Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[GoneDark]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

"Watch and learn"

"No, you watch and learn"

"No, YOU wa...

Yeah I realized he was making assumptions on the supply side a while back, which made me relaxed about his forecast. He's fond of saying most investors don't have the length of experience to understand a cycle turn like this, and that's true. But he needs to look back even longer to understand energy supply problems. In oil, the only parallel is the supply shocks of the 70s, but they were political, not geological. We haven't had a geological supply problem like this ...ever. Since 1859, supply has grown to meet demand. This is DH's assumption. I'll just be there, and the dollar controls the need for it. 

A supply shock almost happened in 2008/9/10 till the industry remembered all the crap rock they'd found years ago and had been ignoring through the centre of the States and the shale industry was born which kicked out the problem a decade. I don't see another rabbit to pull out of a hat. Maybe ultra deep water but we won't get that flowing in less than ten years.

 

 

Appreciate your posts.

Please ignore, I should've just looked online: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_by_country

Could shale not be found and utilised in large quantities in other regions that the west are 'friendly' with? Or has that already been sourced and used. I heard, probably on this site, that in England we are sitting on enough shale to last us for 50 years, with the option of exporting it as well.

Apologies if this has been answered elsewhere.

Edited to say ignore this post.

[Errol]

16 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I appreciate Sayler has a good background and decent credibility

Erm, not sure what you've been reading but he really doesn't.

He was the biggest loser in the Dotcom bubble and the SEC accused him of fraud (it settled out of court as these things usually do).

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Errol said:

Erm, not sure why you've been reading but he really doesn't.

He was the biggest loser in the Dotcom bubble and the SEC accused him of fraud (it settled out of court as these things usually do).

never heard of him before microstrategy, mind you never really looked, just looked like some tramp to me.

What does microstrategy even do, does it just buy bitcoin and hold it or is there something else it does? I cant be arsed to look it up, just looks like a ponzi to me.

[kibuc]

34 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Communism.

Why not just make poverty and unhappiness illegal?

[Axeman123]

Now the FT is looking into Tether. The funny thing is that none of this is new, people were trying to draw attention to Tether running a fractional reserve and acting as a self-appointed crypto central bank over a year ago. No-one cared while everyone was getting rich. Now the tide is going out...etc.

https://www.ft.com/content/5887ef43-d43a-4608-a1ac-aacc99f076b9

"Tether has refused to disclose details on its $40bn hoard of US government bonds for fear of revealing its “secret sauce”, even as one of the world’s most important crypto assets comes under strain from heavy selling pressure. Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s chief technology officer, said on Thursday that the group cannot provide information on which organisation is providing custody of its Treasuries holdings, nor where the assets are stored or which firms handle trading on its behalf"

EDIT: and another one just now

https://archive.ph/otEW6

[Axeman123]

Pivot?

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Pivot?

 

Yields getting lower so we won't raise rates as much, is that it?

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yields getting lower so we won't raise rates as much, is that it?

I don't know, but I seem to remember some previous QE being described as being for treasury market functioning. I also seem to remember DB stating they might raise rates but keep printing.

I don't know TBH

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, a 10% inflation rate is applied to the Capital over a whole year, a 10% discount on a share price [as we have seen with HL/Fres today] is gained over a day.

You have attributed a quote to me for something that I didn't post. It was by @moneyscam

[Animal Spirits]

24 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yields getting lower so we won't raise rates as much, is that it?

Who will be buying all the new issuance and at what price/yield moving forward now that the Fed has stopped LSAP's, someone else has to buy the treasuries with existing money.

IIRC, Luke has previously suggested they may attempt to cap yields and the dollar will become the release valve to fund entitlements on a nominal basis.

[DoINeedOne]

Bought some MAI & MAG first ladders 

These fucking miners 

Anyone want to buy a kidney

[Libspero]

1 hour ago, stoobs said:

According to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna/, the historical market cap of LUNA is:

• 5th April $41.66bn
• 5th May $29.98bn
• Now $0.05bn

Could someone help my tiny mind get around this.

Has over $41bn of actual money been lost here?

No.

I have a rusty nail.  It’s worth a penny.

Tomorrow someone on the internet is going to buy a rusty nail for £41bn. So I value mine accordingly.  I’m a £41bnaire.

The day after another one sells for a penny.    I just lost £41bn.

No wealth was created or lost during this process unless you bought or sold.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

never heard of him before microstrategy, mind you never really looked, just looked like some tramp to me.

What does microstrategy even do, does it just buy bitcoin and hold it or is there something else it does? I cant be arsed to look it up, just looks like a ponzi to me.

It doesn’t something to do with software (analytics and intelligence) and computer shit but obviously BTC has been the earner. I can’t be arsed to give more details about what they do because you don’t care and it genuinely doesn’t matter 😂😂

ps (for Errol) I seem to remember he was the most credible I listened to during my research but I think I forget how low the bar was…apologies.  I recall one guy I was told to listen to and I would be totally convinced about Crypto….but all I got was his favourite rapper, his favourite hat, lots of ‘dudes’ after each sentence and a payment system that solved a problem that didn’t exist. Genuinely that podcast I was steered to in or to understand crypto literally convinced me not to invest.
 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Silver spot price: £550 per kilo 

Bullion bar: £770 per kilo 

 

We should get into the gold and silver business with those mark-ups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jesus Wept]

23 minutes ago, Libspero said:

No.

I have a rusty nail.  It’s worth a penny.

Tomorrow someone on the internet is going to buy a rusty nail for £41bn. So I value mine accordingly.  I’m a £41bnaire.

The day after another one sells for a penny.    I just lost £41bn.

No wealth was created or lost during this process unless you bought or sold.

The bloke who sold his rusty nail for £41bn is now £41bn richer. He took £41bn off some numpty. 

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Silver spot price: £550 per kilo 

Bullion bar: £770 per kilo 

 

We should get into the gold and silver business with those mark-ups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's not much mark up on Sterling Silver at Auction.

[Pip321]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I’m  wroking on my BK roll over lsit and will psot it up for laughs and feedback see if it pays out.

That would be interesting to see. I was chuffed with my small purchase of HL today at 809p but am waiting for a bargain at Rio, so very close but missed out and it’s recovering (again). That 11% yield just looks so tasty and I like the business….but it’s a fairly volatile share and I want to use that to get on the right side of a long term hold. 

VOD also just wouldn’t dip enough for me today and I am going to careful because they report soon….whilst I am not expecting anything when they report but I don’t want to miss out. So I will buy some soon despite volatility in the markets.

My list of acceptable shares is long (about 20) but I intend to only invest in a few at a time at the moment…some trading really but underpinned by the macros in case I buy too early and need to hold for the long term. Only ‘trading’ because it’s volatile and there is always one eye on the BK….then my buying will be much more aggressive in terms of scale and also in terms of my intent to then hold.

If you want a starting point I have 700 Evraz shares I can do you a deal on.😉

[Jesus Wept]

7 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

…..but am waiting for a bargain at Rio, so very close but missed out and it’s recovering (again). That 11%

Only ‘trading’ because it’s volatile and there is always one eye on the BK….then my buying will be much more aggressive in terms of scale and also in terms of my intent to then hold.

If you want a starting point I have 700 Evraz shares I can do you a deal on.😉

We could be in the BK already….
 

Another day of turmoil.

As I speak….

DOW - 1.77%

S&P - 1.82%

NASDAQ -1.91%

Bitcoin tanking…..

Depression on the way ??

Commodity collapse ??? 
 

Be careful out there…….

[Libspero]

6 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

The bloke who sold his rusty nail for £41bn is now £41bn richer. He took £41bn off some numpty. 

You are right,  but it confuses the lesson a little.   The point is the aggregate value of the system is determined by a small number of transactions that set the price.  The only thing that changes for the rest is the notional / paper value.

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's not much mark up on Sterling Silver at Auction.

Yeah, I've seen your posts on that. Think I'm going to start attending as dealers are just taking the piss.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Something tells me that they haven't thought this NATO lark through.

[ashestoashes]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Something tells me that they haven't thought this NATO lark through.

has a lot of trees, can produce petrol from trees - treethanol

[HousePriceMania]

 

[invalid]

2 hours ago, Sidd said:

Alexco Resources is one example. Impact silver is not far off but not checked them all.

 

Centamin is about to go ex dividend and its fallen a lot as well. I need to check but I think the div (not yet approved) is around 5 cents (bringing total for the year to 9 cents) and with a share price in the low 80s.

EDIT - CORRECTION

2021 FINAL DIVIDEND 

Consistent with the Company’s stated commitment to shareholders, the Board proposes a final dividend of 5 US cents per share (US$58 million). This will bring the total dividend attributed to full year 2021 to 9 US cents per share (US$105 million). The final dividend will be subject to shareholder approval at the 2022 Annual General Meeting on 10 May 2022.

 

[HousePriceMania]

Posting this hear because people on twitter are too thick to get it