Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[moneyscam]

50 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

oh dear…. KSI just lost a sizeable portion of his fortune.

 

Don't worry KSI, Uncle Dave's got you covered.

 

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Exactly. It’s not rocket science. 
 

Seems pretty obvious that the lower the NAS, DOW, S&P and BTC fall below -30% ….they will take everything else with them -  as investors sell other assets to cover margin calls….. it becomes a feedback loop …. A vicious cycle….

This could really be the BK…..

Markets are nowhere near that territory yet  and I expect a lot of the magical conjuring tricks of the past to be repeated in a vain attempt to delay the process. Central banks can delay monetary tightening though it won’t remove supply side pressures in areas such as energy which will destroy demand on their own regardless of what the Fed, BOE and the ECB do. Of course, people will eventually realise that easing the availability of money or credit won’t magically increase the supply of oil, gas, food etc and that Central Banks are not in the driving seat in this crisis. The next attempt at a fix will be attempts by politicians and governments to impose Prices and Incomes policies on the populace in an attempt to “manage the crisis. There are signs these ideas are already being floated before the public. On past evidence these attempts at a fix will probably make the problems in the economy worse.  When that fails I expect it will come down to prayer and examining chicken entrails.

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Yep - your recommendations have ticked along nicely since April 2021…. Remember these? I didn’t buy every one of these mind. I wish !!! (Bought a few though).  Just a monitoring list to check your credentials ! 

You still holding all these @DurhamBorn ?

Bit disappointed about HFEL though…tsk …. tsk….. 🤣 Mind nice dividend.

 

 

Dont hold National Grid or United Utilities ,hold most of the rest.HFEL doing ok when you include divi,i think im down 2% on it.I sold a few VIV and bought Blackrock Latin America.

I should add,go back 3 years,what more do you lot want,blood ?  

[Sidd]

15 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Don't worry KSI, Uncle Dave's got you covered.

 

[GoneDark]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dont hold National Grid or United Utilities ,hold most of the rest.HFEL doing ok when you include divi,i think im down 2% on it.I sold a few VIV and bought Blackrock Latin America.

I should add,go back 3 years,what more do you lot want,blood ?  

Blood? Maybe? How much per barrel?

[afly]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

AT&T are up,im overjoyed about how things are going,massive falls in everything we dont own,small falls in areas im laddering into and little gains in areas im heavy.Id say this slow long self off is very nice.Just need UK to win Eurovision ,well im a contrarian 

Just watched him doing a practice session on the semis and he’s certainly got the singing down which often lets us down. Bit disappointed with the production.

I did have a weird habit of getting EV correct but it all went to pot after the public vote and everyone getting months to get used to the songs beforehand. If it was purely on the night and I was looking for an outsider I'd back Czech Republic. 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

US cancels oil lease sales despite fuel crisis https://www.rt.com/news/555394-biden-cancles-oil-lease-sales/

[Boon]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

oh dear…. KSI just lost a sizeable portion of his fortune.

 

Amazing amount of people declaring losses....... I don't believe that many people are dumb enough to be all in on BTC and of that subset few are dumb enough to be all-in on an altcoin

Also there is the same element of people pleading poverty on the news, suspect a lot exaggerated for effect.

For instance people will always quote the big figure but I wonder what their original investment was? In Jan '21 Luna was $1, so KSI's $2.8m could have cost £28k - maybe someone allocating £1m to crpyto using a spray gun tactic could get this amount. I doubt any reporting of net worth includes uncrystallised crypto gains.

[Errol]

People knew the risks. If they lose, they lose.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

Amazing amount of people declaring losses....... I don't believe that many people are dumb enough to be all in on BTC and of that subset few are dumb enough to be all-in on an altcoin

Also there is the same element of people pleading poverty on the news, suspect a lot exaggerated for effect.

For instance people will always quote the big figure but I wonder what their original investment was? In Jan '21 Luna was $1, so KSI's $2.8m could have cost £28k - maybe someone allocating £1m to crpyto using a spray gun tactic could get this amount. I doubt any reporting of net worth includes uncrystallised crypto gains.

The issue is that it's certain demogrpahics that go into things like crypto/tech bubbles.So if you're 50 and mix in middle aged circles,you may not know anyone trading crypto.However,msut say I've had a number of people ask me my views on crypto and assume that I'm trading it because I'm known to like a punt.

I doubt it's much of an exageration tbh.Msot of the people losing moeny now are retail and some will indeed have stuck their life savings in and bought the higher highs.

If you think this bubble pricking is interesting ,jsut wait till we start finding out who's been swimming naked in BTL/resi property on the back of burgeoning national debts/banking leverage/fiscal deficits.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The issue is that it's certain demogrpahics that go into things like crypto/tech bubbles.So if you're 50 and kix in middle aged circles,you may not know anyone trading crypto.However,msut say I've had a number of people ask me my views on crypto and assume that I'm trading it because I'm known to like a punt.

I doubt it's much of an exageration tbh.Msot of the people losing moeny now are retail and some will indeed have stuck their life savings in and bought the higher highs.

If you think this bubble pricking is interesting ,jsut wait till we start finding out who's been swimming naked in BTL/resi property on the back of burgeoning national debts/banking leverage/fiscal deficits.

My sons friends were all buying it,none owned BAT or any other "boring" share.I think it ties in with house prices ,young people want a quick fix to get a house and not have to work,instead they lose their capital just before houses get cheaper etc.Like you say i still think BTL will be the big one.The amount of ex council workers etc who have stuck their 25% pension lump sums in is amazing.

[sancho panza]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My sons friends were all buying it,none owned BAT or any other "boring" share.I think it ties in with house prices ,young people want a quick fix to get a house and not have to work,instead they lose their capital just before houses get cheaper etc.Like you say i still think BTL will be the big one.The amount of ex council workers etc who have stuck their 25% pension lump sums in is amazing.

BTL will be the main one,people getting margin calls,then finding out their family home is in the default line when their tenants don't pay/f*** off without paying.

Think there'll be some disastrous stories in retial/pubs too though.

just heard,local brewery here in Leics called Everards....famous for getting tenants in then upping the costs when they do well.Hence high turnover as the new tenants find out running pubs is 70 hours work for 37.5 hours pay.

ANyway,new LL's at pub in village near Liecester.Two ladies,one of whom was heard to say to punter on her first day,

'don't be to harsh,I haven't pulled a pint before'....I shit you not...

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

And it won't work in the UK, that is the greatest piece of marketing I've ever seen.

So you are saying my 100% profit on AJ Lucas so far needs to be grabbed and taken off the table?

[working woman]

Bitcoin. 

I don't own any, but have watched from afar and feel sorry for ordinary people, who have sold at a loss following the recent down trend. 

I'm a beginner in Technical analysis and like to look at charts and had a look at the Bitcoin chart in US$. 

The price for Bitcoin in US$ is currently in an interesting place. For the 3rd time in the last 2 years it is testing resistance at 30K,-  it has just dipped below. Will it make it back up above 30K and continue on up ? Or break down through the 30K resistance line. The next few days will be very interesting.  It also looks like there has been a massive "double top" in the last couple of years, although the two peaks do not reach the exact same highs.  Maybe it is a "Head and Shoulders" pattern in formation, and if the price goes above 30K, it will zoom up to make the 2nd shoulder before coming back down again. 

News from the (shop) frontline / no fears of recession yet.

Really busy, women over 40 buying clothes for their holidays. A recent Sunday took double normal amount. No sign of people worried about recessions / energy bills here yet.  

The 17 year old weekend girl handed in her notice and didn't work it. She was on min. wage for her age £4.80/hr. and got a job in the local coffee shop for £8/hr. I thought good for her.  The Manager wasn't happy, but I doubt she even thought  to keep her by matching her new wage.  

We currently have 3 vacancies, various levels. Adverts in the window, company website, and local facebook groups.  Not one person interested / dropped their CV in.  People are not desperate for money/work yet. 

Oil supplies

Thanks to all the oil experts posting their information on production, shortages etc. The world really is in a mess.

Candles

@Harley That was an interesting/unusual candle chart pattern you posted recently.  It looked like the price went crazy, with sharp moves up, down, up again. Had a frenzied feel. What happened next, what did the next candle look like?

I like candles  - for my home- the wax kind, recently bought a big bag  of tealights for £2. The lady on the till asked if I was expecting power cuts.  I laughed and said well with everything going on in the world at the moment, you never know. Hmm, maybe I should stock up while they are cheap.

Jane Austen Quote.  This thread has it all. Pizzas now JA. Thanks to the person who recently posted a quote, it made my day to see it.  Currently reading P&P for the 2nd time. Mr Darcy only had candle light................Maybe we are going back to those days.  Talking of those days, the Regency era, now that Prince Charles is, I think,  acting as Regent, are we now living in a new Regency Era .............

 

 

 

 

[wherebee]

16 hours ago, wherebee said:

One suggestion: If you want to, testing your broker/investment house withdrawl times in times of stress is worthwhile.

I've pulled a fair chunk out of interactive brokers, submitted yesterday.  I will see how long it takes to hit my main bank account.

Remember the issue of return OF capital is more important than return ON capital.  I did get stuck once where I couldn't get funds out of a broker because their system said there was a question over my ID.

If things turn really shit, you don't want to become a creditor at the bottom of the queue.

Money hit my bank account this morning.  So under 48 hours turnaround.  Happy with that.  One thing to think about is on IB, when you liquidate a stock you get it in the exchange related currency; to withdraw you have to convert which is another step.  It also might give you extra shekels whilst a currency is high (or low as with the pound right now)

[kibuc]

Alexco with understably poor Q1 financials (although the numbers make you stop for a moment even if you expected them) but also with a rather downbeat update on crurrent ramp-up progress and 2022 outlook. While I understand it's Nauman style to keep bullshit to minimum, I don't think the market will like it very much. My 2nd biggest position already so not planning to add on minor drops but might take another bite if it falls off a cliff.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, working woman said:

 

@Harley That was an interesting/unusual candle chart pattern you posted recently.  It looked like the price went crazy, with sharp moves up, down, up again. Had a frenzied feel. What happened next, what did the next candle look like?

Nice post ta.  The sort of boots on the ground intel that makes this thread.  IBTL gapped up.  Seemed as much a currency effect with cable at a serious low than the underlying which is flat.  So yes, a frenzy.  I had it down as a BK haven.  I never thought about the currency side of things too much.  Well, not this much!  Up 4% for the week.  Room to run?

[Democorruptcy]

On 11/05/2022 at 14:48, sancho panza said:

I'm looking at thsi cahrt,pondering the sector they're in,the RPI + they can whack on bills and the 30 year bond they issued in 2020 at 3% and jsut wondering where the downside is.

Decl:long around the 125 level.

dyor natch

Jeffries downgraded them today from buy to hold dropping the price target from 150 to 125

Quote

 

Jefferies downgraded Vodafone on Friday to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 125p from 150p as it pointed to "intractable headwinds".
The bank said Vodafone is in a tight spot that necessitates cautious guidance next week. While it recognises the defensive attractions of large-cap telco, Vodafone's credentials are "undermined by forecast risk and a strategic plan not playing out".

"On 17 May, Vodafone will issue new FY22/23 guidance against a backdrop that is getting more challenging," it said.

"There is no competitive let-up in most markets, and a high profile attempt to lead industry price indexation is not getting far. Vodafone has been driving efficiency programmes hard for many years. Its lean cost base lacks the obvious inflation safety valves that may be available to incumbent peers (overstaffing, duplication, legacy)."

Jefferies estimated that energy costs could rise around €400m per annum in FY23 and FY24 if spot prices hold.

"Feasible 3% wage growth adds around €150m pa after years of flat/declining organic staff costs," it said.

The bank said its below consensus EBITDAaL forecasts still count on efficiency gains in other cost categories and organic service revenue growth holding up at +2% year-on-year.

"We would be sceptical of a more bullish free cash flow outlook predicated on an optimistic capex scenario," it said.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vodafone-group-plc-usd0.20-2021/share-news

 

 

[Harley]

A nice surprise this morning.  I guess that fundamental yap does matter, sometimes!  Not that the techs weren't attractive!  Hope it holds until the div!

[A_P]

Cryptocurrencies are a misnomer. Nothing but hot potato electronic tokens being passed around. The one true cryptocurrency XMR/Monero is rarely spoken about. Fungible and untraceable. The FCA have laid out their position on XMR.

imo CBDC's will be coming down the pipe and the global narrative is already playing out. Herding the naive, gullible and desperate into this and causing mass pain is just one of the minor steps. 12+% APY for doing nothing? The writing was on the wall.

Now when my grass cutter who is in his 50's last summer brings up "crypto" I raised an internal eyebrow. He made it quite clear everyone he knew was at home on their phones pretending to be the next Gordon Gekko.

Personally I wouldn't believe that picture from the gootube celeb.

[Harley]

Listening to a podcast yesterday (Palisades?) and mention made of the paper versus physical split on PMs.  It increasingly feels like two worlds.  Something I've been thinking about, especially when considering the silver premiums, and then the guy says it:  they may well split and the physical will destroy the paper.  Something to incorporate into our plans?  And, importantly in this context, are ETFs paper or physical?  At what price would they be redeemed (their closure due to the stresses of such a divergence would make this possible)? 

[ThoughtCriminal]

@Cattle ProdBet you wish you were in the oil industry back then to see these boys in action. Imagine elf and safety seeing this? 

 

"So yeah, we're gonna blow this mother fucker open with machine guns and bazookas. Any questions?" 😂

[Boon]

One thing I think is that a few crypto boys losing billions is not mass pain. Most of the market is BTC and that has lost half its market cap. Has more value been lost in the tech shares? A lot of these are down by much more percentage wise and bigger disasters for investors than bitcoin ever was. 

The real mass pain will go largely unnoticed and unreported by the media, the middle and lower classes that will be squeezed. I can't help thinking that 'cost of living crisis' is being covered now in advance so it is has less impact when the real shit arrives.

[Option5]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

@Cattle ProdBet you wish you were in the oil industry back then to see these boys in action. Imagine elf and safety seeing this? 

 

"So yeah, we're gonna blow this mother fucker open with machine guns and bazookas. Any questions?" 😂

We still use explosive charges to perforate the tubing to access the oil/gas etc. They even call the device used a perforation gun.

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My sons friends were all buying it,none owned BAT or any other "boring" share.I think it ties in with house prices ,young people want a quick fix to get a house and not have to work,instead they lose their capital just before houses get cheaper etc.Like you say i still think BTL will be the big one.The amount of ex council workers etc who have stuck their 25% pension lump sums in is amazing.

I think you are being a bit harsh there on young people suggesting they don't want to work (like you now... and I never wanted to ). All the props have meant house prices have run away from them, mortgage terms have extended, it's an expensive very long term commitment before interest rises. BATS wouldn't have made enough progress for them against house prices in the covid bounce, it was £55 not that long ago. I see it more as desperate times must have called for desperate measures and feel sorry for them.