (TEF or the ADR) has a P/E ratio of 2 and a bit.

Why is it so low in comparison to others in that sector? Its German and Brazilian counterparts have P/Es of 51.8 and 16.6 respectively.

Does it have a stinker of a pension scheme or something?

[Bobthebuilder]

36 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

The whole charade is completely fucking bonkers.  You can give them proof of an account with several hundred grand in it, only to be informed that they're only concerned with "affordability" so savings don't matter, salaries do. The mind truly boggles.

I applied for an offset mortgage with my bank a couple of years ago. The hoops I had to jump through, even though I was putting all my cards on the table. Over 2 hours on the phone to the specialist mortgage division (they deal with the repos) and 2 face to face visits to a branch.

 

[BWW]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The MPC have lost the plot it seems 

 

 

 

Or Boris asked them to do it to give him an excuse for losing whichg was going to happen anyway because he's shite.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's an interest rate hold guaranteed.

They had their meeting last night, some people are more equal than others when it comes to meetings.

 

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who was the 1.  

IRs up.

You should join every day.

You're having the opposite effect of @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

 

YOU seemed to have slipped up there me 'ol mucker?!

 

AND upthread you said you sold a lot of ya stocks?

 

WHY? ...we are entering the final blow off TOP !

 

Here's what ya need, Announcing THE:

 

'dosbods deflation reflation thread contrarian indicator' 

When @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker posts its a: SELL signal

When @WICAO posts its a: BUY signal

There you have it, should you start cleaning up, do bring a large case of Hoegaarden Beer to the meetup that @MrXxxx and I will be organising as soon as this shitshow ends hopefully spring 2022! CHEERS!

 

 

 

[spygirl]

51 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

My recent remortgage with Sir Charles's bank was rejected by the first "adviser" who said I was asking for too much.

I submitted the exact same details to the same bank via the same process and a second "adviser" waved it all through without a murmur.

The whole charade is completely fucking bonkers.  You can give them proof of an account with several hundred grand in it, only to be informed that they're only concerned with "affordability" so savings don't matter, salaries do. The mind truly boggles.

The banks assume that if you've got the money then you can buy the house.

Tgey are v suspect of someone with liquid assets wanting a high LTV mortgage.

Put 60%, fix for 5 and theyll skip affordability checks.

I was going to get an offset mortgage too. It would have took a lot hoop jumping.

I just got a fix with no payback limit. Cant get those anymore.

[ThoughtCriminal]

I hope you've all bought your gas heaters, because when the temperature actually gets cold we're screwed.

[JimmyTheBruce]

45 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I applied for an offset mortgage with my bank a couple of years ago. The hoops I had to jump through, even though I was putting all my cards on the table. Over 2 hours on the phone to the specialist mortgage division (they deal with the repos) and 2 face to face visits to a branch.

 

There is a silver lining to this covid shite, mine was all done remotely.

[Don Coglione]

36 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The banks assume that if you've got the money then you can buy the house.

Tgey are v suspect of someone with liquid assets wanting a high LTV mortgage.

Put 60%, fix for 5 and theyll skip affordability checks.

I was going to get an offset mortgage too. It would have took a lot hoop jumping.

I just got a fix with no payback limit. Cant get those anymore.

Bollocks.

[JimmyTheBruce]

35 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The banks assume that if you've got the money then you can buy the house.

The banks definition of affordability means that a multimillionaire taking a 6 month sabbatical wouldn't qualify for a 300k loan.  It's moronic, and just another example of how regulation/legislation, in seeking to "protect" the lowest common denominator, fucks everything up for everyone.

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

The banks definition of affordability means that a multimillionaire taking a 6 month sabbatical wouldn't qualify for a 300k loan.  It's moronic, and just another example of how regulation/legislation, in seeking to "protect" the lowest common denominator, fucks everything up for everyone.

I can't get credit for anything due to the fact that I've not had credit in the last 30 years.

The only time it's an issue is hiring cars. I just get the company travel agent to issue a voucher.

The only debt I want to die with is to the taxman