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Crack-up Boom 2022 onwards


Jesus Wept
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On 29/11/2021 at 10:32, spygirl said:

The yare paying the middle mangers waaaay too much. But to keep the pay differential, they are offering the in demand skills stupidly low money.

Whereas in the private sector, they take great software people and promote them into middle management positions in order to pay them more money.

Either that, or the good techies leave and come back as contractors on salary x3.

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9 hours ago, spygirl said:

date-driven web applications

Hell I'll do that for massive 30k. Because of my long experience I can exclusively reveal today is 30 November do I get paid now?

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On 30/11/2021 at 09:57, spygirl said:

A topical and timely example - 

MI6 boss warns of China 'debt traps and data traps'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59474365

He aint Smiley anymore.

A degree in ancient German languages no longer cuts it versus Ruskies and China techo-storm troop.

MI6 chief Richard Moore has warned of China's "debt traps and data traps" in his first live broadcast interview.

Mr Moore - known as "C" - told BBC Radio 4's Today programme these traps threatened to erode sovereignty and have prompted defensive measures.

 

TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT At GCHQ, we’re proud to offer an inclusive and supportive working environment that encourages open minds and attitudes. As an organisation that values and nurtures talent, we are committed to helping you fulfil your potential. You’re not expected to come to us with a wealth of knowledge or skills on day one. We invest in our people - providing technical mentoring, training and support. ABOUT US As one of Britain’s intelligence agencies, we unlock the complex world of communications to make a real difference to the safety of the nation. We work closely with our partners in the intelligence community to safeguard Britain’s people, interests, and businesses from various threats. Think serious organised crime, such as people and drugs trafficking, or terrorism and cyber-attacks. It’s challenging and varied work that you won’t find anywhere else. At GCHQ, diversity and inclusion are critical to our mission. To protect the UK, we need a truly diverse workforce that reflects the society we serve. This includes diversity in every sense of the word: those with different backgrounds, ethnicities, gender identities, sexual orientations, ways of thinking and those with disabilities or neurodiverse conditions. We therefore welcome and encourage applications from everyone, including those from groups that are under-represented in our workforce. BENEFITS PACKAGE We have an excellent benefits package which includes 25 days holiday as standard (pro rata) increasing to 30 days after five years, various flexible working patterns and part time working options available, generous pension contributions and parental leave, and three days volunteering leave as well as flexibility to move to a new role/area after 2-3 years. THE ROLES Infrastructure Engineer (available in all locations) You’ll design, implement, support and maintain a complex and technologically advanced IT Infrastructure needed to meet the demands and pace of the full suite of missions across the intelligence agencies. Network Engineer (Cheltenham and London only) Designing, building, commissioning and supporting networks and making use of all the Network Management, Automation and Software Defined Network toolset to do so. If you understand how systems are configured, defended and thereby open to threats then we want to speak with you. Software Engineer (available in all locations) To work as part of an Agile DevOps team responsible for maintaining, developing and delivering bespoke software solutions and date-driven web applications. The role will focus heavily on automating manual processes and modernising legacy monolithic applications. REQUIREMENTS We’re looking for enthusiastic and motivated individuals from all backgrounds, with technical skills and a constant desire to stay on top of technology. It doesn’t matter where you are in your career, as long as you are interested in learning or have experience of working in a more technical role. You should be good at prioritising and able to remain focussed under challenging circumstances. A competent communicator you’ll expertly share knowledge and insight, with a range of customers and be comfortable working in small to medium-sized teams. Along with a passion for technology, an essential requirement for this role is - • Relevant work experience in an IT focused role and/or a STEM Degree It would be advantageous if you also have experience and/or interest in any of the following - • Experience of and interest in IT • Powershell, Exchange and M365 & EOP Support Skills • Directory Services, ISODE, DLP and MTAs • On-Premises and Cloud-Based messaging solutions • Programming languages such as Java, JavaScript, C++, Python, Node.js • Virtual Infrastructure such as VMware, Hyper V, AWS, Azure, Citrix, Microsoft RDS • Automated Deployment Technologies such as Puppet Ansible, Terraform • Operating Systems such as Linux, Windows, MAC os • Authentication and Authorisation technologies such as Oauth, PKI and Directory Services. • CISCO, WAN/LAN Technologies • LAN/WAN/Firewall technologies, e.g CISCO, JUNIPER • Agile Development Techniques You must also meet our nationality, residency, and security requirements. You can find more details here. SALARY £30,831 (package includes basic salary and concessionary payment) and we may offer you an additional one-off recruitment bonus which is dependent on skills and experience.

 

The average price for a property in Cheltenham is £381482 over the last year. Use Rightmove online house price checker tool to find out exactly how much ...

 

Im actually a bit shocked they are asking for Windows skills - hopefully these are not for inhouse systems.

Meanwhile China are probably battery farming thousands, if not millions, of coders for £10 a day. Who do we think's going to win this particular battle?!

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On 21/11/2021 at 17:27, Jesus Wept said:

What Is a Crack-Up Boom? 

A crack-up boom is an economic crisis that involves a recession in the real economy and a collapse of the monetary system due to continual credit expansion and resulting in unsustainable, rapid price increases. This concept of a crack-up boom was developed by Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises as a part of the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT).1
 

The crack-up boom is characterized by two key features: 1) excessively expansionary monetary policy that, in addition to the normal consequences described in ABCT, leads to out-of-control inflationexpectations and 2) a resulting bout of hyperinflation which ends in the abandonment of the currency by market participants and a simultaneous recession or depression.2

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • A crack-up boom is the crash of the credit and monetary system due to continual credit expansion and price increases that cannot be sustained long-term.
  • In the face of excessive credit expansion, consumers' inflation expectations accelerate to the point that money becomes worthless and the economic system crashes.
  • The term was coined by Ludwig von Mises, a noted member of the Austrian School of Economics and personal witness to the damages of hyperinflation.

Understanding a Crack-Up Boom 

The crack-up boom develops out of the same process of credit expansion and the resulting distortion of the economy that occurs during the normal boom phase of Austrian business cycle theory. In the crack-up boom, the central bank attempts to sustain the boom indefinitely without regard to consequences, such as inflation and asset price bubbles. The problem comes when the government continuously pours more and more money, injecting it into the economy to give it a short-term boost, which eventually triggers a fundamental breakdown in the economy. In their efforts to prevent any downturn in the economy, monetary authorities continue to expand the supply of money and credit at an accelerating pace and avoid turning off the taps of money supply until it is too late.

In Austrian business cycle theory, in the normal course of an economic boom driven by the expansion of money and credit the structure of the economy becomes distorted in ways that eventually result in shortages of various commodities and types of labor, which then lead to increasing consumer price inflation. The rising prices and limited availability of necessary inputs and labor put pressure on businesses and causes a rash of failures of various investment projects and business bankruptcies. In ABCT this is known as the real resource crunch, which triggers the turning point in the economy from boom to bust.

 

As this crisis point approaches, the central bank has a choice: either to accelerate the expansion of the money supply in order to try to help businesses pay for the increasing prices and wages they are faced with and delay the recession, or to refrain from doing so at the risk of allowing some businesses to fail, asset prices to fall, and disinflation (and possibly a recession or depression) to occur. The crack-up boom occurs when the central bank chooses and sticks with the first option.

 

Economist Friedrich Hayek famously described this situation as like grabbing a "tiger by the tail."3Once the central bank decides to accelerate the process of credit expansion and inflation in order to head off any recession risk, then it continually faces the same choice of either accelerating the process further or facing an even greater risk of recession as distortions build in the real economy. 

 

As part of this process, consumer prices rise at an accelerating rate. Based on current price increases and market participants' understanding of central bank policy, consumer expectations of future inflation also rise. These create positive feedback that leads to accelerating price inflation that can far outstrip the rate of central bank money expansion and become what is then known as hyperinflation.

 

With each subsequent round of credit expansion and price increases, people can no longer afford the high prices, so the central bank must expand even more to accommodate these prices, which pushes the prices even higher. Instead of rising a few percent every year, consumer prices can rise by 10%, 50%, 100%, or more in a matter of weeks or days. The value of the currency depreciates drastically, and the financial system faces extreme stress.

 

The "crack-up" part of the crack-up boom occurs as money in the economy begins to lose its economic function as money. Price inflation accelerates to the point that money fails to fulfill its economic function and people abandon it in favor of barter or other forms of money. Under normal circumstances, money functions as a generally accepted medium of exchange, a unit of account, a store of value, and a standard of deferred payment. Hyperinflation undermines all of these functions, and as market participants stop using and accepting the money, the system of indirect exchange based on the use of money that makes up a modern economy "cracks-up."4

 

At this point, further expansion of the supply of money and credit by the central bank, no matter how rapid, has no effect as the economic stimulus or staves off recession. The economy turns the corner into recession despite the central bank's intention as the monetary system simultaneously breaks down completely, compounding the economic crisis.

 
History of the Crack-Up Boom 

The developer of the idea of the crack-up boom, Ludwig von Mises, who was an advocate of laissez-faire economics, a staunch opponent of all forms of socialism and interventionism, and a noted member of the Austrian School of Economics, wrote extensively on monetary economics and inflation during his career.

In the early 1920s, von Mises witnessed and decried hyperinflation in his native Austria and neighboring Germany.5 Von Mises played an instrumental role in helping Austria to avoid a crack-up boom but could do nothing but sit back and watch as the German Reichsmark collapsed one year later. He was adamant that not keeping credit expansion in check could pave the way for a deadlier dose of hyperinflation that would eventually bring the economy to its knees.

 

Von Mises describes the process later in his book Human Action. "f once public opinion is convinced that the increase in the quantity of money will continue and never come to an end, and that, consequently, the prices of all commodities and services will not cease to rise, everybody becomes eager to buy as much as possible and to restrict his cash holding to a minimum size," he said. "For under these circumstances, the regular costs incurred by holding cash are increased by the losses caused by the progressive fall in purchasing power."2

 

Examples of a Crack-Up Boom 

Several economies, other than Germany, have caved in after a period of credit expansion and hyperinflation, including Argentina, Russia, Yugoslavia, and Zimbabwe.2 A more recent example is Venezuela. Years of corruption and misfiring government policies have led the South American country's economy to collapse in a drastic fashion. As a result, millions of Venezuelans face poverty, food shortages, and blackouts.6 According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Venezuela's economy contracted by over 35% between 2013 and 2017. Rampant inflation hasn't helped.

 

By mid-2019, inflation in the country was reported to be as high as 10 million percent, meaning that a product that once cost the equivalent of one bolivar went on to cost the equivalent of 10 million bolivars.7 Things have gotten so bad that a monthly salary in Venezuela was reportedly not enough to even cover the cost of a single gallon of milk.8

 

Venezuela Inflation Rate: 1980—Present

A5B0AB9A-7D12-4322-987D-ED417ECA1CF7.thumb.jpeg.28aa0c0a937a2e20738ae5e4cad74848.jpeg

 

Special Considerations 

A crack-up boom is something that can only happen in an economy that relies on fiat money (in either paper or electronic form) and (usually) fiduciary media, as opposed to the gold standard or other physical commodity money, because the available stock commodity places a physical limit on the quantity of money that can be issued and the market discipline imposed by a convertible gold standard helps prevent the overissuance of credit.2 In the event that they ever become money, electronic cryptocurrencies whose underlying algorithms place inflexible limits on the quantity and rate that new units can be created (or mined) may provide a similar benefit of preventing hyperinflation and a crack-up boom.

 

Fantastic post. Really interesting and the parallels with the current financial shitstorm here and, more importantly, in the USA are a real warning.

Good points made by @Frank Hovis and others on here about promotion, salaries and the shit, absolutely dog shit salaries being offered for technical skills, considering what they are asking. 

I'm seeing adverts for real quite high level computation skills and the salaries barely reaching 40k, fuck that.  

In a similar situation myself (well, I was until I found out my funding ends at the end of March) where I wouldn't consider going for another higher band job as the sheer level of crap that you are lumped with does in no way compensate for the rather marginal increase in salary.  

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PatronizingGit
On 30/11/2021 at 12:20, No One said:

£30k for Python :wanker: they can go pound sand

They probably will....pound the sand of Pakistan for immigrant workers with freshly printed qualifications.

They might not be any good, or even worth the paper they are written on. But once in, the immigrant becomes the taxpayers responsibility, not any individual business, so what incentive does the business really have to make sure the immigrant is what they say they are. Or without serious character/personal flaws (not exactly a rarity from our immigrant sender countrys)

Start forcing employers to pay for all possible consequences of sponsoring immigrants in, and see how keen they are.

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PatronizingGit
On 02/12/2021 at 16:05, Frank Hovis said:

 

RPI has gone up three fold since 1987.

Semi-senior finance jobs were £35k then so should now be paying £105k; instead they're paying £40k - £50k.

Inflation has been the cloak under which working people in this country have been utterly mugged.

Nobody should be jealous or think it excessive that a tube driver is on £50k a year as that is only £17k at 1987 prices.

We've been robbed. But so steadily and stealthily that people simply don't realise it.

Is it different anywhere? I occassional look on German, Irish jobs boards etc, things dont look that different.

One would imagine the hostility to foreigners in Japan would assist wage growth there, but it doesnt seem to have. House prices might be lower than with immigrants, but thats only really a help in the depopulating areas. Tokyo etc are still unaffordable for most.

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On 30/11/2021 at 12:20, No One said:

£30k for Python :wanker: they can go pound sand

There's thousands of Abduls and Tyrones who can barely speak English delivering food via deliveroo et al making more than that. Plus not a single one will be paying tax.

Even for a half decent salary of £50k+ as a developer they expect a shopping list CV "rock star" where not only are you meant to know about a dozen languages + gazillion front/back end frameworks + DB expert + sysadmin. Honestly they can go fuck themselves and is the reason I'll never go back into commercial IT.

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On 04/12/2021 at 01:13, PatronizingGit said:

Is it different anywhere? I occassional look on German, Irish jobs boards etc, things dont look that different.

One would imagine the hostility to foreigners in Japan would assist wage growth there, but it doesnt seem to have. House prices might be lower than with immigrants, but thats only really a help in the depopulating areas. Tokyo etc are still unaffordable for most.

Yes ive never gone in for blaming immigrants as why English property prices are so high, thats predominantly down to white middle class men, and the Paki cunt in no.11

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32 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes ive never gone in for blaming immigrants as why English property prices are so high, thats predominantly down to white middle class men, and the Paki cunt in no.11

Get the basics right - he's Indian. 

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2 hours ago, gibbon said:

There's thousands of Abduls and Tyrones who can barely speak English delivering food via deliveroo et al making more than that. Plus not a single one will be paying tax.

Even for a half decent salary of £50k+ as a developer they expect a shopping list CV "rock star" where not only are you meant to know about a dozen languages + gazillion front/back end frameworks + DB expert + sysadmin. Honestly they can go fuck themselves and is the reason I'll never go back into commercial IT.

Every dev I know on over £50K is also managing other devs, which can be a major headache in and of itself.

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On 02/12/2021 at 16:05, Frank Hovis said:

RPI has gone up three fold since 1987.

Semi-senior finance jobs were £35k then so should now be paying £105k; instead they're paying £40k - £50k.

Inflation has been the cloak under which working people in this country have been utterly mugged.

Nobody should be jealous or think it excessive that a tube driver is on £50k a year as that is only £17k at 1987 prices.

We've been robbed. But so steadily and stealthily that people simply don't realise it.

 

Yes I think the reason my folks think my brother and I are on 'good wages' at £40-ish-K is that they're still thinking about what that money was worth in about 1997 i.e. when £80K bought a really nice semi-detached house.

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3 hours ago, gibbon said:

There's thousands of Abduls and Tyrones who can barely speak English delivering food via deliveroo et al making more than that. Plus not a single one will be paying tax.

Even for a half decent salary of £50k+ as a developer they expect a shopping list CV "rock star" where not only are you meant to know about a dozen languages + gazillion front/back end frameworks + DB expert + sysadmin. Honestly they can go fuck themselves and is the reason I'll never go back into commercial IT.

I know theres a deliveroo thread.

How long before HMRC start special foreign gig worker tax code?

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On 02/12/2021 at 16:05, Frank Hovis said:

 

RPI has gone up three fold since 1987.

Inflation has been the cloak under which working people in this country have been utterly mugged.

We've been robbed. But so steadily and stealthily that people simply don't realise it.


As my boss mentioned to me last week “interest rates are 0.1%,  inflation is 4%.   Just get the biggest mortgage you can,  it’s free money”

Then you read the BoE are removing the lending checks they implemented when “lessons were learned” after the last crash:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1531820/Housing-bubble-warning-Bank-of-England-mortgage-lending-rules
 

People don’t care what they earn, as long as the bank gives them money and their house goes up in value..

Deja vu..

 

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On 30/11/2021 at 12:22, spygirl said:

Civil service management have to get used to technical skills being paid far more than managers.

 

Indeed.   From the other side of the fence I think far too much value is placed on things like enterprise systems,  but,  it is the current corporate fashion and I don’t begrudge anyone who has the skill to offer the market what they need.

As a middle manager,  I welcome the increasing return of value to skilled professions.  It shows people have value,  not just token jobs to be given on behalf of the tax payer to whoever is the right sex/colour/trouser size this week.  
 

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3 hours ago, Libspero said:


As my boss mentioned to me last week “interest rates are 0.1%,  inflation is 4%.   Just get the biggest mortgage you can,  it’s free money”

Then you read the BoE are removing the lending checks they implemented when “lessons were learned” after the last crash:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1531820/Housing-bubble-warning-Bank-of-England-mortgage-lending-rules
 

People don’t care what they earn, as long as the bank gives them money and their house goes up in value..

Deja vu..

 

BoE doesnt set medium to long interest rates.

 

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19 minutes ago, spygirl said:

BoE doesnt set medium to long interest rates.

 

Self cert incoming. Still some yet to hoover up, the last of um. Can’t be much longer, as it seems to me they know, and from experience, I can smell their BS and fear. Tick tock. Not long now.

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24 minutes ago, spygirl said:

BoE doesnt set medium to long interest rates.

 

No.. you are quite correct,  and mortgage rates are 3-4%.   But it’s the bubble mentality/mania

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Self cert incoming. Still some yet to hoover up, the last of um. Can’t be much longer, as it seems to me they know, and from experience, I can smell their BS and fear. Tick tock. Not long now.

Youll never see self cert ever again.

 

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2 minutes ago, Libspero said:

No.. you are quite correct,  and mortgage rates are 3-4%.   But it’s the bubble mentality/mania

To be honest the link is just wishful thinking/lobbying be the mortgage industry.

MMR rules are reviewed regularly. Theyve not been changed so far, tweaks have made them more onerous.

The stress test rate of 6% is not hugely far off the SVRs 

 

 

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12 hours ago, spygirl said:

I know theres a deliveroo thread.

How long before HMRC start special foreign gig worker tax code?

 

Not going to happen. They are all meant to be registered self employed (I'd estimated less than 1 in 20 bother). Only thing HMRC can do is come to an agreement with Deliveroo to have the details of their drivers handed over, like they did with ebay and ebay sellers. Still won't matter. Most here on dodgy visas, moving around constantly. HMRC wouldn't even be able to find them let alone prosecute them. It's the same reason most of them on scooters drive like maniacs, because they are untouchable. If they get in the real shit, like some have for injuring pedestrians/cyclists/causing major collisions they catch a flight home the next day.

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57 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Youll never see self cert ever again.

 

Why? It seems to me if they want it to continue, they will allow it. 

Just now, Phil said:

Why? It seems to me if they want it to continue, they will allow it. 

And if not self cert, something else in name only 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why? It seems to me if they want it to continue, they will allow it. 

And if not self cert, something else in name only 

Self cert stopped dead in 2008. Killed with MMR in 2014ish.

 

7 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Agent informed me at weekend home finance becoming harder to obtain.

Rates are going up.

Credit is being withdrawn.

Banks are bracing.

 

 

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