How many are you counting on a house price crash?

[haroldshand]

Be honest.

I was lured over here from TOS because a handful of DOSBOD members picked up on my changing views and cynical attitude towards what I believe became an echo chamber and cult and taled me over to here. It's clear a few would welcome one on here and I think it would be more beneficial  for the country as a whole, but I also find it a dangerous hope where you put all your eggs in the same basket like I am starting to suspect with some.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Be honest.

I was lured over here from TOS because a handful of DOSBOD members picked up on my changing views and cynical attitude towards what I believe became an echo chamber and cult and taled me over to here. It's clear a few would welcome one on here and I think it would be more beneficial  for the country as a whole, but I also find it a dangerous hope where you put all your eggs in the same basket like I am starting to suspect with some.

You'd be a fool to ever put your eggs in one basket 

 

Most of the country has already though. 

 

Crash, no crash, if you follow DB you'll know he thinks the £ is toast and moving forward housing will be hammered 

 

All those people with 1 egg in 1 basket are screwed. 

 

 

[AWW]

I'm not "counting" on one, I just think it's already started.

It's just a case now of how low can it go. Or rather, how high can IRs go.

Actually, how low will the govt let it go - I don't think they'll be stepping in. The pound can't take another round of "support", and high house prices are no longer a vote winner, even for the Tories.

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm not "counting" on one, I just think it's already started.

It's just a case now of how low can it go. Or rather, how high can IRs go.

Actually, how low will the govt let it go - I don't think they'll be stepping in. The pound can't take another round of "support", and high house prices are no longer a vote winner, even for the Tories.

Have a look at the latest property lion data I knocked out today....Cambridgeshire....falling hard.  It did in 2008.

 

Most be all those HKers waiting for a better price 

 

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

You'd be a fool to ever put your eggs in one basket 

 

Most of the country has already though. 

 

Crash, no crash, if you follow DB you'll know he thinks the £ is toast and moving forward housing will be hammered 

 

All those people with 1 egg in 1 basket are screwed. 

 

 

I have said it for longer than anyone else on here that the £ is toast, yes I agree and yes I think the odds are slightly higher  that property will correct.

But FFS what I have learnt in several years is to be prepared for anything where the property market is involved

[haroldshand]

41 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm not "counting" on one, I just think it's already started.

It's just a case now of how low can it go. Or rather, how high can IRs go.

Actually, how low will the govt let it go - I don't think they'll be stepping in. The pound can't take another round of "support", and high house prices are no longer a vote winner, even for the Tories.

Well I am more in the camp of a lot of others on here and not seen one grain of evidence as of yet

[haroldshand]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have a look at the latest property lion data I knocked out today....Cambridgeshire....falling hard.  It did in 2008.

 

Most be all those HKers waiting for a better price 

 

I am in Cambridgeshire now and in Cambridge itself and south of it a couple of times per week, I am sorry but there is no signs even remotely of a crash here

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Be honest.

I was lured over here from TOS because a handful of DOSBOD members picked up on my changing views and cynical attitude towards what I believe became an echo chamber and cult and taled me over to here. It's clear a few would welcome one on here and I think it would be more beneficial  for the country as a whole, but I also find it a dangerous hope where you put all your eggs in the same basket like I am starting to suspect with some.

Lured, as in a trap? Please tell us more,

[AWW]

40 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Well I am more in the camp of a lot of others on here and not seen one grain of evidence as of yet

I suppose it depends where you look. There is no "UK housing market".
I'm in north London and good places aren't shifting until reductions have knocked 10-15% off the original asking price. Bad places aren't shifting at all.

It's going to take a few months before Land Registry reflects it.

[tank]

Given the extremely high levels of post Brexit immigration - 1.2 million visas issued by this Tory government in the last 12 months - I can't see there being much more than a very mild correction at best in the UK.

Property and associated debt is the UK economy, so the government and Bank of England will throw the kitchen sink at it.  

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Well I am more in the camp of a lot of others on here and not seen one grain of evidence as of yet

Apart from Property Lion showing asking prices fall 3.5% in 2 months and listings surging

Not one, are you sure ?

Mortgage rates above 5%, not one, are you sure ?

Are you not looking ?

[HousePriceMania]

42 minutes ago, tank said:

Given the extremely high levels of post Brexit immigration - 1.2 million visas issued by this Tory government in the last 12 months - I can't see there being much more than a very mild correction at best in the UK.

Property and associated debt is the UK economy, so the government and Bank of England will throw the kitchen sink at it.  

At what, helping poor immigrants buy houses that they can't afford ?

Sub-prime on steroids ?

We'll see 7% IRs soon enough, then maybe 10.

Just in time for those 2 year fixes to come off.

All manias come to an end, like it or not.

This one could wipe out the UK, then what, Nazi Germany ?

Best let house prices fall me thinks

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Lured, as in a trap? Please tell us more,

Lured as in...came here because everyone left TOS and he felt lonely 

Hell, the trolls on tos were proved to be right...till now, but everything poeople said would happen about inflation, collapse of the £, pensions destroyed etc etc etc, is coming true.

[Frank Hovis]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Apart from Property Lion showing asking prices fall 3.5% in 2 months and listings surging

Not one, are you sure ?

Mortgage rates above 5%, not one, are you sure ?

Are you not looking ?

 

Well I hope you're right.

I don't know about "counting on" at any time; even when I was convinced that a huge crash was imminent from about 2007. And I see the dips then as a short-lived correction.

Expecting a crash gave me an additional reason not to buy somewhere but there were always other more important personal reasons. When I did buy it was because of personal reasons rather than trying to time the market.

 

I would hope that nobody is reliant upon a crash, partly because they will have waited so long that it will have adversely affected their lives and partly because the only crash I experienced, in London, took eight years to bottom out in 1996 and it didn't exactly start booming from that point.

I am, touch wood, well placed to take major advantage of a big crash and buy somewhere really nice but if it doesn't happen then I will do the same but at a later date.

[tank]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

At what, helping poor immigrants buy houses that they can't afford ?

Sub-prime on steroids ?

We'll see 7% IRs soon enough, then maybe 10.

Just in time for those 2 year fixes to come off.

All manias come to an end, like it or not.

This one could wipe out the UK, then what, Nazi Germany ?

Best let house prices fall me thinks

Most of the 1.2 million new arrivals will be renting. Next year's 1.2m will be renting too and so on.

Rents = GDP. 

This level of population growth is the new norm for the next few years before they ramp it again.

It was 150K a year net in 1999, then over 300K net following the EU enlargement in 2005, then ramped again to over 500K under the Tories by 2012-14 and now over 1 million net under the same mob in 2022. Roughly doubling every 6-8 years. 

The UK rentier economy needs more warm bodies like a junkie needs more bags. There is no point applying a 1970s macro roadmap to it like stocks, nor comparing it to other periods when immigration was lower. The UK housing market is heading in one direction long term because it is the UK economy. If a crash occurred, we'd be experiencing full on depression level conditions akin to the 1930s. 

[Calcutta]

Not reliant, but I've told the kids I shall sort us our own place around next Xmas.. Currently have about 70% of asking prices in cash. 

If there's a melt up that'll go to about 90%.

If silver goes on a run that'll go to about 90%

If the FTSE crashes back to it's covid lows I shall pile into a tracker and ride it till I'm at 100%.

If there's a decent drop in asking prices for the flats I want then I may be able to buy for cash straight away. 

If all else fails I've signed a full time contract at work and by next Xmas will be able to get a small mortgage for any shortfall. 

As long as whatever tptb do doesn't double prices in the next year then I should be alright. Not counting that out tho. 

[Axeman123]

20 minutes ago, tank said:

This level of population growth is the new norm for the next few years before they ramp it again.

I will take the opposite side to you on that.

People aren't coming here for the climate or culture. Most of the dingy wankers etc are single young men, who would qualify for bugger all in benefits in terms of cash that they could send home. Migrants are coming for the shadow economy, and in a recession that will shrink. Even the families that get every benefit going would rather be in bongo-bongo if it wasn't for the top-up income available on the side.

[RWJ]

Don't care personally.  Although I lurked on the ToS for years I didn't go with the consensus, instead I bought 11 years ago and I'm now in a position to pay off the capital when my current fix ends in January.  In hindsight, not buying would have been a terrible decision back then.

I would like to see leveraged speculators / amateur landlords, who mostly consider themselves financial geniuses for simply swimming with the tide, get their arses handed to them.  And I would like to see the younger generations have a fair shot at owning.

Bring it on.

[tank]

18 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I will take the opposite side to you on that.

People aren't coming here for the climate or culture. Most of the dingy wankers etc are single young men, who would qualify for bugger all in benefits in terms of cash that they could send home. Migrants are coming for the shadow economy, and in a recession that will shrink. Even the families that get every benefit going would rather be in bongo-bongo if it wasn't for the top-up income available on the side.

The dinghy brigade in the channel are a distraction. Tiny numbers in the whole scheme of things.

The 1.2 million I refer to are perfectly legal economic migrants with visas issued by the Home Office in the last year alone.

It is yet another doubling of our official net immigration intake and this has occured every 6 to 8 years since the late 1990s.

There are no shortage of people from the developing world who want to live in the UK. Swapping a slum in Bangalore with clean running water, electricity and so on is enticing. Add in potential access to the UK welfare and health systems and it becomes a huge step up in life.

It's why the so called 'libertarian' faction of the Tory Party wanted Brexit. They want to import in a new, cheaper, pliable workforce to replace the 'lazy' indigenous one.  

[haroldshand]

7 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Lured, as in a trap? Please tell us more,

I was posting on TOS just a few years back now and was convinced the housing market was f****d(I still do) , but then started looking at other data and then coming to the conclusion that the housing could still hold up or even better.

So I started to post about that along with a few others and does not take long to realise that TOS does not like it I then got a few private message to jump ship with a few other rebels, that's it

[Wight Flight]

I think HMOs have a key part to play.

They are the absolute ceiling of how much you can milk a house, and they have a ceiling on the rent they can charge.

A LL wanting to buy a four bed house to make it a 5 bed HMO will always outbid an owner occupier.

We don't really have them yet - we are still in the old fashioned flatmate system.

I don't, therefore, think we are in crash territory here yet. Other places may be.

[haroldshand]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Apart from Property Lion showing asking prices fall 3.5% in 2 months and listings surging

Not one, are you sure ?

Mortgage rates above 5%, not one, are you sure ?

Are you not looking ?

I suppose not so much in depth these days as I am not as bothered as I used to be.

I work on the premise that when I physically see a house/s valued at say £450,000 and it becomes clear they are now £400,000 or less and still not selling then maybe I will join the party. I remember this is why I rarely post on TOS these days, several years ago  we were mocked for not embracing any obscure data other than  reports that actually showed fucking cheaper house that were never there.

I think they called non believers sheeple as far back as 20 years ago now as they fired off their endless "proof" and banned the pro housing lobby as "trolls and sheeple"

Seriously this is not a dig, just reporting facts and what did happen and is actually happening and yes you might be right and things will turn... MIGHT

[haroldshand]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

At what, helping poor immigrants buy houses that they can't afford ?

See the argument is far more complicated than you would suggest and that is why so many question the house crash theory. Yes you point out a factual and correct fact and miss out the vital information which is those immigrants allowed in and ignoring the Dinghy ones there are 100,000's many of which bring nothing in the way of skills to the UK and are no use to man nor beast.

But what they do have in abundance is helpful left wing activists/lawyers(apart from biggest political parties) and a system where people with money can buy those properties as rentals  and get the tax payer to pay for it, I think housing benefit alone is now £40 Billion per year.

Yes you are correct they have no money but many don't need it and won't need it as they then start a breeding frenzy where in a few more years they will be moved into even bigger free homes

 

[GTM]

I could scrape together enough to buy the house we are renting. However the yearly dividend income exceeds the yearly rent. Security of tenure would be nice, though I was in the last place for 6 years and the current place for 2, but until something changes dramatically, I won't be changing anything.

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, tank said:

Most of the 1.2 million new arrivals will be renting. Next year's 1.2m will be renting too and so on.

Rents = GDP. 

This level of population growth is the new norm for the next few years before they ramp it again.

It was 150K a year net in 1999, then over 300K net following the EU enlargement in 2005, then ramped again to over 500K under the Tories by 2012-14 and now over 1 million net under the same mob in 2022. Roughly doubling every 6-8 years. 

The UK rentier economy needs more warm bodies like a junkie needs more bags. There is no point applying a 1970s macro roadmap to it like stocks, nor comparing it to other periods when immigration was lower. The UK housing market is heading in one direction long term because it is the UK economy. If a crash occurred, we'd be experiencing full on depression level conditions akin to the 1930s. 

Yes my point as well.

There are huge political decisions being made and have already been made and we serfs do not even have the slightest input apart from the illusion of 5 yearly general elections. Just one example is who the fuck in this country want's 100,000's of immigrants flooding into the UK yearly and yet it continues to happen.

Oh yes someone is making vast sums of money from it and they will also be people(the elite 1%) who will never have to get up close and personal to the reality of thousands of savages now living in your neighbourhood and destroying old communities.