Property predictions 2022

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

You look at social housing these days, just walk into wherever it is you get these places and say "I am working low paid and married to my wife and want to start a family and can I have a council house" and they will laugh you out of the building, social housing is solely for little girls just out of school without education with children from unknown fathers these days.

I know so many stories where workers after 25 years work attempted because of adversity in their lives to use the welfare scheme they had paid into for 25 plus years and were met with a nightmare because they never had the killer instinct to ponce the money they rightly deserves and yet a immigrant who hate this country can somehow manage to stay on welfare for decades.

Read that and thought of you and this, oh the irony, Diesel fumes, VC9s and Hounslow, nothing changes.

 

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, haroldshand said:

no apologies and so many lived fucked because of their 100% wrong prediction

Free advice always comes with a 100% money back garauntee!

2 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Central Portugal close to Lisbon is just what I need right now and will help me out with tax as well

I have looked at the NHR scheme, just in case my DH/DB inspired BK investments set me up for retirement. Just out of interest, why central portugal over the algarve?

2 hours ago, haroldshand said:

if like me you never looked at porn(still don't)  because looking at hard porn was as far as I was concerned was once illegal and I still cannot remember a law that made it OK, but Millions know search these sites. 

The relevant statutory law (Obscene Publications Act) used broad definitions such as obscene, and then government agencies and case law interpreted that a certain way. This is similar to the term reasonable that appears throughout British law, but is just circular reference to whatever a reasonable man would consider reasonable.

As late as the 1990s just a naked man and woman photographed stood next to each other would be Obscene, unless there was some artistic or educational element. Some pornographers would make content maskerading as artists anatomy guides or documenting naturism etc to exploit such loopholes. Also there was the Isle of Skye test (iirc) where if a fella's unit depicted was closer to upright than the angle formed between said island and Britain, then it was obscene. At some point this all became ridiculous in the face of internet access to far better stuff, and the interpretations were revised. I don't think statutes were even changed, just guidance to police and prosecution.

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Without going into your particular circumstances they are more likely to push payment of debt rather than advance you anymore.

Handlesbanken had a sit down with me recently, they ate quite conservative, they made it clear they were happy to advance quite a lot more if I wanted to do some of the otherthings I discussed with them. I imagine other lenders would be even more game. 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Handlesbanken had a sit down with me recently, they ate quite conservative, they made it clear they were happy to advance quite a lot more if I wanted to do some of the otherthings I discussed with them. I imagine other lenders would be even more game. 

Why we don’t publish mortgage interest rates

We work with every customer individually, taking into account their needs, and helping with a range of products and services. As part of this, we agree with each customer an individual tariff that reflects a relationship of mutual benefit.

Handelsbanken rates     

• Handelsbanken's current Standard Variable Rate* (HSVR) is 4.00%   
• Handelsbanken's Base Rate* is 1.00%

Please note these are purely reference rates. Your individual mortgage interest rate and term is agreed with your branch.      

*The Handelsbanken Standard Variable Rate and Handelsbanken Base Rate are based on the bank’s true cost of funding, rather than tracking the Bank of England Base Rate.

[MrXxxx]

19 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I have heard every reason  under the sun why property prices will collapse, the likes of ToS have been even worse and been around two decades.

Yes it's mad and you talk "logic" and yes interest rates should(and I hope) will rise and inflation will go mad and yes to this that and the other and yet I am still following my plan and living abroad for a few years rather than waiting for a property crash that I willing to bet will not happen.

Brilliant if you are right, but hand on heart I don't even give it a 10% hope in the next three years at least

..and this is the conclusion I am moving towards...having a) waited for the fabled property crash for about the last 15 years, and b) see the standard of living/social structure/NHS decline rapidly in the last 5 years, I am beginning to believe that the 'grass is actually greener' elsewhere.

[With a crooked smile]

29 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Why we don’t publish mortgage interest rates

We work with every customer individually, taking into account their needs, and helping with a range of products and services. As part of this, we agree with each customer an individual tariff that reflects a relationship of mutual benefit.

Handelsbanken rates     

• Handelsbanken's current Standard Variable Rate* (HSVR) is 4.00%   
• Handelsbanken's Base Rate* is 1.00%

Please note these are purely reference rates. Your individual mortgage interest rate and term is agreed with your branch.      

*The Handelsbanken Standard Variable Rate and Handelsbanken Base Rate are based on the bank’s true cost of funding, rather than tracking the Bank of England Base Rate.

For info I'm paying less and on a fix with them

[eek]

17 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

For info I'm paying less and on a fix with them

If you took at a fix rate even 3 months ago Handelsbanken's rates were lower. 

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

..and this is the conclusion I am moving towards...having a) waited for the fabled property crash for about the last 15 years, and b) see the standard of living/social structure/NHS decline rapidly in the last 5 years, I am beginning to believe that the 'grass is actually greener' elsewhere.

I think maybe you live in that school where so many do/did including myself where you avoided living on the never never, you stuck a johnny on and only had kids when planned and when you knew you could afford it, and the guy that was always tapping his mates up for a Tenner and constantly held loads of debt because he wanted it all today. You thought they would come a cropper one day and you would be laughing as your day finally arrived..

Mmmm

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

I have looked at the NHR scheme, just in case my DH/DB inspired BK investments set me up for retirement. Just out of interest, why central portugal over the algarve?

Not just because it is far cheaper which it is, but I am more of outdoors type and like hiking, outdoor swimming, cycling etc and do not want to be around British tacky tourists.

Plus the culture, food and people above all else are so friendly and love the English, but I might spend the first half/full year in Madeira first

[RJT1979]

22 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Well, if I only have to supply the bubbly, I would consider that I got off lightly.

My eyes have been opened today, the market is obviously not what it was last time I looked in anger.

When I put our figures in the mortgage calculator, £40k deposit gave us a mortgage offer of £106K, so I upped the deposit to £100k, the mortgage offer went up to £111K. Fucked I tell thee, proper fucked from here.

I can get max 120k off 31k with hundreds of 1000s deposit. Banks don't care. They don't care that I'm set to inherit over 1m either. Although looks like nw may offer 139k lol

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I can get max 120k off 31k with hundreds of 1000s deposit. Banks don't care. They don't care that I'm set to inherit over 1m either. Although looks like nw may offer 139k lol

These last 24 hours has been a game changer for me, I have to admit that I have not really looked into buying anything since 2012 when I bought my current place.

I have read @spygirlposts recently about banks not wanting to lend but, took it with a pinch of salt. Had a look at nw myself today, strict rules on 2nd homes and btl, which is a good thing. Stamp duty is the other biggie, £18,000 on a place valued at £350,000. Crikes.. Council tax is another expensive ongoing cost.

F##k knows who can afford to buy all these places I see currently sat SSTC, just people swapping expensive houses with each other I guess.

Not looking good for continued house price inflation in my book.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

F##k knows who can afford to buy all these places I see currently sat SSTC, just people swapping expensive houses with each other I guess.

Round me its all HK Chinese.

[RJT1979]

I wonder what the ltv average is of all mortgaged property in the UK. Better stat than total debt outstanding against mcap of all UK property 

[spygirl]

19 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

These last 24 hours has been a game changer for me, I have to admit that I have not really looked into buying anything since 2012 when I bought my current place.

I have read @spygirlposts recently about banks not wanting to lend but, took it with a pinch of salt. Had a look at nw myself today, strict rules on 2nd homes and btl, which is a good thing. Stamp duty is the other biggie, £18,000 on a place valued at £350,000. Crikes.. Council tax is another expensive ongoing cost.

F##k knows who can afford to buy all these places I see currently sat SSTC, just people swapping expensive houses with each other I guess.

Not looking good for continued house price inflation in my book.

Oh banks want to lend.

However zirp has blown up their lending margins.

And the regulations means they are constrained I.e they 'compete' on mortgages by being the slackest/gormless lender anymore.

The fewer mortgages sold, the more expensive mortgages become.

You only have to walk around your local town and see how many branches gave been sold and how many ex bank workers there are to see how painful and destructive the fall out from 2008 has been for banks and their employees.

My local towns both and several banks up to 2008. Not any more.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

I predict someone is going to start another thread about this.

[Wight Flight]

People always blame 'greedy' landlords for pushing up prices.

I disagree. It is the fact that a landlord will accept a 3% yield that has done the damage. Had they stuck to the 10% of old, they wouldn't have bid up prices anything like as much.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, RJT1979 said:

I can get max 120k off 31k with hundreds of 1000s deposit. Banks don't care. They don't care that I'm set to inherit over 1m either. Although looks like nw may offer 139k lol

Why would they? Theres no 100% guarantee of that occuring.

Stuff goes wrong.

Planning on individuals dying is a fools game.

[spygirl]

9 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

People always blame 'greedy' landlords for pushing up prices.

I disagree. It is the fact that a landlord will accept a 3% yield that has done the damage. Had they stuck to the 10% of old, they wouldn't have bid up prices anything like as much.

And a max of 50% mortgage, commercial rates, repaid over 10-15 years.

[Andersen]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

People always blame 'greedy' landlords for pushing up prices.

I disagree. It is the fact that a landlord will accept a 3% yield that has done the damage. Had they stuck to the 10% of old, they wouldn't have bid up prices anything like as much.

It's the first time I've heard that many of the current problems have been caused by LL's being *less* greedy than they could have been  It's still the LL's fault tho' 

Footnote: I'm tempted to agree with you, many LL's are struggling to break even which makes you wonder why they're in the game (or why they haven't exited already)

[AlfredTheLittle]

21 minutes ago, Andersen said:

 

Footnote: I'm tempted to agree with you, many LL's are struggling to break even which makes you wonder why they're in the game (or why they haven't exited already)

Capital gains. Most of them aren't fussed whether they make a profit on the rent, the house is their savings pot, property only ever goes up, and cgt at 18/28% of the gain is lower than income tax

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Why would they? Theres no 100% guarantee of that occuring.

Stuff goes wrong.

Planning on individuals dying is a fools game.

Yeah I know. But 1m is a minimum if everything goes wrong 😆 

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Self certs on mass were probably the one single biggest crimes in the UK that were openly allowed to happen

The people self certing were predominantly buying BTL, hence the epic rise of BTL in the late 90s to 2008.

But i could go out tomorrow with a 25% deposit and but a £350,000 BTL, with the banks loaning me the rest ... thus self cert is no called a BTL mortgage.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

People always blame 'greedy' landlords for pushing up prices.

I disagree. It is the fact that a landlord will accept a 3% yield that has done the damage. Had they stuck to the 10% of old, they wouldn't have bid up prices anything like as much.

Those 2 sentences are a contradiction.

People blame landlords because they outbid would be owner occupiers and within weeks the same house would be back on RM, but in the rental section.

But greedy, nation wrecking, parasitic cunts is more appropriate than just "greedy" ... the ones buying after 2009 got lucky with Funding For Lending, Term Funding Scheme to keep their mortgage rates down, as prices were on the cliff edge just before these scams were announced by Gidiot and Carney ......and then they were gifted vast amounts HPI thanks to Help to Sell.

Not that any landlord is bright enough, or has the self awareness to figure out this vile kind of socialism is what has gifted them other peoples money over the last decade.

[spygirl]

13 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The people self certing were predominantly buying BTL, hence the epic rise of BTL in the late 90s to 2008.

But i could go out tomorrow with a 25% deposit and a £350,000 BTL, and the banks would loan me the rest ... thus self cert is no called a BTL mortgage.

Io btl are commercial loans.

No certification required; commercial lending is big boy rules.

If the bank is daft enough to lend and the LL is daft enough to take on a commercial loan then so be it.

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

People always blame 'greedy' landlords for pushing up prices.

I disagree. It is the fact that a landlord will accept a 3% yield that has done the damage. Had they stuck to the 10% of old, they wouldn't have bid up prices anything like as much.

 

5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Those 2 sentences are a contradiction.

People blame landlords because they outbid would be owner occupiers and within weeks the same house would be back on RM, but in the rental section.

But greedy, nation wrecking, parasitic cunts is more appropriate than just "greedy" ... the ones buying after 2009 got lucky with Funding For Lending, Term Funding Scheme to keep their mortgage rates down, as prices were on the cliff edge just before these scams were announced by Gidiot and Carney ......and then they were gifted vast amounts HPI thanks to Help to Sell.

Not that any landlord is bright enough, or has the self awareness to figure out this vile kind of socialism is what has gifted them other peoples money over the last decade.

Hes right.

At sub 10% yields a LL will be putting cash into the property.