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Property predictions 2022


sarahbell
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Prices really have to start falling. Else the economy will implode. 

But rental EPC will be raised a notch in accordance with the hot air expelled at COP26. 
This is fairer to renters who have no control over eco-adjustments to their homes.

Large barny open plan houses will fall in price faster as gas prices rise.

The houses with solar etc will be more of a premium - but this is tiny as most of them are still not very eco-EPC.

Rightmove will introduce a search by EPC option. 


 

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AlfredTheLittle

Top end properties all bought up by second homers, leaving everyone else scrambling for the rest, which shoot up in price as people panic about being left homeless. Huge shortage of rental properties so rents shoot up as well. Hotels all block booked by councils for the homeless and refugees, so Airbnb rates go ballistic, driving up prices even more.

Average house price hits £400k before the end of 2022.

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With a crooked smile
9 hours ago, sarahbell said:

The houses with solar etc will be more of a premium

I'm not sure. Had a look at getting them installed and thought the pay back period was to long in North of England 

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4 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

I'm not sure. Had a look at getting them installed and thought the pay back period was to long in North of England 

The very rural ones will all need a "detach from mains" switch system with batteries. 

There's no equivalent of  a "power cut" map like the env agency flooding map?

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10 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Top end properties all bought up by second homers, leaving everyone else scrambling for the rest, which shoot up in price as people panic about being left homeless. Huge shortage of rental properties so rents shoot up as well. Hotels all block booked by councils for the homeless and refugees, so Airbnb rates go ballistic, driving up prices even more.

Average house price hits £400k before the end of 2022.

That was last year down here.

God help us all next year.

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With a crooked smile

Difficult to tell but I was in London Monday to Wednesday this week. Mon and Tues like a ghost town most restaurants around Clerkenwell closed. Weds few people in streets in rush hour but busyish when I headed for train station at about 15:00.

I feel there's a recession coming. London can't continue like this. 

That said lots of deals being signed at the moment but feel we are having to work harder to get the business. 

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Maybe I'm being mad but IMO I just don't think the government foresaw the stamp duty holiday having the effect it did, they wanted prices to go up, but not by miles. They feared the housing market going into a tailspin, like the stock market does when there are no buyers. But they misread the trends. 

A large price correction would make many people unhappy and since house prices are life for many, would equate the government with doing a bad job.

Another price boost would shut more people out of the market, basically anyone trading up from flat to house, as the houses have gotten the gains. Those people also will dislike the government.

You can see the way Gove has backtracked on the cladding shit, but still left it ambiguous. If house prices slide next year you can sure he will cough up as some kind of boost for the market.

My prediction is a very small gain, 0%-2%. Broken down, London/SE and the more expensive areas fall but the cheaper areas rise = can be explained away by 'levelling up in action'

Of course everywhere will be below the inflation rate. Most people will be too dumb to realise what is happening.

Edited by Boon
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Basically depends on interest rates, if they go above 1.5% then a crash is on the cards.

If not then i can see prices going slightly lower and just stagnating.

Maybe Boris leaving and someone who isn't in tis cabinet taking over would have new ideas, and realise getting the young into houses they own id the only way they'll win future elections.

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PatronizingGit
2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Basically depends on interest rates, if they go above 1.5% then a crash is on the cards.

If not then i can see prices going slightly lower and just stagnating.

Maybe Boris leaving and someone who isn't in tis cabinet taking over would have new ideas, and realise getting the young into houses they own id the only way they'll win future elections.

I usually still read MISH and tickerguy for economic news.

Tickerguy seems to think the supply chain disorder is baked in for a few years yet & inflation will continue

Mish thinks, like in 2008/9, it will be premature & foolish to raise rates, as the rising cost of living (ie $4 gas back then) will snap the economy back into recession & inflation will take care of itself.

 

Main difference this time around is though inflation is higher than 2008/9, wages seem to be on a tear. That wasnt the case in 2008/9 when wages were falling in real AND nominal terms for a year or two. Dunno what that means, other than, bad as it is, spunking billions on dodgy furlough & track and trace schemes is still more productive & beneficial to working people than giving billions direct to banksters/ keep subsidizing the london economy. 

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It's tricky because there are so many different sub-markets. In many places - not all up north - prices have gone nowhere in the last 15 years. A HPC in these markets would be insane.

I could see a HPC in many new build flats due to various circumstances, e.g. over-supply, cladding, quality of life, etc.

Some of the top 10% prices may be frothy and see a collapse - not enough buyers to sustain the current levels.

I think low volumes will help hold up prices in the middle. 

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11 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Difficult to tell but I was in London Monday to Wednesday this week. Mon and Tues like a ghost town most restaurants around Clerkenwell closed. Weds few people in streets in rush hour but busyish when I headed for train station at about 15:00.

I feel there's a recession coming. London can't continue like this. 

That said lots of deals being signed at the moment but feel we are having to work harder to get the business. 

We've a thread for that -

 

Majority of London is now foriegn born. Majority of those are reliant on bennies.

Majority of London workers commute in. Theyve stopped commuting in, leaving few 100k of EE/EUers not doing much at sandwich bar.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, CVG said:

It's tricky because there are so many different sub-markets. In many places - not all up north - prices have gone nowhere in the last 15 years. A HPC in these markets would be insane.

I could see a HPC in many new build flats due to various circumstances, e.g. over-supply, cladding, quality of life, etc.

Some of the top 10% prices may be frothy and see a collapse - not enough buyers to sustain the current levels.

I think low volumes will help hold up prices in the middle. 

Im not expecting a full-on HPC in Scarbs.

I am expecting another 20-30% off prices, which is a fall rather than a crash.

I expect the nominal prices to go back to where they in mid to late 90s.

The Brown benefit boom has serious undermined the wealth and earning capability of ~50% of the under 50s.

Chuck in fuckwittery like IO BTL and thats all thats been happening last ~20 years.

 

 

 

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With a crooked smile
2 hours ago, spygirl said:

am expecting another 20-30% off prices, which is a fall rather than a crash.

It's interesting my thoughts having been through a few recessions is that it's rarely really 20-30% off. Sure a house might sell for 20-30% less than a property may have historically sold for in that road but its not comparing apples with apples. 

The 20-30% off sale in a financial crash is often a really distressed sale landlord gone busy type thing where nothings been done maintenance wise for years and it always would have gone for 10-15% less anyway. 

There might be a few bargains but they will be closer to historic averages. 

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Just now, With a crooked smile said:

It's interesting my thoughts having been through a few recessions is that it's rarely really 20-30% off. Sure a house might sell for 20-30% less than a property may have historically sold for in that road but its not comparing apples with apples. 

The 20-30% off sale in a financial crash is often a really distressed sale landlord gone busy type thing where nothings been done maintenance wise for years and it always would have gone for 10-15% less anyway. 

There might be a few bargains but they will be closer to historic averages. 

Scabby is suffering from a lack of under 50s with well paying employment. And too many property owning iaps dying.

It's a simple mismatch of demand and supply.

The south faces a more painful adjustment, with loss of mass of well paying finsec jobs, v similar to deindustrilisation of north in early 80s.

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With a crooked smile
32 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I am going for up +10%

And that's assuming we have a tanking economy, rising interest rates and rising inflation for at least half of next year(probably longer)

I recon flat to 5% nationally. But tbf it's a complete guess and it could be minus 10 or plus 20

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I'm thinking a crack-up boom in almost everything for the first half of the year, with houses carried along in the up-draft, but perhaps not crazily so. If David Hunter's economic bust does indeed materialise in 2022, that will be a credit event, so the housing market should be hit hard. My guess, based on no analysis or historical correlations, would be 5% up by the middle of the year, but down 10% (or more) from current levels by year-end 2022. That's for the South East, where prices are way out of whack with wages. For cheaper areas, which have been languishing for years, I don't even have a guess.

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Bobthebuilder
4 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

I'm thinking a crack-up boom in almost everything for the first half of the year, with houses carried along in the up-draft, but perhaps not crazily so. If David Hunter's economic bust does indeed materialise in 2022, that will be a credit event, so the housing market should be hit hard. My guess, based on no analysis or historical correlations, would be 5% up by the middle of the year, but down 10% (or more) from current levels by year-end 2022. That's for the South East, where prices are way out of whack with wages. For cheaper areas, which have been languishing for years, I don't even have a guess.

I would go for the largest falls in the south, 10% at least in the southwest.

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27 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

I'm thinking a crack-up boom in almost everything for the first half of the year, with houses carried along in the up-draft, but perhaps not crazily so. If David Hunter's economic bust does indeed materialise in 2022, that will be a credit event, so the housing market should be hit hard. My guess, based on no analysis or historical correlations, would be 5% up by the middle of the year, but down 10% (or more) from current levels by year-end 2022. That's for the South East, where prices are way out of whack with wages. For cheaper areas, which have been languishing for years, I don't even have a guess.

I am basically going with the scenario of "It's now just to big to fail".

Any slight threat then up the immigration numbers(still have HK coming) or even relax lending if that's even possible now, or maybe a 50 year mortgage?

One thing covid has taught me, houses must not fall under any circumstances, I thought I understood UK economics on a basic level but I 100% don't

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28 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

I'm thinking a crack-up boom in almost everything for the first half of the year, with houses carried along in the up-draft, but perhaps not crazily so. If David Hunter's economic bust does indeed materialise in 2022, that will be a credit event, so the housing market should be hit hard. My guess, based on no analysis or historical correlations, would be 5% up by the middle of the year, but down 10% (or more) from current levels by year-end 2022. That's for the South East, where prices are way out of whack with wages. For cheaper areas, which have been languishing for years, I don't even have a guess.

In terms of flow, housing has died a death since Sep/SD end.

 

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Bobthebuilder
10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

In terms of flow, housing has died a death since Sep/SD end.

 

I keep an eye on Dorset, 314 square miles of the most rural part, almost on a daily basis. I usually see around 6 to 20 properties added per day. Most of those are new listings (not that I believe all new listings are really new listed) but, I see more reduced than going SSTC recently.

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I'm sure this was covered on another thread.

Would be amazed if there is a fall, but ultimately the aggregated stat is meaningless.

I would bet that the headline number will be a low positive single digit number which hides that the North gains and the South loses. That number may become higher if they can pull a stunt like 'remedial work adjusted' sales figures out of their backsides as many flats values have declined by the value of such works.

This presents the government with the best outcome as it can be spun many ways; house prices can be said to be increasing but not unsustainably, levelling up is working, housing is becoming more affordable in real terms (as it is less than inflation). For the southerners that complain about their decreased values it can be pointed out that average prices in the whole country is increasing, so just bad luck for them, and they had it the other way around a decade back.

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