Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

One suggestion: If you want to, testing your broker/investment house withdrawl times in times of stress is worthwhile.

I've pulled a fair chunk out of interactive brokers, submitted yesterday.  I will see how long it takes to hit my main bank account.

Remember the issue of return OF capital is more important than return ON capital.  I did get stuck once where I couldn't get funds out of a broker because their system said there was a question over my ID.

If things turn really shit, you don't want to become a creditor at the bottom of the queue.

I had to do this via VoIP in 2008 from Australia on a travel laptop on slow internet trying to transfer a sizeable amount from Kaupthing Icelandic bank. (Lesson learned)

Not fun, still I got it transferred and was waaaay before the boomers who were still arguing amongst themselves on MSE stating the whole thing was overblown and everything was fine and ended up having to apply for their money through the FSCS.

[kibuc]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

DH keeping the faith in thatvid K.The section on metals worth a lsiten if you haevn't got time for the whole lot

Interesting taking the silver miners off the Nov 18 lows,Hoch,Fres,AXU look oversold.

We're still laddering in.
DH has a great section on sentiment and talking about tops/bottoms,a good reminder sometimes

I've got to say DH comes across much more sensible and much less arrogant in those podcasts than he does in his tidbits on twitter.

If this action in silver continues I'll definitely look into selling my goldies and polymetalic miners (which have held up relatively well) and double down on those beaten up silver diggers because the upside is impossible to ignore.

[Pip321]

25 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

As has often happened in the past, the frustrating thing about markets melting is how smug buy to letters can merely refer to Rightmove and note how their portfolio remains insulated and highly valued and their wealth intact. Now occasionally there is a lag and some fall in house prices but property really is very attractive if you can avoid the emotional trvails of market/bond/crypto/commodity investments.

Property is a good investment for those who can just ‘deny’ a loss. The neighbours house comes up at 30% discount but the BTL’er just thinks ‘mine has a new boiler and kitchen…that’s worth £100k’.

Really that’s the way we should treat shares but of course that’s easier said than done when there is a ticker on a screen  

I had a tiny flutter on Evraz (and I mean a little £470 flutter because if they recovered that would be £7500🤔🤦🏻‍♂️).
In a way it’s better to hold a suspended share like that and have someone say, “nice buy, now bugger off and I will let you know what they are worth in 5 years time”

[planit]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

There are economic bombs ready to blow up everywhere you look, but this is a big one.

 

 

This plus the EU [unelected] wokeness is the reason I will be avoiding Germany for investments.

 

Perhaps I should draw a world map and colour code by the future energy prices. Then I can use it as an investment resoure.

Europe will be scratched out using a sharp red biro  

[kibuc]

57 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

US inflation yesterday hadn't dropped as expected. If that makes it harder for the Fed to pivot, more likely to raise rates and the real yield on the 10yr improves (is less worse), that's not usually good for PMs. Re 'crypto-style', if people have shorted crypto maybe margin calls are making them sell their other assets like silver etc.

Yet the bonds are going up. Higher inflation + higher bonds = lower real yields which should be supportive of precious metals.

I appreciate its only one of many factors in play, and to be completely frank those real yields should be calculated based on bond prices versus inflation expectations at maturity of those bonds, not current inflation levels, but there used to be much better correlation between bonds and gold (and silver) than we're seeing now.

[Lightscribe]

Disclaimer:

I’ve traded a tiny bit of BTC for Luna for shits and giggles that’s caused the whole Tether debacle. Some of my old work colleagues have literally lost tens of thousands in this shit.

 

Not sure if there’s any truth to this

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

.....

"A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing on top of it”.   A flash crash is a precipice with an investment banker waiting at the bottom!

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Yet the bonds are going up. Higher inflation + higher bonds = lower real yields which should be supportive of precious metals.

I appreciate its only one of many factors in play, and to be completely frank those real yields should be calculated based on bond prices versus inflation expectations at maturity of those bonds, not current inflation levels, but there used to be much better correlation between bonds and gold (and silver) than we're seeing now.

I agree there used to be much better correlation. PM's should have gone a lot higher. (I think I put 'short' on that other post when I meant 'long' for a margin call now while crypto is dropping)

[sancho panza]

Just now, kibuc said:

I've got to say DH comes across much more sensible and much less arrogant in those podcasts than he does in his tidbits on twitter.

If this action in silver continues I'll definitely look into selling my goldies and polymetalic miners (which have held up relatively well) and double down on those beaten up silver diggers because the upside is impossible to ignore.

Funny you should say that,but jsut been looking at the GS ratio over time as I'm looking to try and use it as aprt of a BK rollover checklist.

It does look as if hsitorically we get a decent bottoming of this ahead of stock market downturns.You can't time off it but it's a marker.Two ways for this to play out.

1) I've compeltely missed the topping signs and we're headed straight into the waves

2)Fed eases,we get a wekaer dollar pahse(which rhymes with hsitorical precendet in the main),gold moves higher,Now given I expect the GS to normalize ahead of a downturn in theSM,that leaves silver to do one of two things a) ramp up more than gold b) ramp up a lot mroe than gold.

ref GS price moves,silver always arrives late at the party but parties ahrder than gold.gold moves bigger slower.

Silver                                                                       Gold

July 79 -Jan 80=$8.78 to $49=5.58x                   $290 to $691=2.38x

July 10-Apr 11= $17.85 to $46.26=2.59x              $1190 to $1468=1.23x

Mar 20-Sep 20=$13.95 to $27.4=1.96x                $1599 to $2067=1.29 times

So in short,I'm feeling that a mvoe to silver exposure for us is warranted here as the stocks look good value compared to their goldie counterparts.AS perviosu chart shows some have underperformed the phsycial by a distance.

dyor etc

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/alltime/

[Mapper]

All this talk of melt up and bust has got me thinking, for the first time, about actually selling up and then buying back in at lower prices.

I don't have much money, but a swift run up and good timing to sell, and it'll be G&Ts all round!

My word, I am really considering it.

I think I need to lie down.

[kibuc]

Santacruz started operating its new Bolivian assets, including 13 days of production in Q1, and early signs are good:
 

Consolidated First Quarter 2022 Production Highlights:

• silver 469,829 oz (+47.6% vs Q4 2021 and +44.4% vs Q1 2021);
• lead 1,493 tonnes (+47.5% vs Q4 2021 and +58.0% vs Q1 2021);
• zinc 6,325 tonnes (+83.8% vs Q4 2021 and +176.8% vs Q1 2021);
• copper 419 tonnes (-14.1% vs Q4 2021 and +18.4% vs Q1 2021)
• Consolidated Production expressed in silver equivalent ounces 1,391,590 AgEq; (+ 65.3% vs Q4 2021, and +96.8% vs Q1 2021)

 

Those 13 days contributed 490koz of silver equivalent, which is more than 50% of what their Mexican operations delivered in the entire quarter. That being said, silver is only about 33% of those equivalent ounces, with zinc being a major player.

Santacruz provided another dataset, which includes production Bolivia for the entire Q1, including under previous ownership (Glencore). Consolidate Mexican and Bolivian production for that quarter stood at 4.3Moz silver eq, including 1.5Moz silver. While one may question exact ratios used (silver at $25.6, lol), those are just bonkers numbers for a company at $100Mcap and, admittedly, another $110mil in obligations to repay at $22.5M per annum. My 3rd largest position.

[stoobs]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Disclaimer:

I’ve traded a tiny bit of BTC for Luna for shits and giggles that’s caused the whole Tether debacle. Some of my old work colleagues have literally lost tens of thousands in this shit.

 

Not sure if there’s any truth to this

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Mapper said:

All this talk of melt up and bust has got me thinking, for the first time, about actually selling up and then buying back in at lower prices.

I don't have much money, but a swift run up and good timing to sell, and it'll be G&Ts all round!

My word, I am really considering it.

I think I need to lie down.

Perhaps that is the plan to rinse the plebs out of the market, everything is manipulated to move the money upwards.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, stoobs said:

 

Why would people risk very significant sums of money on one crypto currency? Cult behaviour.

[Axeman123]

Just now, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Why would people risk very significant sums of money on one crypto currency? Cult behaviour.

20% anualised returns is the answer! I saw some moron on twit twat griping about it being so wrong that speculators had "targetted" a crypto that people use for their life-savings, rather than one used for for trading. Just a few months ago people were talking about staking as the future of finance.

[ThoughtCriminal]

33 minutes ago, planit said:

This plus the EU [unelected] wokeness is the reason I will be avoiding Germany for investments.

 

Perhaps I should draw a world map and colour code by the future energy prices. Then I can use it as an investment resoure.

Europe will be scratched out using a sharp red biro  

You joke but that's probably one of the best heuristics for investing over the next 10 years: who has cheap energy?

[Pip321]

7 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Why would people risk very significant sums of money on one crypto currency? Cult behaviour.

Because its called Luna...that's like the the moon or summit. What better reason do you need to your entire life savings into a single 'investment'.  I am looking at ladders all over today....funnily enough non were this 'quality investment' with what I imagine are great fundamentals.   

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

As if by magic ... still listening. 

What I don't get is how to square:

a) Falling dollar with

b) Slowing economy with

c) Falling oil prices but lack of supply with

d) Rising PM prices with

e) Rising stock markets with 

f) Slowing economy

 

It's all getting a bit confusing.

 

Surely a equals c, d  and e all going up, c especially

[Noallegiance]

Just got to the DH bit where his oil price forecast is based on a presumption that supply will increase alongside a demand destruction.

I'd like to see a tete-a-tete between @Cattle Prodand Mr Hunter on this point.

[Barnsey]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

VOD have been beefing up the board lately,looks like ready for some corporate action.

Looking to combine UK arm with Three

[snaga]

15 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Because its called Luna...that's like the the moon or summit. What better reason do you need to your entire life savings into a single 'investment'.  I am looking at ladders all over today....funnily enough non were this 'quality investment' with what I imagine are great fundamentals.   

Luna Currency, or LunaCy for short?

[Axeman123]

Just now, snaga said:

Luna Currency, or LunaCy for short?

The fanboys called themselves lunatics, unironically

[Heart's Ease]

19 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Just got to the DH bit where his oil price forecast is based on a presumption that supply will increase alongside a demand destruction.

I'd like to see a tete-a-tete between @Cattle Prodand Mr Hunter on this point.

He's a lot more relaxed about it than I am! 

Perhaps he assumes that 49.9% Russian oil will get washed together with 51.1% 'other' oil and keep flowing?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

He's a lot more relaxed about it than I am! 

Perhaps he assumes that 49.9% Russian oil will get washed together with 51.1% 'other' oil and keep flowing?

1% for the big man.

[HousePriceMania]

Im $1500 up on apple...Im going another $5K.

I suspect these drops wont be stopping.